FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION 8:30 A.M. EDT, Thursday, August 14, 1997 MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES AND SALES -- JUNE 1997 SALES The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers' shipments for June adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were estimated at $747.9 billion, up 0.7 percent (±0.2%) from May and 4.9 percent (±0.4%) above June 1996. Total durable goods increased 1.5 percent (±0.3%) from May and were 6.1 percent (±0.9%) above June 1996. Total nondurable goods decreased 0.2 percent (±0.3%) from May but were up 3.8 percent (±0.6%) from June 1996. INVENTORIES Manufacturers' and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations, but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,025.9 billion, up 0.7 percent (±0.5%) from May and 3.4 percent (±0.8%) above June 1996. Total durable goods increased 0.9 percent (±0.2%) from May and were up 4.4 percent (±1.1%) from June 1996. Total nondurable goods increased 0.4 percent (±0.3%) from May and were up 1.9 percent (±0.7%) from June 1996. INVENTORIES/SALES RATIO The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of June was 1.37, the same as May but down .02 (±.04) from June 1996. The Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Report for July is scheduled to be released September 16, 1997 at 8:30 a.m. Table 1. Estimated Monthly Sales and Inventories for Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers (In millions of dollars) -----------Sales----------- -------Inventories(1)-------- Inventories/Sales Ratios June 97 May 97 June 96 June 97 May 97 June 96 Jun.97 May 97 Jun.96 (p) (r) (s) (p) (r) (s) Adjusted(2) Total business. 747,856 742,945 712,727 1,025,944 1,019,025 992,101 1.37 1.37 1.39 Durable......... 374,405 368,708 353,013 616,831 611,560 590,642 1.65 1.66 1.67 Nondurable...... 373,451 374,237 359,714 409,113 407,465 401,459 1.10 1.09 1.12 Manufacturers(3) 326,427 323,567 310,052 444,798 443,460 429,802 1.36 1.37 1.39 Durable......... 179,448 175,900 167,524 278,775 278,084 268,294 1.55 1.58 1.60 Nondurable...... 146,979 147,667 142,528 166,023 165,376 161,508 1.13 1.12 1.13 Retailers..... 210,739 209,370 202,698 317,215 316,536 306,177 1.51 1.51 1.51 Durable......... 85,684 84,759 82,315 168,326 167,928 161,528 1.96 1.98 1.96 Nondurable...... 125,055 124,611 120,383 148,889 148,608 144,649 1.19 1.19 1.20 Merchant Wholesalers... 210,690 210,008 199,977 263,931 259,029 256,122 1.25 1.23 1.28 Durable......... 109,273 108,049 103,174 169,730 165,548 160,820 1.55 1.53 1.56 Nondurable...... 101,417 101,959 96,803 94,201 93,481 95,302 0.93 0.92 0.98 Not Adjusted Total business 773,764 757,296 732,971 1,014,995 1,019,996 980,412 1.31 1.35 1.34 Durable......... 397,706 376,245 371,502 615,213 618,236 588,932 1.55 1.64 1.59 Nondurable...... 376,058 381,051 361,469 399,782 401,760 391,480 1.06 1.05 1.08 Manufacturers.. 349,016 325,261 331,597 443,020 447,620 427,726 1.27 1.38 1.29 Durable......... 196,453 176,839 182,994 277,565 281,375 266,934 1.41 1.59 1.46 Nondurable...... 152,563 148,422 148,603 165,455 166,245 160,792 1.08 1.12 1.08 Retailers..... 212,283 219,101 204,705 311,139 314,472 300,383 1.47 1.44 1.47 Durable......... 90,063 91,155 85,962 167,964 170,212 161,280 1.86 1.87 1.88 Nondurable...... 122,220 127,946 118,743 143,175 144,260 139,103 1.17 1.13 1.17 Merchant Wholesalers... 212,465 212,934 196,669 260,836 257,904 252,303 1.23 1.21 1.28 Durable......... 111,190 108,251 102,546 169,684 166,649 160,718 1.53 1.54 1.57 Nondurable...... 