GLERL Electronic Newsletter: 2008 Updates

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July 17, 2008

Contents
1) Impact of Climate Change on the Great Lakes Ecosystem - A NOAA Science Needs Assessment Workshop to Meet Emerging Challenges
2) New Joint Investigator
3) GLERL in the News
4) New Reprints
5) Web Hot Items
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1) Impact of Climate Change on the Great Lakes Ecosystem - A NOAA Science Needs Assessment Workshop to Meet Emerging Challenges
July 29-31, 2008
SNRE, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI

The overarching purpose of the workshop is to develop a NOAA research strategy that addresses climate change impact on Great Lakes coastal ecosystems as driven by user needs.
More information and the agenda can be found at http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/Programs/climate_change/cc_workshop.html
Pre-registration is required.  You can register on-line at the above URL.

2) New Joint Investigator
Dr. Jessica Head is a new CILER research investigator specializing in ecotoxicology. Dr. Head joins us from University of Ottawa in Canada.  Her profiles is available at: http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/about/pers/profiles/head.html

3) GLERL in the News
NY Times 6/17/2008 - Tiny, Clingy and Destructive, Mussel Makes Its Way West
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/17/science/17muss.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
quotes from Gary Fahnenstiel and Tom Nalepa

The Milwaukee Sentinel published two articles that describe recent changes in Lake Michigan and Lake Huron resulting from quagga mussels.   Be sure and click on the video links, one showing cladophera fouling Lake Michigan beaches, and the other showing underwater footage of mussel beds.
Part 1:
http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=766864

Part 2:
http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=767291

A quote from David Reid is included in this morning's Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.  Check it out...
"After Ruling, Lakes Still Face Great Risks: Ballast-Exchange Helps, but is No Guarantee, Some Say"
http://www.redorbit.com/news/science/1455609/after_ruling_lakes_still_face_great_risks_ballastexchange_helps_but/

Researchers say mussels choking Lake Michigan. 7/6/2008, 3:19 p.m. ET. The Associated Press             
"Researchers say Lake Michigan's ecosystem is suffering from an influx of quagga mussels, which more than tripled in number in the lake from 2005 to 2007.  Tom Nalepa is with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. He says the invasion of quagga mussels has disrupted the lake, causing fish to be thinner and clogging intake pipes at power plants.  The United States has proposed regulations in an effort to prevent the spread of invasive species like the quagga and zebra mussels in the Great Lakes. If approved, the new rules would require oceangoing ships to flush their ballast tanks with salt water before entering the St. Lawrence Seaway."

June 16, 2008

Contents
1) Chandler-Misener Award for Best Paper
2) IAGLR Abstracts
3) New Reprints
4) Web Hot Items
5) GLERL In the News
6) NOAA Climate Change Workshop - Save the Date

1) Chandler-Misener Award for Best Paper

GLERL/CILER researchers received the International Association of Great Lakes Research Chandler-Misener Award for the best paper published in the Journal of Great Lakes Research in 2007.  The paper:  Biophysical Model of Larval Yellow Perch Advection and Settlement in Lake Michigan by Dmitry Beletsky, Doran M. Mason, David J. Schwab, Edward S. Rutherford, John Janssen, David F. Clapp and John M. Dettmers.

2) IAGLR Abstracts

• ADLERSTEIN, S.A., NALEPA, T.F., and VANDERPLOEG, H.A.  Zebra Mussel Impacts on the Lower Food Web in Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron: 1990-1996. We characterized temporal-spatial trends in phytoplankton, zooplankton, and benthos in Saginaw Bay prior to zebra mussel invasion, over peak densities and stabilization. We used density data of main taxonomic groups quantified during a bay-wide NOAA-Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratories monitoring program and generalized linear models. Zebra mussels were first found in 1991, reached peaks from 1992 to 1994 depending on location, and later remained at more stable levels. Densities were higher in stations with harder substrates. Phytoplankton and zooplankton declined uniformly within the bay consistent with the zebra mussel invasion. Densities of all phytoplankton groups declined starting in 1991 or within the next three years. The most immediate and noticeable decrease was for cyanophytes with disappearance of photosensitive species. Densities recovered during the study period except for cyanophytes and chlorophytes. All zooplankton groups declined after 1990 and showed some recovery. While cyclopoids and cladocerans exhibited lowest densities in 1993, calanoids and rotifers continued to decline until 1995. Macroinvertebrate trends differed by group and substrate, and mussel effects are harder to demonstrate. Results are invaluable to understand invasion responses at the ecosystem levels and to design future monitoring.
  
• ANDERSON, E.J., SCHWAB, D.J., HOLTSCHLAG, D.J., and LANG, G.A., An Operational 2-Dimensional Hydrodynamic Model of the St. Clair-Detroit River Waterway: Implementation into the Great Lakes Forecasting System (GLFS). A Computational model has been created for the St. Clair-Detroit River Waterway connecting Lake Huron and Lake Erie. The two-dimensional (RMA2) unstructured model was developed (Holtschlag 2002) to predict water levels and flow velocities in the system, and is now linked with the Great Lakes Forecasting System (GLFS) in order to provide operational nowcasting and forecasting. Water levels near the Huron-St. Clair River and Erie-Detroit River mouths in conjunction with wind forcing data from Lake St. Clair are used to drive the model for both hindcast and nowcast simulations, where lake levels from GLFS predictions are used in order to provide system forecasts. Water levels are compared to observed data from 10 NOAA gage stations located along the St. Clair-Detroit River waterway. Calibration to water level boundary conditions with these stations as well as adjustments to Manning’s-n roughness parameters within the system bring level predictions to within 2 cm of recorded gage station water levels for nowcast and monthly hindcasts. Improvements to prediction accuracy and resolution of complex flow areas in the St. Clair-Detroit River waterway enhance understanding of the physical processes in the system and allow for operational implementation within the GLFS.
  
• BELETSKY, D., SCHWAB, D.J., and MCCORMICK, M.J., Nested Grid Circulation Modeling in Southern Lake Michigan. A nested grid version of the Princeton Ocean Model for the Great Lakes was applied to the coastal area in southern Lake Michigan. The model uses 3D boundary conditions derived from the whole-lake hydrodynamic model to simulate circulation in a small coastal area at very high (100 m) horizontal resolution in 2005. Model results are tested with current observations and data from tracer release experiment in the vicinity of Burns Ditch, Indiana. This tributary to Lake Michigan is known to contain high levels of coliform bacteria and is adjacent to the Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore. In the tracer experiment, the inert gas sulfur hexafluoride was introduced into the tributary and the plume was tracked using a shipboard-based gas chromatography system for several days after the release, and also with a 3D particle transport model applied during the same period.
  
• BELETSKY, D. and SCHWAB, D.J., Modeling Thermal Structure in Lake Erie. A 1D version of the Princeton Ocean Model was applied to Lake Erie to model vertical thermal structure in 1972-2005. The model is driven with momentum and heat fluxes calculated from standard meteorological observations at Cleveland using overland-overlake correction for wind speed. The model was calibrated with 1994 data and evaluated with 2004-2005 temperature observations at mid-lake location. The model was also run in 3D mode for 2005 on a 2 km horizontal grid. 3D model results were compared with 1D model results to assess how lateral processes affect stratification and also how stratification varies spatially over the central basin, and how lateral processes limit (or impact) the use of 1-d model approximations.
• BRANDT, S.B., COSTANTINI, M., LUDSIN, S.A., MASON, D.M., and VANDERPLOEG, H.A.,  Spatially-explicit Growth Predictions to Assess Habitat Quality of Walleye during Hypoxia in Lake Erie. Biological and environmental data were used to quantify the effect of hypoxia on habitat quality of walleye in the Lake Erie central basin. Walleye growth rate potential (GRP) was modeled along kilometer-scale transects at 4-hr intervals across the diel cycle. Transects were sampled during August (before hypoxia), September (during hypoxia), and October (after hypoxia), 2005. We introduced a detrimental effect of reduced DO concentrations (3 mg L-1) on walleye consumption in a prey-temperature GRP model to estimate growth within the species optimal foraging light range. Results showed that walleye habitat quality (GRP>0) was only slightly reduced by bottom hypoxia per se. Maps showed also that GRP followed the distribution of preyfish, which, in turn, aggregated in oxygenated waters. Accordingly, hypoxia did not largely affect the walleye habitat quality per se. In contrast, by concentrating prey in oxygenated waters and forcing them up in the water column, hypoxia might have the potential to increase prey density at depths where light levels and temperatures are optimal to forage. Results should be useful in evaluating how increasing hypoxia in Lake Erie might affect overall walleye production.
  
• CAVALETTO, J.F. and VANDERPLOEG, H.A., Effect of Hypolimnetic Oxygen Concentration on Vertical Migration and Abundance of Zooplankton in the Central Basin of Lake Erie. During a hypoxic period in the central basin of Lake Erie zooplankton were collected from sites that varied in levels of dissolved oxygen (02) concentrations from <1 to 4 mg/L in the hypolimnion. To observe the effects of low 02 concentrations on vertical migration patterns of zooplankton, samples were collected with a pump from the epilimnion, metalimnion, and hypolimnion. Under normoxic conditions many zooplankton species migrate to deep regions of the water column during the day to avoid predation from visually feeding fishes and invertebrate predators like Bythotrephes longimanus. During moderately hypoxic conditions (2 mg/L 02) cyclopoids, Bosmina, and some Daphnia mendotae were found in the hypolimnetic zone with total zooplankton densities of 80,000 and 100,000 per m-3, day and night respectively. During severe hypoxic conditions (<0.7 mg/L 02), few were found in the hypolimnion, with total zooplankton densities of 482 and 630 per m-3, day and night respectively. Bythtotrephes, a preferred prey of fishes, was more abundant at sites with low 02 concentrations. This may be a result of the fishes moving out of such regions and more overlap of Bythotrephes with its prey that was denied its hypolimnetic refuge.
  
