FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION 8:30 A.M. EDT, Thursday, October 16, 1997 MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES AND SALES -- AUGUST 1997 SALES The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers' shipments for August adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were estimated at $754.1 billion, down 0.5 percent (±0.2%) from July but were 4.8 percent (±0.3%) above August 1996. Total durable goods decreased 1.0 percent (±0.3%) from July but were 6.4 percent (±0.7%) above August 1996. Total nondurable goods increased 0.1 percent (±0.2%) from July and were up 3.2 percent (±0.6%) from August 1996. INVENTORIES Manufacturers' and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations, but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,030.3 billion, up 0.2 percent (±0.5%) from July and 3.1 percent (±0.8%) above August 1996. Total durable goods increased 0.1 percent (±0.1%) from July and were up 3.6 percent (±1.0%) from August 1996. Total nondurable goods increased 0.5 percent (±0.4%) from July and were up 2.5 percent (±0.7%) from August 1996. INVENTORIES/SALES RATIO The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of August was 1.37. The Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Report for September is scheduled to be released November 18, 1997 at 8:30 a.m. Table 1. Estimated Monthly Sales and Inventories for Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers (In millions of dollars) -----------Sales----------- -------Inventories(1)-------- Inventories/Sales Ratios Aug. 97 July 97 Aug. 96 Aug. 97 July 97 Aug. 96 Aug.97 Jul.97 Aug.96 (p) (r) (s) (p) (r) (s) Adjusted(2) Total business 754,051 757,485 719,660 1,030,321 1,027,787 998,876 1.37 1.36 1.39 Durable......... 377,628 381,553 354,985 618,475 617,819 596,933 1.64 1.62 1.68 Nondurable...... 376,423 375,932 364,675 411,846 409,968 401,943 1.09 1.09 1.10 Manufacturers(3) 330,389 332,895 313,854 448,542 446,602 431,647 1.36 1.34 1.38 Durable......... 181,168 183,827 168,960 282,084 280,800 270,537 1.56 1.53 1.60 Nondurable...... 149,221 149,068 144,894 166,458 165,802 161,110 1.12 1.11 1.11 Retailers..... 214,888 213,549 203,087 316,961 318,871 311,040 1.48 1.49 1.53 Durable......... 88,194 87,228 82,386 168,659 169,863 164,715 1.91 1.95 2.00 Nondurable...... 126,694 126,321 120,701 148,302 149,008 146,325 1.17 1.18 1.21 Merchant Wholesalers... 208,774 211,041 202,719 264,818 262,314 256,189 1.27 1.24 1.26 Durable......... 108,266 110,498 103,639 167,732 167,156 161,681 1.55 1.51 1.56 Nondurable...... 100,508 100,543 99,080 97,086 95,158 94,508 0.97 0.95 0.95 Not Adjusted Total business 761,432 728,913 737,011 1,021,218 1,019,314 989,105 1.34 1.40 1.34 Durable......... 378,514 358,796 361,628 614,263 615,165 592,383 1.62 1.71 1.64 Nondurable...... 382,918 370,117 375,383 406,955 404,149 396,722 1.06 1.09 1.06 Manufacturers.. 331,993 299,786 316,500 451,963 448,123 434,755 1.36 1.49 1.37 Durable......... 178,846 156,290 167,484 285,054 282,366 273,129 1.59 1.81 1.63 Nondurable...... 153,147 143,496 149,016 166,909 165,757 161,626 1.09 1.16 1.08 Retailers..... 220,625 216,161 212,247 309,051 309,088 303,023 1.40 1.43 1.43 Durable......... 91,054 91,355 87,258 161,048 163,281 157,087 1.77 1.79 1.80 Nondurable...... 129,571 124,806 124,989 148,003 145,807 145,936 1.14 1.17 1.17 Merchant Wholesalers... 208,814 212,966 208,264 260,204 262,103 251,327 1.25 1.23 1.21 Durable......... 108,614 111,151 106,886 168,161 169,518 162,167 1.55 1.53 1.52 Nondurable...... 