FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION 8:30 A.M. EST, Friday, March 13, 1998 MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES AND SALES January 1998 ******************************************************************************************************************* ******************************************************************************************************************* INTENTION TO REVISE: Revisions to the adjusted and unadjusted monthly estimates for sales and inventories are scheduled for release as follows: Retail the week of April 27, Wholesale the week of May 4, and Manufacturing at a later date. Revisions to retail and wholesale will be reflected in the March 1998 Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales report. ******************************************************************************************************************* SALES The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers' shipments for January, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were estimated at $763.7 billion, down 0.1 percent (+/-0.3%) from December but were 3.7 percent (+/-0.3%) above January 1997. Total durable goods increased 0.1 percent (+/-0.4%) from December and were 6.3 percent (+/-0.5%) above January 1997. Total nondurable goods decreased 0.3 percent (+/-0.2%) from December but were up 1.2 percent (+/-0.4%) from January 1997. INVENTORIES Manufacturers' and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations, but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,047.5 billion, virtually unchanged from December but were 4.0 percent (+/-0.5%) above January 1997. Total durable goods increased 0.1 percent (+/-0.2%) from December and were up 4.5 percent (+/-0.5%) from January 1997. Total nondurable goods decreased 0.2 percent (+/-0.2%) from December but were up 3.3 percent (+/-0.5%) from January 1997. INVENTORIES/SALES RATIO The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of January was 1.37. The January 1997 ratio was 1.37. Table 1. Estimated Monthly Sales and Inventories for Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers (In millions of dollars) Inventories/Sales Sales Inventories/1 Ratios Adjusted/2 Jan. 98 Dec. 97 Jan. 97 Jan. 98 Dec. 97 Jan. 97 Jan. 98 Dec. 97Jan. 97 (p) (r) (s) (p) (r) (s) Total business............ 763,719 764,311 736,480 1,047,535 1,047,574 1,007,321 1.37 1.37 1.37 Durable...................... 384,862 384,496 362,088 627,872 627,043 600,923 1.63 1.63 1.66 Nondurable................... 378,857 379,815 374,392 419,663 420,531 406,398 1.11 1.11 1.09 Manufacturers/3........... 333,423 336,734 319,725 454,124 453,591 435,743 1.36 1.35 1.36 Durable...................... 183,148 185,337 171,403 284,881 283,912 272,652 1.56 1.53 1.59 Nondurable................... 150,275 151,397 148,322 169,243 169,679 163,091 1.13 1.12 1.10 Retailers................. 216,955 214,898 209,307 322,180 321,454 314,056 1.49 1.50 1.50 Durable...................... 90,228 89,031 85,061 171,087 171,794 165,919 1.90 1.93 1.95 Nondurable................... 126,727 125,867 124,246 151,093 149,660 148,137 1.19 1.19 1.19 Merchant wholesalers...... 213,341 212,679 207,448 271,231 272,529 257,522 1.27 1.28 1.24 Durable...................... 111,486 110,128 105,624 171,904 171,337 162,352 1.54 1.56 1.54 Nondurable................... 101,855 102,551 101,824 99,327 101,192 95,170 0.98 0.99 0.93 Not Adjusted Total business............ 693,497 806,895 674,870 1,042,081 1,031,847 1,002,359 1.50 1.28 1.49 Durable...................... 341,300 396,280 324,764 624,763 616,637 598,352 1.83 1.56 1.84 Nondurable................... 352,197 410,615 350,106 417,318 415,210 404,007 1.18 1.01 1.15 Manufacturers............. 299,989 333,515 289,557 452,352 442,992 434,371 1.51 1.33 1.50 Durable...................... 