• CROLEY, T.E., DEMARCHI, C., HE, C., and HUNTER, T.S., Performances of the Distributed Large Basin Runoff Model for Different Watersheds in the Great Lake Basin. The Distributed Large Basin Runoff Model (DLBRM) is a physically based, spatially distributed, hydrology model that is widely used for hydrological forecasting and climate change assessment throughout the Great Lakes region. It is also a major component of the watershed characterization of the ECOFORE 2006 project. The DLBRM was automatically calibrated to reproduce the 1950-1964 and the 1999-2006 flows in 18 watersheds throughout the Great Lakes region. This presentation will analyze how calibration sets and model performances varied in space and time and examine what these tells us about the model robustness, changes in the watershed, and possible effects of climate change. 
• DEPINTO, J.V., VANDERPLOEG, H.A., and AUER, M.T., Cladophora and Open-water “Desertification”: Do Dreissenids Play a Role?  Empirical observations and modeling analysis of the ecological impacts of zebra mussels in Saginaw Bay subsequent to their invasion in 1990 have provided considerable knowledge about how dreissenids impact primary production, nutrient cycling, and lower food web dynamics in shallow environments. We have also developed through observation and modeling a good understanding of the environmental conditions that favor Cladophora growth in nearshore environments. This presentation will combine these two bodies of knowledge to suggest a hypothesis for how the role of dreissenid filtering related impacts on water clarity and phosphorus cycling in the nearshore zones of the lakes have fueled the resurgence of Cladophora in Lake Michigan, Lake Huron, and Lake Ontario while at the same time greatly reducing the primary production potential of offshore waters in these systems. Dreissenids provide for increased light penetration in shallow areas while at the same time re-mobilizing a sizable portion of the particulate phosphorus in these areas. Both the increased light and available phosphorus lead to lush Cladophora growth, which in turn traps a considerable amount of the phosphorus entering the nearshore area from the watershed, greatly reducing production in the offshore waters.
  
• DYBLE, J., FAHNENSTIEL, G.L., and MILLIE, D.F., Cyanobacterial HABs in the Great Lakes: Environmental Stressors, Genetic Diversity and Impacts on Human Health. There are many potential threats to human health that may result from the proliferation of harmful algal blooms in the Great Lakes. These include exposure through drinking water supplies (e.g., use of untreated water for drinking, chronic exposure through low levels of toxins in treated sources), recreation (e.g., inhalation of aerosolized toxins while boating, accidentally swallowing water while swimming), and food (e.g., bioaccumulation in fish). We will summarize what is currently known about the distribution, abundance and genetic diversity of Microcystis in the lower Great Lakes, as well as environmental factors influencing microcystin production and the potential for accumulation in edible fish tissue. We will discuss the implications of this data on human health in the Great Lakes region and identify areas requiring further investigation.
  
• EFFLER, S.W., PENG, F., O’DONNELL, D.M., PERKINS, M.G., STRAIT, C.M., and LESHKEVICH, G.,  Minerogenic Particles and Light Scattering in Lake Ontario and Pursuit of Optical Closure. Light scattering particles are important regulators of optical metrics of water quality, such as Secchi disc depth (ZSD), and the signal available for remote sensing. The role of inorganic, or minerogenic, particles in light scattering in Lake Ontario (seven pelagic sites, August 2007) was evaluated based on the results of individual particle analyses, by scanning electron microscopy interfaced with automated x-ray microanalysis and image analysis (SAX), and in situ bulk measurements of particle scattering (bp) and backscattering (bbp) coefficients. SAX quantified the light scattering features of these particles, including concentration, composition, size distribution, and supported Mie theory estimates of the minerogenic components of bp and bbp. These estimates, added to those obtained for the organic component based on chlorophyll a concentrations, closed well with the bulk measurements. Spatial differences in the minerogenic particle population, with respect to concentration and composition, were primarily responsible for the substantial spatial structure observed for bp, bbp, and ZSD, and MODIS (satellite-based) measurements of normalized water-leaving radiance.
  
• GUNGOR, E., ROBERTS, P., MCCORMICK, M.J., and SCHWAB, D.J.,  Dynamics of the Grand River Plume Entering Lake Michigan.  Contaminants and fecal pollution from the Grand River may pose health risks to recreationers at the Grand Haven beaches and may major cause beach closing. This study focuses on the near field hydrodynamics of the Grand River plume as it enters lake Michigan. We develop a near field model to determine the fate and probability of beach contamination and to aid forecasting water quality along the beaches. Four intensive field experiments on the plume dynamics were carried out in the summers of 2006 and 2007. Artificial tracers (SF6 and Rhodamine WT) were added to the river upstream and profiles of plume properties were obtained by boats in the lake. In addition, currents, winds and waves were continuously measured and aerial photographs of the plume were obtained. It was found that the river plume forms a buoyant surface jet. In this paper, the field data are discussed and experiments are proposed using three-dimensional laser-induced fluorescence (3DLIF) to investigate the characteristics of the river plume and its mixing and transport mechanisms. The results of this research will improve simulations of water quality in nearshore areas and aid in predicting beach closures.
  
• HÖÖK, T.O., BELETSKY, D., MASON, D.M., RUTHERFORD, E.S., and SCHWAB, D.J.,  A Linked Hydrodynamic and Individual-based Model to Simulate Alewife Recruitment in Lake Michigan. Recent studies suggest that alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) year-class strength in Lake Michigan is influenced by summer temperatures and salmonine predation. As lake currents have the potential to rapidly transport fish larvae to both favorable and unfavorable nursery habitats, we hypothesize that variable lake currents also play a role in determining alewife recruitment success. To consider how annual variation in lake currents and temperatures may jointly influence year-class strength, we linked a 3-D particle transport model with an individual-based model of early life alewife growth and survival. Transport processes influence the foraging success of larvae by determining individuals’ thermal and foraging environments, thereby affecting growth rate and the length of time individuals are susceptible to size-selective predators. Results suggest that the extent to which variable lake currents influence alewife year-class strength is dependent on the spatial distributions of alewife predators and prey. When foraging opportunities and predation pressure do not vary spatially, simulations suggest that while local recruitment success (i.e., survival of individuals emanating from a small region of the lake) can be highly variable, inter-annual variation in lake-wide year-class strength is low.
  
• HUNTER, T.S., HE, C., CROLEY, T.E., and DEMARCHI, C.,  Forecasting Grand River (Michigan) Discharge and Pollution Loads. As part of the Center of Excellence for Great Lakes and Human Health (CEGLHH) suite of models for forecasting water quality, beach closures, and the occurrence of harmful algal blooms, we are developing a short-term forecasting system of discharge and pollutant loads for major watersheds of Lake Michigan. Discharge is forecasted by feeding 1-2 day weather forecast from the National Weather Service to GLERL’s Distributed Large Basin Runoff Model (DLBRM). A dual approach is taken for forecasting pollutant loads: initially we will predict water quality parameters from discharge and meteorological forecasts by using locally calibrated regression models. In parallel, we are introducing transport models into the DLBRM for the most important pollutants. Together with a detailed mapping of point and nonpoint pollution sources in the watershed, these models will eventually allow better short-term forecasts of pollutant loads and the evaluation of land use changes and pollution prevention policies on water quality. An application of the forecasting system to the Grand River watershed in Michigan is shown.
  
• JOHENGEN, T.H., DEMARCHI, C., CROLEY, T.E., and HE, C., Sediment and Nutrient Load Simulation for the Saginaw Bay AIF. As part of a comprehensive study of the state of Saginaw Bay ecosystem and its possible evolution (MultiStress 07, Adaptive Integrated Framework), we are developing a sediment and nutrient load model of the Saginaw Bay watershed. The model will be based on GLERL’s Distributed Large Basin Runoff Model (DLBRM) and include simulation of point and nonpoint source nutrients generation and transport at daily and 1 km resolution. Land use has already been mapped (at 1 km2 resolution) in the four watersheds that drain into Saginaw Bay using soil parameters, topography, historical daily meteorology (1948—2005). Nutrient inputs from animal manure, fertilizers, and point sources have been mapped over the same area to estimate areal distributions of nutrients. Calibration and validation of the hydrologic component of the model was also completed for 1950-1964 and 1997-2006. Calibration and validation of the nutrients model will be accomplished by supplementing the regularly monitored data with an ad-hoc sampling effort which will span two years and measure sediments and nutrients under a variety of hydrological conditions.
  
