FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION 8:30 A.M. EDT, Tuesday, September 16, 1997 MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES AND SALES -- JULY 1997 SALES The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers' shipments for July adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were estimated at $757.6 billion, up 1.0 percent (±0.2%) from June and 5.1 percent (±0.4%) above July 1996. Total durable goods increased 1.6 percent (±0.3%) from June and were 7.6 percent (±0.8%) above July 1996. Total nondurable goods increased 0.4 percent (±0.2%) from June and were up 2.7 percent (±0.6%) from July 1996. INVENTORIES Manufacturers' and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations, but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,028.1 billion, up 0.2 percent (±0.5%) from June and 3.2 percent (±0.8%) above July 1996. Total durable goods increased 0.2 percent (±0.2%) from June and were up 4.1 percent (±1.1%) from July 1996. Total nondurable goods increased 0.1 percent (±0.3%) from June and were up 1.8 percent (±0.6%) from July 1996. INVENTORIES/SALES RATIO The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of July was 1.36, down .01 (±.01%) from June and down .02 (±.03%) from July 1996. The Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Report for August is scheduled to be released October 16, 1997 at 8:30 a.m. Table 1. Estimated Monthly Sales and Inventories for Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers (In millions of dollars) -----------Sales----------- -------Inventories(1)-------- Inventories/Sales Ratios July 97 June 97 July 96 July 97 June 97 July 96 Jul.97 Jun.97 Jul.96 (p) (r) (s) (p) (r) (s) Adjusted(2) Total business 757,567 750,027 720,755 1,028,113 1,026,255 996,582 1.36 1.37 1.38 Durable......... 382,249 376,111 355,288 618,549 617,287 594,255 1.62 1.64 1.67 Nondurable...... 375,318 373,916 365,467 409,564 408,968 402,327 1.09 1.09 1.10 Manufacturers(3) 332,858 328,315 313,851 446,962 444,823 430,543 1.34 1.35 1.37 Durable......... 184,016 180,687 168,762 281,075 279,166 269,493 1.53 1.55 1.60 Nondurable...... 148,842 147,628 145,089 165,887 165,657 161,050 1.11 1.12 1.11 Retailers..... 212,825 210,940 203,090 318,694 317,278 309,986 1.50 1.50 1.53 Durable......... 86,868 85,762 82,383 169,885 168,696 163,534 1.96 1.97 1.99 Nondurable...... 125,957 125,178 120,707 148,809 148,582 146,452 1.18 1.19 1.21 Merchant Wholesalers... 211,884 210,772 203,814 262,457 264,154 256,053 1.24 1.25 1.26 Durable......... 111,365 109,662 104,143 167,589 169,425 161,228 1.50 1.54 1.55 Nondurable...... 100,519 101,110 99,671 94,868 94,729 94,825 0.94 0.94 0.95 Not Adjusted Total business 728,597 775,442 690,594 1,019,572 1,014,877 987,418 1.40 1.31 1.43 Durable......... 358,920 399,143 331,707 615,791 615,558 591,281 1.72 1.54 1.78 Nondurable...... 369,677 376,299 358,887 403,781 399,319 396,137 1.09 1.06 1.10 Manufacturers.. 299,735 350,833 280,761 448,651 442,780 431,983 1.50 1.26 1.54 Durable......... 156,235 197,634 141,288 282,708 277,739 270,828 1.81 1.41 1.92 Nondurable...... 143,500 153,199 139,473 165,943 165,041 161,155 1.16 1.08 1.16 Retailers..... 215,509 212,251 204,817 308,631 311,227 300,137 1.43 1.47 1.47 Durable......... 91,092 90,015 86,024 163,190 168,393 157,004 1.79 1.87 1.83 Nondurable...... 124,417 122,236 118,793 145,441 142,834 143,133 1.17 1.17 1.20 Merchant Wholesalers... 213,353 212,358 205,016 262,290 260,870 255,298 1.23 1.23 1.25 Durable......... 111,593 111,494 104,395 169,893 169,426 163,449 1.52 1.52 1.57 Nondurable...... 