FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION 8:30 A.M. EST, Tuesday, December 15, 1998 CB-98-231 MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES AND SALES October 1998 SALES The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers' shipments for October, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were estimated at $781.0 billion, up 0.2 percent (+/-0.2%) from September and up 3.1 percent (+/-0.5%) from October 1997. Total durable goods increased 0.3 percent (+/-0.3%) from September and were up 4.8 percent (+/-0.8%) from October 1997. Total nondurable goods increased 0.1 percent (+/-0.3%) from September and were up 1.3 percent (+/- 0.5%) from October 1997. INVENTORIES Manufacturers' and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations, but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,083.8 billion, up 0.3 (+/-0.1%) from September and were 3.6 percent (+/-0.5%) above October 1997. Total durable goods increased 0.6 percent (+/-0.2%) from September and were 3.7 percent (+/-0.8%) above October 1997. Total nondurable goods decreased 0.3 percent (+/-0.2%) from September but were up 3.3 percent (+/-0.6%) from October 1997. INVENTORIES/SALES RATIO The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of October was 1.39. The October 1997 ratio was 1.38. Table 1. Estimated Monthly Sales and Inventories for Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers (In millions of dollars) Sales Inventories/1 Inventories/Sales Ratios Oct. 98 Sep. 98 Oct. 97 Oct. 98 Sept. 98 Oct. 97 Oct. 98 Sep. 98 Oct. 97 Adjusted/2 (p) (r) (s) (p) (r) (s) Total business............ 781,006 779,478 757,573 1,083,764 1,080,866 1,046,591 1.39 1.39 1.38 Durable...................... 401,052 399,729 382,552 659,458 655,228 635,652 1.64 1.64 1.66 Nondurable................... 379,954 379,749 375,021 424,306 425,638 410,939 1.12 1.12 1.10 Manufacturers/3........... 340,092 340,481 332,321 471,472 468,552 455,553 1.39 1.38 1.37 Durable...................... 193,421 192,842 183,225 298,900 296,757 286,654 1.55 1.54 1.56 Nondurable................... 146,671 147,639 149,096 172,572 171,795 168,899 1.18 1.16 1.13 Retailers................. 227,900 225,141 215,115 328,860 328,186 322,293 1.44 1.46 1.50 Durable...................... 95,847 94,066 88,372 174,860 173,166 173,877 1.82 1.84 1.97 Nondurable................... 132,053 131,075 126,743 154,000 155,020 148,416 1.17 1.18 1.17 Merchant wholesalers...... 213,014 213,856 210,137 283,432 284,128 268,745 1.33 1.33 1.28 Durable...................... 111,784 112,821 110,955 185,698 185,305 175,121 1.66 1.64 1.58 Nondurable................... 101,230 101,035 99,182 97,734 98,823 93,624 0.97 0.98 0.94 Not Adjusted Total business............ 805,488 801,322 785,963 1,107,563 1,075,878 1,069,525 1.38 1.34 1.36 Durable...................... 414,624 419,812 397,956 663,912 649,108 639,863 1.60 1.55 1.61 Nondurable................... 390,864 381,510 388,007 443,651 426,770 429,662 1.14 1.12 1.11 Manufacturers............. 350,406 364,324 342,277 472,290 467,407 456,570 1.35 1.28 1.33 Durable...................... 198,850 209,036 187,885 298,963 295,733 286,770 1.50 1.41 1.53 Nondurable................... 151,556 155,288 154,392 173,327 171,674 169,800 1.14 1.11 1.10 Retailers................. 230,679 217,924 217,578 349,517 330,223 342,065 1.52 1.52 1.57 Durable...................... 96,574 92,864 89,509 179,579 169,132 178,307 1.86 1.82 1.99 Nondurable................... 134,105 125,060 128,069 169,938 161,091 163,758 1.27 1.29 1.28 Merchant wholesalers...... 