160,843 187,338 152,176 283,455 275,777 271,566 1.76 1.47 1.78 Nondurable................... 139,146 146,177 137,381 168,897 167,215 162,805 1.21 1.14 1.19 Retailers................. 192,854 257,020 186,064 312,835 316,104 305,201 1.62 1.23 1.64 Durable...................... 78,078 97,673 74,051 169,203 172,016 164,287 2.17 1.76 2.22 Nondurable................... 114,776 159,347 112,013 143,632 144,088 140,914 1.25 0.90 1.26 Merchant wholesalers...... 200,654 216,360 199,249 276,894 272,751 262,787 1.38 1.26 1.32 Durable...................... 102,379 111,269 98,537 172,105 168,844 162,499 1.68 1.52 1.65 Nondurable................... 98,275 105,091 100,712 104,789 103,907 100,288 1.07 0.99 1.00 See footnotes and notes at the end of Table 3. (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (s) Adjusted data were revised due to concurrent seasonal adjustment. No revisions were made to Not Adjusted data. Table 2. Percent Changes for Sales and Inventories -- Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers Adjusted Not Adjusted Invento Jan. 98/ Dec. 97/Jan.98/ Jan. 98/ Dec. 97/ Jan.98/ Jan. 98/ Dec. 97Jan.98/Jan. 98Dec. 97Jan.98/ Dec. 97 Nov.97 Jan.97 Dec. 97 Nov.97 Jan.97 Dec. 97 Nov.97 Jan.97 Dec. 97Nov.97 Jan.97 Total business............ -0.1 0.9 3.7 0.0 0.4 4.0 -14.1 8.0 2.8 1.0 -3.7 4.0 Durable...................... 0.1 1.3 6.3 0.1 0.4 4.5 -13.9 7.6 5.1 1.3 -2.5 4.4 Nondurable................... -0.3 0.4 1.2 -0.2 0.4 3.3 -14.2 8.3 0.6 0.5 -5.5 3.3 Manufacturers............. -1.0 1.1 4.3 0.1 -0.1 4.2 -10.1 0.2 3.6 2.1 -2.5 4.1 Durable...................... -1.2 1.4 6.9 0.3 -0.3 4.5 -14.1 2.8 5.7 2.8 -3.3 4.4 Nondurable................... -0.7 0.9 1.3 -0.3 0.1 3.8 -4.8 -3.0 1.3 1.0 -1.2 3.7 Retailers................. 1.0 0.5 3.7 0.2 0.7 2.6 -25.0 20.1 3.6 -1.0 -8.3 2.5 Durable...................... 1.3 1.6 6.1 -0.4 0.6 3.1 -20.1 18.5 5.4 -1.6 -3.8 3.0 Nondurable................... 0.7 -0.3 2.0 1.0 0.8 2.0 -28.0 21.0 2.5 -0.3 -13.1 1.9 Merchant wholesalers...... 0.3 0.8 2.8 -0.5 0.9 5.3 -7.3 8.0 0.7 1.5 0.1 5.4 Durable...................... 1.2 1.0 5.5 0.3 1.2 5.9 -8.0 7.2 3.9 1.9 0.3 5.9 Nondurable................... -0.7 0.7 0.0 -1.8 0.5 4.4 -6.5 8.8 -2.4 0.8 -0.2 4.5 Table 3. Estimated Monthly Retail Sales, Inventories, and Inventories/Sales Ratios, by Kind of Business (In Millions of Dollars) SIC Kind of Business Sales Inventories/1 Percent change Inventories/Sa Code Inventories Ra Jan. 98 Dec. 97 Jan. 97 Jan. 98 Dec. 97 Jan. 97 Jan.98/ Dec. 97Jan.97/Jan. 98Dec. 97Jan. 97 (p) (r) (s) (p) (r) (s) Dec. 97 Nov. 97Dec.97 (p) (r) (s) Adjusted/2 Retail trade, total.......... 216,955 214,898 209,307 322,180 321,454 314,056 0.2 0.7 2.6 1.49 1.50 1.50 Total (excl. auto group)... 164,051 161,870 158,468 233,560 231,918 226,428 0.7 0.8 3.1 1.42 1.43 1.43 Durable goods, total..... 90,228 89,031 85,061 171,087 171,794 165,919 -0.4 0.6 3.1 1.90 1.93 1.95 52 Building materials group stor 12,490 12,053 11,595 24,617 24,276 22,457 1.4 1.1 9.6 1.97 2.01 1.94 55 Automotive group............. 52,904 53,028 50,839 88,620 89,536 87,628 -1.0 0.4 1.1 1.68 1.69 1.72 57 Furniture group stores....... 12,603 12,198 11,244 22,211 22,120 22,959 0.4 -0.6 -3.3 1.76 1.81 2.04 Nondurable goods, total... 126,727 125,867 124,246 151,093 149,660 148,137 1.0 0.8 2.0 1.19 1.19 1.19 53 General merchandise group str 28,545 27,921 27,056 58,868 58,520 58,244 0.6 0.9 1.1 2.06 2.10 2.15 531 Dept. strs. (exc. leased dep 22,635 22,171 21,269 48,922 48,499 47,374 0.9 1.0 3.3 2.16 2.19 2.23 54 Food group stores............ 35,996 36,166 35,841 28,737 28,635 28,606 0.4 -1.0 0.5 0.80 0.79 0.80 56 Apparel and accessory stores. 9,986 9,784 9,566 25,811 25,471 23,931 1.3 3.1 7.9 2.58 2.60 2.50 Not Adjusted Retail trade, total.......... 