FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION 8:30 A.M. Thursday, October 15, 1998 CB-98-193 MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES AND SALES August 1998 SALES The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers' shipments for August, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were estimated at $772.5 billion, down 0.2 percent (+/-0.2%) from July but were up 2.8 percent (+/-0.3%) from August 1997. Total durable goods increased 0.1 percent (+/-0.3%) from July and were up 4.2 percent (+/-0.6%) from August 1997. Total nondurable goods decreased 0.5 percent (+/-0.3%) from July but were up 1.3 percent (+/- 0.4%) from August 1997. INVENTORIES Manufacturers' and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations, but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,074.0 billion, up 0.3 (+/-0.2%) from July and were 3.7 percent (+/-0.5%) above August 1997. Total durable goods increased 0.4 percent (+/-0.3%) from July and were 3.4 percent (+/-0.7%) above August 1997. Total nondurable goods increased 0.2 percent (+/-0.1%) from July and were up 4.2 percent (+/-0.5%) from August 1997. INVENTORIES/SALES RATIO The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of August was 1.39. The August 1997 ratio was 1.38. Table 1. Estimated Monthly Sales and Inventories for Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers (In millions of dollars) Sales Inventories/1 Inventories/Sales Ratios Aug. 98 Jul. 98 Aug. 97 Aug. 98 Jul. 98 Aug. 97 Aug. 98 Jul. 98Aug. 97 Adjusted/2 (p) (r) (s) (p) (r) (s) Total business............ 772,524 773,762 751,509 1,074,001 1,070,875 1,035,510 1.39 1.38 1.38 Durable...................... 395,237 394,694 379,160 651,428 649,061 629,826 1.65 1.64 1.66 Nondurable................... 377,287 379,068 372,349 422,573 421,814 405,684 1.12 1.11 1.09 Manufacturers/3........... 336,692 335,380 328,250 468,399 467,636 451,737 1.39 1.39 1.38 Durable...................... 188,668 186,907 180,554 296,871 295,669 284,982 1.57 1.58 1.58 Nondurable................... 148,024 148,473 147,696 171,528 171,967 166,755 1.16 1.16 1.13 Retailers................. 224,247 224,153 216,391 325,595 325,773 319,257 1.45 1.45 1.48 Durable...................... 93,214 93,235 89,612 171,200 171,417 171,612 1.84 1.84 1.92 Nondurable................... 131,033 130,918 126,779 154,395 154,356 147,645 1.18 1.18 1.16 Merchant wholesalers...... 211,585 214,229 206,868 280,007 277,466 264,516 1.32 1.30 1.28 Durable...................... 113,355 114,552 108,994 183,357 181,975 173,232 1.62 1.59 1.59 Nondurable................... 98,230 99,677 97,874 96,650 95,491 91,284 0.98 0.96 0.93 Not Adjusted Total business............ 775,883 747,183 757,486 1,064,650 1,061,575 1,026,128 1.37 1.42 1.35 Durable...................... 394,418 372,491 379,439 647,869 646,198 625,891 1.64 1.73 1.65 Nondurable................... 381,465 374,692 378,047 416,781 415,377 400,237 1.09 1.11 1.06 Manufacturers............. 337,907 302,131 329,999 471,400 469,220 455,123 1.40 1.55 1.38 Durable...................... 186,344 158,992 178,322 299,663 297,154 287,937 1.61 1.87 1.61 Nondurable................... 151,563 143,139 151,677 171,737 172,066 167,186 1.13 1.20 1.10 Retailers................. 227,551 228,618 221,896 317,354 315,907 310,754 1.39 1.38 1.40 Durable...................... 95,424 97,946 92,552 163,698 164,798 163,795 1.72 1.68 1.77 Nondurable................... 132,127 130,672 129,344 153,656 151,109 146,959 1.16 1.16 1.14 Merchant wholesalers...... 210,425 216,434 205,591 275,896 276,448 260,251 1.31 1.28 1.27 Durable...................... 