FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION 8:30 A.M. EDT, Friday, October 15, 1999 CB-99-198 MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES AND SALES August 1999 Sales. The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers' shipments for August, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were estimated at $845.2 billion, up 1.3 percent (+/- 0.2%) from July and were up 9.2 percent (+/- 0.4%) from August 1998. Total durable goods were up 1.5 percent (+/- 0.3%) from July and were up 10.4 percent (+/- 0.7%) from August 1998. Total nondurable goods were up 1.1 percent (+/- 0.2%) from July and were up 8.0 percent (+/- 0.3%) from August 1998. Inventories. Manufacturers' and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of- month level of $1,118.8 billion, up 0.3 percent (+/- 0.1%) from July and up 3.2 percent (+/- 0.4%) from August 1998. Total durable goods were down 0.1 percent (+/- 0.1%) from July but were up 3.5 percent (+/- 0.5%) from August 1998. Total nondurable goods increased 0.8 percent (+/- 0.1%) from July and were up 2.8 percent (+/- 0.6%) from August 1998. Inventories/Sales Ratio. The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of August was 1.32. The August 1998 ratio was 1.40. Table 1. Estimated Monthly Sales and Inventories for Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers (In millions of dollars) Sales Inventories 1 Inventories/Sales Ratios Aug. 99 Jul. 99 Aug. 98 Aug. 99 Jul. 99 Aug. 98 Aug.99 Jul.99 Aug.98 (p) (r) (s) (p) (r) (s) Adjusted 2 Total business.............. 845,217 834,062 774,164 1,118,787 1,115,790 1,083,716 1.32 1.34 1.40 Durable........................ 436,571 430,050 395,614 678,987 679,333 655,796 1.56 1.58 1.66 Nondurable..................... 408,646 404,012 378,550 439,800 436,457 427,920 1.08 1.08 1.13 Manufacturers3.............. 362,270 357,301 336,445 464,617 465,043 468,445 1.28 1.30 1.39 Durable........................ 206,516 203,268 188,789 292,707 293,505 296,913 1.42 1.44 1.57 Nondurable..................... 155,754 154,033 147,656 171,910 171,538 171,532 1.10 1.11 1.16 Retailers................... 253,136 249,468 228,098 359,445 356,765 333,468 1.42 1.43 1.46 Durable........................ 107,104 104,850 93,522 194,787 193,482 174,636 1.82 1.85 1.87 Nondurable..................... 146,032 144,618 134,576 164,658 163,283 158,832 1.13 1.13 1.18 Merchant wholesalers 229,811 227,293 209,621 294,725 293,982 281,803 1.28 1.29 1.34 Durable........................ 122,951 121,932 113,303 191,493 192,346 184,247 1.56 1.58 1.63 Nondurable..................... 106,860 105,361 96,318 103,232 101,636 97,556 0.97 0.96 1.01 Not Adjusted Total business.............. 854,616 799,943 777,164 1,105,884 1,103,704 1,072,921 1.29 1.38 1.38 Durable........................ 441,006 402,249 394,911 671,991 674,477 650,325 1.52 1.68 1.65 Nondurable..................... 413,610 397,694 382,253 433,893 429,227 422,596 1.05 1.08 1.11 Manufacturers............... 363,931 320,282 337,377 468,000 466,515 471,596 1.29 1.46 1.40 Durable........................ 204,053 171,249 186,058 295,850 294,990 299,838 1.45 1.72 1.61 Nondurable..................... 159,878 149,033 151,319 172,150 171,525 171,758 1.08 1.15 1.14 Retailers................... 256,882 254,556 231,685 348,227 344,827 324,047 1.36 1.35 1.40 Durable........................ 110,934 109,530 95,851 184,151 184,840 165,726 1.66 1.69 1.73 Nondurable..................... 145,948 145,026 135,834 164,076 159,987 158,321 1.12 1.10 1.17 Merchant wholesalers. 