AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS66 KOTX 161733 AAA
 AFDOTX
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
 1033 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2008
 
 .SYNOPSIS...
 HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST
 THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PUSH WELL
 ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION 
 WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT RISK FOR 
 THUNDERSTORMS. A GENERAL COOLING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW 
 INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 
 
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 .UPDATE...FIRES ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON COUPLED WITH THE RIDGE
 AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN US HAS
 RESULTED IN HAZE ACROSS EASTERN WA AND NORTH ID THIS MORNING. HAVE
 UPDATED THE SKY AND WEATHER FOR TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HAZE. THE
 HAZE WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS
 THROUGH THE DAY.  /NISBET
 
 
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 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2008/
 
 TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS TO
 COOL FCST HI TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON SLIGHTLY FOR A NUMBER OF
 SITES AFTER APPLYING 2 TO 4 DEGREES OF WARMING TO THE HI TEMPS
 MON. EVEN SO...WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A FEW SITES TOPPING OUT
 CLOSE TO RECORD HI TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WRN BASIN ZONES
 NEAR THE CASCADES. THE MOST NOTABLE BEING KOMK WITH A FCST WITHIN
 ONE DEGREE OF THE RECORD. FOR FIRE WEATHER...WE`LL REMAIN UNDER
 THE HOT/UNSTABLE AIRMASS AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. HIGH HAINES INDEX
 VALUES (NEAR 5 TO 6) COMBINED WITH LOW RH STILL LOOKS LIKELY. THE
 CURRENT FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING
 FOR ALL BUT ID ZONE 101 FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH WED EVENING. BZ
 
 WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN
 STORE OVER THE CWA WITH A RATHER DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE...AND THE
 UPSTREAM AIR MASSES LOOK TO BE CONTINUALLY DRY AS WELL...AT LEAST
 IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS. THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
 IN LINE WITH THE THINKING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST FROM
 LAST NIGHT...WITH THE MODELS REALLY LATCHING ONTO A SIMILAR
 SOLUTION WITH RUNNING THE UPPER LOW NEAR 35N/125W AT THE MOMENT
 NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA AS IT OPENS UP THURSDAY.
 HOWEVER...CURRENTLY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS WELL AS MODEL RH FIELDS
 SUGGEST LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY BELOW 500
 MB...AND WHAT INSTABILITY IS ON THE MODELS SEEMS TO LAG BEHIND THE
 UPPER MOISTURE FIELDS ANYWAY. AS A RESULT...POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
 NIGHT AND THURSDAY HAVE BEEN SUMMARILY ROLLED BACK WITH LITTLE
 SUPPORT IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND LACK OF A DEEP MOIST OR UNSTABLE
 LAYER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEGATIVELY-TILTED WAVE THAT
 TRAVERSES THE AREA DURING THAT JUNCTURE.
 
 OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE HEAT. THE MODELS HAVE
 GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD WELL ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS EXTENDING
 THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...IF NOT SATURDAY...AS THE SOUTHERN ROUTE
 FOR THE SYSTEM BEARING DOWN ON 150W OVER THE PACIFIC HAS BECOME
 CLEARLY FAVORED BY MODEL GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT...RIDGING ARCING
 OVER THE TOP OF THAT SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE CWA HIGH AND DRY...AND
 ALLOW FOR CONTINUED WARMTH UNDER THE BENT BACK RIDGING STRUCTURE
 UNTIL THE WEEKEND AS AFTERNOON 850 MB TEMPERATURES SURGE TOWARD
 THE MID 20S CELSIUS WEDNESDAY AND LOW 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
 ACROSS THE CWA. THE RESULT WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN MANY
 LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY AND ONLY NOMINAL COOLING FOR THURSDAY AND
 FRIDAY...YET STILL MUCH ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS. /FRIES
 
 &&
 .AVIATION...
 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH
 PRESSURE WILL MEAN DRY AND GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...WITH LIGHT 
 TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS. HAZE FROM FIRES IN OREGON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
 EAST AND THIN THROUGH THE DAY.
 
 &&
 
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
 SPOKANE        87  53  91  57  86  54 /   0   0   0  10  10  10 
 COEUR D`ALENE  87  48  91  53  86  51 /   0   0   0  10  10  10 
 PULLMAN        89  47  92  51  87  49 /   0   0   0  10  10  10 
 LEWISTON       92  56  96  59  92  57 /   0   0   0  10  10  10 
 COLVILLE       93  41  92  49  87  48 /   0   0   0  10  10  10 
 SANDPOINT      80  42  85  47  82  48 /   0   0   0  10  10  10 
 KELLOGG        87  49  91  57  86  52 /   0   0   0  10  10  10 
 MOSES LAKE     89  50  94  56  89  52 /   0   0   0  10  10  10 
 WENATCHEE      88  55  93  61  87  56 /   0   0   0  10   0  10 
 OMAK           90  51  94  55  90  53 /   0   0   0  10   0  10 
 
 &&
 
 .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 ID...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING 
      FOR CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS...COEUR D`ALENE AREA...
      IDAHO PALOUSE...NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
 
 WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING 
      FOR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS...OKANOGAN 
      VALLEY...SPOKANE AREA.
 
      RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY 
      FOR LOWER GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES...MOSES LAKE AREA...
      NORTHEAST BLUE MOUNTAINS.
 
      RED FLAG WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT 
 WEDNESDAY      FOR EAST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES...UPPER COLUMBIA 
 BASIN...     WASHINGTON PALOUSE...WATERVILLE PLATEAU...WENATCHEE 
 AREA.
 
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