112,650 115,553 108,565 184,508 184,246 174,159 1.64 1.59 1.60 Nondurable................... 97,775 100,881 97,026 91,388 92,202 86,092 0.93 0.91 0.89 See footnotes and notes at the end of Table 3. (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (s) Adjusted data were revised due to concurrent seasonal adjustment. No revisions were made to Not Adjusted data. Table 2. Percent Changes for Sales and Inventories -- Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers Adjusted Not Adjusted Sales Inventories Sales Inventories Aug. 98/ Jul. 98/Aug. 98/Aug. 98/ Jul. 98/ Aug. 98/ Aug. 98/ Jul. 98Aug. 98Aug. 98Jul. 98Aug. 98 Jul. 98 Jun. 98 Aug. 97 Jul. 98 Jun. 98 Aug. 97 Jul. 98 Jun. 98Aug. 97Jul. 98Jun. 98Aug. 97 Total business............ -0.2 -0.1 2.8 0.3 0.0 3.7 3.8 -8.0 2.4 0.3 0.3 3.8 Durable...................... 0.1 -0.4 4.2 0.4 -0.1 3.4 5.9 -13.1 3.9 0.3 -0.2 3.5 Nondurable................... -0.5 0.2 1.3 0.2 0.2 4.2 1.8 -2.3 0.9 0.3 1.1 4.1 Manufacturers............. 0.4 0.1 2.6 0.2 0.2 3.7 11.8 -15.8 2.4 0.5 1.0 3.6 Durable...................... 0.9 0.2 4.5 0.4 0.2 4.2 17.2 -22.3 4.5 0.8 1.2 4.1 Nondurable................... -0.3 -0.1 0.2 -0.3 0.2 2.9 5.9 -7.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.8 2.7 Retailers................. 0.0 -0.7 3.6 -0.1 -0.2 2.0 -0.5 -1.0 2.5 0.5 -1.1 2.1 Durable...................... 0.0 -2.2 4.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -2.6 -5.1 3.1 -0.7 -3.6 -0.1 Nondurable................... 0.1 0.4 3.4 0.0 0.0 4.6 1.1 2.4 2.2 1.7 1.9 4.6 Merchant wholesalers...... -1.2 0.2 2.3 0.9 0.0 5.9 -2.8 -2.7 2.4 -0.2 0.7 6.0 Durable...................... -1.0 0.1 4.0 0.8 -0.2 5.8 -2.5 -4.1 3.8 0.1 0.9 5.9 Nondurable................... -1.5 0.2 0.4 1.2 0.3 5.9 -3.1 -1.1 0.8 -0.9 0.5 6.2 Table 3. Estimated Monthly Retail Sales, Inventories, and Inventories/Sales Ratios, by Kind of Business (In millions of dollars) SIC Kind of Business Code Sales Inventories/1 Percent change in Inventories/Sales Inventories Ra Aug. 98 Jul. 98 Aug. 97 Aug. 98 Jul. 98 Aug. 97 Aug. 98/ Jul. 98Aug. 98Aug. 98Jul. 98Aug. 97 Adjusted/2 (p) (r) (s) (p) (r) (s) Jul. 98 Jun. 98Aug. 97 Retail trade, total.......... 224,247 224,153 216,391 325,595 325,773 319,257 -0.1 -0.2 2.0 1.45 1.45 1.48 Total (excl. auto group)... 170,377 170,239 162,883 239,027 238,871 228,819 0.1 0.1 4.5 1.40 1.40 1.40 Durable goods, total..... 93,214 93,235 89,612 171,200 171,417 171,612 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 1.84 1.84 1.92 52 Building materials group stor 13,772 13,810 12,498 26,759 26,061 24,531 2.7 0.5 9.1 1.94 1.89 1.96 55 Automotive group............. 53,870 53,914 53,508 86,568 86,902 90,438 -0.4 -1.0 -4.3 1.61 1.61 1.69 57 Furniture group stores....... 13,402 13,399 12,424 25,383 25,717 24,669 -1.3 1.7 2.9 1.89 1.92 1.99 Nondurable goods, total... 131,033 130,918 126,779 154,395 154,356 147,645 0.0 0.0 4.6 1.18 1.18 1.16 53 General merchandise group str 29,365 29,332 27,987 59,641 59,619 58,277 0.0 0.3 2.3 2.03 2.03 2.08 531 Dept. strs. (exc. leased dep 23,194 23,152 22,055 49,218 49,282 47,670 -0.1 0.8 3.2 2.12 2.13 2.16 54 Food group stores............ 37,288 37,027 35,924 29,827 29,957 29,148 -0.4 0.1 2.3 0.80 0.81 0.81 56 Apparel and accessory stores. 10,480 10,520 10,057 25,216 25,296 23,414 -0.3 -0.1 7.7 2.41 2.40 2.33 Not Adjusted Retail trade, total.......... 227,551 228,618 221,896 317,354 315,907 310,754 0.5 -1.1 2.1 1.39 1.38 1.40 Total (excl. auto group)... 172,050 170,877 166,154 237,558 234,430 227,538 1.3 1.4 4.4 1.38 1.37 1.37 Durable goods, total..... 