June 30, 2005
Phebe Marr, Senior Fellow
Charting Iraq’s Future: Iraq's Emerging Political Leadership
Report Summary
To better understand the political trajectory of Iraq, Dr. Phebe Marr researched and analyzed the background, political orientations, and policy priorities of Iraq’s emerging leaders. In her remarks, she placed particular emphasis on the January 2005 election results because it indicates the direction of Iraq’s political dynamics. According to Dr. Marr, a major trend is clear: Iraq has shifted from a highly centralized country with a nationalist orientation and a state supported middle class to the politics of “cultural identity.” She reviewed the composition of the major political blocs and highlighted the key issues they face in drawing up the constitution and formulating governing policy, providing insight on where there are commonalities of outlook among leaders, and where the sharpest divergences lie.
Essentially, the Iraqi elections of January 2005 produced two successful alliances, a “Shi’ah” bloc, the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), and the Kurdish List. The third, less successful but future potential contender, is the secular, centrist Iraqi List. In all cases, the leadership was a mix of newcomers and more seasoned opposition politicians. Because they did not participate in the election in large numbers, Sunni Muslims are largely underrepresented in the current Iraqi government. Dr. Marr argued that the small centrist bloc may take on the role of loyal opposition in the parliament. Voting was organized largely around alliances based on ethnicity and sect, rather than on platforms based on mutual interests or policies. In the process, the sense of Iraqi identity weakened, and divisions between the ethnic and religious groups increased.
Replicas of Saddam Hussein's head, which once adorned the roof of one of his palaces, now gather dust in a vacant lot in Baghdad's International Zone.
Dr. Marr claimed that Iraqi leaders will need to work hard to find a new vision around which Iraqis can coalesce and cooperate. There is little cohesion on the issue of the new state structure besides a broad commitment to “democracy” and “federalism.” Support for federalism and a broader devolution of power to local and provincial bodies, she argued, may be spreading beyond the Kurdish region to areas in the south. It is questionable whether this can be accomplished without splitting Iraq along ethnic and even sectarian lines, given the strong trend running in favor of communal identity. She recommended that shifting the new electoral law more in favor of local constituencies and against the national single list system would help move the trend away from ethnic and sectarian blocs and better reflect Iraq’s diversity.
Also, many middle class Iraqis, whether Shi’ah, Kurds or Sunnis, want room for secularism and some separation of mosque and state. However, Dr. Marr pointed out that this runs counter to the dominant trend in the winning Shi’ah coalition and growing Islamist Sunnis. These leaders want Iraq to have an Islamic identity and to have shari’ah law included in the constitution and play a greater role within the state and society. Still, there is also disagreement about how dominant Islamic law should be. The boundaries of religious and secular space will probably be fought over for many years to come.
Dr. Marr concluded by observing that economic development is not a current focus of the groups in power. The economy is an issue that local and provincial leaders—and the populace—put first, possibly indicating a divide between the elites in Baghdad and their constituencies. In addition to continued complaints about widespread insecurity, Iraqi citizens have vocalized their dissatisfaction with unemployment, lack of services, and slow economic development. Dr. Marr suggested that a strong economy and the resulting benefits are probably the strongest forces that could tie Iraqis together.
Phebe Marr is a prominent historian of modern Iraq. Her acclaimed book The Modern History of Iraq is widely used in universities—a revised edition was released in 2003. Her academic career included positions as research professor at the National Defense University, as well as professor of history at the University of Tennessee and at Stanislaus State University in California. She has authored many articles and reports on Iraqi politics under Saddam’s regime, frequently contributes to media discussions about Iraq, and has consulted regularly with the legislative and executive branches of the U.S. government about Iraq policy.
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Of Related Interest
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