FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION 8:30 A.M. EDT, Monday, June 14,1999 CB-99-110 MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES AND SALES April 1999 Intention to Revise: Revisions to the adjusted and unadjusted monthly estimates for sales and inventories have been rescheduled for release as follows: Retail the week of July 26, Wholesale the week of August 2. Manufacturing estimates will not be revised. Revisions to the Retail and Wholesale estimates will be reflected in the June 1999 Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Report. Sales. The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers' shipments for April, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were estimated at $809.3 billion, down 0.1 percent (+/-0.9%) from March but were up 4.9 percent (+/-0.5%) from April 1998. Total durable goods were down 0.3 percent (+/-0.3%) from March but were up 5.7 percent (+/-0.8%) from April 1998. Total nondurable goods increased 0.2 percent (+/-0.2%) from March and were up 4.1 percent (+/-0.5%) from April 1998. Inventories. Manufacturers' and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,098.0 billion, up 0.2 percent (+/-0.9%) from March and up 2.7 percent (+/-0.9%) from April 1998. Total durable goods were not significantly changed from March but were up 2.7 percent (+/-1.3%) from April 1998. Total nondurable goods increased 0.4 percent (+/-0.5%) from March and were up 2.7 percent (+/-0.6%) from April 1998. Inventories/Sales Ratio. The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of April was 1.36. The April 1998 ratio was 1.39. Table 1. Estimated Monthly Sales and Inventories for Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers (In millions of dollars) Sales Inventories1 Inventories/Sales Ratios Apr. 99 Mar. 99 Apr. 98 Apr. 99 Mar. 99 Apr. 98 Apr. 99 Mar. 99 Apr. 98 (p) (r) (s) (p) (r) (s) Adjusted2 Total business.............. 809,341 809,887 771,560 1,097,958 1,095,766 1,069,566 1.36 1.35 1.39 Durable........................ 416,712 418,122 394,412 668,529 668,260 651,242 1.60 1.60 1.65 Nondurable..................... 392,629 391,765 377,148 429,429 427,506 418,324 1.09 1.09 1.11 Manufacturers3.............. 347,558 349,065 335,553 462,963 463,578 464,668 1.33 1.33 1.38 Durable........................ 197,251 198,292 186,843 292,260 293,391 293,393 1.48 1.48 1.57 Nondurable..................... 150,307 150,773 148,710 170,703 170,187 171,275 1.14 1.13 1.15 Retailers................... 239,918 239,026 222,739 346,034 343,756 328,830 1.44 1.44 1.48 Durable........................ 101,297 101,652 93,686 187,994 185,992 175,541 1.86 1.83 1.87 Nondurable..................... 138,621 137,374 129,053 158,040 157,764 153,289 1.14 1.15 1.19 Merchant wholesalers 221,865 221,796 213,268 288,961 288,432 276,068 1.30 1.30 1.29 Durable........................ 118,164 118,178 113,883 188,275 188,877 182,308 1.59 1.60 1.60 Nondurable..................... 103,701 103,618 99,385 100,686 99,555 93,760 0.97 0.96 0.94 Not Adjusted Total business.............. 807,103 847,194 769,718 1,105,513 1,097,682 1,076,520 1.37 1.30 1.40 Durable........................ 417,584 448,296 394,551 677,819 671,654 659,753 1.62 1.50 1.67 Nondurable..................... 389,519 398,898 375,167 427,694 426,028 416,767 1.10 1.07 1.11 Manufacturers............... 344,047 369,208 332,551 465,318 462,645 467,122 1.35 1.25 1.40 Durable........................ 194,836 215,480 184,959 293,901 292,680 295,053 1.51 1.36 1.60 Nondurable..................... 149,211 153,728 147,592 171,417 169,965 172,069 1.15 1.11 1.17 Retailers................... 238,086 239,909 221,166 349,049 344,329 331,193 1.47 1.44 1.50 Durable........................ 