Pacific Northwest Weather Workshop – 2005

4-5 March

Building 9 Auditorium

NOAA Western Regional Campus

7600 Sand Point Way, Seattle, WA 98115

Meeting Theme:  Probabilistic Prediction and the Estimation of Uncertainty

Friday, 4 March 2005

12:00-1:00       Registration

1:00-1:05         Welcome and Meeting Plan – Christopher D. Hill, Meteorologist-In-Charge, NOAA/NWS – Seattle

Session I:        New Observing Systems for the Data-Sparse Eastern Pacific

                        (Chair:  Professor Cliff Mass, UW) 

1:05-1:15         Overview:  Forecast implications of the lack of eastern Pacific weather observations.  Professor Clifford F. Mass, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington

1:15-1:30         Weather observations on tsunami buoys.  U.S. Congressman Jay Inslee

1:30-1:45         Aerosonde Pacific reconnaissance: ready when you are.   Tad McGeer, The Insitu Group; Clifford F. Mass and Juris Vagners, University of Washington

1:45-2:00         National Efforts to Develop a Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis System.  Brad Colman, NOAA/NWS – Seattle; and John Horel, NOAA Cooperative Institute for Regional Prediction, Department of Meteorology, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah

2:00-2:15         Use of Quikscat Winds at NWS Field Offices.  Andy Haner, NOAA/NWS – Seattle

2:15-2:30         Short-term wind forecasting using off-site observations and numerical weather prediction.  Kristin Larson, 3-TIER Environmental Forecast Group

2:30-2:45         An Overview of THORPEX and its Observation Program over the Pacific Ocean.  David Parsons, Co-Chair, THORPEX North American Regional Committee, NCAR/EOL and NCAR/MMM

2:45-3:15        Break, with refreshments.

Session II:      Estimation of Uncertainty (Chairs:  Lynn McMurdie, UW, and Bill Schneider, NOAA/NWS – Portland, OR)

3:15-3:30         The University of Washington Mesoscale Ensemble System.  Richard Steed, Clifford F. Mass, and Eric Grimit, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington

3:30-3:45         Real-Time Ensemble Data Assimilation at the University of Washington.  Ryan D. Torn and Gregory J. Hakim, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington

3:45-4:00         Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging.   J. McLean Sloughter, Adrian E. Raftery, and Tilmann Gneiting, Department of Statistics, University of Washington

4:00-4:15         The Geostatistical Output Perturbation (GOP) Method and Bayesian Dressing:  Statistical Ensembles of Weather Fields.  Veronica J. Berrocal, Department of Statistics, University of Washington

4:15-4:30         Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles. Adrian Raftery, Department of Statistics, University of Washington      

4:30-4:45         A Real-Time Forecast Uncertainty and Verification System for the University of Washington Mesoscale Ensemble System Using BMA.  Patrick Tewson, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington

4:45-5:00         Applying an Ensemble Approach to Parcel Back Trajectories.  Brad Snyder and Jennifer Hay, Environment Canada; and Xin Qiu, RWDI, Ontario, Canada

5:00-5:15        A Survey of NWS Forecast Office Probabilistic Products.  Jon Mittelstadt,  

                        NOAA/NWS – Pendleton, OR

Conference Banquet: The Lake Washington Roaster & Alehouse

                                   6161 NE 175^th in Kenmore

                                      425.482.2670

6:00-7:00         No-host Bar

7:00-8:00         Dinner

8:00                 Speaker:  Dr. Frank Gonzalez,  NOAA/PMEL:  Tsunami Prediction

Saturday, 5 March 2005

8:00                 Registration.  Coffee and pastries.

