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Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) Rose 0.7 Percent in November from October
Wednesday, January 9, 2008 - The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) rose 0.7 percent in November from its October level, rising for the second consecutive month, the U.S. Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported today (Table 1). The November rise was the fourth in the last five months (Table 2). At 110.2, the freight TSI is down 2.6 percent from its peak of 113.1 achieved in November 2005 and up 1.9 percent in the two months from its recent low of 108.1 in September 2007. For additional historical data, go to http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml. The freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire freight transportation industries. The index consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight. The November increase kept the freight index in positive territory for the year after having been down for the first nine months. For the first 11 months of 2007, the freight TSI was up 1.2 percent. In 2006, the index declined 2.7 percent during the 11-month period (Table 3). The November freight TSI of 110.2 was up 1.8 percent from its November 2006 level, its best November-to-November performance in the last three years (Table 4). The November index remains lower than November levels of the recent past, 1.1 percent lower than the November 2004 level and 2.6 percent lower than the November 2005 level. Despite declines from these recent November levels, the freight index has increased 6.3 percent in five years and 14.6 percent in 10 years (Table 5). The TSI is an index of the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by for-hire transportation industries. It includes historic data from 1990 to the present. The TSI is still under development and is considered experimental. The seasonally adjusted index measures changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. Release of the December index is scheduled for Feb. 13. BTS has issued a new technical report explaining the TSI. BTS Technical Report: Transportation Services Index and the Economy is available for download at https://www.bts.gov/pdc/index.xml in the BTS bookstore. Transportation Services Index for PassengersThe TSI for passengers fell 0.9 percent in November from its October level, falling for the second consecutive month (Table 6). The Passenger TSI November 2007 level of 115.0 was 1.8 percent higher than the November 2006 level, marking six consecutive annual increases since November 2001 (Table 7). For the first 11 months of 2007, the passenger TSI rose 0.7 percent, the smallest of the six consecutive increases during the first 11 months (Table 3). The passenger index is up 19.8 percent in five years and 28.3 percent in 10 years (Table 5). The passenger TSI measures the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire passenger transportation industries. The seasonally adjusted index consists of data from air, local transit and intercity rail. Combined Freight and Passenger IndexThe combined freight and passenger TSI rose 0.3 percent in November from its October level, rising for the second consecutive month (Table 8). The combined TSI November 2007 level of 111.0 was 1.8 percent higher than the November 2006 level (Table 9). For the first 11 months of 2007, the combined TSI rose 1.1 percent (Table 3). The combined index is up 9.6 percent in five years and 18.1 percent in 10 years (Table 5). The combined TSI merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single index. More on TSINOTE: TSI numbers for July (Freight, Passenger and Combined) were revised because of revisions in the output data of the component transportation services. The July Freight TSI is 108.4, revised from the 108.5 reported in the December release. The July Passenger TSI is 116.2, revised from 114.8. The July Combined TSI is 109.9, revised from 109.7. The TSI for August, September, October and November are preliminary. TSI revision policy: TSI is updated monthly with the latest four months' index numbers considered preliminary. Each month BTS releases the latest preliminary TSI, and replaces the oldest preliminary TSI with a revised TSI. More information about the monthly revision policy, the 2007 comprehensive revision conducted with the July release and the TSI index is available at http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml. Table 1: Freight,
Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes since May 2007
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| Freight | Passenger | Combined | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index | Pct. Change | Index | Pct. Change | Index | Pct. Change | |
| May | 109.2 | -0.1 | 116.5 | 1.5 | 110.6 | 0.3 |
| June | 108.4 | -0.7 | 116.2 | -0.2 | 109.9 | -0.6 |
| JulyR | 108.4 | 0.1 | 116.2 | -0.1 | 109.9 | 0.0 |
| AugustP | 108.9 | 0.4 | 115.1 | -0.9 | 110.1 | 0.1 |
| SeptemberP | 108.1 | -0.7 | 117.2 | 1.8 | 109.9 | -0.1 |
| OctoberP | 109.5 | 1.3 | 116.0 | -1.0 | 110.7 | 0.7 |
| NovemberP | 110.2 | 0.7 | 115.0 | -0.9 | 111.0 | 0.3 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 2: Freight
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2004-2007
Percent change from
previous month
| 2004 % Growth | 2005 % Growth | 2006 % Growth | 2007 % Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | -1.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | -0.3 |
| February | 3.0 | -0.9 | -1.4 | 0.0 |
| March | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.1 |
| April | 0.7 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.4 |
| May | -0.4 | 0.0 | 2.4 | -0.1 |
| June | 0.3 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.7 |
| July | -0.2 | -0.5 | -0.9 | (R) 0.1 |
| August | -0.4 | 1.0 | -2.5 | (P) 0.4 |
| September | 0.2 | -1.3 | 0.9 | (P) -0.7 |
| October | 0.2 | -0.3 | -0.1 | (P) 1.3 |
| November | 1.2 | 2.8 | -1.4 | (P) 0.7 |
| December | -0.4 | -1.7 | 0.6 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
