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Transportation Services Index (TSI) Rose 1.5 Percent in September from August
Tuesday, Nov. 7, 2006 - The Transportation Services Index (TSI) rose 1.5 percent in September from its August level, rising one month after the largest monthly decline in five years, the U.S. Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported today (Table 1). The rise in September was the first monthly increase after three consecutive monthly declines and the largest monthly increase since May (Table 2). For additional historical data prior to 2003, go to http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml. For the first nine months of 2006, the TSI, a combination of the freight and passenger indexes, fell 0.2 percent, the first December-to-September decline since 2001 (Table 3). The September level of 110.3 for the combined freight and passenger index was 0.5 percent lower than the September 2005 level, the first decline from September of the previous year since September 2001 (Table 4). The September 2006 level was 10.2 percent higher than the September level of the base year of 2000 (Table 5). TSI is a single seasonally adjusted index of the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries, including railroad, air, truck, inland waterways, pipeline, and local transit. The index includes historic data from 1990 to the present. The TSI is still under development and is considered experimental. The index measures changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. Release of the October index is scheduled for Dec. 6. Transportation Services Index for FreightThe TSI for freight rose 1.3 percent in September from the August level, rising after two consecutive monthly decreases (Table 6). The Freight TSI September 2006 level fell 1.0 percent from the September 2005 level, the second consecutive decline from September of the previous year and the largest September-to-September decline since 2001 (Table 7). For the first nine months of 2006, the Freight TSI fell 1.3 percent, the second consecutive decline in the December-to-September period and the biggest decline in the period since 2000 (Table 3). Transportation Services Index for PassengersThe TSI for passengers rose 1.7 percent in September from the August level, climbing after a one-month decline (Table 8). The Passenger TSI September 2006 level fell 0.7 percent from the September 2005 level, the first September-to-September decline since 2001 (Table 9). For the first nine months of 2006, the Passenger TSI rose 1.1 percent, continuing a string of five consecutive December-to-September increases that began in 2002 (Table 3). 3rd Quarter 2006 ChangesOn a quarterly basis, the TSI decline of 1.4 percent in the third quarter of 2006 was the first quarterly decrease following two consecutive quarterly rises (Table 10). The Freight TSI decreased 2.7 percent in the third quarter of 2006 following a one quarter rise (Table 11). The Passenger TSI increased 0.6 percent in the third quarter of 2006, rising after a decrease in the second quarter (Table 12). More on TSINOTE:TSI numbers for May 2006 (Total, Freight, and Passenger) were revised because of revisions in the output data of the component transportation services. The May TSI is 112.1, revised from the 112.4 reported in the October release. The May Freight TSI is 111.9, revised from 113.2. The May Passenger TSI is 112.2, revised from 110.2. The TSI for June, July, August and September are preliminary. TSI revision policy: TSI is updated monthly with the latest four months' index numbers considered preliminary. Each month BTS releases the latest preliminary TSI, and replaces the oldest preliminary TSI with a revised TSI. All other revisions are held until an annual comprehensive revision of the TSI which will be released at the end of the calendar year. More information about the revision policy and the TSI index is available at http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml. Table 1: Transportation Services Index Since March 2006
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| Month | TSI | Freight | Passenger | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index | Pct. Change | Index | Pct. Change | Index | Pct. Change | |
| March | 110.9 | 1.3 | 110.6 | 0.9 | 111.0 | 2.1 |
| April | 110.5 | -0.3 | 109.6 | -0.9 | 111.6 | 0.5 |
| MayR | 112.1 | 1.5 | 111.9 | 2.1 | 112.2 | 0.5 |
| JuneP | 111.9 | -0.2 | 112.6 | 0.6 | 110.0 | -1.9 |