100,200 101,815 101,378 92,043 92,585 89,160 0.92 0.91 0.88 See footnotes and notes at the end of Table 3. (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (s) Adjusted data were revised due to concurrent seasonal adjustment. No revisions were made to Not Adjusted data. Table 2. Percent Changes for Sales and Inventories -- Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers ------------------Adjusted--------------------- ----------------Not Adjusted------------------ ---------Sales--------- ------Inventories------ ---------Sales--------- -----Inventories------ Aug.97/ Jul.97/ Aug.97/ Aug.97/ Jul.97/ Aug.97/ Aug.97/ Jul.97/ Aug.97/ Aug.97/ Jul.97/ Aug.97/ Jul.97 Jun.97 Aug.96 Jul.97 Jun.97 Aug.96 Jul.97 Jun.97 Aug.96 Jul.97 Jun.97 Aug.96 Total business -0.5 1.0 4.8 0.2 0.1 3.1 4.5 -6.0 3.3 0.2 0.4 3.2 Durable......... -1.0 1.4 6.4 0.1 0.1 3.6 5.5 -10.1 4.7 -0.1 -0.1 3.7 Nondurable...... 0.1 0.5 3.2 0.5 0.2 2.5 3.5 -1.6 2.0 0.7 1.2 2.6 Manufacturers. -0.8 1.4 5.3 0.4 0.4 3.9 10.7 -14.6 4.9 0.9 1.2 4.0 Durable......... -1.4 1.7 7.2 0.5 0.6 4.3 14.4 -20.9 6.8 1.0 1.7 4.4 Nondurable...... 0.1 1.0 3.0 0.4 0.1 3.3 6.7 -6.3 2.8 0.7 0.4 3.3 Retailers.... 0.6 1.2 5.8 -0.6 0.5 1.9 2.1 1.8 3.9 0.0 -0.7 2.0 Durable......... 1.1 1.7 7.0 -0.7 0.7 2.4 -0.3 1.5 4.4 -1.4 -3.0 2.5 Nondurable...... 0.3 0.9 5.0 -0.5 0.3 1.4 3.8 2.1 3.7 1.5 2.1 1.4 Merchant Wholesalers... -1.1 0.1 3.0 1.0 -0.7 3.4 -1.9 0.3 0.3 -0.7 0.5 3.5 Durable......... -2.0 0.8 4.5 0.3 -1.3 3.7 -2.3 -0.3 1.6 -0.8 0.1 3.7 Nondurable...... 0.0 -0.6 1.4 2.0 0.5 2.7 -1.6 0.9 -1.2 -0.6 1.2 3.2 Table 3. Estimated Monthly Retail Sales, Inventories, and Inventories/Sales Ratios, by Kind of Business (In millions of dollars) SIC -------------Sales--------- ------Inventories(1)------- -----Percent Change---- --Inventories/Sales-- Code Kind of Business -----in Inventories---- --------Ratios------ Aug. 97 July 97 Aug. 96 Aug. 97 July 97 Aug. 96 Aug.97/ Jul.97/ Aug.97/ Aug.97 Jul.97 Aug.96 (p) (r) (s) (p) (r) (s) Jul.97 Jun.97 Aug.96 Adjusted(2) Retail trade, total. 214,888 213,549 203,087 316,961 318,871 311,040 -0.6 0.5 1.9 1.48 1.49 1.53 Total (excl. auto group).... 161,999 161,656 154,172 228,602 230,329 223,314 -0.7 0.5 2.4 1.41 1.42 1.45 Durable goods, total........... 88,194 87,228 82,386 168,659 169,863 164,715 -0.7 0.7 2.4 1.91 1.95 2.00 52 Building materials, hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers...... 11,929 12,070 11,310 23,591 23,496 21,812 0.4 0.1 8.2 1.98 1.95 1.93 55 Automotive group.... 52,889 51,893 48,915 88,359 88,542 87,726 -0.2 0.6 0.7 1.67 1.71 1.79 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores.. 12,077 11,924 11,167 22,363 23,090 23,549 -3.1 2.0 -5.0 1.85 1.94 2.11 Nondurable goods, total........... 126,694 126,321 120,701 148,302 149,008 146,325 -0.5 0.3 1.4 1.17 1.18 1.21 53 General merchandise group stores...... 27,873 27,768 26,175 57,797 58,406 59,167 -1.0 -0.3 -2.3 2.07 2.10 2.26 531 Dept. strs. (excl. leased depts.).. 21,928 21,831 20,395 47,361 47,853 47,693 -1.0 -0.5 -0.7 2.16 2.19 2.34 54 Food stores......... 36,019 36,003 35,207 28,731 28,541 28,071 0.7 -0.1 2.4 0.80 0.79 0.80 56 Apparel and accessory stores............. 10,053 9,933 9,463 24,592 24,637 23,449 -0.2 0.4 4.9 2.45 2.48 2.48 Not Adjusted Retail trade, total.. 220,625 216,161 212,247 309,051 309,088 303,023 0.0 -0.7 2.0 1.40 1.43 1.43 Total (excl. auto group)..... 165,609 160,679 159,851 227,983 225,788 222,555 1.0 1.7 2.4 1.38 1.41 1.39 Durable goods, total........... 91,054 91,355 87,258 161,048 163,281 157,087 -1.4 -3.0 2.5 1.77 1.79 1.80 52 Building materials, hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers...... 12,553 13,518 12,300 23,308 23,519 21,550 -0.9 -1.8 8.2 1.86 1.74 1.75 55 Automotive group.... 