Finance and Economics Discussion Series
		1999 FEDS papers FEDS ordering information

1999-68 (November)
Credit Constraints, Consumer Leasing and the Automobile Replacement Decision
Kathleen W. Johnson
Abstract | Full paper (139 KB PDF) | Full paper (821 KB Postscript)

1999-67 (December)
Efficient Monetary Policy Design Near Price Stability
Athanasios Orphanides and Volker Wieland
Abstract | Full paper (300 KB PDF) | Full paper (1326 KB Postscript)

1999-66 (December)
Temporary Employment and the Natural Rate of Unemployment
Maria Ward Otoo
Abstract | Full paper (50 KB PDF)

1999-65 (November)
Are Oil Shocks Inflationary? Asymmetric and Nonlinear Specifications versus Changes in Regime
Mark A. Hooker
Abstract | Full paper (72 KB PDF) | Full paper (819 KB Postscript)

1999-64 (December)
The Automatic Stabilizers: Quietly Doing their Thing
Darrel S. Cohen and Glenn R. Follette
Abstract | Full paper (1167 KB PDF)

1999-63 (December)
Is Corporate Governance Ineffective in Emerging Markets?
Michael S. Gibson
Abstract | Full paper (335 KB PDF)
This is a new version of this paper dated December 2002; previous version was dated November 1999.

1999-62 (December)
Nonparametric Estimation of Multifactor Continuous-Time Interest Rate Models
Chris Downing
Abstract | Full paper (509 KB PDF)

1999-61 (November)
Do Pension Plans with Participant Investment Choice Teach Households to Hold More Equity?
Scott Weisbenner
Abstract | Full paper (148 KB PDF)

1999-60 (November)
Consumer Sentiment and the Stock Market
Maria Ward Otoo
Abstract | Full paper (1270 KB PDF)

1999-59 (November)
Share Repurchases and Employee Stock Options and their Implications for S&P 500 Share Retirements and Expected Returns
J. Nellie Liang and Steven A. Sharpe
Abstract | Full paper (43 KB PDF)

1999-58 (October)
The Evolution of the Demand for Temporary Help Supply Employment in the United States
Marcello Estevao and Saul Lach
Abstract | Full paper (139 KB PDF) | Full paper (971 KB Postscript)

1999-57 (October)
Measuring Temporary Labor Outsourcing in U.S. Manufacturing
Marcello Estevao and Saul Lach
Abstract | Full paper (434 KB PDF) | Full paper (3121 KB Postscript)

1999-56 (October)
Is Hysteresis Important for U.S. Unemployment?
John M. Roberts and Norman J. Morin
Abstract | Full paper (275 KB PDF)

1999-55 (October)
Tests for Non-Linear Dynamics in Systems of Non-Stationary Economic Time Series: The Case of Short-Term U.S. Interest Rates
Barry E. Jones and Travis D. Nesmith
Abstract | Full paper (608 KB PDF)

1999-54 (October)
Measurement Error in General Equilibrium: The Aggregate Effects of Noisy Economic Indicators
Antulio N. Bomfim
Abstract | Full paper (267 KB PDF) | Full paper (235 KB Postscript)

1999-53 (October)
The Causes of Business Cycles and the Cyclicality of Real Wages
Charles A. Fleischman
Abstract | Full paper (162 KB PDF) | Full paper (1516 KB Postscript)

1999-52 (October)
Measuring the Cyclicality of Real Wages: How Important is Aggregation Across Industries?
Eric T. Swanson
Abstract | Full paper (300 KB PDF)

1999-51 (October)
Optimal Control of Large, Forward-Looking Models: Efficient Solutions and Two Examples
Frederico S. Finan and Robert Tetlow
Abstract | Full paper (34 KB PDF) | Full paper (152 KB Postscript) | Source Code (7 KB ZIP)

1999-50 (September)
Do Noisy Data Exacerbate Cyclical Volatility?
Antulio N. Bomfim
Abstract | Full paper (171 KB PDF)

1999-49 (September)
What's Happened to the Phillips Curve?
Flint Brayton, John M. Roberts, and John C. Williams
Abstract | Full paper (165 KB PDF) | Full paper (799 KB Postscript)

1999-48 (September )
Monetary Policy, Parameter Uncertainty and Optimal Learning
Volker Wieland
Abstract | Full paper (3356 KB PDF)

1999-47 (September)
Option Prices with Uncertain Fundamentals Theory and Evidence on the Dynamics of Implied Volatilities
Alexander David and Pietro Veronesi
Abstract | Full paper (644 KB PDF) | Full paper (772 KB Postscript)
This is a new version of this paper dated November 1999; previous version was August 1999.