101,275 104,683 94,123 91,152 91,255 91,585 0.90 0.87 0.97 See footnotes and notes at the end of Table 3. (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (s) Adjusted data were revised due to concurrent seasonal adjustment. No revisions were made to Not Adjusted data. Table 2. Percent Changes for Sales and Inventories -- Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers ------------------Adjusted--------------------- ----------------Not Adjusted------------------ ---------Sales--------- ------Inventories------ ---------Sales--------- -----Inventories------ Jun.97/ May 97/ Jun.97/ Jun.97/ May 97/ Jun.97/ Jun.97/ May 97/ Jun.97/ Jun.97/ May 97/ Jun.97/ May 97 Apr.97 Jun.96 May 97 Apr.97 Jun.96 May 97 Apr.97 Jun.96 May 97 Apr.97 Jun.96 Total business 0.7 -0.5 4.9 0.7 0.2 3.4 2.2 2.2 5.6 -0.5 -0.1 3.5 Durable......... 1.5 -1.1 6.1 0.9 0.2 4.4 5.7 0.8 7.1 -0.5 0.3 4.5 Nondurable...... -0.2 0.0 3.8 0.4 0.1 1.9 -1.3 3.6 4.0 -0.5 -0.9 2.1 Manufacturers. 0.9 -1.0 5.3 0.3 0.4 3.5 7.3 0.0 5.3 -1.0 0.9 3.6 Durable......... 2.0 -1.4 7.1 0.2 0.4 3.9 11.1 -0.5 7.4 -1.4 1.1 4.0 Nondurable...... -0.5 -0.5 3.1 0.4 0.5 2.8 2.8 0.7 2.7 -0.5 0.6 2.9 Retailers.... 0.7 -0.3 4.0 0.2 -0.3 3.6 -3.1 6.9 3.7 -1.1 -1.0 3.6 Durable......... 1.1 -0.8 4.1 0.2 -0.5 4.2 -1.2 5.2 4.8 -1.3 -1.0 4.1 Nondurable...... 0.4 0.1 3.9 0.2 -0.2 2.9 -4.5 8.2 2.9 -0.8 -0.9 2.9 Merchant Wholesalers... 0.3 0.0 5.4 1.9 0.4 3.0 -0.2 0.9 8.0 1.1 -0.9 3.4 Durable......... 1.1 -0.6 5.9 2.5 0.7 5.5 2.7 -0.3 8.4 1.8 0.5 5.6 Nondurable...... -0.5 0.8 4.8 0.8 -0.1 -1.2 -3.3 2.2 7.6 -0.1 -3.4 -0.5 Table 3. Estimated Monthly Retail Sales, Inventories, and Inventories/Sales Ratios, by Kind of Business (In millions of dollars) SIC -------------Sales--------- ------Inventories(1)------- -----Percent Change---- --Inventories/Sales-- Code Kind of Business -----in Inventories---- --------Ratios------ June 97 May 97 June 96 June 97 May 97 June 96 Jun.97/ May 97/ Jun.97/ Jun.97 May 97 Jun.96 (p) (r) (s) (p) (r) (s) May 97 Apr.97 Jun.96 Adjusted(2) Retail trade, total. 210,739 209,370 202,698 317,215 316,536 306,177 0.2 -0.3 3.6 1.51 1.51 1.51 Total (excl. auto group).... 160,103 159,445 154,033 229,504 228,923 221,031 0.3 0.2 3.8 1.43 1.44 1.43 Durable goods, total........... 85,684 84,759 82,315 168,326 167,928 161,528 0.2 -0.5 4.2 1.96 1.98 1.96 52 Building materials, hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers...... 12,127 12,018 11,500 23,475 23,304 21,948 0.7 0.9 7.0 1.94 1.94 1.91 55 Automotive group..... 50,636 49,925 48,665 87,711 87,613 85,146 0.1 -1.7 3.0 1.73 1.75 1.75 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores.. 11,716 11,693 11,140 22,644 22,713 23,373 -0.3 0.6 -3.1 1.93 1.94 2.10 Nondurable goods, total........... 125,055 124,611 120,383 148,889 148,608 144,649 0.2 -0.2 2.9 1.19 1.19 1.20 53 General merchandise group stores....... 27,562 27,352 25,949 58,634 58,632 58,309 0.0 -0.2 0.6 2.13 2.14 2.25 531 Dept. strs. (excl. leased depts.).. 21,719 21,547 20,222 48,152 48,086 46,940 0.1 -0.2 2.6 2.22 2.23 2.32 54 Food stores.......... 35,706 35,763 35,113 28,592 28,567 27,653 0.1 0.2 3.4 0.80 0.80 0.79 56 Apparel and accessory stores.............. 9,734 9,621 9,502 24,662 24,444 23,295 0.9 0.7 5.9 2.53 2.54 2.45 Not Adjusted Retail trade, total. 212,283 219,101 204,705 311,139 314,472 300,383 -1.1 -1.0 3.6 1.47 1.44 1.47 Total (excl. auto group).... 157,775 164,132 152,745 222,295 224,027 214,066 -0.8 -0.3 3.8 1.41 1.36 1.40 Durable goods, total........... 90,063 91,155 85,962 167,964 170,212 161,280 -1.3 -1.0 4.1 1.86 1.87 1.88 52 Building materials, hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers...... 13,695 14,192 12,892 23,921 24,283 22,365 -1.5 0.6 7.0 1.75 1.71 1.73 55 Automotive group..... 