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Brochures &
Information
Sheets
Web Cams &
Meteorological Data
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See also: Research |
Great Lakes Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System (AHPS) Products (Experimental)
(Based on choosing scenarios from 1948-1999)
On this page are links to plots for monthly values of inflow, outflow, total supply, mean lake level and other hydrology and meteorology variables for each of the Great Lakes and Lake St. Clair. Products include 18-month hindcast simulations and 9-month outlooks. Simply click on a lake in the ImageMap below to access the products. These products are updated daily.
Lake Superior | Lake Michigan | Lake Huron | Georgian Bay | Lake St. Clair | Lake Erie | Lake Ontario
Please note that the official lake level forecasts are available in the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Detroit District
Monthly Bulletin of Great Lakes Water Levels. The forecasts
presented here are used as just one input into the development of that
coordinated product every month.
These forecast values are based on our best estimate of current conditions (computed from available meteorological data), climatological forecasts and physical process models. They represent our best estimate of what will occur given an accurate climatological forecast.
These forecasts are probabilistic, and the values are non-exceedance quantiles. That is, for example, the 5% value is the value for which there is a 5% probability of the actual value being lower. Thus, the range between the 5% and 95% values is the range in which we expect the actual value to fall 90% of the time.
More information on the background and methods of generating an outlook is also provided.
For more information contact:
Tim Hunter, Computer Specialist734-741-2344
e-mail: tim.hunter@noaa.gov
Thomas E. Croley II, PhD, Research Hydrologist
734-741-2238
e-mail: tom.croley@noaa.gov
Last Updated: 2006-08-08 ks