Table 3: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation
Services Indexes Year-to Date Change, 1998-2007
Percent change from December of previous year
December to November
| Year | Freight | Passenger | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 4.0 |
| 1999 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 4.7 |
| 2000 | -5.6 | 7.7 | -1.6 |
| 2001 | -0.2 | -14.3 | -4.7 |
| 2002 | 6.6 | 5.2 | 6.2 |
| 2003 | 0.7 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 2004 | 3.1 | 5.9 | 3.9 |
| 2005 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.3 |
| 2006 | -2.7 | 3.8 | -1.2 |
| 2007P | 1.2 | 0.7 | 1.1 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 4: Freight
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the
November Freight TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
| Freight TSI | Percent change from same month previous year | |
|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 100.8 | 4.8 |
| 1999 | 104.1 | 3.3 |
| 2000 | 99.1 | -4.8 |
| 2001 | 97.6 | -1.5 |
| 2002 | 103.7 | 6.2 |
| 2003 | 105.3 | 1.6 |
| 2004 | 111.4 | 5.8 |
| 2005 | 113.1 | 1.6 |
| 2006 | 108.3 | -4.3 |
| 2007P | 110.2 | 1.8 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 5:
Transportation Services Indexes from Previous Years
Percent Change to 2007
(November to November)
| Since November. . . | Duration in years | Freight TSI Percent change to November 2007 | Passenger TSI Percent change to November 2007 | Combined TSI Percent change to November 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 1 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| 2005 | 2 | -2.6 | 4.8 | -0.9 |
| 2004 | 3 | -1.1 | 8.1 | 1.1 |
| 2003 | 4 | 4.6 | 15.2 | 7.1 |
| 2002 | 5 | 6.3 | 19.8 | 9.6 |
| 2001 | 6 | 12.9 | 32.9 | 17.8 |
| 2000 | 7 | 11.2 | 12.1 | 10.8 |
| 1999 | 8 | 5.8 | 16.4 | 8.4 |
| 1998 | 9 | 9.3 | 23.3 | 12.9 |
| 1997 | 10 | 14.6 | 28.3 | 18.1 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: The percent changes to October 2007 are all preliminary.
Table 6: Passenger
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2004-2007
Percent change from previous
month
| 2004 % Growth | 2005 % Growth | 2006 % Growth | 2007 % Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | -1.2 | 1.4 | 1.9 | -0.1 |
| February | 1.8 | -0.1 | -0.6 | -2.0 |
| March | 1.1 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| April | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| May | -0.3 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.5 |
| June | 1.6 | 0.1 | -1.0 | -0.2 |
| July | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.5 | (R) -0.1 |
| August | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | (P) -0.9 |
| September | -0.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | (P) 1.8 |
| October | 2.2 | -1.9 | 0.4 | (P) -1.0 |
| November | -0.9 | 0.7 | -0.2 | (P) -0.9 |
| December | -0.1 | -0.9 | 1.1 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
Table 7: Passenger
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the
November Passenger TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
| Passenger TSI | Percent change from same month previous year | |
|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 93.3 | 4.0 |
| 1999 | 98.8 | 6.0 |
| 2000 | 102.6 | 3.8 |
| 2001 | 86.5 | -15.7 |
| 2002 | 96.0 | 11.0 |
| 2003 | 99.8 | 3.9 |
| 2004 | 106.4 | 6.6 |
| 2005 | 109.8 | 3.2 |
| 2006 | 113.0 | 2.9 |
| 2007P | 115.0 | 1.8 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 8: Combined Transportation
Services Index Monthly Changes, 2004-2007
Percent change from
previous month
| 2004 % Growth | 2005 % Growth | 2006 % Growth | 2007 % Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | -1.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | -0.3 |
| February | 2.6 | -0.7 | -1.2 | -0.5 |
| March | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| April | 0.7 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.2 |
| May | -0.4 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 0.3 |
| June | 0.7 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.6 |
| July | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.6 | (R) 0.0 |
| August | -0.1 | 0.8 | -1.9 | (P) 0.1 |
| September | 0.1 | -0.6 | 0.9 | (P) -0.1 |
| October | 0.7 | -0.7 | 0.1 | (P) 0.7 |
| November | 0.6 | 2.3 | -1.1 | (P) 0.3 |
| December | -0.3 | -1.5 | 0.7 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
Table 9: Combined Transportation
Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the
November TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
| TSI | Percent change from same month previous year | |
|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 98.3 | 4.6 |
| 1999 | 102.4 | 4.1 |
| 2000 | 100.2 | -2.1 |
| 2001 | 94.3 | -6.0 |
| 2002 | 101.4 | 7.5 |
| 2003 | 103.6 | 2.3 |
| 2004 | 109.8 | 6.0 |
| 2005 | 112.0 | 2.0 |
| 2006 | 109.1 | -2.6 |
| 2007P | 111.0 | 1.8 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Brief Explanation of the TSI
The Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries.
The TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future course of the economy. The movement of the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The TSI is still under development and is therefore considered experimental. It is being examined for refinements in data sources, methodologies and interpretations.
The freight transportation index consists of:
For-hire
trucking,
Railroad
freight services
(including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars),
Inland
waterways transportation,
Pipeline
transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and
natural gas), and
Air
freight.
The index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service.
The passenger transportation index consists of:
Local
transit,
Intercity
passenger rail, and
Passenger
air transportation.
The index does not include intercity bus, sight seeing services, ferry services, taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized transportation.