• LEKKI, J.L., LESHKEVICH, G., NGUYEN, Q.V., FLATICO, F., PROKOP, N., ANDERSON, R., DEMERS, J., KOJIMA, J., KRASOWSKI, M., and OO, O., Update on Great Lakes Hyperspectral Water Quality Instrument Suite for Airborne Monitoring of Algal Blooms. NASA Glenn Research Center and NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab have continued their collaboration to utilize an airborne hyperspectral imaging sensor suite to monitor algal blooms in the western basin of Lake Erie and Saginaw Bay. The development of a bloom is a very dynamic event because the bloom can form, spread, and then disappear within a 4 to 8 week time period in late summer. They are a concern for human health, fish, and wildlife because they can contain blue green toxic algae. This situation is well suited for aircraft-based monitoring because the blooms are such a dynamic event and they can spread over a large area. A second generation custom designed hyperspectral imager and a point spectrometer mounted in a Lear 25 aircraft have been used to obtain data of multiple areas in the western basin of Lake Erie during September 2007. Water samples have been taken of these same areas concurrently by NOAA and the EPA. The correlation of the water samples with the hyperspectral measurements will help to determine the efficacy of hyperspectral monitoring of harmful algal blooms in the Great Lakes. The sensor suite and operations will be described and preliminary hyperspectral data of this event will be presented.
  
• LESHKEVICH, G. and LIU, S.,  CoastWatch Great Lakes Program Update: 2008. CoastWatch is a nationwide National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) program within which the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) functions as the CoastWatch Great Lakes regional node. In this capacity, GLERL obtains, produces, and delivers environmental data and products for near real-time monitoring of the Great Lakes to support environmental science, decision making, and supporting research. This is achieved by providing Internet access to near real-time and retrospective satellite observations, in-situ data, and derived products to Federal and state agencies, academic institutions, and the public via the CoastWatch Great Lakes web site (http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov). New utilities such as JAVA GIS and Google Earth® allow interactive retrieval of physical parameters such as surface temperature, ice cover, and surface winds at a given location and enhance the accessibility and utility of Great Lakes CoastWatch data. Plans include enhancing the present product suite with new near real-time image products such as an improved temperature composite chart, satellite derived wind fields, ice type mapping, turbidity, and chlorophyll images derived from satellite sensors such as Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), scatterometer, and ocean color sensors.
  
• LIEBIG, J.R., VANDERPLOEG, H.A., POTHOVEN, S.A., CAVALETTO, J.F., KRUEGER, D., MASON, D.M., LANG, G.A., PANGLE, K., PICHLOVÁ, R., and PEACOR, S.,  Interactions of the Invasive Predatory Cladocerans, Bythotrephes longimanus and Cercopagis pengoi, with Zooplankton and Fish along an Onshore-offshore Transect in Southern Lake Michigan. Diel patterns of vertical distribution of fish and of zooplankton along with estimated consumption determined from bioenergetics models were used to determine predatory interactions among Bythotrephes longimanus, Cercopagis pengoi, fishes, and zooplankton along an offshore-onshore transect in southern Lake Michigan. Vertical spatial overlap between alewives, their preferred prey Bythotrephes, and zooplankton were strongly driven by thermal structure, however the pattern of vertical distribution was not consistent or stable during the day or night. Bythotrephes and Cercopagis were usually found concentrated in the epilimnion and to a lesser degree in the metalimnion, while adult alewives were generally found lower in the water column. By migrating deeply during the day, Daphnia mostly avoided the visually feeding Bythotrephes, but generally had a higher spatial overlap with fish. The low abundance of alewives and their lower position in the water column relative to Bythotrephes allowed Bythotrephes to be abundant offshore, where they likely controlled Cercopagis abundance through predation. Estimates of consumption of zooplankton showed that Bythotrephes dominated the offshore while Cercopagis and fish dominated consumption inshore.
  
• LOFGREN, B.M., Atmospheric and Hydrologic Impacts of Increased Greenhouse Gases on the Great Lakes Simulated Using CHARM2. The new version of the Coupled Hydrosphere-Atmosphere Research Model (CHARM) incorporates several new features. There is spectral nudging in the interior of the model domain in addition to lateral boundary nudging. Surface heat flux adjustment is calibrated and applied on the Great Lakes in order to bring their surface temperatures into agreement with observations during the historical time period. Preliminary results will be presented of comparisons between runs at different times driven by output from the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Climate System Model version 3.0 (CCSM 3.0). Output variables will include air and water temperatures, wind, precipitation, evapotranspiration, ice cover, and runoff.
  
• LUDSIN, S.A., HÖÖK, T.O., RUCINSKI, D.K., DEPINTO, J.V., and SCAVIA, D.,  Historical Exploration of Hypoxia Effects on Fish Recruitment and Production in Lake Erie. Hypolimnetic hypoxia (< 4 mg O2/L) is a natural phenomenon in Lake Erie’s central basin during late summer; however, its magnitude, extent, and duration can vary inter-annually. While it is plausible that fish populations will respond to such annual variation in hypoxia, the effect of hypoxia on Lake Erie’s recreational and commercial fisheries remains poorly understood. Herein, we characterize historical relationships between hypoxia and growth, recruitment, and harvest levels of central Lake Erie’s dominant piscivore (walleye Sander vitreus), benthivore (yellow perch Perca flavescens), and planktivore (rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax), using both statistical and computer modeling approaches. Specifically, we use a regression approach to quantify the historical (1987-2007) relationship between 1) annual indices of growth (length at age), recruitment, and population biomass for these species and 2) indices of the magnitude, spatial extent, and duration of bottom hypoxia, generated from empirical field observations and output from a one-dimensional water quality model. Based on results from our analyses, we discuss how hypoxia may influence our ability to understand (and hence forecast) both past and future dynamics of these three recreationally and commercially important fish populations.
  
• MILLER, B., FACKLER, J., MANKIN, P., HORVATIN, P.J., ANDREN, A., and BRANDT, S.B., Great Lakes Regional Research Information Network - Lake Michigan.  NOAA requested regional development plans for U.S. coastal, ocean, and Great Lakes areas. The Great Lakes Regional Research Information Network (GLRRIN) is developing a comprehensive research and information plan that will help focus research, technology transfer, and outreach efforts on the highest priority issues within the Great Lakes region. The Network consists of five teams, each focusing on one of the Great Lakes. The Lake Michigan team compiled a comprehensive list of organizations with a strong interest in Lake Michigan. The results indicate that ecosystem, pollutants, education, aquatic invasive species, and water issues were the top five priorities for the majority of the organizations. The Lake Michigan team concluded that specific research projects needed to address problems in the topic areas  re dynamic and are expected to change frequently as new discoveries are made and new problems arise. Further coordination among the agencies and institutions sponsoring and conducting research is needed to prioritize specific research questions and distribute agency attention and resources to these questions as conditions change. The implementation phase of this project will engage scientists and funders in finding solutions to our Lake Michigan priority research issues.
  
• NALEPA, T.F., A Chronological Perspective on Ecological Impacts of Dreissenids in the Great Lakes: Some Expected and Unexpected Outcomes.  Just a few years after Dreissena (zebra and quagga mussel) first became established and rapidly increased in North America, it became obvious that these organisms would have a profound impact on the Great Lakes ecosystem. Some impacts were immediate and may have been predicted from the European literature, such as an increase in water clarity, a decrease in phytoplankton, and the loss of native mussels. Even so, achieved population densities led to changes that far exceeded expectations. Some impacts took longer to recognize and were mostly unpredicted. Examples include the complete disappearance of the amphipod Diporeia spp., an increase in blooms of Microcystis, and the extensive growth of nearshore mats of Cladophora. Dreissenids have been indirectly implicated in the return of Hexagenia to western Lake Erie, the expansion of the central Lake Erie hypoxic zone, and an increase in avian botulism, but research is needed or is underway to fully develop these relationships. One of the greatest unexpected surprises was the population expansion and high densities of quagga mussel “profunda” in deeper waters of many of the lakes. As a result, dreissenid impacts on the Great Lakes ecosystem are still evolving, and ultimate consequences have yet to be realized.
  
• NEKOUEE, N., ROBERTS, P., SCHWAB, D.J., and MCCORMICK, M.J.,  3D Numerical Prediction of the Grand River Plume. The nearshore behavior of the Grand River plume as it enters Lake Michigan is modeled in three dimensions. Simulation of the mixing and transport mechanisms in the near field and transition to far field is of particular concern. Far field models typically incorporate grid sizes that are larger than the scale of near field processes by orders of magnitude. Hence, predictive capability is usually sought by refining the far field model grid size or coupling the far field model with a near field model. In this study, the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) is used to simulate the dispersion of the Grand River plume near the local beaches with a grid size of 100 m in a 24 x 6 km domain. The open water boundary conditions are obtained from a whole-lake hydrodynamic simulation with a 2 km grid resolution. The model predictions are compared with extensive the field observations to determine the extent to which the model can simulate the near field processes and hence the need for either further refining the model grid or coupling it with a separate near field model. The results of this research will improve numerical modeling of nearshore water quality.
  