1999-46 (August)
Minimum Wage Careers?
William J. Carrington and Bruce C. Fallick
Abstract | Full paper (1855 KB PDF) | Full paper (948 KB Postscript)

1999-45 (August)
Errors in the Measurement of the Output Gap and the Design of Monetary Policy
Athanasios Orphanides, Richard D. Porter, David Reifschneider, Robert Tetlow, and Frederico Finan
Abstract | Full paper (145 KB PDF) | Full paper (1706 KB Postscript)

1999-44 (August)
Three Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Era
David L. Reifschneider and John C. Williams
Abstract | Full paper (679 KB PDF) | Full paper (4750 KB Postscript)

1999-43 (August)
Oil and the Macroeconomy Revisited
Mark Hooker
Abstract | Full paper (96 KB PDF) | Full paper (783 KB Postscript)

1999-42 (July)
Optimal Discretion
Yvan Lengwiler and Athanasios Orphanides
Abstract | Full paper (202 KB PDF) | Full paper (451 KB Postscript)

1999-41 (July)
The Dynamics of Market Entry: The Effects of Mergers and Acquisitions on De Novo Entry and Small Business Lending in the Banking Industry
Allen N. Berger, Seth D. Bonime, Lawrence G. Goldberg, and Lawrence J. White
Abstract | Full paper (5433 KB PDF)

1999-40 (July)
Conglomeration Versus Strategic Focus: Evidence from the Insurance Industry
Allen N. Berger, J. David Cummins, Mary A. Weiss, and Hongmin Zi
Abstract | Full paper (4563 KB PDF)

1999-39 (July)
Interest-Rate Smoothing and Optimal Monetary Policy: A Review of Recent Empirical Evidence
Brian Sack and Volker Wieland
Abstract | Full paper (2752 KB PDF) | Full paper (1259 KB Postscript)

1999-38 (July)
The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time
Athanasios Orphanides and Simon van Norden
Abstract | Full paper (297 KB PDF) | Full paper (1014 KB Postscript)

1999-37 (July )
Monitoring, Moral Hazard, and Market Power: A Model of Bank Lending
Daniel Covitz and Erik Heitfield
Abstract | Full paper (236 KB PDF) | Full paper (244 KB Postscript)

1999-36 (July)
Computers and Growth with Costs of Adjustment: Will the Future Look Like the Past?
Michael T. Kiley
Abstract | Full paper (85 KB PDF)

1999-35 (July)
Finance and Growth: Theory and New Evidence
Paul Harrison, Oren Sussman, and Joseph Zeira
Abstract | Full paper (2682 KB PDF)

1999-34 (August)
The Banking Industry and the Safety Net Subsidy
Andreas Lehnert and Wayne Passmore
Abstract | Full paper (124 KB PDF) | Full paper (148 KB Postscript)

1999-33 (July)
Pricing Systemic Crises: Monetary and Fiscal Policy When Savers are Uncertain
Andreas Lehnert and Wayne Passmore
Abstract | Full paper (185 KB PDF) | Full paper (270 KB Postscript)

1999-32 (July )
Recent Trends in Compensation Practices
David Lebow, Louise Sheiner, Larry Slifman, and Martha Starr-McCluer
Abstract | Full paper (2024 KB PDF)

1999-31 (July)
Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity: Evidence from the Employment Cost Index
David E. Lebow, Raven E. Saks, and Beth Anne Wilson
Abstract | Full paper (288 KB PDF) | Full paper (1062 KB Postscript)

1999-30 (July)
Intra-Household Allocation and the Mental Health of Children: Structural Estimation Analysis
Morris A. Davis and E. Michael Foster
Abstract | Full paper (206 KB PDF) | Full paper (1692 KB Postscript)

1999-29 (July)
A Coherent Framework for Stress-Testing
Jeremy Berkowitz
Abstract | Full paper (76 KB PDF) | Full paper (500 KB Postscript)

1999-28 (May)
Why Are Bank Profits So Persistent? The Roles of Product Market Competition, Informational Opacity, and Regional/Macroeconomic Shocks
Allen N. Berger, Seth D. Bonime, Daniel M. Covitz, and Diana Hancock
Abstract | Full paper (3078 KB PDF)

1999-27 (May)
Investment Behavior, Observable Expectations, and Internal Funds
Jason G. Cummins, Kevin A. Hassett, and Stephen D. Oliner
Abstract | Full paper (326 KB PDF) | Full paper (761 KB Postscript)

1999-26 (May)
An Analysis of Government Spending in the Frequency Domain
Darrel Cohen
Abstract | Full paper (2841 KB PDF)

1999-25 (April)
Competition, Small Business Financing, and Discrimination: Evidence from a New Survey
Ken Cavalluzzo, Linda Cavalluzzo, and John D. Wolken
Abstract | Full paper (240 KB PDF) | Full paper (4527 KB Postscript)