103,591 105,007 95,261 193,931 189,744 180,730 1.87 1.81 1.90 Nondurable..................... 134,495 134,902 125,905 155,118 154,585 150,463 1.15 1.15 1.20 Merchant wholesalers. 224,970 238,077 216,001 291,146 290,708 278,205 1.29 1.22 1.29 Durable........................ 119,157 127,809 114,331 189,987 189,230 183,970 1.59 1.48 1.61 Nondurable..................... 105,813 110,268 101,670 101,159 101,478 94,235 0.96 0.92 0.93 See footnotes and notes at the end of Table 3. Table 2. Percent Changes for Sales and Inventories -- Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers Adjusted Not Adjusted Sales Inventories Sales Inventories Apr. 99/ Mar. 99/Apr. 99/ Apr. 99/ Mar. 99/ Apr. 99/ Apr. 99/Mar 99/Apr 99/Apr 99/Mar 99/Apr 99/ Mar. 99 Feb. 99 Apr. 98 Mar. 99 Feb. 99 Apr. 98 Mar. 99 Feb 99 Apr 98 Mar 99 Feb 99 Apr 98 Total business.............. -0.1 1.1 4.9 0.2 0.5 2.7 -4.7 13.1 4.9 0.7 0.5 2.7 Durable........................ -0.3 0.9 5.7 0.0 0.6 2.7 -6.9 14.8 5.8 0.9 0.6 2.7 Nondurable..................... 0.2 1.3 4.1 0.4 0.3 2.7 -2.4 11.3 3.8 0.4 0.4 2.6 Manufacturers............... -0.4 1.6 3.6 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -6.8 8.3 3.5 0.6 -0.9 -0.4 Durable........................ -0.5 2.0 5.6 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 -9.6 10.5 5.3 0.4 -1.0 -0.4 Nondurable..................... -0.3 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 -0.3 -2.9 5.2 1.1 0.9 -0.6 -0.4 Retailers................... 0.4 0.0 7.7 0.7 1.6 5.2 -0.8 15.1 7.7 1.4 3.2 5.4 Durable........................ -0.3 -0.8 8.1 1.1 2.4 7.1 -1.3 17.4 8.7 2.2 3.8 7.3 Nondurable..................... 0.9 0.7 7.4 0.2 0.6 3.1 -0.3 13.3 6.8 0.3 2.4 3.1 Merchant wholesalers. 0.0 1.5 4.0 0.2 0.2 4.7 -5.5 19.2 4.2 0.2 -0.3 4.7 Durable........................ 0.0 0.8 3.8 -0.3 0.1 3.3 -6.8 20.3 4.2 0.4 0.1 3.3 Nondurable..................... 0.1 2.5 4.3 1.1 0.5 7.4 -4.0 18.1 4.1 -0.3 -1.0 7.3 Table 3. Estimated Monthly Retail Sales, Inventories, and Inventories/Sales Ratios, by Kind of Business (In millions of dollars) SIC Sales Inventories1 Percent Change Inventories/Sales Code Kind of Business In Inventories Ratios Apr. 99 Mar. 99 Apr. 98 Apr. 99 Mar. 99 Apr. 98 Apr. 99/Mar. 99/Apr. 99Apr. 99Mar. 99Apr. 98 (p) (r) (s) (p) (r) (s) Mar. 99 Feb. 99 Apr. 98 Adjusted2 Retail trade, total...... 239,918 239,026 222,739 346,034 343,756 328,830 0.7 1.6 5.2 1.44 1.44 1.48 Total (excl. auto deal 180,968 179,609 167,615 246,112 245,151 237,451 0.4 0.5 3.6 1.36 1.36 1.42 Durable goods, total..... 101,297 101,652 93,686 187,994 185,992 175,541 1.1 2.4 7.1 1.86 1.83 1.87 52 Building materials group stores.. 15,477 15,241 13,702 28,714 28,433 26,088 1.0 0.5 10.1 1.86 1.87 1.90 55 Automotive dealers............... 58,950 59,417 55,124 99,922 98,605 91,379 1.3 4.1 9.3 1.70 1.66 1.66 57 Furniture group stores........... 14,088 14,090 12,952 26,333 25,970 25,372 1.4 -0.4 3.8 1.87 1.84 1.96 Nondurable goods, total.. 138,621 137,374 129,053 158,040 157,764 153,289 0.2 0.6 3.1 1.14 1.15 1.19 53 General merchandise group stores. 31,505 31,608 29,191 60,692 60,624 59,657 0.1 0.9 1.7 1.93 1.92 2.04 531 Dept. strs. (excl. leased dept 24,661 24,794 23,070 49,539 49,511 49,127 0.1 1.1 0.8 2.01 2.00 2.13 54 Food group stores................ 38,090 38,262 36,649 30,249 30,408 29,706 -0.5 0.1 1.8 0.79 0.79 0.81 56 Apparel and accessory stores..... 11,124 10,917 10,412 25,688 25,655 24,840 0.1 -1.1 3.4 2.31 2.35 2.39 Not Adjusted Retail trade, total...... 238,086 239,909 221,166 349,049 344,329 331,193 1.4 3.2 5.4 1.47 1.44 1.50 Total (excl. auto deal 175,677 174,624 163,229 243,307 240,442 234,595 1.2 2.5 3.7 1.38 1.38 1.44 Durable goods, total..... 