• NGHIEM, S.V. and LESHKEVICH, G., Using Satellite Scatterometer Data to Map and Monitor Variations in Great Lakes Ice Cover. Ice cover in the Great Lakes has a major impact on commerce and public safety, and is a sensitive index of regional winter climate. Recent studies, based on observed annual maximum ice cover (AMIC) from 1963 to 2002, found it was at a maximum of 97.4% in 1979 and a minimum of 14.8% in 2002. Winter 2002 set a new record low AMIC, while during winter 2003, three of the Great Lakes froze over for the first time in nearly a decade. The large spatial and high temporal coverage of satellite scatterometer measurements with its all-weather, day/night sensing capabilities make it well suited to map and monitor Great Lakes ice cover to extend the historical climatological record. The SeaWinds scatterometer (Ku-band) on the QuikSCAT satellite (QSCAT) has been collecting backscatter data over the world continuously since its launch in June 1999 and can cover most of the Great Lakes two times per day. Results of ice cover freeze-up and break-up dates observed by QSCAT over large lakes in North America and Europe show similarity between ice cover response and indicate that ice freezeup date, breakup date, and ice cover duration are appropriate integrated indicators of climatic conditions over the hemispheric scale.
  
• PENG, F., EFFLER, S.W., O’DONNELL, D.M., and LESHKEVICH, G., Individual Particle Analysis of Suspended Minerogenic Particles in Lake Erie: Implications to Water Clarity and Remote Sensing. Suspended inorganic, or minerogenic, particles from the western portion of Lake Erie, collected following a high wind event (September 2007), were characterized by an individual particle technique, scanning electron microscopy interfaced with automated X-ray microanalysis and image analysis (SAX). SAX provided characterizations of the elemental X-ray composition, number concentration, and particle size distribution. This information supported Mie theoretical calculations of the associated scattering (bm, m–1) and backscattering coefficients (bbm, m–1) and partitioning these two estimates into geochemical particle types to evaluate optical impacts and origins of the minerogenic particle population. Wide spatial differences in bm and bbm were observed, with clay minerals dominating at most sites. These spatial differences were the primary driver of the variations observed in several related bulk optical metrics, including turbidity, the beam attenuation coefficient, Secchi transparency depth, and particulate scattering and backscattering coefficients.
  
• PERKINS, M.G., EFFLER, S.W., STRAIT, C.M., QUARING, G.F., ZHANG, L., and LESHKEVICH, G., Patterns of Light Absorption in the West Basin of Lake Erie. Light absorbing constituents are important regulators of the signal available to assess water quality  from remote sensing. The magnitudes and spectral features of absorbing components, including colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM or gelbstoff; aCDOM), phytoplankton (aphyto), and non-algal particles (NAP; aNAP) were determined for near-surface waters at 15 sites in Lake Erie (mostly within the west basin), for samples collected in September 2007 following a major wind event. Absorption spectra were obtained on filtrate (0.2 μm pore size) for CDOM, and filters for phytoplankton and NAP (before and after bleaching). Exponential decreases with increasing wavelength (400-700 nm range) for aCDOM and aNAP, and bimodal patterns for aphyto, are reported. Dependencies of aphyto and aNAP on the common water quality metrics of chlorophyll a and suspended solids are evaluated. Wide spatial differences in the magnitudes of the three components and their relative contributions to overall a are documented. Comparisons are made with recent observations for Lake Superior and Lake Ontario.
  
• POSTE, A.E., HECKY, R.E., YAKOBOWSKI, S., DYBLE, J., and GUILDFORD, S.J., Microcystin in Water and Fish from East African Lakes. Despite evidence of shifts toward cyanobacterial dominance and increased frequency of cyanobacterial blooms in African lakes, few studies have quantified cyanotoxins in these lakes. Epilimnetic water and fish were collected in May 2007 from Lake Albert and Lake Saka. Microcystin in whole water was measured using a Protein Phosphatase Inhibition Assay, and fish muscle tissue was analyzed for microcystin using methanol extraction and ELISA. In Lake Albert, the mean whole water microcystin concentration was 0.06 μg/L, far below the WHO drinking water guideline of 1.0 μg/L. However, microcystin in Lake Albert fish was still detectable and ranged from 0.47 to 5.66 ng/g. The highest concentration seen approached the WHO guideline for microcystin in fish (TDI of 40 ng/g consumer, for a 50 kg individual consuming a daily fish meal of 300 g) and was observed in the smallest individual of Lates niloticus (Nile perch). In Lake Saka, where microcystin in water persistently exceeds 3 μg/L, the Oreochromis niloticus (Nile tilapia) collected all exceeded the recommended TDI for microcystin in fish, with concentrations ranging from 6.95–30.41 ng/g, indicating that microcystin concentrations in these fish may be detrimental to the health of consumers.
  
• POTHOVEN, S.A. and NALEPA, T.F.,  Fish Diets and Condition in Lake Huron. We collected seasonal data on planktivorous fish condition, diets, and available prey (zooplankton, Mysis, benthos) from a site in southern Lake Huron in 2007. Diets and condition were compared to earlier data collected from Lake Michigan. The two most abundant pelagic planktivores in Lake Huron were rainbow smelt and bloater. Both rainbow smelt and bloater diets (by number) were mainly copepods (70% and 90% respectively), with smaller contributions from cladocerans (23 and 9% respectively) and Mysis (5 and 1% respectively). Diet composition in Lake Huron in 2007 differed from that for fish from Lake Michigan (2000-2001), where smelt mainly ate cladocerans (56%), copepods (20%), and Mysis (12%) and bloater ate cladocerans (62%), Mysis (16%), Diporeia (8%), and copepods (3%). Diets will be further analyzed with respect season and to available prey resources for both lakes. Energy density in the spring for rainbow smelt was apparently lower in Lake Huron in 2007 (4,295 J/g) than in Lake Michigan (1998-1999) (5,894-6,528 J/g). On the other hand, energy density of bloater in the spring was similar between Lake Huron (6,690 J/g) and Michigan (5,829-7,002 J/g).
  
• REICHERT, J.M., FRYER, B.J., LUDSIN, S.A., JOHNSON, T.B., TYSON, J.T., JOHENGEN, T.H., and HAWLEY, N., River Plume Effects on Yellow Perch Growth, Survival, and Recruitment in Lake Erie. Several tributaries drain into western L. Erie that differ in their physical (e.g., temperature, sediment inputs) and chemical (e.g., phosphorus inputs) properties. In turn, these river inflows lead to the formation of water masses (river plumes) that have distinct habitat characteristics, which could differentially influence the growth and survival of fish. Specifically, one might expect that nutrient-rich river plumes with higher temperatures (e.g., Maumee River plume) to promote faster larval fish growth, thus leading to increased survival and recruitment success, compared to river plumes without such attributes (e.g., Detroit River plume). To test this hypothesis, we are using otoliths from yellow perch larvae and juveniles collected during 2006 and 2007 to 1) compare daily growth rates between the Maumee and Detroit River plumes (n=25 larvae/date/plume/year), and 2) develop plume-specific microelemental signatures (n=50 larvae/plume/year) to reconstruct past larval habitat use of age-0 juvenile yellow perch from August (n=100 fish/year), which is when recruitment is set for this species in L. Erie. Herein, we present our research findings and discuss their implications for understanding how river plumes can influence recruitment variation of yellow perch, which is of recreational and commercial importance in L. Erie.
  
• REID, D.F. and WILKINSON, D., The Zebra Mussel: Catalyst for National Policy on Aquatic Invasive Species. The earliest and most extensive legislation on invasive species in the U.S. was for protection of crops and livestock. On the aquatic side, Federal policy until the late 20th Century was rare and primarily reactive, treating each introduced species as a separate problem. The discovery of the zebra mussel in 1988 catalyzed multiple laws and policy changes at many levels of government across the U.S. and Canada, recognizing aquatic invasive species as a national problem. In the U.S. the centerpiece has been the Nonindigenous Aquatic Nuisance Species Prevention and Control Act (NANPCA), originally passed in 1990. It included mandates on prevention (ballast water), and requirements aimed at zebra mussel control, as well as other actions, such as system surveys and establishment of the Aquatic Nuisance Species Task Force to encourage a coordinated Federal approach. It led to establishment of regional panels, and to EO 13112, which resulted in the first comprehensive national plan for managing invasive species issues within the United States. In Canada, the issue was recognized in the Canadian Biodiversity Strategy (1995), which led to the 2001 Canadian Action Plan to Address the Threat of Aquatic Invasive Species, resulting in recent changes in Canadian ballast water law and the establishment of an extensive scientific program.
  
• REID, D.F., Oregon Public Broadcasting Video: The Silent Invasion: Quagga Mussels (Lake Mead).  In January 2007, quagga mussels were discovered in Lake Mead, Nevada/Arizona, marking the first documented establishment of dreissenids west of the 100th meridian. Oregon Public Broadcasting is preparing an hour-long documentary on invasive species in Oregon. A short segment from that documentary will be played that focuses on the Lake Mead invasion and the fear, already being realized, that the mussels will spread throughout the western states. This video serves as a brief introduction to the next presentation, by Drs. A.N. Cohen and R.A. Moll, about the spread of dreissenids west of the 100th meridian and the local/regional response.
  