224,403 219,074 226,108 285,756 278,248 270,890 1.27 1.27 1.20 Durable...................... 119,200 117,912 120,562 185,370 184,243 174,786 1.56 1.56 1.45 Nondurable................... 105,203 101,162 105,546 100,386 94,005 96,104 0.95 0.93 0.91 See footnotes and notes at the end of Table 3. (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (s) Adjusted data were revised due to concurrent seasonal adjustment. No revisions were made to Not Adjusted data. Table 2. Percent Changes for Sales and Inventories -- Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers Adjusted Not Adjusted Sales Inventories Sales Inventories Oct. 98/ Sep. 98/ Oct. 98/ Oct. 98/ Sep. 98/ Oct. 98/ Oct. 98/ Sep. 98/ Oct. 98/Oct. 98/Sep. 98/ Oct. 98/ Sep. 98 Aug. 98 Oct. 97 Sep. 98 Aug. 98 Oct. 97 Sep. 98 Aug. 98 Oct. 97 Sep. 98 Aug. 98 Oct. 97 Total business............ 0.2 0.9 3.1 0.3 0.6 3.6 0.5 3.4 2.5 2.9 1.0 3.6 Durable...................... 0.3 1.1 4.8 0.6 0.5 3.7 -1.2 6.5 4.2 2.3 0.1 3.8 Nondurable................... 0.1 0.7 1.3 -0.3 0.7 3.3 2.5 0.1 0.7 4.0 2.3 3.3 Manufacturers............. -0.1 1.2 2.3 0.6 0.0 3.5 -3.8 8.0 2.4 1.0 -0.9 3.4 Durable...................... 0.3 2.1 5.6 0.7 -0.1 4.3 -4.9 12.3 5.8 1.1 -1.4 4.3 Nondurable................... -0.7 0.0 -1.6 0.5 0.2 2.2 -2.4 2.6 -1.8 1.0 0.0 2.1 Retailers................. 1.2 0.4 5.9 0.2 0.7 2.0 5.9 -4.3 6.0 5.8 4.0 2.2 Durable...................... 1.9 0.8 8.5 1.0 1.1 0.6 4.0 -2.7 7.9 6.2 3.3 0.7 Nondurable................... 0.7 0.1 4.2 -0.7 0.3 3.8 7.2 -5.4 4.7 5.5 4.8 3.8 Merchant wholesalers...... -0.4 1.0 1.4 -0.2 1.3 5.5 2.4 4.2 -0.8 2.7 0.8 5.5 Durable...................... -0.9 -0.5 0.7 0.2 0.8 6.0 1.1 4.7 -1.1 0.6 -0.2 6.1 Nondurable................... 0.2 2.8 2.1 -1.1 2.0 4.4 4.0 3.8 -0.3 6.8 2.8 4.5 Table 3. Estimated Monthly Retail Sales, Inventories, and Inventories/Sales Ratios, by Kind of Business (In millions of dollars) SIC Kind of Business Code Sales Inventories/1 Percent change in Inventories/Sales Inventories Ratios Oct. 98 Sep. 98 Oct. 97 Oct. 98 Sep. 98 Oct. 97 Oct. 98/ Sep.98/ Oct.98 Oct.98 Sep.98 Oct.97 Adjusted/2 (p) (r) (s) (p) (r) (s) Sep. 98 Aug.98 Oct.97 Retail trade, total.......... 227,900 225,141 215,115 328,860 328,186 322,293 0.2 0.7 2.0 1.44 1.46 1.50 Total (excl. auto group)... 171,912 170,546 163,329 238,352 238,975 230,801 -0.3 0.0 3.3 1.39 1.40 1.41 Durable goods, total..... 95,847 94,066 88,372 174,860 173,166 173,877 1.0 1.1 0.6 1.82 1.84 1.97 52 Building materials group stor 13,969 13,886 12,704 26,746 26,613 25,103 0.5 -0.5 6.5 1.91 1.92 1.98 55 Automotive group............. 55,988 54,595 51,786 90,508 89,211 91,492 1.5 2.8 -1.1 1.62 1.63 1.77 57 Furniture group stores....... 13,400 13,383 12,413 25,215 25,158 24,733 0.2 -0.7 1.9 1.88 1.88 1.99 Nondurable goods, total... 132,053 131,075 126,743 154,000 155,020 148,416 -0.7 0.3 3.8 1.17 1.18 1.17 53 General merchandise group str 29,730 29,637 28,105 60,363 60,185 58,416 0.3 0.8 3.3 2.03 2.03 2.08 531 Dept. strs. (exc. leased dep 23,396 23,322 22,199 49,543 49,522 48,126 0.0 0.5 2.9 2.12 2.12 2.17 54 Food group stores............ 37,393 37,246 36,010 29,651 29,754 29,065 -0.3 -0.2 2.0 0.79 0.80 0.81 56 Apparel and accessory stores. 10,306 10,084 9,862 25,177 25,575 23,817 -1.6 1.0 5.7 2.44 2.54 2.42 Not Adjusted Retail trade, total.......... 230,679 217,924 217,578 349,517 330,223 342,065 5.8 4.0 2.2 1.52 1.52 1.57 Total (excl. auto group)... 173,790 163,678 164,550 260,935 246,606 252,677 5.8 3.8 3.3 1.50 1.51 1.54 Durable goods, total..... 