FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION 8:30 A.M. EDT, Friday, May 14, 1998 MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES AND SALES March 1998 Sales. The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers' shipments for March, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were estimated at $775.0 billion, up 0.6 percent (+/-.5%) from February and were 4.0 percent (+ /-0.4%) above March 1997. Total durable goods increased 0.9 percent (+ / -0.8%) from February and were 6.6 percent (+ /-1.1%) above March 1997. Total nondurable goods increased 0.3 percent (+ /-0.5%) from February and were up 1.4 percent (+ /-0.8%) from March 1997. Inventories. Manufacturers' and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations, but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,064.4 billion, up 0.5 percent (+ /-0.4%) from February and were 4.8 percent (+ /-0.6%) above March 1997. Total durable goods increased 0.5 percent (+ /-0.1%) from February and were up 5.0 percent (+ /-0.9%) from March 1997. Total nondurable goods increased 0.4 percent (+ /-0.1%) from February and were up 4.4 percent (+ /-0.5%) from March 1997 Inventories/Sales Ratio. The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of March was 1.37. The March 1997 ratio was 1.36. Table 1. Estimated Monthly Sales and Inventories for Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers (In millions of dollars) Inventories/Sales Mar. 1998 Feb. 199Mar. 199Mar. 1998 Feb. 1998 Mar. 1997 Mar. 1998Feb. 19Mar. 1997 Adjusted/2 (p) (r) (s) (p) (r) (s) Total business............ 774,954 770,071 744,961 1,064,400 1,059,340 1,015,696 1.37 1.38 1.36 Durable...................... 396,881 393,179 372,286 645,772 642,331 614,777 1.63 1.63 1.65 Nondurable................... 378,073 376,892 372,675 418,628 417,009 400,919 1.11 1.11 1.08 Manufacturers/3........... 340,497 337,893 322,923 458,752 458,058 438,560 1.35 1.36 1.36 Durable...................... 190,845 188,233 176,224 287,956 287,243 274,633 1.51 1.53 1.56 Nondurable................... 149,652 149,660 146,699 170,796 170,815 163,927 1.14 1.14 1.12 Retailers................. 220,837 220,866 214,516 328,512 325,532 317,350 1.49 1.47 1.48 Durable...................... 92,447 92,778 88,697 175,875 174,162 170,325 1.90 1.88 1.92 Nondurable................... 128,390 128,088 125,819 152,637 151,370 147,025 1.19 1.18 1.17 Merchant wholesalers...... 213,620 211,312 207,522 277,136 275,750 259,786 1.30 1.30 1.25 Durable...................... 113,589 112,168 107,365 181,941 180,926 169,819 1.60 1.61 1.58 Nondurable................... 100,031 99,144 100,157 95,195 94,824 89,967 0.95 0.96 0.90 Not Adjusted Total business............ 796,543 719,511 760,089 1,063,618 1,060,721 1,015,395 1.34 1.47 1.34 Durable...................... 419,043 370,119 387,371 646,901 645,483 616,081 1.54 1.74 1.59 Nondurable................... 377,500 349,392 372,718 416,717 415,238 399,314 1.10 1.19 1.07 Manufacturers............. 357,763 335,123 337,516 457,878 461,124 438,034 1.28 1.38 1.30 Durable...................... 206,498 188,734 189,274 286,957 289,272 273,848 1.39 1.53 1.45 Nondurable................... 151,265 146,389 148,242 170,921 171,852 164,186 1.13 1.17 1.11 Retailers................. 216,124 191,274 211,725 327,295 320,511 316,360 1.51 1.68 1.49 Durable...................... 92,770 79,948 88,108 178,181 174,960 172,699 1.92 2.19 1.96 Nondurable................... 123,354 111,326 123,617 149,114 145,551 143,661 1.21 1.31 1.16 Merchant wholesalers...... 