233,803 225,105 208,102 289,657 292,362 277,278 1.24 1.30 1.33 Durable........................ 126,019 121,470 113,002 191,990 194,647 184,761 1.52 1.60 1.64 Nondurable..................... 107,784 103,635 95,100 97,667 97,715 92,517 0.91 0.94 0.97 See footnotes and notes at the end of Table 3. Table 2. Percent Changes for Sales and Inventories -- Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers Adjusted Not Adjusted Sales Inventories Sales Inventories Aug.99/ Jul.99/ Aug.99/ Aug.99/ Jul.99/ Aug.99/ Aug.99/ Jul.99/Aug.99/Aug.99/Jul.99/Aug.99/ Jul.99 Jun.99 Aug.98 Jul.99 Jun.99 Aug.98 Jul.99 Jun.99 Aug.98 Jul.99 Jun.99 Aug.98 Total business.............. 1.3 0.5 9.2 0.3 0.3 3.2 6.8 -8.0 10.0 0.2 0.4 3.1 Durable........................ 1.5 1.0 10.4 -0.1 0.3 3.5 9.6 -12.4 11.7 -0.4 -0.1 3.3 Nondurable..................... 1.1 0.1 8.0 0.8 0.3 2.8 4.0 -3.2 8.2 1.1 1.2 2.7 Manufacturers............... 1.4 0.7 7.7 -0.1 0.5 -0.8 13.6 -15.7 7.9 0.3 1.3 -0.8 Durable........................ 1.6 1.1 9.4 -0.3 0.6 -1.4 19.2 -22.0 9.7 0.3 1.7 -1.3 Nondurable..................... 1.1 0.2 5.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 7.3 -7.2 5.7 0.4 0.7 0.2 Retailers................... 1.5 1.0 11.0 0.8 -0.4 7.8 0.9 0.9 10.9 1.0 -1.8 7.5 Durable........................ 2.1 1.7 14.5 0.7 -0.6 11.5 1.3 -1.2 15.7 -0.4 -4.6 11.1 Nondurable..................... 1.0 0.5 8.5 0.8 -0.2 3.7 0.6 2.7 7.4 2.6 1.5 3.6 Merchant wholesalers. 1.1 -0.3 9.6 0.3 0.9 4.6 3.9 -5.2 12.4 -0.9 1.5 4.5 Durable........................ 0.8 0.1 8.5 -0.4 0.8 3.9 3.7 -5.6 11.5 -1.4 1.6 3.9 Nondurable..................... 1.4 -0.7 10.9 1.6 1.1 5.8 4.0 -4.8 13.3 0.0 1.5 5.6 Table 3. Estimated Monthly Retail Sales, Inventories, and Inventories/Sales Ratios, by Kind of Business (In millions of dollars) SIC Sales Inventories 1 Percent Change Inventories/Sales Code Kind of Business In Inventories Ratios Aug. 99 Jul. 99 Aug. 98 Aug. 99 Jul. 99 Aug. 98 Aug.99/Jul.99/Aug.99 Aug.99 Jul.99 Aug.98 (p) (r) (s) (p) (r) (s) Jul.99 Jun.99 Aug.98 Adjusted 2 Retail trade, total...... 253,136 249,468 228,098 359,445 356,765 333,468 0.8 (0.4) 7.8 1.42 1.43 1.46 Total (excl. auto deal 188,138 186,422 173,852 253,256 251,090 242,676 0.9 -0.2 4.4 1.35 1.35 1.40 Durable goods, total..... 107,104 104,850 93,522 194,787 193,482 174,636 0.7 -0.6 11.5 1.82 1.85 1.87 52 Building materials group stores.. 15,129 15,066 13,726 28,847 28,654 26,443 0.7 0.6 9.1 1.91 1.90 1.93 55 Automotive dealers............... 64,998 63,046 54,246 106,189 105,675 90,792 0.5 -1.0 17.0 1.63 1.68 1.67 57 Furniture group stores........... 13,705 13,604 12,772 25,779 25,725 24,921 0.2 0.1 3.4 1.88 1.89 1.95 Nondurable goods, total.. 146,032 144,618 134,576 164,658 163,283 158,832 0.8 -0.2 3.7 1.13 1.13 1.18 53 General merchandise group stores. 31,957 31,790 29,338 61,107 60,614 59,959 0.8 -0.3 1.9 1.91 1.91 2.04 531 Dept. strs. (excl. leased dept 24,943 24,868 23,131 49,782 49,485 49,386 0.6 -0.3 0.8 2.00 1.99 2.14 54 Food group stores................ 38,483 38,289 36,845 30,753 30,506 29,541 0.8 0.3 4.1 0.80 0.80 0.80 56 Apparel and accessory stores..... 11,421 11,283 10,598 25,741 25,848 25,646 -0.4 -1.4 0.4 2.25 2.29 2.42 Not Adjusted Retail trade, total...... 256,882 254,556 231,685 348,227 344,827 324,047 1.0 -1.8 7.5 1.36 1.35 1.40 Total (excl. auto deal 188,865 187,795 175,613 251,887 246,793 241,481 2.1 1.0 4.3 1.33 1.31 1.38 Durable goods, total..... 110,934 109,530 95,851 184,151 184,840 165,726 -0.4 -4.6 11.1 1.66 1.69 1.73 52 Building materials group stores.. 