192,854 257,020 186,064 312,835 316,104 305,201 -1.0 -8.3 2.5 1.62 1.23 1.64 Total (excl. auto group)... 145,890 209,406 140,539 222,020 223,598 215,489 -0.7 -12.2 3.0 1.52 1.07 1.53 Durable goods, total..... 78,078 97,673 74,051 169,203 172,016 164,287 -1.6 -3.8 3.0 2.17 1.76 2.22 52 Building materials group stor 9,515 11,078 8,859 23,805 23,426 21,738 1.6 -0.5 9.5 2.50 2.11 2.45 55 Automotive group............. 46,964 47,614 45,525 90,815 92,506 89,712 -1.8 2.8 1.2 1.93 1.94 1.97 57 Furniture group stores....... 11,692 17,275 10,390 21,367 21,943 22,132 -2.6 -13.9 -3.5 1.83 1.27 2.13 Nondurable goods, total... 114,776 159,347 112,013 143,632 144,088 140,914 -0.3 -13.1 1.9 1.25 0.90 1.26 53 General merchandise group str 22,111 46,635 20,783 54,120 54,329 53,533 -0.4 -20.5 1.1 2.45 1.16 2.58 531 Dept. strs. (exc. leased dep 17,157 37,890 15,994 44,910 44,959 43,489 -0.1 -20.6 3.3 2.62 1.19 2.72 54 Food group stores............ 35,606 38,964 35,132 28,956 29,424 28,825 -1.6 -3.0 0.5 0.81 0.76 0.82 56 Apparel and accessory stores. 7,402 15,929 6,957 23,101 23,255 21,418 -0.7 -17.3 7.9 3.12 1.46 3.08 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (s) Adjusted data were revised due to concurrent seasonal adjustment. No revisions were made to Not Adjusted data. (1) Inventories are on a non-LIFO basis as of the end of the month. (2) Adjusted for seasonal variations and, in the case of sales, for trading- day differences and holiday variations. Concurrent seasonal adjustment is being used to adjust all sales, shipment and inventory estimates. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-11 program. The factors derived from the program are applied to the current and previous month estimates and for retail and wholesale estimates a year ago as well. For retail sales, concurrent seasonal adjustment is also used to adjust the advance estimates (published one month before the preliminary estimates) and the estimates one year before the advance month. This explains the revision to retail estimates from a year ago. (3) Manufacturers sales refers to the value of shipments by manufacturers. The shipments data from individual manufacturers are adjusted prior to tabulation for the number of trading days as well as for any variations in the length of the reporting period. Note: The Manufacturing and Trade Inventory and Sales estimates are based on data from three surveys: the Monthly Retail Trade Survey, the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey, and the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey. The sampling variability for retailers and merchant wholesalers can be used to construct a 90 percent confidence interval for the estimates. Over all possible samples, 90 percent of such intervals will cover the true estimate. These intervals are given in parentheses for the estimates on the front page. If, for example, the estimate is up 0.8 percent and the margin of sampling error is +/-1.2 percent, the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.4 percent to +2.0 percent. If the range contains 0, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. Manufacturers do not contribute to estimates of sampling variability because the manufacturer's mail panel is not a probability sample from a known frame and standard errors of the industry estimates cannot be calculated. Estimates from all three surveys are also subject to nonsampling errors which can arise in any stage of the survey. Such errors include coverage error (failure to accurately represent all population units in the sample), response errors, coding errors, and nonresponse. Although no direct measurement of these errors has been obtained, precautionary steps were taken in all phases of the collection, processing, and tabulation of the data to minimize their influence.