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Transportation Services Index (TSI) Fell 0.1 Percent in January from December
Tuesday, March 7, 2006 - The Transportation Services Index (TSI) fell 0.1 percent in January from its December level, falling for the second consecutive month, the U.S. Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported today in the first release of the index on an accelerated schedule (Table 1). Beginning with this release, BTS, a part of the Research and Innovative Technology Administration (RITA), will be releasing the TSI one month after the end of the reference period. Previous releases were issued two months following the reference period. The December index and annual index numbers through 2005 are included in this release. The January decline of 0.1 percent was the second consecutive monthly decline after a 1.2 percent rise in November (Table 2). The TSI, a combination of the freight and passenger indexes, declined in January, as did the passenger TSI. In comparison, both indexes rose to start 2005. The freight index increased in January by a smaller amount than it did a year ago (Table 3). The January level of 111.3 for the combined freight and passenger index was 0.3 percent lower than the January 2005 level, the first decline from January of the previous year since 2002 (Table 4). The January level was 9.5 percent higher than the January level of the base year of 2000 (Table 5). TSI is a single seasonally adjusted index of the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries, including railroad, air, truck, inland waterways, pipeline, and local transit. The index includes historic data from 1990 to the present. The TSI is still under development and is considered experimental. The index measures changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. Release of February numbers is scheduled for April 6. Transportation Services Index for FreightThe TSI for freight rose 0.5 percent in January from the December level, rising after a one-month decrease (Table 6). The Freight TSI January 2006 level is 0.5 percent lower than the January 2005 level, the first decline from January of the previous year since 2002 (Table 7). Transportation Services Index for PassengersThe TSI for passengers fell 1.2 percent in January from the December level, falling after a one-month increase (Table 8). The Passenger TSI January 2006 level is 0.3 percent higher than the January 2005 level, the smallest increase from January of the previous year since a decline in 2002 (Table 9). 2005 Annual and 4th Quarter 2005 ChangesThe combined TSI and its components all increased in 2005 for the fourth consecutive year. The TSI gain of 1.2 percent in 2005 was the smallest annual increase since a 3.6 percent decline in 2001. The Freight TSI gain of 0.5 percent in 2005 was the smallest annual increase since a 0.6 percent decline in 2001. The Passenger TSI gain of 3.0 percent was smaller than the 2004 increase but slightly larger than its 2003 increase (Table 10). On a quarterly basis, the TSI rise of 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2005 was the first quarterly increase since the first quarter of 2005, when the index rose 1.5 percent (Table 11). The Freight TSI increase of 1.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2005 was the first quarterly increase since the first quarter of 2005 (Table 12). The Passenger TSI decrease of 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2005 was the first quarterly decrease since the first quarter of 2003 following nine consecutive quarterly increases (Table 13). More on TSINOTE:TSI numbers for September 2005 (Total, Freight, and Passenger) were revised because of revisions in the output data of the component transportation services. The September TSI is 110.8, revised from the 111.6 reported in the February release. The September Freight TSI is 110.6, revised from the 111.8. The September Passenger TSI is 111.5, revised from the 110.9. The TSI for October, November, December and January are preliminary. TSI revision policy: TSI is updated monthly with the latest four months' index numbers considered preliminary. Each month BTS releases the latest preliminary TSI, and replaces the oldest preliminary TSI with a revised TSI. All other revisions are held until an annual comprehensive revision of the TSI which will be released as part of the following June TSI release. More information about the revision policy and the TSI index is available at http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml. Table 1: Percent changes in the Transportation Services Index by Month
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| TSI | Freight | Passenger | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index | Pct. Change | Index | Pct. Change | Index | Pct. Change | |