| JulyP | 111.5 | -0.4 | 111.7 | -0.8 | 110.2 | 0.2 |
| AugustP | 108.7 | -2.5 | 108.1 | -3.2 | 108.8 | -1.2 |
| SeptemberP | 110.3 | 1.5 | 109.5 | 1.3 | 110.7 | 1.7 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 2: Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2003-2006
Percent change from previous month
| Month | 2003 % Growth | 2004 % Growth | 2005 % Growth | 2006 % Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | -1.0 | -1.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 |
| February | -1.9 | 2.8 | -1.4 | -1.3 |
| March | 0.9 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| April | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.0 | -0.3 |
| May | -0.2 | -0.4 | 0.4 | (R) 1.5 |
| June | 1.0 | 1.0 | -0.5 | (P) -0.2 |
| July | 1.3 | -0.2 | -0.1 | (P) -0.4 |
| August | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.1 | (P) -2.5 |
| September | 1.1 | 0.5 | -0.3 | (P) 1.5 |
| October | 0.7 | 0.1 | -0.9 | |
| November | -0.1 | 0.9 | 1.6 | |
| December | 2.3 | -0.3 | -0.9 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
Table 3: Transportation Services Index Year-to-Date Change, 1997-2006
Percent change from December of previous year
December to September
| Year | TSI | Freight | Passenger |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 4.7 |
| 1998 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 0.2 |
| 1999 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 5.0 |
| 2000 | -1.9 | -6.0 | 8.3 |
| 2001 | -6.7 | -0.4 | -21.0 |
| 2002 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 4.2 |
| 2003 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.1 |
| 2004 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 5.2 |
| 2005 | 0.8 | -0.6 | 4.5 |
| 2006P | -0.2 | -1.3 | 1.1 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 4: Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the September TSI
(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)
| Year | TSI | Percent change from same month previous year |
|---|---|---|
| 1997 | 94.7 | 8.8 |
| 1998 | 96.9 | 2.3 |
| 1999 | 102.0 | 5.3 |
| 2000 | 100.1 | -1.9 |
| 2001 | 92.0 | -8.1 |
| 2002 | 99.9 | 8.6 |
| 2003 | 102.8 | 2.9 |
| 2004 | 109.3 | 6.3 |
| 2005 | 110.8 | 1.4 |
| 2006P | 110.3 | -0.5 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 5: Transportation Services Index from Previous Years
Percent Change to 2006 (September to September)
| Percent change to September 2006 | Since August. . . | Duration in years |
|---|---|---|
| -0.5 | 2005 | 1 |
| 1.0 | 2004 | 2 |
| 7.3 | 2003 | 3 |
| 10.5 | 2002 | 4 |
| 19.9 | 2001 | 5 |
| 10.2 | 2000 | 6 |
| 8.1 | 1999 | 7 |
| 13.9 | 1998 | 8 |
| 16.5 | 1997 | 9 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: The percent changes to September 2006 are all preliminary.
Table 6: Freight Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2003-2006
Percent change from previous month
| Month | 2003 % Growth | 2004 % Growth | 2005 % Growth | 2006 % Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | -1.1 | -1.6 | 1.4 | 0.2 |
| February | -1.4 | 2.6 | -1.2 | -1.3 |
| March | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| April | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.0 | -0.9 |
| May | -1.2 | -0.3 | 0.2 | (R) 2.1 |
| June | 0.8 | 0.8 | -0.5 | (P) 0.6 |
| July | 0.5 | -0.5 | -0.5 | (P) -0.8 |
| August | -0.1 | -0.6 | 0.4 | (P) -3.2 |
| September | 0.6 | 0.5 | -1.3 | (P) 1.3 |
| October | 1.3 | -0.5 | -0.6 | |
| November | -0.8 | 1.3 | 2.0 | |
| December | 2.9 | -0.4 | -1.1 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
Table 7: Freight Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the September Freight TSI
(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)
| Year | Freight TSI | Percent change from same month previous year |
|---|---|---|
| 1997 | 96.3 | 10.0 |
| 1998 | 99.9 | 3.7 |
| 1999 | 104.0 | 4.2 |
| 2000 | 98.9 | -5.0 |
| 2001 | 97.4 | -1.5 |
| 2002 | 102.6 | 5.3 |
| 2003 | 104.5 | 1.9 |
| 2004 | 110.8 | 6.0 |
| 2005 | 110.6 | -0.2 |
| 2006P | 109.5 | -1.0 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 8: Passenger Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2003-2006
Percent change from previous month
| Month | 2003 % Growth | 2004 % Growth | 2005 % Growth | 2006 % Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | -0.8 | -1.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| February | -3.1 | 3.4 | -2.0 | -1.3 |
| March | 0.2 | 0.1 | 2.9 | 2.1 |