1999-24 (April)
Consumption Smoothing Among Working-Class American Families Before Social Insurance
Michael G. Palumbo, John A. James, and Mark Thomas
Abstract | Full paper (154 KB PDF) | Full paper (1503 KB Postscript)

1999-23 (April)
Corporate Payout Policy and Managerial Stock Incentives
George W. Fenn and Nellie Liang
Abstract | Full paper (128 KB PDF) | Full paper (1291 KB Postscript)

1999-22 (April)
Wage Rigidity: A Look Inside the Firm
Beth Anne Wilson
Abstract | Full paper (1956 KB PDF) | Full paper (838 KB Postscript)

1999-21 (April)
Tax Incentives, Material Inputs, and the Supply Curve for Capital Equipment
Karl Whelan
Abstract | Full paper (222 KB PDF) | Full paper (483 KB Postscript)

1999-20 (April)
Demographics and Medical Care Spending: Standard and Non-Standard Effects
Louise Sheiner and David Cutler
Abstract | Full paper (3124 KB PDF)

1999-19 (April)
Health Care Costs, Wages, and Aging
Louise Sheiner
Abstract | Full paper (2695 KB PDF)

1999-18 (April)
The Geography of Medicare
Louise Sheiner and David Cutler
Abstract | Full paper (867 KB PDF)

1999-17 (March)
The Measurement of Consumer Expectations Using Survey Data
Martha Starr-McCluer
Abstract | Full paper (2177 KB PDF)

1999-16 (March)
Net Migration and State Labor Market Dynamics
Joshua Hojvat Gallin
Abstract | Full paper (284 KB PDF) | Full paper (279 KB Postscript)

1999-15 (April)
Unemployment Risk and Precautionary Wealth: Evidence from Households' Balance Sheets
Christopher D. Carroll, Karen E. Dynan, and Spencer D. Krane
Abstract | Full paper (437 KB PDF)

1999-14 (February)
Short Rate Expectations, Term Premiums, and Central Bank Use of Derivatives to Reduce Policy Uncertainty
P.A. Tinsley
Abstract | Full paper (204 KB PDF) | Full paper (472 KB Postscript)

1999-13 (February)
What Explains the Dramatic Changes in Cost and Profit Performance of the U.S. Banking Industry?
Allen N. Berger and Loretta J. Mester
Abstract | Full paper (4048 KB PDF)

1999-12 (February)
Simple Rules for Monetary Policy
John C. Williams
Abstract | Full paper (280 KB PDF) | Full paper (711 KB Postscript)

1999-11 (January)
Evaluating the Forecasts of Risk Models
Jeremy Berkowitz
Abstract | Full paper (133 KB PDF) | Full paper (1112 KB Postscript)

1999-10 (January)
Simplicity Versus Optimality: The Choice of Monetary Policy Rules When Agents Must Learn
Robert J. Tetlow and Peter von zur Muehlen
Abstract | Full paper (3481 KB PDF)

1999-9 (February)
Asymmetric Information in the Labor Market: New Evidence on Layoffs, Recalls, and Unemployment
Nuria Rodriguez-Planas
Abstract | Full paper (4511 KB PDF)

1999-8 (January)
The Aggregate Change in Shares and the Level of Stock Prices
William R. Nelson
Abstract | Full paper (1403 KB PDF) | Full paper (45688 KB Postscript)

1999-7 (January)
Why Does the Change in Shares Predict Stock Returns
William R. Nelson
Abstract | Full paper (158 KB PDF) | Full paper (309 KB Postscript)

1999-6 (January)
Evidence of Excess Returns on Firms That Issue or Repurchase Equity
William R. Nelson
Abstract | Full paper (185 KB PDF)

1999-5 (January)
Workers' Knowledge of their Pension Coverage: A Reevaluation
Martha Starr-McCluer and Annika Sunden
Abstract | Full paper (44 KB PDF) | Full paper (109 KB Postscript)

1999-4 (January)
On the Finite-Sample Accuracy of Nonparametric Resampling Algorithms for Economic Time Series
Jeremy Berkowitz, Ionel Birgean, and Lutz Kilian
Abstract | Full paper (259 KB PDF) | Full paper (1313 KB Postscript)

1999-3 (January)
Models of Sectoral Reallocation
Eric T. Swanson
Abstract | Full paper (485 KB PDF) | Full paper (710 KB Postscript)

1999-2 (January)
Reexamining Stock Valuation and Inflation: The Implications of Analysts' Earnings Forecasts
Steven A. Sharpe
Abstract | Full paper (373 KB PDF)
The previous title of this paper was "Stock Prices, Expected Returns, and Inflation," dated January 1999.

1999-1 (January)
Partial Adjustment and Staggered Price Setting
Michael T. Kiley
Abstract | Full paper (177 KB Postscript)