Experimental Gulf of Mexico Nowcast/Forecast System

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration through its participation in the National Oceanographic Partnership Program initially funded Dynalysis to develop a nowcast/forecast system for the Gulf of Mexico. Further USN support through the Naval Oceanographic Office as part of the Northern Gulf of Mexico Littoral Initiative demonstrated the feasiblity of the system to provide regional modeling boundary conditions. To further this effort, NOS and Dynalysis are involved in a joint project to transfer this system to NOS. The system will be evaluated on an experimental basis for water levels and surface currents. The model grid and bathymetry encompasses the entire Gulf of Mexico and the Straits of Florida. The system is used to provide Gulf-wide water level and current forecasts as well as to directly provide water levels, density, and turbulence quantities to the NOS regional forecasts systems in Galveston Bay and Tampa Bay. Experimental short term 48 hr forecasts of water level, currents, salinity, and temperature are being performed on a daily basis. The forecasts are driven by: 1) COAMPS winds (1-hr) and atmospheric pressure (3-hr) fields, 2) persistence of observed streamflow (USGS and COE). The system is run in nowcast or update mode each day to initiate each experimental forecast by assimilating USN MODAS salinity and temperature fields as well as SSH. Once per week long term 90 day forecasts are performed to predict Loop Current evolution. The long range forecasts are initiated from the latest short-term update and use climatological river inflows

EXPERIMENTAL LONG TERM FORECAST RESULTS

For the latest information on the Dynalysis Project Component, please contact:
  H. James Herring
Dynalysis
Tel: (609) 918-0416

For the latest information on the NOS Project Component, please contact:
  Richard C. Patchen
NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory
Tel: (301) 713-2650 ext. 118
Fax: (301) 713-4501

Revised Friday October 22 2004by OCS Webmaster