| April | -3.7 | 0.8 | -0.1 | 0.5 |
| May | 2.3 | -0.7 | 0.8 | (R) 0.5 |
| June | 1.5 | 1.6 | -0.5 | (P) -1.9 |
| July | 3.4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | (P) 0.2 |
| August | -0.6 | 0.1 | -1.3 | (P) -1.2 |
| September | 2.2 | 0.5 | 2.3 | (P) 1.7 |
| October | -0.7 | 1.6 | -1.9 | |
| November | 1.3 | -0.2 | 0.4 | |
| December | 1.1 | -0.2 | -0.4 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
Table 9: Passenger Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the September Passenger TSI
(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)
| Year | Passenger TSI | Percent change from same month previous year |
|---|---|---|
| 1997 | 90.8 | 6.3 |
| 1998 | 90.1 | -0.8 |
| 1999 | 97.2 | 8.0 |
| 2000 | 103.0 | 5.9 |
| 2001 | 79.3 | -23.0 |
| 2002 | 93.5 | 17.9 |
| 2003 | 98.7 | 5.5 |
| 2004 | 105.5 | 7.0 |
| 2005 | 111.5 | 5.7 |
| 2006P | 110.7 | -0.7 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 10: Transportation Services Index Change by Quarter, 1997-2006
Percent change from the last month of the previous quarter
| Year | 1st Quarter (Jan-Mar) % Growth | 2nd Quarter (Apr-Jun) % Growth | 3rd Quarter (Jul-Sep) % Growth | 4th Quarter (Oct-Dec) % Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 4.0 | 0.3 |
| 1998 | 1.1 | 1.8 | -0.9 | 0.9 |
| 1999 | 2.3 | -0.2 | 2.3 | 0.0 |
| 2000 | -2.5 | 0.8 | -0.1 | -1.6 |
| 2001 | 1.0 | -0.3 | -7.3 | 3.3 |
| 2002 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 2.6 |
| 2003 | -2.0 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 2.9 |
| 2004 | 2.0 | 1.3 | -0.1 | 0.6 |
| 2005 | 1.5 | -0.2 | -0.5 | -0.3 |
| 2006 | 0.3 | (P) 0.9 | (P) -1.4 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 11: Freight Transportation Services Index Change by Quarter, 1997-2006
Percent change from the last month of the previous quarter
| Year | 1st Quarter (Jan-Mar) % Growth | 2nd Quarter (Apr-Jun) % Growth | 3rd Quarter (Jul-Sep) % Growth | 4th Quarter (Oct-Dec) % Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 0.8 |
| 1998 | 1.8 | 2.6 | -1.5 | 0.0 |
| 1999 | 2.9 | -0.4 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| 2000 | -5.1 | 0.5 | -1.4 | -1.1 |
| 2001 | 1.3 | -0.2 | -1.5 | -0.1 |
| 2002 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| 2003 | -1.3 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 3.5 |
| 2004 | 1.9 | 1.1 | -0.6 | 0.4 |
| 2005 | 1.2 | -0.3 | -1.4 | 0.3 |
| 2006 | -0.3 | (P) 1.8 | (P) -2.7 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 12: Passenger Transportation Services Index Change by Quarter, 1997-2006
Percent Change from the last month of the previous quarter
| Year | 1st Quarter (Jan-Mar) % Growth | 2nd Quarter (Apr-Jun) % Growth | 3rd Quarter (Jul-Sep) % Growth | 4th Quarter (Oct-Dec) % Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 | 1.5 | -0.3 | 3.5 | -1.0 |
| 1998 | -0.3 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 2.8 |
| 1999 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 3.7 | -2.3 |
| 2000 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 2.7 | -2.5 |
| 2001 | 0.4 | -0.6 | -20.9 | 13.2 |
| 2002 | 4.0 | 0.7 | -0.5 | 4.3 |
| 2003 | -3.7 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 |
| 2004 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| 2005 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 1.9 | -1.9 |
| 2006 | 1.4 | (P) -0.9 | (P) 0.6 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Brief Explanation of the TSI
The Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries.
The TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future course of the economy. The movement of the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The TSI is still under development and is therefore considered experimental. It is being examined for refinements in data sources, methodologies and interpretations.
The freight transportation index consists of:
For hire trucking,
Railroad freight services (including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars),
Inland waterways transportation,
Pipeline transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and natural gas), and
Air freight.
The index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service.
The passenger transportation index consists of:
Local transit,
Intercity passenger rail, and
Passenger air transportation.
The index does not include intercity bus, sight seeing services, ferry services, taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized transportation.