| July | 111.3 | -0.1 | 111.6 | -0.5 | 110.4 | 0.9 |
| August | 111.2 | -0.1 | 112.0 | 0.4 | 109.0 | -1.3 |
| SeptemberR | 110.8 | -0.3 | 110.6 | -1.3 | 111.5 | 2.3 |
| OctoberP | 110.9 | 0.0 | 111.3 | 0.6 | 109.7 | -1.7 |
| NovemberP | 112.2 | 1.2 | 113.2 | 1.7 | 109.5 | -0.2 |
| DecemberP | 111.3 | -0.8 | 111.8 | -1.3 | 110.0 | 0.5 |
| JanuaryP | 111.3 | -0.1 | 112.3 | 0.5 | 108.7 | -1.2 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
Table 2: Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2003-2006
Percentage change from previous month
| 2003 % Growth | 2004 % Growth | 2005 % Growth | 2006 % Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | -1.0 | -1.4 | 1.5 | (P) -0.1 |
| February | -1.9 | 2.8 | -1.4 | |
| March | 0.9 | 0.7 | 1.5 | |
| April | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.0 | |
| May | -0.2 | -0.4 | 0.4 | |
| June | 1.0 | 1.0 | -0.5 | |
| July | 1.3 | -0.2 | -0.1 | |
| August | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.1 | |
| September | 1.1 | 0.5 | (R) -0.3 | |
| October | 0.7 | 0.1 | (P) 0.0 | |
| November | -0.1 | 0.9 | (P) 1.2 | |
| December | 2.3 | -0.3 | (P) -0.8 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
Table 3: Transportation Services Index Year-to-Date Change, 1997-2006
Percentage change from December of previous year
December to January
| Year | TSI | Freight | Passenger |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 1998 | -0.6 | -0.9 | -0.1 |
| 1999 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| 2000 | -0.4 | -0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2001 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 |
| 2002 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 2.0 |
| 2003 | -1.0 | -1.1 | -0.8 |
| 2004 | -1.4 | -1.6 | -1.1 |
| 2005 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| 2006P | -0.1 | 0.5 | -1.2 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 4: Percent changes in the Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
January TSI (Monthly average of 2000 = 100)
| TSI | Percent change from same month previous year | |
|---|---|---|
| 1997 | 89.2 | 7.7 |
| 1998 | 95.9 | 7.5 |
| 1999 | 98.2 | 2.4 |
| 2000 | 101.6 | 3.5 |
| 2001 | 99.7 | -1.9 |
| 2002 | 96.1 | -3.6 |
| 2003 | 101.4 | 5.5 |
| 2004 | 104.3 | 2.9 |
| 2005 | 111.6 | 7.0 |
| 2006P | 111.3 | -0.3 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 5: Percent Changes in the Transportation Services Index from Previous Years to 2006
January to January
| Percent change to January 2006 | Since January. . . | Duration in years |
|---|---|---|
| -0.3 | 2005 | 1 |
| 6.7 | 2004 | 2 |
| 9.7 | 2003 | 3 |
| 15.7 | 2002 | 4 |
| 11.6 | 2001 | 5 |
| 9.5 | 2000 | 6 |
| 13.3 | 1999 | 7 |
| 16.0 | 1998 | 8 |
| 24.7 | 1997 | 9 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: The percent changes to January 2006 are all preliminary.
Table 6: Freight Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2003-2006
Percentage change from previous month
| 2003 % Growth | 2004 % Growth | 2005 % Growth | 2006 % Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | -1.1 | -1.6 | 1.4 | (P) 0.5 |
| February | -1.4 | 2.6 | -1.2 | |
| March | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.0 | |
| April | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.0 | |
| May | -1.2 | -0.3 | 0.2 | |
| June | 0.8 | 0.8 | -0.5 | |
| July | 0.5 | -0.5 | -0.5 | |
| August | -0.1 | -0.6 | 0.4 | |
| September | 0.6 | 0.5 | (R) -1.3 | |
| October | 1.3 | -0.5 | (P) 0.6 | |
| November | -0.8 | 1.3 | (P) 1.7 | |
| December | 2.9 | -0.4 | (P) -1.3 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
Table 7: Percent changes in the Freight Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
January Freight TSI (Monthly average of 2000 = 100)
| Freight TSI | Percent change from same month previous year | |
|---|---|---|
| 1997 | 89.9 | 7.6 |
| 1998 | 98.4 | 9.5 |
| 1999 | 100.1 | 1.6 |
| 2000 | 104.4 | 4.3 |
| 2001 | 99.2 | -4.9 |
| 2002 | 98.1 | -1.2 |
| 2003 | 103.3 | 5.4 |
| 2004 | 106.4 | 3.0 |
| 2005 | 112.8 | 6.0 |
| 2006P | 112.3 | -0.5 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 8: Passenger Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2003-2006
Percentage change from previous month
| 2003 % Growth | 2004 % Growth | 2005 % Growth | 2006 % Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | -0.8 | -1.1 | 1.5 | (P) -1.2 |
| February | -3.1 | 3.4 | -2.0 | |
| March | 0.2 | 0.1 | 2.9 | |
| April | -3.7 | 0.8 | -0.1 | |
| May | 2.3 | -0.7 | 0.8 | |
| June | 1.5 | 1.6 | -0.5 | |
| July | 3.4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | |
| August | -0.6 | 0.1 | -1.3 | |
| September | 2.2 | 0.5 | (R) 2.3 | |
| October | -0.7 | 1.6 | (P) -1.7 | |
| November | 1.3 | -0.2 | (P) -0.2 | |