• SHUCHMAN, R.A., LESHKEVICH, G., HATT, C., POZDNYAKOV, D., KOROSOV, A., and JOHENGEN, T.H., Development of a Robust Hydro-optical Model for the Great Lakes for the Extraction of Chlorophyll, Dissolved Organic Carbon, and Suspended Minerals from MODIS Satellite Data. An algorithm has been developed by Michigan Tech Research Institute (MTRI), Nansen International Environmental and Remote Sensing Center (NIERSC), and NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) that is capable of retrieving concentrations of chlorophyll (CHL), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and suspended minerals (SM) from satellite images of coastal and inland waters. The algorithm employs a water-body specific hydro-optical model, which is a set of backscattering and absorption coefficients for CHL, DOC, and SM, to estimate concentrations of these substances. To generate the water body specific hydro-optical model for the Great Lakes, a set of dedicated field sampling campaigns was conducted in 2005-2007. Using a Satlantic profiling radiometer, we collected in-situ irradiance and radiance values at bands corresponding to the MODIS and SeaWiFS satellite sensors, as well as sea truth data for CHL, DOC, and SM. In 2005 we obtained extensive observation in Lake Erie while in 2006 and 2007 optical properties in Lakes Huron and Superior were obtained. Results of the model show a strong correlation between in-situ and retrieved CHL and SM. 
• STOW, C.A., SELLINGER, C.E., LAMON, E.C., and QIAN, S.S., Analysis of Water Level Changes in Lakes Michigan and Huron. Recent water level declines in Lakes Michigan and Huron have been particularly worrisome, in part because they are consistent with many global climate change scenarios. We examined water level changes over time with Dynamic Linear Models (DLMs) and Seasonal Trend Decomposition using Loess (STL). STL results highlight periodicities at several frequencies, including a relationship with sunspot activity. Interestingly, the sign of this relationship changed from positive to negative in about 1940. DLMs show a relationship with precipitation at three annual time lags, with a pseudo-r-squared of 0.89, and reveal an underlying water level decline that began in the 1970s. The DLM results provide a basis to forecast annual average water levels, given previous year precipitation, with accompanying uncertainty estimates. They may also be a useful tool to help delineate the causes of the long-term underlying water level decline.
  
• STURTEVANT, R.A. and REID, D.F., GLANSIS: The Great Lakes Nonindigenous Aquatic Species Information System. The Great Lakes have a long history of introductions - intentional and unintentional - of aquatic nonindigenous species. As of 2007, at least 186 nonindigenous species have been recorded as having reproducing populations in the Great Lakes basin, i.e., Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, St. Clair, Erie, Ontario, and their connecting channels and water bodies within their respective drainages (Mills et al. 1993, Ricciardi 2001, Ricciardi 2006, Ricciardi unpubl. data). The Great Lakes Aquatic Nuisance Species Information System (GLANSIS) functions as a Great Lakes-specific node of the USGS NAS national database of freshwater aquatic invasive species. Information entered for GLANSIS automatically appears in both databases. GLANSIS allows more direct access to the Great Lakes specific information – especially collection records. Individual fact sheets have been developed for 134 of the 186 established nonindigenous species, thereby accounting for over 70% of the known invaders in the basin. The species for which factsheets are not yet developed are all vascular plants and algae, primarily semi-aquatic species. These are listed but with only minimal information at this time. GLANSIS is available at: http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/Programs/ncrais/glansis.html.
  
• STURTEVANT, R.A. and REID, D.F., Recent History of Great Lakes Saltwater Vessel Traffic, Delivery of Ballast Water, and the Effect of Ballast Water Exchange on Aquatic Species Invasions. We review vessel traffic patterns and ballast characteristics of saltwater vessels entering the Great Lakes during equal periods of time before (1978-1988, “pre-BWE”) and after (1994-2004, “post-BWE”) Ballast Water Exchange regulation. The number of ships entering as BOBs declined significantly, while the number of NOBOBs was not significantly different. The size of ships entering the Great Lakes, as reflected in gross tonnage, increased slightly during the post-BWE period; the average of annual cargo weight per transit was about 21% larger for the post-BWE period. We speculate that the total ballast amount carried into the Great Lakes potentially declined by ~76% between the pre- and post-BWE periods. The relative amount of ballast carried on NOBOB vessels was a relatively small fraction of the cumulative total ballast potentially carried into the Great Lakes during either period. We use estimated changes in ballast quantities as a simple surrogate to examine potential changes in propagule supply. The results indicate a dramatic reduction in potential propagule supply between, represented by an estimated average decrease of ~97%, equivalent to elimination of ~3.3 million t per year of unexchanged ballast water.
  
• VANDERPLOEG, H.A., NALEPA, T.F., FAHNENSTIEL, G.L., POTHOVEN, S.A., LIEBIG, J.R., DYBLE, J., and ROBINSON, S., Dreissenids as Nearshore and Offshore Engineers: Predicting Direct and Indirect Effects of Mussels on Pelagic Food Webs.With invasion of dreissenids to all depth zones of the Great Lakes, we now have to consider effects of mussels across all depth regions of the lakes. We review our progress in understanding effects of dreissenids on pelagic food webs. Effects of mussel selective feeding and nutrient processing on phytoplankton composition vary across trophic gradients. The desertification of the offshore pelagic region is likely not only driven by the hypothesized nearshore P shunt, but also activities of the mussels themselves in the offshore region. Increased light and other habitat modification have led to unanticipated changes in spatial coupling and food web processes. For example, mussel filtering reducing phytoplankton along with increased water clarity have led to direct and indirect negative consequences to zooplankton through loss of food and possibly increased susceptibility to visual predation from Bythotrephes and Cercopagis. Many of the changes now seen in the Great Lake have not been anticipated from analogies of mussel impacts in other freshwater and marine systems. This stems from lack of consideration of scale, system openness, trophic status, seasonal stratification, and peculiarities of the local food webs. We have a lot to learn before we can adaptively manage the Great Lakes.
  
• VANDERPLOEG, H.A., NALEPA, T.F., and REID, D.F., Dreissenids in North America: 20 Years of Consequences - Synthesis and Open Discussion. The Session Co-Chairs will lead an open discussion during the final speaker time slot in Session 29 to summarize the lessons learned from invited and contributed presentations during this session. Further, we hope to stimulate a discussion about future research directions and adaptive management strategies that may be necessary to deal with the realities of dreissenids and other aquatic invaders in North America over the next 20 years.
  
• WANG, H., HÖÖK, T.O., COOK, H.A., EINHOUSE, D.W., FIELDER, D.G., KAYLE, K., and RUDSTAM, L.G., Inter-stock Variation of Maturation Schedules of Walleye in the Great Lakes Region. Although intra-specific variation in fish maturation schedules are induced by both plastic and adaptive processes, commonly used maturation indices (e.g., age and length at 50% maturity) do not facilitate discrimination between plastic and adaptive variation. More recently, several researchers have employed probabilistic maturation reaction norms (PMRN) to help discriminate between plastic and adaptive variation. To quantify inter-stock plastic and adaptive variation in maturation schedules and to evaluate sensitivity of maturation indices to sampling-induced biases, we quantified spatial and temporal variation of maturation schedules of walleye from Lake Erie, Saginaw Bay, and Oneida Lake using 1) age and length at 50% maturity, 2) midpoints of age-specific maturation ogives, and 3) midpoints of PMRN. Our findings suggest that while sampling month, gear, and agency effects can bias estimates of age and length at 50% maturity, PMRN estimates are robust to gear and month effects (but sensitive to biases relating to agency effects). Furthermore, based on PMRN estimates we identified potential adaptive variation in maturation schedules among walleye stocks. Our study highlights the necessity to monitor maturation schedules using multiple maturation indices and the need to account for biases when comparing maturation schedules.
  
• WANG, J. and HU, H., Developing a Great Lakes Ice Model (GLIM) Using CIOM (Coupled Ice-Ocean Model) in Lake Erie. Lake ice cover is an important predictor of regional climate. Lake ice extent can modify the circulation patterns and thermal structure because: 1) wind stress drag is different in magnitude over water surface than over ice surface; 2) the albedo over ice vs. water differs, and 3) heat and moisture exchange between the atmosphere and the lake water can differ significantly (as much as an order of magnitude difference) in magnitude with and without lake ice, thus leading to striking difference in evaporation in wintertime due to wind mixing. Thus, prediction of the lake ice extent (i.e., cover) is crucial for predicting mixed layer, circulation, temperature, and lake water level, and thus for predicting primary and secondary productivity. In addition, the timing of ice melting, determined by climate variability, will determine the timing of phytoplankton and zooplankton blooms. As a first step, Lake Erie ice conditions are simulated with atmospheric forcing on synoptic and seasonal time scales (winter of 2004-2005) using the GLIM modified from Coupled Ice-Ocean Model (CIOM). The GLIM reproduces seasonal cycles of ice concentration, thickness, and velocity fields, which are validated by available satellite measurements.
  
• WYNNE, T.T., SCHWAB, D.J., STUMPF, R.P., TOMLINSON, M.C., DYBLE, J., and FAHNENSTIEL, G.L., Cyanobacterial Monitoring System for Lake Erie. Cyanobacterial blooms have become a relatively common occurence in Lake Erie. Early detection of these blooms would be advantageous to reduce some negative impacts associated with these blooms. We will demonstrate a proposed operational forecast system utilizing remotely sensed data and simple modeling techniques to locate and forecast blooms. We have developed remotely sensed data products that have proven to be successful for detection of larger (>20 km2 ) cyanobacterial blooms. Trajectories are created using the General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment (GNOME). The inputs are the analyzed bloom field and currents from the Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting System. GNOME then proceeds to predict where the bloom is likely to propagate. Results from recent experiments will be shown. The impact of uncertainty in both the bloom field and the currents is also assessed as part of the analysis.
  

