TheThe U.S. welcomed 51.1 million total international visitors in 2006, up four percent from 2005. The strongest growth was realized in the fourth quarter, up nine percent. A total of 56 markets set arrival records in 2006, seven of which are in the top 20 countries.

Total international arrivals (non-resident travelers originating overseas, Canada and Mexico) to the U.S. have registered nine successive months of positive growth starting in April 2006. Arrivals were down by eight percent in March 2006, an anomaly due to the shift of Easter holiday traffic (April in 2006 vs. March in 2005.) The impact of the March ‘decline’ was significant in the Overseas and Mexican markets.  Both Canada and Mexico contributed significantly to the overall growth in international arrivals in 2006.

Overseas arrivals (excluding Canada and Mexico) totaled 21.7 million in 2006, experiencing no growth compared to 2005, except among business and student travelers, which increased. Monthly contributions were negative for six of the first nine months of 2006, starting in February, however the fourth quarter arrivals totaled 5.5 million, up three percent, the first measurable quarterly increase in 2006.  (A year over year percentage change timeline is presented in the graph below) 

Overseas travel to the U.S. increased from non-Visa Waiver countries in general (described more below) and from Eastern Europe, Middle East, Oceania, South America and the Caribbean in 2006. Visitation from Western Europe and Asia, accounting for nearly three-quarters of all overseas arrivals, were in decline throughout the year.
 
Western European arrivals totaled 9.7 million, down two percent in 2006. Monthly arrivals were down in eight of the 12 months. The impact from the U.K., Germany and France (see country synopsis, below), which account for two-thirds of the arrivals from the region, was evident.

Asian travelers totaled 6.2 million for 2006, down one percent. Monthly arrivals were down in seven of 12 months. Japan, the major driver in this region (see country synopsis, below), declined five percent during 2006. However, gains were realized from South Korea, PRC/Hong Kong and India.

South American visitation, registering 1.9 million arrivals during 2006, was up six percent. Brazil, up eight percent, was among the stronger performers in the region (see country analysis, below). Argentina, also demonstrated solid growth, up 12 percent for the year. Venezuela, another Mercosur member, and Colombia grew eight percent and seven percent, respectively. 

Other overseas regions generally showed positive results during 2006, particularly in the fourth quarter.

Top Origination Markets:

The top 20 visitor markets, accounting for almost 90 percent of all international arrivals to the U.S. during 2006, showed mixed results, but as a group revealed a three percent increase (see chart below).

Although 2000 was the overall record year for arrivals into the U.S., only eight of the top 20 countries set individual records that year. Record arrival years range from Canada in 1991 to the PRC in 2006. 

Canada:
Canadian arrivals totaled 16 million in 2006 (31 percent of all international arrivals), an eight percent increase from 2005. Arrivals showed positive growth every month during the year, culminating in an 11 percent increase during the fourth quarter. Canadian air arrivals, totaling 5.5 million, increased by eight percent during the year. Canadian arrivals do not include day-trippers.

Canadian provinces generating the most traffic to the U.S. were Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia.
Top U.S. destination markets were New York, measured in the number of visitors, and Florida, measured in number of visitor-nights. Further data concerning 2006 Canadian arrivals will be available September 2007. Market data for 2005 arrivals will be available in latter April 2007 at this link:
http://www.tinet.ita.doc.gov/outreachpages/inbound.country_in_north_america.canada.html 

Mexico:
Total Mexican arrivals reached a record 13.4 million in 2006, up six percent from 2005. Mexico accounts for 26 percent of all international arrivals to the U.S. and has set arrival records for the last three years. Mexican arrival figures include only overnight stays, excluding day-trippers. 

Arrivals to the U.S. interior* totaled 5.8 million, up 27 percent. These travelers can be tracked on a monthly basis due to a U.S. Customs and Border Protection requirement for Mexican travelers to submit a DHS I-94 Arrival Card for ‘longer-haul’ itineraries into the U.S. This method accounts for arrivals by land/sea/air modes of travel and is currently the only monthly data available.

The notable fluctuation in March and April arrivals to the ‘interior’ (see graph), due to the Easter holiday shift, affected quarterly comparisons. For example, 1Q increased by five percent and 2Q increased by 53 percent.  March-April combined comparison disclosed an average 29 percent increase for the two month period. The U.S. Department of Commerce Mexico Travel Barometer Survey, as well as the OTTI/Global Insight, also forecasted this 2006 level of total arrivals from this market. Of total Mexican arrivals to the U.S. in 2006, 1.7 million or 13 percent of the total market arrived by air, up three percent from 2005.

