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Drought Monitor: State-of-the-Art Blend of Science and SubjectivityWhat You SeeD0-D4: The Drought Monitor summary map identifies general drought areas, labelling droughts by intensity, with D1 being the least intense and D4 being the most intense. D0, drought watch areas, are either drying out and possibly heading for drought, or are recovering from drought but not yet back to normal, suffering long-term impacts such as low reservoir levels. A and H: Since "drought" means a moisture deficit bad enough to have social, environmental or economic effects, we generally include a description of what the primary physical effects are:
A = agricultural (crops, pastures, and grasslands)
The Thinking Behind the MapDrought intensity categories are based on five key indicators and numerous supplementary indicators. The accompanying drought severity classification table shows the ranges for each indicator for each dryness level. Because the ranges of the various indicators often don't coincide, the final drought category tends to be based on what the majority of the indicators show. The analysts producing the map also weight the indices according to how well they perform in various parts of the country and at different times of the year. Also, additional indicators are often needed in the West, where winter snowfall has a strong bearing on water supplies.
Short-term drought indicator blends focus on 1-3 month precipitation. Long-term blends focus on 6-60 months. Additional indices used, mainly during the growing season, include the USDA/NASS Topsoil Moisture, Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), and NOAA/NESDIS satellite Vegetation Health Indices. Indices used primarily during the snow season and in the West include snow water content, river basin precipitation, and the Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI). Other indicators include groundwater levels, reservoir storage, and pasture/range conditions. Reality CheckThough the maps are based on the key indices and other measures of moisture, the final maps are tweaked to reflect real-world conditions as reported by numerous experts throughout the country.
The PartnersA partnership consisting of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (Joint Agricultural Weather Facility and National Water and Climate Center), the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center, National Climatic Data Center, and the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska Lincoln produces the Drought Monitor. However, advice from many other sources is incorporated in the product, including virtually every government agency dealing with drought.
This Does Not Replace Local InformationThe Drought Monitor is intended to provide a general and up-to-date summary of current drought conditions across the 50 states, Puerto Rico, and the Pacific possessions. This national product is designed to provide the "big picture" so the general public, media, government officials, and others can see what is happening around the country. To keep the map from becoming too complex, the drought categories shown represent typical drought intensities, not every drought intensity, within the area. The map is not designed to depict local conditions or to replace drought warnings and watches issued by local or regional government entities. Local or state entities may be monitoring different indicators than those used in the Drought Monitor to meet specific needs or to address local problems. As a consequence, there could be water shortages or crop failures within an area not designated as drought, just as there could be locations with adequate water supplies in an area designated as D3 or D4 (extreme or exceptional) drought. |
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Updated January 2, 2008
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