101,760 100,864 100,621 92,397 91,444 91,849 0.91 0.91 0.91 See footnotes and notes at the end of Table 3. (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (s) Adjusted data were revised due to concurrent seasonal adjustment. No revisions were made to Not Adjusted data. Table 2. Percent Changes for Sales and Inventories -- Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers ------------------Adjusted--------------------- ----------------Not Adjusted------------------ ---------Sales--------- ------Inventories------ ---------Sales--------- -----Inventories------ Jul.97/ Jun.97/ Jul.97/ Jul.97/ Jun.97/ Jul.97/ Jul.97/ Jun.97/ Jul.97/ Jul.97/ Jun.97/ Jul.97/ Jun.97 May 97 Jul.96 Jun.97 May 97 Jul.96 Jun.97 May 97 Jul.96 Jun.97 May 97 Jul.96 Total business 1.0 1.0 5.1 0.2 0.7 3.2 -6.0 2.4 5.5 0.5 -0.5 3.3 Durable......... 1.6 2.0 7.6 0.2 0.9 4.1 -10.1 6.1 8.2 0.0 -0.4 4.1 Nondurable...... 0.4 -0.1 2.7 0.1 0.4 1.8 -1.8 -1.2 3.0 1.1 -0.6 1.9 Manufacturers. 1.4 1.5 6.1 0.5 0.3 3.8 -14.6 7.9 6.8 1.3 -1.1 3.9 Durable......... 1.8 2.7 9.0 0.7 0.4 4.3 -20.9 11.8 10.6 1.8 -1.3 4.4 Nondurable...... 0.8 0.0 2.6 0.1 0.2 3.0 -6.3 3.2 2.9 0.5 -0.7 3.0 Retailers.... 0.9 0.7 4.8 0.4 0.2 2.8 1.5 -3.1 5.2 -0.8 -1.0 2.8 Durable......... 1.3 1.2 5.4 0.7 0.5 3.9 1.2 -1.3 5.9 -3.1 -1.1 3.9 Nondurable...... 0.6 0.5 4.3 0.2 0.0 1.6 1.8 -4.5 4.7 1.8 -1.0 1.6 Merchant Wholesalers... 0.5 0.4 4.0 -0.6 2.0 2.5 0.5 -0.3 4.1 0.5 1.2 2.7 Durable......... 1.6 1.5 6.9 -1.1 2.3 3.9 0.1 3.0 6.9 0.3 1.7 3.9 Nondurable...... -0.6 -0.8 0.9 0.1 1.3 0.0 0.9 -3.6 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.6 Table 3. Estimated Monthly Retail Sales, Inventories, and Inventories/Sales Ratios, by Kind of Business (In millions of dollars) SIC -------------Sales--------- ------Inventories(1)------- -----Percent Change---- --Inventories/Sales-- Code Kind of Business -----in Inventories---- --------Ratios------ July 97 June 97 July 96 July 97 June 97 July 96 Jul.97/ Jun.97/ Jul.97/ Jul.97 Jun.97 Jul.96 (p) (r) (s) (p) (r) (s) Jun.97 May 97 Jul.96 Adjusted(2) Retail trade, total. 212,825 210,940 203,090 318,694 317,278 309,986 0.4 0.2 2.8 1.50 1.50 1.53 Total (excl. auto group).... 161,154 160,192 154,338 230,324 229,231 223,558 0.5 0.1 3.0 1.43 1.43 1.45 Durable goods, total........... 86,868 85,762 82,383 169,885 168,696 163,534 0.7 0.5 3.9 1.96 1.97 1.99 52 Building materials, hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers...... 12,069 12,037 11,457 23,715 23,470 22,023 1.0 0.7 7.7 1.96 1.95 1.92 55 Automotive group.... 51,671 50,748 48,752 88,370 88,047 86,428 0.4 0.5 2.2 1.71 1.73 1.77 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores.. 11,842 11,695 11,115 23,134 22,636 23,646 2.2 -0.3 -2.2 1.95 1.94 2.13 Nondurable goods, total........... 125,957 125,178 120,707 148,809 148,582 146,452 0.2 0.0 1.6 1.18 1.19 1.21 53 General merchandise group stores...... 27,810 27,576 26,011 58,429 58,591 58,853 -0.3 -0.1 -0.7 2.10 2.12 2.26 531 Dept. strs. (excl. leased depts.).. 21,897 21,718 20,272 47,914 48,101 47,302 -0.4 0.0 1.3 2.19 2.21 2.33 54 Food stores......... 35,776 35,642 35,373 28,537 28,556 27,972 -0.1 0.0 2.0 0.80 0.80 0.79 56 Apparel and accessory stores............. 9,855 9,773 9,435 24,514 24,551 23,520 -0.2 0.4 4.2 2.49 2.51 2.49 Not Adjusted Retail trade, total.. 215,509 212,251 204,817 308,631 311,227 300,137 -0.8 -1.0 2.8 1.43 1.47 1.47 Total (excl. auto group)..... 160,130 157,726 152,803 225,500 221,977 218,851 1.6 -0.9 3.0 1.41 1.41 1.43 Durable goods, total........... 91,092 90,015 86,024 163,190 168,393 157,004 -3.1 -1.1 3.9 1.79 1.87 1.83 52 Building materials, hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers...... 13,482 13,587 12,718 23,739 23,939 22,045 -0.8 -1.4 7.7 1.76 1.76 1.73 55 Automotive group.... 