 

(U.S. *Interior is north of the 40-kilometer border zone in the U.S.)

Overseas Markets

Total travel from non-Visa Waiver countries was up five percent, outperforming total travel from the 27 Visa Waiver countries, which was down three percent. Travelers from non-Visa Waiver countries are required to obtain U.S. visas before entry into the U.S, therefore it is notable that growth occurred in a segment for which there is a perceived “barrier to entry.”

Regarding mode of travel into the U.S. non-stop air declined by two percent from 2005, whereas arrivals by sea and land were up 10 percent and 55 percent, respectively. The latter category includes overseas origin travelers that stop over in Canada and Mexico before crossing into the U.S. at a land border. The average age of the traveler visiting the U.S. was 40.5 years, up slightly from 2005. Business and student travel increased by seven percent and 11 percent, respectively, but leisure travel declined two percent.

Of the 18 overseas countries, discussed below, 10 are participants in the Visa Waiver Program (VWP) and eight are non-Visa Waiver countries. Only three of the 10 VWP countries experienced visitation growth to the U.S. during 2006, however six of the eight non-VWP countries showed growth to the U.S. during the year.

United Kingdom:
U.K. visitation to the U.S. totaled 4.2 million in 2006, accounting for 43 percent of all arrivals from Western Europe. UK arrivals were down four percent (leisure declined five percent, however business and student travel were up five and six percent, respectively) exhibiting a monthly pattern of decline, in line with the forecast of the U.S. Department of Commerce U.K Travel Barometer Survey. Even with an eight percent gain in April due in part to the seasonal shift in Easter, the two months of March and April were down five percent compared with last year’s figures.

Preliminary data indicates that the growth in U.K. international travel is shifting from North America to intra-EU, Asian, Middle East and Oceania markets (Global Travel Navigator).

Japan:
Japanese visitation totaled 3.7 million for 2006, down five percent from 2005. While leisure and student travel was down seven percent and four percent, respectively, business travel was up eight percent.
(According to the U.S. Embassy in Tokyo the Government of Japan indicated while there is a shrinking pool of 18-year old Japanese students there is a trend towards university enrollments in English speaking countries, i.e. Australia and those universities capitalizing on sophisticated marketing campaigns)

Arrivals from Japan accounted for 60 percent of all Asian visitors, down from 62 percent in 2005. With the exception of growth in January and March and no change in August, arrivals have been trending downward during the year.

Peak season for Japanese outbound travel, from April through October (second and third quarters) were more negatively affected, down eight percent and six percent, respectively, than the Off-peak season.
The first and fourth quarters (Off-peak) were flat and down seven percent, respectively.

Preliminary data from Global Travel Navigator indicates that the growth in Japanese visitation is shifting from North America to intra-Asia and European markets.

The U.S. Department of Commerce has been engaged in two initiatives to help encourage travel from Japan to the U.S. These can be found at:

US-Japan Tourism Export Expansion Initiative http://www.tinet.ita.doc.gov/outreach/jpmou.html and the Promotional campaign http://tinet.ita.doc.gov/about/us_promo_campaign/Japan_Release_052505.pdf

Germany:
German visitation to the U.S. totaled 1.4 million in 2006, down two percent. Although leisure travel declined five percent, business and student travel increased nine percent and two percent, respectively. Arrivals showed positive growth during five months of the 12 months and ended the year on a positive note. March and April, normalizing for Easter, was up three percent.

The U.S. Department of Commerce German Travel Barometer projected flat to modest growth for the summer. The FIFA World Cup soccer tournament, hosted by Germany during June-July, contributed to a decline in outbound leisure travel from Germany to the U.S.

France:
Arrivals to the U.S. from France totaled 790,000 during 2006, down 10 percent from 2005. Although leisure travel was down 14 percent, business and student travel were up six percent and 11 percent, respectively. Overall this is a reversal of the arrival pattern in 2005, which was up 13 percent from the 2004. Visitation for the first three quarters of 2006 was down 15 percent, 18 percent and 11 percent, respectively. However, arrivals were up four percent in the fourth quarter, driven by a nine percent increase in December.

South Korea:
South Korea is the top origin market among the non-visa waiver program countries. Visitation totaled a record 758,000 during 2006, up eight percent from 2005. Arrivals showed positive growth every month, except June (down two percent). Quarterly visitation was up seven percent, three percent, nine percent and 11 percent, respectively. 

