Tropical Storm BERTHA

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TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008
500 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2008
 
BERTHA IS FINALLY...TRULY ON THE MOVE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS NOW 335/7.  THE CONVECTION HAS ALSO PERKED UP A BIT
WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS...EVEN IN THE SHORT TIME SINCE THE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE MADE AT 06Z...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
REMAINS ON THE HIGH END OF THOSE ESTIMATES AT 55 KT.  RADAR IMAGERY
FROM BERMUDA SHOWS THAT OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA HAVE BEGUN PASSING
OVER THAT ISLAND...AND THE PRIMARY BAND OF CONVECTION THAT WRAPS
AROUND FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER IS NOT FAR
OFFSHORE.  IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER OF BERTHA WILL PASS VERY
CLOSE TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA LATER TODAY...CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THAT ISLAND.  GIVEN THE SPRAWLING
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN STRENGTH DO NOT
APPEAR LIKELY TODAY.  THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS ALSO SUGGESTS
LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE GFDL AND
HWRF STILL FORECAST BERTHA TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS.

BERTHA HAS MADE NORTHWARD PROGRESS FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...AND THE TRACK HAS BEEN SPED UP A LITTLE THROUGH 48
HOURS.  ONCE BERTHA ROUNDS THE RIDGE CURRENTLY TO ITS EAST AND
STARTS HEADING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...THE
STEERING MECHANISMS BECOME COMPLICATED DUE TO A CUTOFF LOW FORECAST
TO APPROACH BERTHA FROM THE EAST.  THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO
CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS COULD RESULT IN AN UNDULATING BUT GENERALLY
EASTWARD TRACK OF BERTHA AS INDICATED BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS.  AS IN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...THE NEW TRACK
INCLUDES THESE UNDULATIONS...BUT SMOOTHS THROUGH THEM JUST A
LITTLE.  THE NEW FIVE-DAY POINT HAS ALSO BEEN SPED UP TOWARD THE
MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SUGGESTS BERTHA WILL ACCELERATE OVER THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC A LITTLE MORE THAN FORECAST IN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0900Z 31.5N  63.6W    55 KT
 12HR VT     14/1800Z 32.6N  63.9W    55 KT
 24HR VT     15/0600Z 34.2N  63.5W    60 KT
 36HR VT     15/1800Z 35.8N  62.6W    55 KT
 48HR VT     16/0600Z 36.4N  61.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     17/0600Z 35.0N  59.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     18/0600Z 34.5N  55.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     19/0600Z 37.5N  51.0W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 
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