222,656 193,114 210,848 278,445 279,086 261,001 1.25 1.45 1.24 Durable...................... 119,775 101,437 109,989 181,763 181,251 169,534 1.52 1.79 1.54 Nondurable................... 102,881 91,677 100,859 96,682 97,835 91,467 0.94 1.07 0.91 See footnotes and notes at the end of Table 3. (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (s) Adjusted data were revised due to concurrent seasonal adjustment. No revisions were made to Not Adjusted data. Table 2. Percent Changes for Sales and Inventories -- Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers Adjusted Not Adjusted Mar. 1998/ Feb. 199Mar. 199Mar. 1998/Feb. 1998/Mar. 1998/Mar. 1998Feb. 19Mar. 19Mar. 19Feb. 19Mar. 19 Feb. 1998 Jan. 199Mar. 199Feb. 1998 Jan. 1998 Mar. 1997 Feb. 1998Jan. 19Mar. 19Feb. 19Jan. 19Mar. 19 Total business............ 0.6 0.9 4.0 0.5 0.7 4.8 10.7 4.0 4.8 0.3 1.4 4.7 Durable...................... 0.9 1.7 6.6 0.5 0.8 5.0 13.2 8.3 8.2 0.2 1.9 5.0 Nondurable................... 0.3 0.1 1.4 0.4 0.5 4.4 8.0 -0.2 1.3 0.4 0.6 4.4 Manufacturers............. 0.8 1.3 5.4 0.2 0.6 4.6 6.8 11.8 6.0 -0.7 1.7 4.5 Durable...................... 1.4 2.8 8.3 0.2 0.8 4.9 9.4 17.9 9.1 -0.8 2.0 4.8 Nondurable................... 0.0 -0.6 2.0 0.0 0.4 4.2 3.3 4.9 2.0 -0.5 1.2 4.1 Retailers................. 0.0 0.9 2.9 0.9 0.3 3.5 13.0 -1.6 2.1 2.1 1.5 3.5 Durable...................... -0.4 0.8 4.2 1.0 0.3 3.3 16.0 0.5 5.3 1.8 1.8 3.2 Nondurable................... 0.2 0.9 2.0 0.8 0.2 3.8 10.8 -3.1 -0.2 2.4 1.2 3.8 Merchant wholesalers...... 1.1 0.5 2.9 0.5 1.3 6.7 15.3 -2.2 5.6 -0.2 0.6 6.7 Durable...................... 1.3 0.7 5.8 0.6 1.4 7.1 18.1 -0.6 8.9 0.3 1.7 7.2 Nondurable................... 0.9 0.3 -0.1 0.4 1.1 5.8 12.2 -4.0 2.0 -1.2 -1.4 5.7 Table 3. Estimated Monthly Retail Sales, Inventories, and Inventories/Sales Ratios, by Kind of Business (In Millions of Dollars) SIC Kind of Business Code Sales Inventories/1 Percent change in Inventories/Sales Inventories Ra Mar. 1998 Feb. 199Mar. 199Mar. 1998 Feb. 1998 Mar. 1997 Mar. 98/ Feb. 98Mar. 98Mar. 98Feb. 98Mar. 97 Adjusted/2 (p) (r) (s) (p) (r) (s) Feb. 98 Jan. 98Mar. 97 Retail trade, total.......... 220,837 220,866 214,516 328,512 325,532 317,350 0.9 0.3 3.5 1.49 1.47 1.48 Total (excl. auto group)... 166,828 166,823 161,699 236,943 234,966 227,003 0.8 0.4 4.4 1.42 1.41 1.40 Durable goods, total..... 92,447 92,778 88,697 175,875 174,162 170,325 1.0 0.3 3.3 1.90 1.88 1.92 52 Building materials group stor 13,486 13,485 12,610 26,073 26,360 23,817 -1.1 2.8 9.5 1.93 1.95 1.89 55 Automotive group............. 54,009 54,043 52,817 91,569 90,566 90,347 1.1 -0.2 1.4 1.70 1.68 1.71 57 Furniture group stores....... 13,104 13,172 11,953 25,175 24,737 25,173 1.8 0.8 0.0 1.92 1.88 2.11 Nondurable goods, total... 128,390 128,088 125,819 152,637 151,370 147,025 0.8 0.2 3.8 1.19 1.18 1.17 53 General merchandise group str 29,055 29,010 27,619 59,830 59,634 58,601 0.3 0.2 2.1 2.06 2.06 2.12 531 Dept. strs. (exc. leased dep 22,958 22,972 21,779 49,469 49,160 47,790 0.6 0.1 3.5 2.15 2.14 2.19 54 Food group stores............ 36,317 36,131 36,048 29,421 29,151 28,896 0.9 -0.1 1.8 0.81 0.81 0.80 56 Apparel and accessory stores. 10,326 10,324 9,722 24,476 24,306 22,480 0.7 -0.3 8.9 2.37 2.35 2.31 Not Adjusted Retail trade, total.......... 216,124 191,274 211,725 327,295 320,511 316,360 2.1 1.5 3.5 1.51 1.68 1.49 Total (excl. auto group)... 158,571 142,668 156,422 231,691 225,906 221,940 2.6 1.4 4.4 1.46 1.58 1.42 Durable goods, total..... 