Australia:
Australian arrivals during 2006 totaled a record 603,000, up four percent. This follows on the strong double-digit growth in 2005, up 12 percent, and in 2004, up 28 percent from 2005. Arrivals grew by one percent in the first quarter, six percent in both the second and third quarters and one percent in the fourth quarter.

Italy:
Italian visitation totaled 533,000 for 2006, down two percent from 2005. Although leisure travel declined four percent, business and student travel increased by seven percent and eight percent, respectively. Similar to France, this was a reversal of the 2005 arrivals from Italy, which were up16 percent from the previous year, 2004. The negative pattern in 2006, down 12 percent, seven percent and five percent, respectively, for the first three quarters turned positive in the fourth quarter, up 16 percent.

Brazil:
Arrivals from Brazil, a non-visa waiver country, totaled 525,000 for 2006, up eight percent from 2005. However, growth in visitation slowed from the 2005 rate of 26 percent. Brazil accounts for 27 percent of the travelers from South America to the U.S. Quarterly changes in 2006 were up 18 percent, five percent and three percent, respectively, for the first three quarters, jumping to a solid eight percent in the fourth quarter.

PRC & Hong Kong:
Arrivals from PRC totaled a record 320,000, up 19 percent from 2005. Arrivals from Hong Kong (SAR) totaled 137,000, up two percent from 2005. As a combined entity, visitation totaled 458,000, up 13 percent for 2006. The combined growth rate for this non-visa waiver country increased consistently throughout the year; up nine percent, 13 percent, 15 percent and 14 percent, respectively for each quarter throughout the year. A vast majority of Chinese travel is business travel.

Group Leisure Travel from China

The Chinese government only permits group leisure travel to countries with which they that have bilateral agreements known as Approved Destination Status (ADS).  The U.S. does not have an ADS agreement with the Chinese government because U.S. immigration laws are not compatible with Chinese “standard terms”.  U.S. law includes individual interviews and capture of biometrics. The U.S. has no restrictions on any form of legitimate travel from China to the U.S. other than that the traveler must secure a visa.

The Department of Commerce is working through the U.S.-China Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade (JCCT) and the Strategic Economic Dialogue (SED) to explore a commercial agreement with the Chinese government to open market access and permit group leisure travel to the U.S. and the related marketing of U.S. destinations and firms.

For information on the 2004 U.S.-China Memorandum of Understanding on Tourism please see:
http://www.tinet.ita.doc.gov/outreach/index.html

Air Services Discussions

U.S. Secretary of Transportation Mary Peters will visit Beijing in April 2007, to further the dialogue with the Chinese government on Open Skies initiatives between the two countries. The U.S. has proposed phasing in the full liberalization envisioned by the 2004 Protocol for Open Skies with China.

Netherlands:
Dutch visitation to the U.S. totaled 447,000, essentially no growth in 2006 except among business travelers, up eight percent. This was an overall decline of visitation from 2005 figures, which were up six percent from 2004. Arrivals were down for the first two quarters of 2006 with declines of one percent and six percent, respectively. However, arrivals increased in the third and fourth quarters, up one percent and five percent, respectively.      

Spain:
Spanish visitation to the U.S. totaled a record 424,000 in 2006, up 10 percent from 2005. The 2006 growth rate was slightly less than the 16 percent rate in 2005. Unlike other Western European countries in 2006, visitation from Spain grew by double digits during the second, third and fourth quarters, up 17 percent, 12 percent and 17 percent, respectively.

Ireland:
Irish visitation totaled a record 414,000 in 2006, up eight percent from 2005. Although market growth was down 10 percent in the first quarter, visitation in the last three quarters was up seven percent, nine percent and 23 percent, respectively. 

India:       
Indian visitation to the U.S. reached an historic high of 407,000 in 2006, up 18 percent. India is a non-visa waiver country and supplies mainly business travel to the U.S. India has been experiencing strong economic growth fueled in part by government deregulation of several key industries such as civil aviation. The U.S. and India signed an “Open-Skies” agreement in 2005, allowing for more non-stop air service, which has undoubtedly helped this market develop. With the addition of Delta Air Lines non-stop service from New York (JFK) to Mumbai (BOM) in 2006, U.S. carrier capacity (measured by available seats) increased by 55 percent. American and Continental airlines also provide non-stop Boeing 777 service to/from India.

