AXUS74 KMAF 251546
DGTMAF

NMC015-025-TXC003-033-043-103-109-115-135-165-173-227-243-301-317-
329-335-371-377-383-389-415-443-461-475-495-271600-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1046 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2008

...SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT IMPROVEMENT ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...

BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FELL ACROSS MOST OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST AND MUCH OF SEPTEMBER. THE REMNANTS
OF EDOUARD...A FEW COLD FRONTS AND THE REMNANTS OF LOWELL WERE THE
MAIN CULPRITS FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

ON AUGUST 2...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BROUGHT HEAVY
RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND THE UPPER TRANS PECOS.
ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVED UP TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL WITH MOST AREAS
RECEIVING HALF AN INCH OR LESS.

ON AUGUST 7 AND 8...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM EDOUARD MOVED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. MOST AREAS RECEIVED LITTLE
RAINFALL FROM EDOUARD WITH SOME AREAS OF THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN
APPROACHING ONE INCH TOTALS.

ON AUGUST 12 AND 13...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVED INTO WEST TEXAS
BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE PERMIAN BASIN...TRANS PECOS AND THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN
RECEIVED UP TO TWO AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL.

ON AUGUST 17 TO 20...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER COLORADO SLOWLY MOVED
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. HEAVY RAINFALL FELL OVER THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS...PERMIAN BASIN AND THE UPPER TRANS PECOS. ONE TO
TWO INCH TOTALS WERE COMMON DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

ON SEPTEMBER 2...A COLD FRONT MOVED INTO WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOST AREAS
RECEIVED LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH WHILE PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND THE LOWER TRANS PECOS ACCUMULATED UP TO ONE AND A HALF
INCHES OF RAINFALL.

ON SEPTEMBER 7...DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ONE INCH AMOUNTS WERE COMMON OVER THE UPPER TRANS
PECOS...SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF WEST
TEXAS.

ON SEPTEMBER 8 TO 12...A COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF LOWELL MOVED INTO WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO BRINGING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOST AREAS ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO RECEIVED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED AREAS
REPORTING OVER 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID SEPTEMBER 23 SHOWED IMPROVEMENT
ACROSS MOST AREAS OF WEST TEXAS. MUCH OF THE AREA IS NO LONGER
EXPERIENCING DROUGHT CONDITIONS INCLUDING THE BIG BEND REGION...DAVIS
MOUNTAINS....MUCH OF THE TRANS PECOS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO PLAINS. ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS (D0) WERE OCCURRING FROM
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS EAST INTO THE PERMIAN
BASIN. MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) WAS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN WHILE A SMALL AREA OF
SEVERE DROUGHT (D2) REMAINED OVER THE CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.
THE FIRE WEATHER SEASON ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
HAS COME TO AND END. OVERALL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED
TO IMPROVE AS CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE FIRE WEATHER SEASON IN WEST TEXAS
GENERALLY CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW ACTIVITY THROUGH SEPTEMBER. ALTHOUGH
A LONGER THAN NORMAL SEASON OCCURRED THIS YEAR...GREEN UP HAS OCCURRED
ACROSS MOST AREAS OF WEST TEXAS AND FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED.
MOST OF THE COUNTIES IN THE AREA ARE NO LONGER UNDER BURN BANS. THE
ONLY COUNTIES THAT ARE STILL UNDER BURN BANS INCLUDE...MARTIN...REEVES...
WARD...TERRELL AND UPTON.

THE SEPTEMBER KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWS THAT VALUES
ACROSS THE AREA RANGE FROM 0-200 OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...BIG BEND
AND NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN TO 400-500 OVER THE CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN
AND UPPER TRANS PECOS.  THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A
SYSTEM FOR RELATING CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR. IT IS A NUMERICAL INDEX
CALCULATED DAILY FOR EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING
THE SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM 0 TO 800...WITH 0
REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.  NOTE
THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM DAY TO DAY AS WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED BY 20 FOOT WINDSPEEDS GREATER THAN 20 MPH
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LESS THAN 15 PERCENT. WHEN THESE
CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED OR MET...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AS APPROPRIATE.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
ACCORDING TO THE SEPTEMBER 17 TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED
BY THE TEXAS A AND M AGRICULTURAL PROGRAM...THE FOLLOWING
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS WERE NOTED ACROSS WEST TEXAS...LOCAL FLOODING
WAS REPORTED IN AREAS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...FROM WEST OF PRESIDIO
TO EAST OF LAJITATS AND BEYOND. MOST OF THE FLOODING ALONG THE RIVER
WAS DUE TO WATER RELEASED FROM A DAM IN MEXICO. THE RIVER WAS
EXPECTED TO RISE 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THERE WERE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE FROM 1
INCH TO 11 INCHES. PECAN NUT DEVELOPMENT WAS IN THE SHELL-HARDENING
PROCESS, AND FILLING WAS 75 PERCENT COMPLETE. COTTON WAS AFFECTED BY
TOO MUCH RAIN. COTTON AND PECANS NEED MORE WARM AND SUNNY DAYS TO
MATURE TO BEST QUALITY. THE FIFTH CUTTING OF ALFALFA WAS AFFECTED
BY THE RAINS. CORN WAS IN THE TASSELING STAGE. SORGHUM FIELDS
CONTINUED TO MATURE. LATE GRAIN SORGHUM HAS A CHANCE TO MAKE FAIR
YIELDS THANKS TO THE RECENT RAINS.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) OUTLOOKS INDICATE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 14
DAYS. IT IS ALSO SHOWING BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE SAME
PERIOD. IN ADDITION...CPC CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN. THIS IS LIKELY TAKING
INTO CONSIDERATION THE CONTINUATION OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RAINY
SEASON ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
WHILE THE FORECAST AND HYDROLOGIC SERVICES AREA (HSA) CONTINUE UNDER
DROUGHT CONDITIONS...NO KNOWN WATER RESTRICTIONS OR ADVISORIES ARE
KNOWN ACROSS THE AREA.  PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE HIGH ACROSS MOST
OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO DURING THE MONTHS OF AUGUST
AND SEPTEMBER. OVER THE PAST TWO MONTHS...MANY AREAS HAVE RECEIVED
DROUGHT DENTING RAINFALL AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
ALLEVIATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...

                                 POOL      24-HR    % CONSERVATION
                                  TDY        CHG.         CAPACITY


LAKE JB THOMAS                  2219.28     0.00          11
LAKE COLORADO CITY              2064.45    -0.02          73
CHAMPION CREEK RESERVOIR        2050.90     0.02          23
NATURAL DAM SALT LAKE           2447.32     0.00          49
MOSS CREEK LAKE                 2319.44     0.08          35
BRANTLEY RES...CARLSBAD         3253.43    -0.17          85
LAKE AVALON - 3N CARLSBAD           +        +             +
RED BLUFF DAM                   2808.80    -0.03          21

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN AREA CONDITIONS.


&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

OUR LOCAL HYDROLOGY WEB PAGE...
HTTP://WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/MAF/DROUGHT
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/
OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST...
HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/
NWS AHPS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/
USGS...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
USACE...HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION...
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE IBWC...THE USDA...STATE AND
REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION
CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS
AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2500 CHALLENGER DRIVE
MIDLAND TEXAS  79706
PHONE: 432.563.5006

$$