May 15, 2008

Contents
1) New Building
2) Testimony at Field Hearing
3) Muskegon Maritime Heritage Walkway  $14,000
4) New Reprints
5) CEGLHH - New Reprint
6) Web Hot Items
7) In the News
________________________________________________________________

1) New Building
Move in date delayed to December 25.

2) Testimony at Field Hearing
Craig Stow testified Monday May 12th before a congressional field hearing in Port Huron, MI  about the Saginaw Bay Multiple Stressors project.
Release is at:  http://transportation.house.gov/News/PRArticle.aspx?NewsID=645
Summary document (with GLERL reference) is at: http://transportation.house.gov/Media/File/water/20080512/SSM%20Field%20Hearing%20Port%20Huron.pdf

3) Muskegon Maritime Heritage Walkway  $14,000
This project will create a maritime heritage walkway that highlights the history of NOAA’s Lake Michigan Field Station –built in 1905 by the Life Saving Service and transferred to NOAA’s stewardship in 1990 --  and links to city parks and Federal properties (including Army Corps of Engineers and Coast Guard).  It will be enhanced with interpretive signage detailing the history of the field station, resident agencies, local maritime industries and cultural heritage.  The project will engage the public in NOAA’s critical work that is being conducted on the Great Lakes and in West Michigan.  The Thunder Bay NMS will lend support by providing historical research, access to archival databases and photographs, and assistance with graphic design.
Project Lead: Dennis Donahue, NOAA Research, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Lake Michigan Field Station, Muskegon, Michigan.

4) New Reprints
Kerfoot, W.C., J.W. Budd, S.A. Green, J.B. Cotner, B.A. Biddanda, D.J. SCHWAB, and H.A. VANDERPLOEG. Doughnut in the desert: Late-winter production pulse in southern Lake Michigan. Limnology and Oceanography 53(2):589-604 (2008). http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/fulltext/2008/20080008.pdf

Lofgren, BM and P Bieniek.  Large-scale 700 hPa Height Patterns Associated with Cyclone Passage and Strong Winds on Lake Erie.  JGLR 32(1)36-53 (2008).

Madenjian, C.P., D.V. O’Connor, R.R. Rediske, J.P. O’Keefe, and S.A. POTHOVEN. Net trophic transfer efficiencies of PCB congeners to lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) from their food. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry 27(3):631-636 (2008).

RUBERG, S.A., R.W. MUZZI, S.B. BRANDT, J.C.LANE, T.C. MILLER, J.J. Gray, S.A. CONSTANT, and E.J. Downine. A wireless internet-based observatory: The Real-time Coastal Observation Network (ReCON). Proceedings, Marine Technology Society/IEEE Oceans 2007 Conference, Vancouver, B.C., Canada, September 30-October 5, 2007, 6 pp. (2007).

Santaga, S., Z.R. Gasiunaite, E. Verling, J.R. Corell, K. Eason, J.S. Cohen, K. Bacela, G. Quilez-Badia, T.H. JOHENGEN, D.F. REID, and G.M. Ruiz. Effect of osmotic shock as a management strategy to reduce transfers of non-indigenous species among low-salinity ports by ship. Aquatic Invasions 3(1):61-76 (2008). http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/fulltext/2008/20080006.pdf

5) CEGLHH - New Reprint
Shen, C, MS Phanikumar, TT Fong, I Aslam, SP McElmurry, SL Malloy and JB Rose.  2008.  Evaluating Bacteriophage P22 as a tracer in a complex surface water system: The Grand River, Michigan.  Environmental Sci. Technol.  42:2426-2431.

6) Web Hot Items
501 downloads - Lake Michigan Foodweb
http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/brochures/foodweb/LMfoodweb.pdf

390 downloads - Great Lakes Water Levels
http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/brochures/lakelevels/lakelevels.pdf

234 downloads - LOFGREN, B.M. Global warming effects on Great Lakes water: More precipitation but less water? Proceedings, 18th Conference on Hydrology, 8th Annual Meeting of the AMS, Seattle, WA, January 11-15, 2004, 3 pp. (2004). http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/fulltext/2004/20040002.pdf

155 downloads - SELLINGER, C.E., and F.H. QUINN. Proceedings of the Great Lakes paleo-levels workshop: The last 4000 years. NOAA Technical Memorandum GLERL-113. NOAA, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI, 127 pp. (2007). ftp://ftp.glerl.noaa.gov/publications/tech_reports/glerl-113/tm-113.pdf

118 downloads - REID, D.F. Conversion of specific gravity to salinity for ballast water regulatory management. NOAA Technical Memorandum GLERL-139. NOAA, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI, 24 pp. (2006). ftp://ftp.glerl.noaa.gov/publications/tech_reports/glerl-139/tm-139.pdf

109 downloads - Ruiz, G.M., and D.F. REID (Eds.). Current state of understanding about the effectiveness of ballast water exchange (BWE) in reducing aquatic nonindigenous species (ANS) introductions to the Great Lakes basin and Chesapeake Bay, USA: Synthesis and analysis of existing information. NOAA Technical Memorandum GLERL-142. NOAA, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI, 127 pp. (2007). ftp://ftp.glerl.noaa.gov/publications/tech_reports/glerl-142/tm-142.pdf

93 downloads - NOAA Green Ship Initiative
http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/brochures/GreenShip.pdf

83 downloads - Great Lakes New Invader: Bloody Red Shrimp (Hemimysis anomala)
http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/brochures/hemimysis.pdf

7) In the News
Invasive Species
Dave Reid quoted in
http://www.wwnytv.net/index.php/2008/05/06/feedback-cracking-down-on-invasive-species-in-great-lakes-seaway/

Rochelle Sturtevant quoted in the May 2008 edition of Scientific American - "Following the Money"

The zebra mussel invasion of the Great Lakes is one of the recent feature articles on NOAA's Earth Observations web site:
http://www.noaa.gov/features/earthobs_0508/zebra.html

April 15, 2008

Contents
1) Green Ships Video
2) CEGLHH - HAB Training Workshops
3) CEGLHH - Unwanted Medicine Disposal
4) GLERL in the News
5) New Reprints
6) Web Hot Items
7) GLANSIS - New Poster and Spreadsheet Available
8) GLERL Director's Awards
_______________________________________________________________
1) Green Ships Video
If you go to the NOAA website http://www.noaa.gov/ and click on the NOAA :Living Green, it will take you to the new Video on the GLERL green Ship operations.   This video will also be showing this during the Department of Commerce's Earth Day event on April 22

2) CEGLHH - HAB Training Workshops
On March 4, 5, & 6 the GLERL-based NOAA Center of Excellence for Great Lakes and Human Health (CEGLHH) co-hosted one day training workshops on Harmful Algal Blooms with Minnesota Sea Grant and the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency in the cities of Sauk Centre, Mankato, and St. Paul. The first of its kind in the Great Lakes, these workshops served to train natural resource and health managers, lake associations, and local government officials on algal ecology, blue-green algae identification, monitoring and analytical techniques, health and animal health risks, and communicating and engaging the media and public. Workshop participants received resource guides and algae identification materials. Workshop evaluations were extremely positive and articulated the necessity of such a training. Television news media was present at two of the three workshops and five newspapers featured articles on the trainings.

3) CEGLHH - Unwanted Medicine Disposal
On April 2, the Center of Excellence for Great Lakes and Human Health (CEGLHH) joined forces with the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality, IL-IN Sea Grant, and Michigan Sea Grant to host the “Unwanted Medicine Disposal: Doing it the Right Way” workshop. The first of its kind in Michigan, this workshop was organized to educate and provide guidance to pharmacies, hospices/long term care facilities, solid waste and environmental managers, public health officials, and public safety on environmentally sound and safe methods of disposing of and collecting pharmaceuticals. Over 105 stakeholders registered for the workshop and pharmacists were able to receive continuing education credit. IL-IN Sea Grant provided Resource Toolkit CDs to participants. Unwanted medicine disposal is a community wide issue and workshop participants agreed that engaging state, local, public health, pharmacies, natural resource, and law enforcement officials will ensure success of collection/disposal programs. The workshop was tape-recorded and will be available for public viewing along with PowerPoint presentations on the CEGLHH website: www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/Centers/HumanHealth.

4) GLERL in the News
Excerpt from:  Huron Daily Tribune, 4/7/2008, by Kate Hessling.  Phosphorus and its impact on the Bay.  http://www.michigansthumb.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=19460298&BRD=2292&PAG=461&dept_id=571474&rfi=6

"A research biologist from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab Friday discussed various sources of phosphorus and the impact it has on water quality in Saginaw Bay.   Juli Dyble, of the NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory in Ann Arbor, presented research showing while Lake Huron has fairly low phosphorus levels, that is not the case in the Saginaw Bay. The bay has significantly higher concentrations of phosphorus.  Dyble said there are a variety of sources of contaminants in Saginaw Bay. Sources of nutrients into the Saginaw Bay include industrial and municipal discharges, combined sewer overflows (CSOs), failing septic systems, urban and agricultural non-point source runoff and atmospheric deposition, Dyble said.  Other sources of contaminants include contaminated sediments (such as rocks that release contaminants they previously absorbed), and old waste disposal sites, she said.  Dyble said there also are urban centers in the watershed — including Flint, Saginaw, Bay City and Midland — that are sources for nutrients added into the bay during combined sewer overflows."