| December | 1.1 | -0.2 | (P) 0.5 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
Table 9: Percent changes in the Passenger Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
January Freight TSI (Monthly average of 2000 = 100)
| Passenger TSI | Percent change from same month previous year | |
|---|---|---|
| 1997 | 87.2 | 7.9 |
| 1998 | 90.1 | 3.4 |
| 1999 | 93.7 | 4.0 |
| 2000 | 95.2 | 1.6 |
| 2001 | 100.6 | 5.7 |
| 2002 | 91.5 | -9.0 |
| 2003 | 96.8 | 5.7 |
| 2004 | 99.2 | 2.5 |
| 2005 | 108.4 | 9.2 |
| 2006P | 108.7 | 0.3 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 10: Transportation Services Index Annual Change, 1996-2005
Percentage change from December of previous year December to December
| Year | TSI | Freight | Passenger |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 6.0 |
| 1997 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 3.6 |
| 1998 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| 1999 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 2.6 |
| 2000 | -3.4 | -7.0 | 5.6 |
| 2001 | -3.6 | -0.6 | -10.6 |
| 2002 | 7.8 | 7.5 | 8.8 |
| 2003 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| 2004 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 6.4 |
| 2005P | 1.2 | 0.5 | 3.0 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 11: Transportation Services Index Change by Quarter, 1996-2005
Percentage change from the last month of the previous quarter
| Year | 1st Quarter (Jan-Mar) % Growth | 2nd Quarter (Apr-Jun) % Growth | 3rd Quarter (Jul-Sep) % Growth | 4th Quarter (Oct-Dec) % Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 1.6 |
| 1997 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 4.0 | 0.3 |
| 1998 | 1.1 | 1.8 | -0.9 | 0.9 |
| 1999 | 2.3 | -0.2 | 2.3 | 0.0 |
| 2000 | -2.5 | 0.8 | -0.1 | -1.6 |
| 2001 | 1.0 | -0.3 | -7.3 | 3.3 |
| 2002 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 2.6 |
| 2003 | -2.0 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 2.9 |
| 2004 | 2.0 | 1.3 | -0.1 | 0.6 |
| 2005 | 1.5 | -0.2 | -0.5 | (P) 0.4 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 12: Freight Transportation Services Index Change by Quarter, 1996-2005
Percentage change from the last month of the previous quarter
| Year | 1st Quarter (Jan-Mar) % Growth | 2nd Quarter (Apr-Jun) % Growth | 3rd Quarter (Jul-Sep) % Growth | 4th Quarter (Oct-Dec) % Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 0.8 |
| 1998 | 1.8 | 2.6 | -1.5 | 0.0 |
| 1999 | 2.9 | -0.4 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| 2000 | -5.1 | 0.5 | -1.4 | -1.1 |
| 2001 | 1.3 | -0.2 | -1.5 | -0.1 |
| 2002 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| 2003 | -1.3 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 3.5 |
| 2004 | 1.9 | 1.1 | -0.6 | 0.4 |
| 2005 | 1.2 | -0.3 | -1.4 | (P) 1.1 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 13: Passenger Transportation Services Index Change by Quarter, 1996-2005
Percentage change from the last month of the previous quarter
| Year | 1st Quarter (Jan-Mar) % Growth | 2nd Quarter (Apr-Jun) % Growth | 3rd Quarter (Jul-Sep) % Growth | 4th Quarter (Oct-Dec) % Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| 1997 | 1.5 | -0.3 | 3.5 | -1.0 |
| 1998 | -0.3 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 2.8 |
| 1999 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 3.7 | -2.3 |
| 2000 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 2.7 | -2.5 |
| 2001 | 0.4 | -0.6 | -20.9 | 13.2 |
| 2002 | 4.0 | 0.7 | -0.5 | 4.3 |
| 2003 | -3.7 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 |
| 2004 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| 2005 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 1.9 | (P) -1.4 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Brief Explanation of the TSI
The Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries.
The TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future course of the economy. The movement of the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The TSI is still under development and is therefore considered experimental. It is being examined for refinements in data sources, methodologies and interpretations.
The freight transportation index consists of:
For hire trucking,
Railroad freight services (including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars),
Inland waterways transportation,
Pipeline transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and natural gas), and
Air freight.
The index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service.
The passenger transportation index consists of:
Local transit,
Intercity passenger rail, and
Passenger air transportation.
The index does not include intercity bus, sight seeing services, ferry services, taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized transportation.