54,508 54,969 51,960 88,844 90,445 86,317 -1.8 -2.6 2.9 1.63 1.65 1.66 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores.. 11,014 11,205 10,507 21,738 21,941 22,438 -0.9 0.7 -3.1 1.97 1.96 2.14 Nondurable goods, total........... 122,220 127,946 118,743 143,175 144,260 139,103 -0.8 -0.9 2.9 1.17 1.13 1.17 53 General merchandise group stores...... 26,138 27,253 24,866 55,631 56,617 55,332 -1.7 -1.0 0.5 2.13 2.08 2.23 531 Dept. strs. (excl. leased depts.).. 20,416 21,353 19,211 45,600 46,451 44,452 -1.8 -1.0 2.6 2.23 2.18 2.31 54 Food stores.......... 35,401 37,462 35,310 28,184 28,084 27,262 0.4 -0.3 3.4 0.80 0.75 0.77 56 Apparel and accessory stores.............. 9,035 9,620 8,941 23,429 23,564 22,130 -0.6 -1.3 5.9 2.59 2.45 2.48 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (s) Adjusted data were revised due to concurrent seasonal adjustment. No revisions were made to Not Adjusted data. (1) Inventories are on a non-LIFO basis as of the end of the month. (2) Adjusted for seasonal variations and, in the case of sales, for trading- day differences and holiday variations. Concurrent seasonal adjustment is being used to adjust all sales, shipment and inventory estimates. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-11 program. The factors derived from the program are applied to the current and previous month estimates and for retail and wholesale estimates a year ago as well. For retail sales, concurrent seasonal adjustment is also used to adjust the advance estimates (published one month before the preliminary estimates) and the estimates one year before the advance month. This explains the revision to retail estimates from a year ago. (3) Manufacturers sales refers to the value of shipments by manufacturers. The shipments data from individual manufacturers are adjusted prior to tabulation for the number of trading days as well as for any variations in the length of the reporting period. Note: The Manufacturing and Trade Inventory and Sales estimates are based on data from three surveys: the Monthly Retail Trade Survey, the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey, and the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey. The sampling variability for retailers and merchant wholesalers can be used to construct a 90 percent confidence interval for the estimates. Over all possible samples, 90 percent of such intervals will cover the true estimate. These intervals are given in parentheses for the estimates in the text above. If, for example, the estimate is up 0.8 percent and the margin of sampling error is +/-1.2 percent, the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.4 percent to +2.0 percent. If the range contains 0, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. Manufacturers do not contribute to estimates of sampling variability because the manufacturer's mail panel is not a probability sample from a known frame and standard errors of the industry estimates cannot be calculated. Estimates from all three surveys are also subject to nonsampling errors which can arise in any stage of the survey. Such errors include coverage error (failure to accurately represent all population units in the sample), response errors, coding errors, and nonresponse. Although no direct measurement of these errors has been obtained, precautionary steps were taken in all phases of the collection, processing, and tabulation of the data to minimize their influence. SOURCE: Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales -- June 1997 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233). Questions concerning this report may be addressed to: Nancy Piesto (301) 457-2706/2708 (Retail), Kathy Menth (301) 457-4832 (Manufacturers), or Ronald Piencykoski (301) 457-2779/2764 (Merchant Wholesalers).