Venezuela:
Venezuelan arrivals to the U.S. totaled 369,000, up eight percent for 2006, completing the third consecutive year of positive growth. There was a notable fourth quarter increase of 21 percent.

Colombia:
Colombian arrivals to the U.S. totaled 348,000 in 2006, up seven percent, completing the third consecutive year of positive growth. Growth rates were up one percent, up 18 percent, down one percent and up eight percent, respectively, for the four quarters.

Taiwan (ROC):
Taiwanese arrivals totaled 300,000 for 2006, down six percent. Starting out up two percent in the first quarter, arrivals declined eight percent in the next two quarters and seven percent in the fourth quarter. According to the Monthly Statistics on Tourism report, annual 2006 edition, issued by the Tourism Bureau – Ministry of Transportation and Communications, R.O.C., outbound travel appears to have shifted to intra-Asian markets (Hong Kong, Macau and Japan)

Sweden:
Swedish arrivals to the U.S. totaled 285,000 in 2006, down two percent. First quarter arrivals were down 13 percent followed by increases of one percent in the second and third quarters, and five percent in the fourth quarter. 

Israel:
Israeli arrivals to the U.S. totaled 284,000 for 2006, showing no growth from the previous year. However, Israeli visitation accounted for over 50 percent of all arrivals from the Middle East.

Other: Record visitation was also noted from the Dominican Republic (237,000) and Denmark (185,000).

“Open-Skies”
Since 1992 the U.S. has signed Open Skies agreements with 76 countries and has been party to liberalizing pre-existing bilaterals with three others: Japan, PR China and Mexico. The following chart depicts how non-resident arrivals* to the U.S. from all air markets, including Canada and Mexico, in 2005 and 2006:

*This is a uni-dimensional look at these markets, not accounting for U.S. outbound travel or “beyond” traffic allowable under Fifth-Freedom rights. Open Skies markets as a group were up almost four percent.

The decline in non-resident air arrivals in “liberalized” markets are due to the decline in arrivals from Japan, since PRC and Mexican air arrivals were up year-over-year. Legacy markets include the UK.

TOP PORTS   January – December 2006

Non-resident arrivals to the U.S. by port-of-entry are tracked on a monthly basis. The Department of Commerce has arrival data from all world regions and 30 countries passing through more than 40 U.S. ports-of-entry. A brief analysis is presented below on the top 15 ports for overseas arrivals during 2006.

Overseas arrivals (which excludes Canada and Mexico) showed no growth for 2006. Arrivals through the top 15 ports-of-entry accounted for 84 percent of all overseas arrivals, down one percentage point from the top 15 in 2005.

The top three ports of entry (New York JFK, Miami and Los Angeles) accounted for 37 percent of all overseas arrivals, the same market share percentage registered in 2005.

Six of the top fifteen ports posted increases in arrivals for 2006, two showed no growth and seven declined year-over-year. The decline in arrivals through Los Angeles was attributable to declines in origin markets in Western Europe and Asia (Japan). Arrivals through the port of Honolulu were down primarily due to the drop in Japanese travelers. Arrivals through Orlando and Sanford, FL were down due in part to the decline in visitors from the UK. There was no year-over-year change in position among the top 15 ports.

To access top port activity, go to:
http://www.tinet.ita.doc.gov/view/m-2006-I-001/top_ports.html

Further Information:

The above analysis is a synopsis of the world regions and top markets generating arrivals to the United States.  Arrival statistics for the top markets and world regions may be accessed on-line from the monthly section of the U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Travel and Tourism Industries (OTTI) web site at:
http://www.tinet.ita.doc.gov/view/m-2006-I-001/index.html

Once on this page, there are numerous links to tables that provide arrivals for the top arrival markets to the United States.  Please review each of the links available. 

The monthly Summary of International Travel to the U.S. report has approximately 30 tables that provide data on monthly and year-to-date arrivals to the country.  The report provides data on approximately 90 countries each month and over 40 ports-of-entry. Detail is provided by world region, country and port level.  More about this program is available at: http://tinet.ita.doc.gov/research/programs/i94/index.html

If you would like to subscribe the monthly international arrival reports for 2006, please go to:
http://tinet.ita.doc.gov/research/reports/i94/index.html

Information on the Travel Trade Barometer http://travel-barometer.com/

Please visit the Commercial Service website at:  http://trade.gov/cs/index.asp
 
To learn more about the Travel and Tourism team, please go to:  http://www.buyusa.gov/eme/tra.html