Excerpt from: Muskegon Chronicle, 4/9/2008, by Jeff Alexander.  The king of all invaders.
http://www.mlive.com/environment/index.ssf/2008/04/zebra_mussels_called_the_most.html

"In terms of the whole food web, I don't think there's any question that zebra and quagga mussels have had the largest impact on the biological communities of the Great Lakes," said Tom Nalepa, a research biologist at the federal government's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory in Ann Arbor.  Sea lamprey only affected fish at the top of the food chain. Zebra and quagga mussels have caused profound changes at all levels of the food chain in every Great Lake except Superior, Nalepa said.

"Quagga mussels are probably the most ecologically significant perturbation that has ever been documented in Lake Michigan," said Gary Fahnenstiel, senior ecologist at the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory's Lake Michigan Field Station in Muskegon.  Because zebra and quagga mussels occupy the middle of the Great Lakes food chain, they affect species above and below them, Fahnenstiel said. "They've totally altered the system," he said.

• Scientific Productivity - Jia Wang
• Best Scientific Paper -  VANDERPLEOG, H.A., T.H. JOHENGEN, P.J. Lavrentyev, C. Chen, G.A. LANG, M.A. Agy, M.H. Bundy, J.F. CAVALETTO, B.J. EADIE, J.R. LIEBIG, G.S. MILLER, S.A. RUBERG, and M.J. McCORMICK. Anatomy of the recurrent coastal sediment plume in Lake Michigan and its impacts on light climate, nutrients, and plankton. Journal of Geophysical Research 112(C03S90, doi:10.1029/2004JC002379):23 pp. (2007). http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/fulltext/2007/20070010.pdf
• Employees of the Year - Johengen and Reid for the NOBOB project.
• Excellence and Individual Achievement - Sonia Joseph for work on CEGLHH.
• Exceptional Service to GLERL - Tim Hunter
• Leadership and Initiative - New Building Committee
• Outstanding Effort - IT Team
• Outstanding Outreach - Dennis Donahue, Mike Quigley and Laura Newlin
• Cost Savings - Schwab, Miller and Lashbrook for an instrument recovery operation
• Volunteerism - GLERL Recycling Volunteers
  

March 18, 2008

Contents
1) Construction Webcam
2) Summer Ship Schedule
3) New Reprint
4) Web Hot Items
_______________________________________


1) Construction Webcam
GLERL move date is October 23, 2008.  Webcam images of the construction site will
be appearing online at http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/about/newbldg/

2) Summer Ship Schedule
GLERL will be operating 6 ships of various sizes on the Lakes this summer. 

The Laurentian will operate on Lake Michigan most of the season except  when it is on Lake Erie (May 29-June 13), and on Lake Huron (May 21-26, August 11-Sept 12, and October 4-8).

The Shenehon will operate on Lake Michigan.

The Huron Explorer is dedicated to Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary (Lake Huron) all season.

The Cyclops will operate on Lake Erie all season.

The new 32' vessel will operate primarily on Lake Huron (Saginaw Bay); except when it is on Lake Erie May 28-27.

The new 25' vessel will be operating out of Monroe (Lake Erie) July-September.

3) New Reprint
Robinson, S.D., P.F. Landrum, P.L. VanHoof, and B.J. Eadie. Seasonal variation of Polychlorinated biphenyl congeners in surficial sediment, trapped settling material, and suspended particulate matter in Lake Michigan. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry 27(2):313-322 (2008).

4) Web Hot Items
344 downloads - Lake Michigan Foodweb
http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/brochures/foodweb/LMfoodweb.pdf

314 downloads - Great Lakes Water Levels
http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/brochures/lakelevels/lakelevels.pdf

239 downloads - ASSEL, R.A. Conditional probability of December and January ice cover at selected Great Lakes shore sites. NOAA Technical Memorandum GLERL-134. NOAA, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI, 31 pp. (2005). ftp://ftp.glerl.noaa.gov/publications/tech_reports/glerl-134/tm-134.pdf

178 downloads - SELLINGER, C.E., and F.H. QUINN. Proceedings of the Great Lakes paleo-levels workshop: The last 4000 years. NOAA Technical Memorandum GLERL-113. NOAA, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI, 127 pp. (2007). ftp://ftp.glerl.noaa.gov/publications/tech_reports/glerl-113/tm-113.pdf

156 downloads - LOFGREN, B.M. Global warming effects on Great Lakes water: More precipitation bus less water? Proceedings, 18th Conference on Hydrology, 8th Annual Meeting of the AMS, Seattle, WA, January 11-15, 2004, 3 pp. (2004). http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/fulltext/2004/20040002.pdf

121 downloads - Ruiz, G.M., and D.F. REID (Eds.). Current state of understanding about the effectiveness of ballast water exchange (BWE) in reducing aquatic nonindigenous species (ANS) introductions to the Great Lakes basin and Chesapeake Bay, USA:  Synthesis and analysis of existing information. NOAA Technical Memorandum GLERL-142. NOAA, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI, 127 pp. (2007). ftp://ftp.glerl.noaa.gov/publications/tech_reports/glerl-142/tm-142.pdf

100 downloads - NOAA Green Ship Initiative
http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/brochures/GreenShip.pdf

84 downloads - Great Lakes New Invader: Bloody Red Shrimp (Hemimysis anomala)
http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/brochures/hemimysis.pdf

February 15, 2008

Contents
1.  New Building Update
2.  New Reprints
3.  Web Hot Items
4.  GLERL in the News
________________________________________________

1.  New Building Update
Move in date for the new building has been delayed to October 2008.

2.  New Reprints

ASSEL, R.A. Indicator: Lake Erie ice cover. In State of the Strait, Status and Trends of Key Indicators. Hartig, J.H., M.A. Zarull, J.H. Ciborowski, J.E. Gannon, E. Wilke, G. Norwood, and A. Vincent (Eds.). Great Lakes Institute for Environmental Research, Occasional Publication No. 5, Univ. of Windsor, Ontario, Canada, pp. 102-104 (2007). http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/fulltext/2007/20070043.pdf

BELETSKY, D., D.M. MASON, D.J. SCHWAB, E.S. Rutherford, J. Janssen, D.F. Clapp, and J.M. Dettmers. Biophysical model of larval yellow perch advection and settlement in Lake Michigan. Journal of Great Lakes Research 33:842-866 (2007). http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/fulltext/2007/20070041.pdf

HAWLEY, N., and B.J. EADIE. Observations of sediment transport in Lake Erie during the winter of 2004-2005. Journal of Great Lakes Research 33:816-827 (2007). http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/fulltext/2007/20070040.pdf

LESHKEVICH, G.A., and S.V. Nghiem. Satellite SAR remote sensing of Great Lakes ice cover, Part 2. Ice classification and mapping. Journal of Great Lakes Research 33:736-750 (2007). http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/fulltext/2007/20070042.pdf

Nghiem, S.V., and G.A. LESHKEVICH. Satellite SAR remote sensing of Great Lakes ice cover, Part 1. Ice backscatter signatures at C band. Journal of Great Lakes Research 33:722-735 (2007). http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/fulltext/2007/20070043.pdf

SELLINGER, C.E., C.A. STOW, E.C. Lamon, and S.S. Qian. Recent water level declines in the Lake Michigan-Huron system. Environmental Science and Technology 42:367-373 (2008).

3.  Web Hot Items

331 downloads - Great Lakes Water Levels
http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/brochures/wlevels/wlevels.pdf

251 downloads - LOFGREN, B.M. Global warming effects on Great Lakes water: More precipitation bus less water? Proceedings, 18th Conference on Hydrology, 8th Annual Meeting of the AMS, Seattle, WA, January 11-15, 2004, 3 pp. (2004). http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/fulltext/2004/20040002.pdf

201 downloads - Lake Michigan Foodweb
http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/brochures/foodweb/LMfoodweb.pdf

198 downloads - Ruiz, G.M., and D.F. REID (Eds.). Current state of understanding about the effectiveness of ballast water exchange (BWE) in reducing aquatic nonindigenous species (ANS) introductions to the Great Lakes basin and Chesapeake Bay, USA:  Synthesis and analysis of existing information. NOAA Technical Memorandum GLERL-142. NOAA, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI, 127 pp. (2007). ftp://ftp.glerl.noaa.gov/publications/tech_reports/glerl-142/tm-142.pdf

134 downloads - SELLINGER, C.E., and F.H. QUINN. Proceedings of the Great Lakes paleo-levels workshop: The last 4000 years. NOAA Technical Memorandum GLERL-113. NOAA, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI, 127 pp. (2007). ftp://ftp.glerl.noaa.gov/publications/tech_reports/glerl-113/tm-113.pdf

118 downloads - ASSEL, R.A., C.E. SELLINGER, D.E. MEYER, R.N. KELLY, AND P. Grimm.Great Lakes States Monthly Average Temperature Data - Beginning of Record to 1990. NOAA Technical Memorandum GLERL-088. NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI, 48 pp. (1995). ftp://ftp.glerl.noaa.gov/publications/tech_reports/glerl-088/tm-088.pdf

100 downloads - NOAA Green Ship Initiative
http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/brochures/GreenShip.pdf

76 downloads - Great Lakes New Invader: Bloody Red Shrimp (/Hemimysis anomala/)
http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/brochures/hemimysis.pdf