92,770 79,948 88,108 178,181 174,960 172,699 1.8 1.8 3.2 1.92 2.19 1.96 52 Building materials group stor 12,595 10,044 11,568 26,855 26,044 24,531 3.1 5.2 9.5 2.13 2.59 2.12 55 Automotive group............. 57,553 48,606 55,303 95,604 94,605 94,420 1.1 1.8 1.3 1.66 1.95 1.71 57 Furniture group stores....... 12,433 11,503 11,380 24,218 23,599 24,216 2.6 -0.1 0.0 1.95 2.05 2.13 Nondurable goods, total... 123,354 111,326 123,617 149,114 145,551 143,661 2.4 1.2 3.8 1.21 1.31 1.16 53 General merchandise group str 26,022 22,977 25,545 57,581 56,141 56,457 2.6 2.6 2.0 2.21 2.44 2.21 531 Dept. strs. (exc. leased dep 20,456 18,033 20,102 47,738 46,358 46,165 3.0 2.9 3.4 2.33 2.57 2.30 54 Food group stores............ 35,592 32,574 36,219 29,311 28,782 28,810 1.8 -2.0 1.7 0.82 0.88 0.80 56 Apparel and accessory stores. 9,303 7,748 9,445 24,060 22,872 22,075 5.2 4.7 9.0 2.59 2.95 2.34 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (s) Adjusted data were revised due to concurrent seasonal adjustment. No revisions were made to Not Adjusted data. (1) Inventories are on a non-LIFO basis as of the end of the month. (2) Adjusted for seasonal variations and, in the case of sales, for trading- day differences and holiday variations. Concurrent seasonal adjustment is being used to adjust all sales, shipment and inventory estimates. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-11 program. The factors derived from the program are applied to the current and previous month estimates and for retail and wholesale estimates a year ago as well. For retail sales, concurrent seasonal adjustment is also used to adjust the advance estimates (published one month before the preliminary estimates) and the estimates one year before the advance month. This explains the revision to retail estimates from a year ago. (3) Manufacturers sales refers to the value of shipments by manufacturers. The shipments data from individual manufacturers are adjusted prior to tabulation for the number of trading days as well as for any variations in the length of the reporting period. Note: The Manufacturing and Trade Inventory and Sales estimates are based on data from three surveys: the Monthly Retail Trade Survey, the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey, and the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey. The sampling variability for retailers and merchant wholesalers can be used to construct a 90 percent confidence interval for the estimates. Over all possible samples, 90 percent of such intervals will cover the true estimate. These intervals are given in parentheses for the estimates on the front page. If, for example, the estimate is up 0.8 percent and the margin of sampling error is +/-1.2 percent, the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.4 percent to +2.0 percent. If the range contains 0, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. Manufacturers do not contribute to estimates of sampling variability because the manufacturer's mail panel is not a probability sample from a known frame and standard errors of the industry estimates cannot be calculated. Estimates from all three surveys are also subject to nonsampling errors which can arise in any stage of the survey. Such errors include coverage error (failure to accurately represent all population units in the sample), response errors, coding errors, and nonresponse. Although no direct measurement of these errors has been obtained, precautionary steps were taken in all phases of the collection, processing, and tabulation of the data to minimize their influence.