Session III:     Regional Weather Prediction and Verification (Chairs:  Kirby Cook, NOAA/NWS – WR Headquarters, and Professor Greg Hakim, UW)

8:30-8:45         More on MOS, Perfect Prog, and More.  Caren Marzban, University of Washington and University of Oklahoma; Eugenia Kalnay, University of Maryland; and Scott Sandgathe, University of Washington

8:45-9:00         The New Regional Quality Control System:  Jeff Baars, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington

9:00-9:15         An Automated Mesoscale Forecast Verification System – Revisited.  Stuart Maclean, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington

9:15-9:30         Update on the University of Washington MM5 Real-Time Prediction System.  Clifford F. Mass, David Ovens, Mark Albright, Richard Steed, Eric Grimit, Jeff Baars, and Phil Regulski, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington

9:30-9:45         Transportation Weather Forecasting in Washington State.  Richard C. Steed, and Clifford F. Mass, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington

9:45-10:00       Gridded Bias Removal of Surface Parameters.  Garrett Wedam, Clifford F. Mass, and Richard Steed, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington

10:00-10:15     Review of UWME Forecast Performance and Post-Processing.  Eric P. Grimit, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington

10:15-10:45    Break.  Viewing of posters with authors present.

10:45-12:00     Panel Discussion:  How do we effectively communicate probabilistic weather information to the public and users?

                                    Ted Buehner     NOAA/NWS – Seattle

                                    Mike Gilroy      Puget Sound Clean Air Agency

                                    Eric Grimit        University of Washington

Jeff Renner       KING-TV

12:00-1:15       LUNCH -- NOAA Cafeteria:  (Included in registration)

Session IV:     Regional Weather (Chairs:  Eric Grimit, UW, and Mark Jackson, NOAA/NWS – Salt Lake City)

1:15-1:30         Soil type and site location impacts on soil moisture data collection at high elevation SNOTEL sites.  Julie Holcombe, NOAA/NWS – Seattle

1:30-1:45         Weather and Large Fire Potential – The Sulphur Creek Wildfire of Late June 2003.  John Saltenberger, NOAA/NWS – Portland, OR

1:45-2:00         Examination of the Intense Cold Frontal Passage of 19 November 2003 and Associated Low Elevation Snow Event in Southwest Washington and Northwest Oregon using the NWS Weather Event Simulator.  William R. Schneider, NOAA/NWS – Portland, OR

2:00-2:15         The Structure and Dynamics of Columbia Gorge Gap Flow revealed by High-Resolution Numerical Modeling.  Justin Sharp, Bonneville Power Administration; and Clifford F. Mass, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington

2:15-2:30         Wind Profiler and Research Aircraft Observations in Gastineau Channel during the Taku Wind Event of 18 October 2004.  Nicholas A. Bond, University of Washington/JISAO; and Carl F. Dierking, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Juneau, AK

2:30-2:45         Structural characteristics of winter storms in southern Washington and northern Oregon.  Sandra E. Yuter, Catherine Spooner, and Tim Downing, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington

2:45-3:15        Break, with refreshments.

3:15-3:30         Background observations of air quality at Cheeka Peak, Washington, and Mt. Bachelor, Oregon.  By Dan Jaffe¹, J.B. Dennison¹, Peter Weiss-Penzias¹, Jeremy Smith¹ and Phil Swartzendruber^1,2 (¹University of Washington-Bothell, ²University of Washington-Seattle)

3:30-3:45         The Heavy Rain Event of January 2005.  Doug McCollor, BC Hydro and Roland Stull, Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of British Columbia

3:45-4:00         Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) Forecasting Methodologies with Applications for Seasonal Volumetric and Peakflow Forecasting.  Steve King, NOAA/NWS - Northwest River Forecast Center, Portland, OR

4:00-4:15         Real-time Weather and Road Condition Information for Traveler Information and Maintenance Management.  S. Edward Boselly, Washington State Department of Transportation

Poster Presentations

The Vertical Structure of a Downslope Windstorm:  Aircraft and Profiler Observations During Taku Winds on 16 January 2000.  Carl Dierking, NOAA/NWS, Juneau, Alaska, and Steve Cohn, NCAR

Redefining the Ensemble Spread-Skill Relationship from a Probabilistic Perspective. Eric P. Grimit and Clifford F. Mass, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington

A Survey of NWS Forecast Office Probabilistic Products.  Jon Mittelstadt, NOAA/NWS – Pendleton, OR

Verification of Maximum and Minimum Temperature Forecasts at Eighteen MOS Points in Western Washington.  Tisha Oscar, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, and NOAA/NWS – Seattle

Interesting Pacific Northwest Weather Events in 2004 as Reported by an Automated Weather Station.  Jordan Sutton, Cascade Climatology Consulting Corporation

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