96,574 92,864 89,509 179,579 169,132 178,307 6.2 3.3 0.7 1.86 1.82 1.99 52 Building materials group stor 14,964 14,636 13,642 26,532 26,214 24,877 1.2 -0.3 6.7 1.77 1.79 1.82 55 Automotive group............. 56,889 54,246 53,028 88,582 83,617 89,388 5.9 4.7 -0.9 1.56 1.54 1.69 57 Furniture group stores....... 13,268 12,854 12,299 28,317 25,862 27,750 9.5 3.8 2.0 2.13 2.01 2.26 Nondurable goods, total... 134,105 125,060 128,069 169,938 161,091 163,758 5.5 4.8 3.8 1.27 1.29 1.28 53 General merchandise group str 29,460 26,642 27,762 69,767 63,928 67,515 9.1 8.0 3.3 2.37 2.40 2.43 531 Dept. strs. (exc. leased dep 23,045 20,803 21,822 57,173 52,444 55,537 9.0 7.5 2.9 2.48 2.52 2.55 54 Food group stores............ 37,888 36,359 36,228 30,578 29,475 29,943 3.7 1.2 2.1 0.81 0.81 0.83 56 Apparel and accessory stores. 10,587 9,554 9,986 28,576 27,391 27,032 4.3 5.2 5.7 2.70 2.87 2.71 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (s) Adjusted data were revised due to concurrent seasonal adjustment. No revisions were made to Not Adjusted data. (1) Inventories are on a non-LIFO basis as of the end of the month. (2) Adjusted for seasonal variations and, in the case of sales, for trading- day differences and holiday variations. Concurrent seasonal adjustment is being used to adjust all sales, shipment and inventory estimates. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-11 program. The factors derived from the program are applied to the current and previous month estimates and for retail and wholesale estimates a year ago as well. For retail sales, concurrent seasonal adjustment is also used to adjust the advance estimates (published one month before the preliminary estimates) and the estimates one year before the advance month. This explains the revision to retail estimates from a year ago. (3) Manufacturers sales refers to the value of shipments by manufacturers. The shipments data from individual manufacturers are adjusted prior to tabulation for the number of trading days as well as for any variations in the length of the reporting period. Note: The Manufacturing and Trade Inventory and Sales estimates are based on data from three surveys: the Monthly Retail Trade Survey, the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey, and the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey. The sampling variability for retailers and merchant wholesalers can be used to construct a 90 percent confidence interval for the estimates. Over all possible samples, 90 percent of such intervals will cover the true estimate. These intervals are given in parentheses for the estimates on the front page. If, for example, the estimate is up 0.8 percent and the margin of sampling error is +/-1.2 percent, the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.4 percent to +2.0 percent. If the range contains 0, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. Manufacturers do not contribute to estimates of sampling variability because the manufacturer's mail panel is not a probability sample from a known frame and standard errors of the industry estimates cannot be calculated. Estimates from all three surveys are also subject to nonsampling errors which can arise in any stage of the survey. Such errors include coverage error (failure to accurately represent all population units in the sample), response errors, coding errors, and nonresponse. Although no direct measurement of these errors has been obtained, precautionary steps were taken in all phases of the collection, processing, and tabulation of the data to minimize their influence.