55,016 55,482 52,396 81,068 83,300 80,468 -2.7 -6.7 0.7 1.47 1.50 1.54 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores.. 12,107 11,445 11,326 21,983 22,005 23,125 -0.1 1.6 -4.9 1.82 1.92 2.04 Nondurable goods, total........... 129,571 124,806 124,989 148,003 145,807 145,936 1.5 2.1 1.4 1.14 1.17 1.17 53 General merchandise group stores...... 27,919 25,586 26,416 57,419 56,436 58,718 1.7 1.5 -2.2 2.06 2.21 2.22 531 Dept. strs. (excl. leased depts.).. 22,060 19,866 20,640 47,077 46,178 47,359 1.9 1.3 -0.6 2.13 2.32 2.29 54 Food stores......... 37,105 37,239 36,716 28,017 27,999 27,374 0.1 -0.4 2.3 0.76 0.75 0.75 56 Apparel and accessory stores.............. 10,747 9,114 10,366 25,404 24,637 24,246 3.1 5.5 4.8 2.36 2.70 2.34 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (s) Adjusted data were revised due to concurrent seasonal adjustment. No revisions were made to Not Adjusted data. (1) Inventories are on a non-LIFO basis as of the end of the month. (2) Adjusted for seasonal variations and, in the case of sales, for trading- day differences and holiday variations. Concurrent seasonal adjustment is being used to adjust all sales, shipment and inventory estimates. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-11 program. The factors derived from the program are applied to the current and previous month estimates and for retail and wholesale estimates a year ago as well. For retail sales, concurrent seasonal adjustment is also used to adjust the advance estimates (published one month before the preliminary estimates) and the estimates one year before the advance month. This explains the revision to retail estimates from a year ago. (3) Manufacturers' sales refers to the value of shipments by manufacturers. The shipments data from individual manufacturers are adjusted prior to tabulation for the number of trading days as well as for any variations in the length of the reporting period. Note: The Manufacturing and Trade Inventory and Sales estimates are based on data from three surveys: the Monthly Retail Trade Survey, the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey, and the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey. The sampling variability for retailers and merchant wholesalers can be used to construct a 90 percent confidence interval for the estimates. Over all possible samples, 90 percent of such intervals will cover the true estimate. These intervals are given in parentheses for the estimates in the text above. If, for example, the estimate is up 0.8 percent and the margin of sampling error is +/-1.2 percent, the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.4 percent to +2.0 percent. If the range contains 0, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. Manufacturers do not contribute to estimates of sampling variability because the manufacturers mail panel is not a probability sample from a known frame and standard errors of the industry estimates cannot be calculated. Estimates from all three surveys are also subject to nonsampling errors which can arise in any stage of the survey. Such errors include coverage error (failure to accurately represent all population units in the sample), response errors, coding errors, and nonresponse. Although no direct measurement of these errors has been obtained, precautionary steps were taken in all phases of the collection, processing, and tabulation of the data to minimize their influence. SOURCE: Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales -- August 1997 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233). Questions concerning this report may be addressed to: Nancy Piesto (301) 457-2706/2708 (Retail), Kathy Menth (301) 457-4832 (Manufacturers), or Ronald Piencykoski (301) 457-2779/2764 (Merchant Wholesalers).