16,039 16,840 14,329 28,414 28,597 26,046 -0.6 -1.6 9.1 1.77 1.70 1.82 55 Automotive dealers............... 68,017 66,761 56,072 96,340 98,034 82,566 -1.7 -8.4 16.7 1.42 1.47 1.47 57 Furniture group stores........... 13,725 13,307 12,813 25,289 25,082 24,472 0.8 1.7 3.3 1.84 1.88 1.91 Nondurable goods, total.. 145,948 145,026 135,834 164,076 159,987 158,321 2.6 1.5 3.6 1.12 1.10 1.17 53 General merchandise group stores. 30,845 29,630 28,903 60,541 58,499 59,402 3.5 1.4 1.9 1.96 1.97 2.06 531 Dept. strs. (excl. leased dept 24,045 22,903 22,830 49,284 47,704 48,892 3.3 1.5 0.8 2.05 2.08 2.14 54 Food group stores................ 38,522 40,284 37,336 30,073 29,955 28,892 0.4 0.0 4.1 0.78 0.74 0.77 56 Apparel and accessory stores..... 12,064 10,764 11,423 26,436 25,900 26,364 2.1 3.2 0.3 2.19 2.41 2.31 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (s) Adjusted data were revised due to concurrent seasonal adjustment. No revisions were made to Not Adjusted data. (1) Inventories are on a non-LIFO basis as of the end of the month. (2) Adjusted for seasonal variations and, in the case of sales, for trading- day differences and holiday variations. Concurrent seasonal adjustment is being used to adjust all sales, shipment and inventory estimates. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-11 program. The factors derived from the program are applied to the current and previous month estimates and for retail and wholesale estimates a year ago as well. For retail sales, concurrent seasonal adjustment is also used to adjust the advance estimates (published one month before the preliminary estimates) and the estimates one year before the advance month. This explains the revision to retail estimates from a year ago. (3) Manufacturers sales refers to the value of shipments by manufacturers. The shipments data from individual manufacturers are adjusted prior to tabulation for the number of trading days as well as for any variations in the length of the reporting period. Note: The Manufacturing and Trade Inventory and Sales estimates are based on data from three surveys: the Monthly Retail Trade Survey, the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey, and the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey. The sampling variability for retailers and merchant wholesalers can be used to construct a 90 percent confidence interval for the estimates. Over all possible samples, 90 percent of such intervals will cover the true estimate. These intervals are given in parentheses for the estimates on the front page. If, for example, the estimate is up 0.8 percent and the margin of sampling error is +/-1.2 percent, the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.4 percent to +2.0 percent. If the range contains 0, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. Manufacturers do not contribute to estimates of sampling variability because the manufacturer's mail panel is not a probability sample from a known frame and standard errors of the industry estimates cannot be calculated. Estimates from all three surveys are also subject to nonsampling errors which can arise in any stage of the survey. Such errors include coverage error (failure to accurately represent all population units in the sample), response errors, coding errors, and nonresponse. Although no direct measurement of these errors has been obtained, precautionary steps were taken in all phases of the collection, processing, and tabulation of the data to minimize their influence.