4.  GLERL in the News
January 12th Milwaukee Journal Sentinel story - "Prey Fish Dwindling in Lake Michigan" includes quotes by GLERL scientist Tom Nalepa regarding the spread of quagga mussels. http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=706464

January 17th Michigan Outdoor News.com article on the bloody red shrimp, hemimysis includes quotes by GLERL scientist Steve Pothoven.  http://www.michiganoutdoornews.com/articles/2008/01/17/top_news/news02.prt

January 20th, Ventura County (CA) Star story on the spread of quagga mussels in California's Lake Casitas reservoir includes quotes by GLERL scientist Tom Nalepa. http://www.venturacountystar.com/news/2008/jan/20/quagga-mussel-threat-puts-focus-on-lake-casitas/

January 26, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel story mentions GLERL/UM study on the effectiveness of salinity as a ballast water treatment.  http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=711375

January 27 Washington Post story on Great Lakes water levels includes a quote by GLERL Deputy Director / Hydrologist Cynthia Sellinger.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/26/AR2008012601748.html?hpid=topnews

February 1, MLive.com article on Saginaw Bay forum that EPA/GLNPO held yesterday at Saginaw Valley State University.  http://www.mlive.com/environment/index.ssf/2008/02/epa_zebra_mussels_may_increase.html

February 7th, Detroit Free Press story the spread of quagga mussels and declining salmon populations in the Great  Lakes includes  a quote by GLERL scientist Tom Nalepa.  http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080207/SPORTS10/802070406/1058

January 15, 2008

Contents

1. New Information Services Branch Chief
2. GLERL 2008 Projects
3. Met Stations
4. Distributed Large Basin Runoff Models
5. GLANSIS
   
6. New Reprints
7. Web Hot Items
8. GLERL in the News - Water Levels
9. CEGLHH - Harmful Algal Bloom Training Workshops

2) GLERL 2008 Projects
Following is a list of the GLERL projects for 2008.  Please let me know if you would like more information on any of these.

• Adaptive Integrated Framework - Saginaw Bay
  
• Lake Erie
  
• International Field Years on Lake Erie (IFYLE)
  
• Influence of Hypoxia...in Lake Erie - IFYLE
• Impacts of Hypoxia on benthos of Central Lake Erie
• Fish diet and condition with low oxygen - IFYLE
• ECOFORE: Forecasting the causes and impacts of Lake Erie Hypoxia
• Time series measurements in Lake Erie
• River Discharge as a predictor of Lake Erie Yellow perch
• Coupled hydrodynamic-ecological model of Lake Erie
• Observing Systems
  
• CoastWatch Operations
• Environmental Monitoring with Airborne Hyperspectral Imagery
• Satellite SAR Ice Mapping with COSMOS  and RADARSAT
• New MODIS algorithm for CHL, DOC and suspended minerals
• Optical Properties of the Great Lakes
• Real-time environmental coastal observation network
• Real-time meteorological observation network
• Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting
• Oceans and Human Health (OHH)
  
• Center for Great Lakes and Human Health
• Evaluation of the Hazard of HABs for Human Health through Fish Consumptions - OHH
  
• In-situ monitoring using buy-mounted sensors - OHH
• GLERL ECOHAB: An Integrated Approach for monitoring and event response - OHH
• OHH: Microcystins in the Great Lakes
• Near-Shore Transport: Modeling, Observations, and Beach Closure Forecasting - OHH
• Nearshore HADCP measurements - OHH
• Invasive Species
• NCRAIS
• Great Lakes Aquatic Nonindegenous Species Information System
• Coastwise ANS
• Ballast Vector Research Consolidation
• Condition of western Lake Erie dreissenids and Lake Michigan
• Evolution of Invasive Species
• Effects of non-indigenous invertebrates
• Implications of Cercopagis and Bythotrephes to alewife and stability of the Lake Michigan pelagic food web
• Changes in the pelagic food web of southern Lake Michigan
• Dreissenid mussels as homeostatic filter feeders and nutrient excreters
• Influence of Trace Metals and Zebra Mussels on Microcystis
• Other Biology
• Genetic and Environmental Factors influencing Microcystis bloom toxicity
• Recruitment of Great Lakes Fishes: A Meta-Analysis
• Mapping the condition of Diporeia
• Status of Macroinvertebrates in Lake Ontario
• Long Term trends in Benthic Populations
• Pelagic-Benthic Coupling in nearshore Lake Michigan: Linking pelagic inputs to benthic productivity
• Assessments of benthic macroinvertebrate communities in the Great Lakes region
• Diets and Condition of Forage Fish in Southern Lake Huron
• Contaminants
• Long- Term Changes in Daphnid Responses to Great Lakes Contaminants
• Causes, Consequences and Correctives of fish contamination in the Detroit River AOC
• Bayesian multilevel discrete time hazard analysis
• Climate/Weather/Ice
• Coupling QPE….to Better Estimate Overlake Precipitation
• Statistic Downscaling of Precipitation
• Great Lakes Sensitivity to Climate Forcing
• Dynamical Modeling of Great Lakes Regional Climate
• Lakes in General Circulation Models
  
• Great Lakes Ice Model (GLIM)
• Ice cover and climate patterns
• Physical/Hydrology
• Next Generation Large-Basin Runoff Models 
• Improving DLBRM’s Capabilities to Forecast
• Measurement and Modeling of Wave-induced Sediment Resuspension in nearshore water
• Energy Budget-based Simulation of Evapotranspiration
  
• Thermal structure monitoring and related studies
• Technology Development
• Alliance for Coastal Technologies (ACT)
  
• Microsensor development
• Lake Champlain
  
• Outside the Great Lakes
• NGOMEX - Hypoxic Effects on the Living Resources of the Northern Gulf of Mexico
• Fronts, Physics and Fishes in the Northern Adriatic Sea Workshop
• Habitat mediated predator-prey interactions in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico
• Temperature and Salinity effects on Shrimps
• Bayesian Implementation of a Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia Model

3) Met Stations
Some of GLERL's Meteorological Stations are transitioning to the National Weather Service.  All of NOAA's stations on the Great Lakes (including the ones still maintained by GLERL, those transitioning to NWS and additional NWS stations) can be accessed via http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/WestGL.shtml and http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/EastGL.shtml

• Reference or contact and/or verifier
• Specific location (Lat/lon if available)
• Date (at least to year) - year accuracy (actual, estimated, or publication year)
  
• Status (isolated report, established [multiple collections at site or reproducing] or failed)

8) GLERL in the News - Water Levels
Excerpt from
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Lake levels may fall to uncharted territory:  Region's mayors urge action, but problems are many, varied.  By DAN EGAN.  Jan. 1, 2008 

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration water gauges showed that on Christmas Eve the surface of the lake had dropped to about 575 feet, 9 inches above sea level. The record low for the lake, set in April 1964, is actually a few inches above that.  Because hydrologists use monthly averages to set lake level records, nobody at this point is saying the lake officially hit an all-time low. But Lake Michigan is now about 2 1/2 feet below its long-term average, and water experts said it might be only a matter of weeks before levels dip into uncharted territory.

Levels on Lakes Michigan and Huron have never been constant since record keeping began in the mid-1800s. The water level has fluctuated by about 6 feet between its record peak and low, but severe swings have historically occurred over several years or even decades.  The recent drops have been precipitous. In just the last 12 months, levels have plummeted about a foot and a half.  "That is pretty significant," said Cynthia Sellinger, a hydrologist with the NOAA.

Yet until the lake crosses its record-low threshold set in 1964, people can at least take solace in the notion that things are still within the normal range, that things have been worse. But once the lake dips below its all-time low, the next question is: Where will it stop?   Sellinger said the low lake levels might well be something people have to get used to, and not just because of what might have happened on the St. Clair River bottom.  She recently co-wrote a study that looked at precipitation and evaporation levels over Lakes Michigan and Huron, and she discovered a worrisome trend tied to increased temperatures in the region over the past few decades. She said precipitation since 1978 has declined and evaporation has increased to the point where, essentially, the sky over the lakes is now taking more water from them than it is giving them.  "Things are warming, and we're getting more evaporation, and that means lower lake levels," she said.  Sellinger said her research showed a similar situation in the 1930s and the 1960s when the lakes also shrank dramatically. They also rebounded quickly. She said only time will tell if what has happened is just part of the normal cycles.  "That's the biggest question," she said. "Is this going to continue?"

Also A January 5th AP story on rebounding Lake Superior water levels includes quotes by GLERL Deputy Director Cynthia Sellinger. Story is at:  http://www.mlive.com/newsflash/index.ssf?/base/news-49/1199567358265210.xml&storylist=newsmichigan

and a January 10 article in the Bay City Times http://www.mlive.com/environment/index.ssf/2008/01/warmwinter_cycles_accelerating.html

9) CEGLHH - Harmful Algal Bloom Training Workshops

The NOAA Center of Excellence for Great Lakes and Human Health, Minnesota Sea Grant, and Minnesota Pollution Control Agency will be co-hosting Harmful Algal Bloom Training Workshops to assist Minnesota state and local decision makers with algae identification and public communication. This one-day workshop will be held in three different locations within Minnesota. Registration is required. Please visit: www.seagrant.umn.edu/news for more details or contact sonia.joseph@noaa.gov.