103,591 105,007 95,261 193,931 189,744 180,730 2.2 3.8 7.3 1.87 1.81 1.90 52 Building materials group stores.. 16,979 14,586 14,903 30,064 29,400 27,288 2.3 4.6 10.2 1.77 2.02 1.83 55 Automotive dealers............... 62,409 65,285 57,937 105,742 103,887 96,598 1.8 4.7 9.5 1.69 1.59 1.67 57 Furniture group stores........... 12,827 13,677 11,787 25,727 24,957 24,763 3.1 0.6 3.9 2.01 1.82 2.10 Nondurable goods, total.. 134,495 134,902 125,905 155,118 154,585 150,463 0.3 2.4 3.1 1.15 1.15 1.20 53 General merchandise group stores. 29,222 29,336 27,565 59,223 58,589 58,218 1.1 3.4 1.7 2.03 2.00 2.11 531 Dept. strs. (excl. leased dept 22,885 22,910 21,778 48,449 47,976 48,046 1.0 3.8 0.8 2.12 2.09 2.21 54 Food group stores................ 37,422 38,107 36,152 29,903 30,295 29,390 -1.3 1.2 1.7 0.80 0.79 0.81 56 Apparel and accessory stores..... 10,577 10,330 10,127 25,149 25,193 24,343 -0.2 2.9 3.3 2.38 2.44 2.40 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (s) Adjusted data were revised due to concurrent seasonal adjustment. No revisions were made to Not Adjusted data. (1) Inventories are on a non-LIFO basis as of the end of the month. (2) Adjusted for seasonal variations and, in the case of sales, for trading- day differences and holiday variations. Concurrent seasonal adjustment is being used to adjust all sales, shipment and inventory estimates. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-11 program. The factors derived from the program are applied to the current and previous month estimates and for retail and wholesale estimates a year ago as well. For retail sales, concurrent seasonal adjustment is also used to adjust the advance estimates (published one month before the preliminary estimates) and the estimates one year before the advance month. This explains the revision to retail estimates from a year ago. (3) Manufacturers sales refers to the value of shipments by manufacturers. The shipments data from individual manufacturers are adjusted prior to tabulation for the number of trading days as well as for any variations in the length of the reporting period. Note: The Manufacturing and Trade Inventory and Sales estimates are based on data from three surveys: the Monthly Retail Trade Survey, the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey, and the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey. The sampling variability for retailers and merchant wholesalers can be used to construct a 90 percent confidence interval for the estimates. Over all possible samples, 90 percent of such intervals will cover the true estimate. These intervals are given in parentheses for the estimates on the front page. If, for example, the estimate is up 0.8 percent and the margin of sampling error is +/-1.2 percent, the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.4 percent to +2.0 percent. If the range contains 0, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. Manufacturers do not contribute to estimates of sampling variability because the manufacturer's mail panel is not a probability sample from a known frame and standard errors of the industry estimates cannot be calculated. Estimates from all three surveys are also subject to nonsampling errors which can arise in any stage of the survey. Such errors include coverage error (failure to accurately represent all population units in the sample), response errors, coding errors, and nonresponse. Although no direct measurement of these errors has been obtained, precautionary steps were taken in all phases of the collection, processing, and tabulation of the data to minimize their influence.