95,424 97,946 92,552 163,698 164,798 163,795 -0.7 -3.6 -0.1 1.72 1.68 1.77 52 Building materials group stor 14,429 15,495 13,141 26,331 26,139 24,163 0.7 -1.5 9.0 1.82 1.69 1.84 55 Automotive group............. 55,501 57,741 55,742 79,796 81,477 83,216 -2.1 -7.6 -4.1 1.44 1.41 1.49 57 Furniture group stores....... 13,434 13,022 12,453 24,951 24,740 24,250 0.9 2.2 2.9 1.86 1.90 1.95 Nondurable goods, total... 132,127 130,672 129,344 153,656 151,109 146,959 1.7 1.9 4.6 1.16 1.16 1.14 53 General merchandise group str 29,070 27,374 27,989 59,177 57,705 57,816 2.6 2.1 2.4 2.04 2.11 2.07 531 Dept. strs. (exc. leased dep 22,985 21,346 22,099 48,775 47,606 47,241 2.5 2.6 3.2 2.12 2.23 2.14 54 Food group stores............ 37,753 38,694 36,940 29,106 29,384 28,445 -0.9 0.1 2.3 0.77 0.76 0.77 56 Apparel and accessory stores. 11,199 9,887 10,874 25,922 25,321 24,093 2.4 5.2 7.6 2.31 2.56 2.22 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (s) Adjusted data were revised due to concurrent seasonal adjustment. No revisions were made to Not Adjusted data. (1) Inventories are on a non-LIFO basis as of the end of the month. (2) Adjusted for seasonal variations and, in the case of sales, for trading- day differences and holiday variations. Concurrent seasonal adjustment is being used to adjust all sales, shipment and inventory estimates. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-11 program. The factors derived from the program are applied to the current and previous month estimates and for retail and wholesale estimates a year ago as well. For retail sales, concurrent seasonal adjustment is also used to adjust the advance estimates (published one month before the preliminary estimates) and the estimates one year before the advance month. This explains the revision to retail estimates from a year ago. (3) Manufacturers sales refers to the value of shipments by manufacturers. The shipments data from individual manufacturers are adjusted prior to tabulation for the number of trading days as well as for any variations in the length of the reporting period. Note: The Manufacturing and Trade Inventory and Sales estimates are based on data from three surveys: the Monthly Retail Trade Survey, the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey, and the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey. The sampling variability for retailers and merchant wholesalers can be used to construct a 90 percent confidence interval for the estimates. Over all possible samples, 90 percent of such intervals will cover the true estimate. These intervals are given in parentheses for the estimates on the front page. If, for example, the estimate is up 0.8 percent and the margin of sampling error is +/-1.2 percent, the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.4 percent to +2.0 percent. If the range contains 0, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. Manufacturers do not contribute to estimates of sampling variability because the manufacturer's mail panel is not a probability sample from a known frame and standard errors of the industry estimates cannot be calculated. Estimates from all three surveys are also subject to nonsampling errors which can arise in any stage of the survey. Such errors include coverage error (failure to accurately represent all population units in the sample), response errors, coding errors, and nonresponse. Although no direct measurement of these errors has been obtained, precautionary steps were taken in all phases of the collection, processing, and tabulation of the data to minimize their influence.