55,379 54,525 52,014 83,131 89,250 81,286 -6.9 -1.3 2.3 1.50 1.64 1.56 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores.. 11,419 10,971 10,686 22,070 21,663 22,582 1.9 -1.3 -2.3 1.93 1.97 2.11 Nondurable goods, total........... 124,417 122,236 118,793 145,441 142,834 143,133 1.8 -1.0 1.6 1.17 1.17 1.20 53 General merchandise group stores...... 25,566 26,131 23,695 56,389 55,628 56,792 1.4 -1.7 -0.7 2.21 2.13 2.40 531 Dept. strs. (excl. leased depts.).. 19,861 20,415 18,265 46,189 45,600 45,599 1.3 -1.8 1.3 2.33 2.23 2.50 54 Food stores......... 37,035 35,338 36,289 28,020 28,125 27,471 -0.4 0.1 2.0 0.76 0.80 0.76 56 Apparel and accessory stores.............. 9,063 9,041 8,616 24,416 23,348 23,449 4.6 -0.9 4.1 2.69 2.58 2.72 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (s) Adjusted data were revised due to concurrent seasonal adjustment. No revisions were made to Not Adjusted data. (1) Inventories are on a non-LIFO basis as of the end of the month. (2) Adjusted for seasonal variations and, in the case of sales, for trading- day differences and holiday variations. Concurrent seasonal adjustment is being used to adjust all sales, shipment and inventory estimates. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-11 program. The factors derived from the program are applied to the current and previous month estimates and for retail and wholesale estimates a year ago as well. For retail sales, concurrent seasonal adjustment is also used to adjust the advance estimates (published one month before the preliminary estimates) and the estimates one year before the advance month. This explains the revision to retail estimates from a year ago. (3) Manufacturers' sales refers to the value of shipments by manufacturers. The shipments data from individual manufacturers are adjusted prior to tabulation for the number of trading days as well as for any variations in the length of the reporting period. Note: The Manufacturing and Trade Inventory and Sales estimates are based on data from three surveys: the Monthly Retail Trade Survey, the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey, and the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey. The sampling variability for retailers and merchant wholesalers can be used to construct a 90 percent confidence interval for the estimates. Over all possible samples, 90 percent of such intervals will cover the true estimate. These intervals are given in parentheses for the estimates in the text above. If, for example, the estimate is up 0.8 percent and the margin of sampling error is +/-1.2 percent, the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.4 percent to +2.0 percent. If the range contains 0, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. Manufacturers do not contribute to estimates of sampling variability because the manufacturers mail panel is not a probability sample from a known frame and standard errors of the industry estimates cannot be calculated. Estimates from all three surveys are also subject to nonsampling errors which can arise in any stage of the survey. Such errors include coverage error (failure to accurately represent all population units in the sample), response errors, coding errors, and nonresponse. Although no direct measurement of these errors has been obtained, precautionary steps were taken in all phases of the collection, processing, and tabulation of the data to minimize their influence. SOURCE: Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales -- July 1997 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233). Questions concerning this report may be addressed to: Nancy Piesto (301) 457-2706/2708 (Retail), Kathy Menth (301) 457-4832 (Manufacturers), or Ronald Piencykoski (301) 457-2779/2764 (Merchant Wholesalers).