Geochemistry and Hydroclimatology of Streams and Estuaries

The physical/chemical variability in our rivers and estuaries is large, but causes and interactions are not clearly defined. Variations forced by weather and climate appear to be very important, but we don't yet understand how riverine-esturarine systems operate on very short and moderately long time scales. Furthermore, the effect of anthropogenic activities also may be important. Without such information we cannot understand and predict how these systems respond to variations in climate and human activities including changes in the amount, character, and timing of freshwater, toxic- waste, sediment and plant-nutrient inflows to these environments. Project objectives are to better understand the variability of the physics (circulation) and chemistry (primarily oxygen, carbon, silicon, nitrogen and phosphorous dynamics) in riverine and estuarine environments, and to discriminate between natural variations due to atmospheric/oceanic forcing and human-caused impacts.

REPORTS PUBLISHED 1999-2008

Anslow, F.S., Hostetler, S., Bidlake, W.R., and Clark, P.U., 2008, Distributed energy balance modeling of South Cascade Glacier, Washington and assessment of model uncertainty: Journal of Geophysical Research, vol. 113, doi:10.1029/2007JF000850. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Barnett, T.P., Pierce, D.W., Hidalgo, H.G., Bonfils, C., Santer, B.D., Das, T., Bala, G., Wood, A.W., Nozawa, T., Mirin, A.A., Cayan, D.R., Dettinger, M.D., 2008, Human-Induced Changes in the Hydrology of the Western United States: Science, v. 316, p. 1080-1083. (on-line abstract or on-line paper in pdf format, 685 KB)

Bartlein, P.J., Hostetler, S.W., Shafer, S.L., Holman, J.O., and Solomon, A.M., 2008, Temporal and spatial structure in a daily wildfire-start data set from the western United States (1986–96): International Journal of Wildland Fire, v. 17, p. 8–17. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Brekke, L.D., Dettinger, M.D., Maurer, E.P., and Anderson, M., 2008, Significance of model credibility in projection distributions for regional hydroclimatological impacts of climate change: Climatic Change, v. 89, p. 371-394, doi:10.1007/s10584-007-9388-3. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Cayan, D.R., Bromirski, P.D., Hayhoe, K., Tyree, M., Dettinger, M.D., and Flick, R.E., 2008, Climate change projections of sea level extremes along the California coast: Climatic Change, v. 87 (Suppl. 1), p. S57-S73. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Cayan, D.R., Luers, A.L., Franco, G., Hanemann, M., Bart Croes, B., and Vine, E., 2008, Overview of the California climate change scenarios project: Climatic Change, v. 87 (Suppl. 1), p. s1-s6. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Cayan, D.R., Maurer, E.P., Dettinger, M.D., Tyree, M., and Hayhoe, K., 2008, Climate change scenarios for the California region: Climatic Change, v. 87 (Suppl. 1), p. S21-S42. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Dettinger, M.D., and Culberson, S., 2008, Internalizing climate change - Scientific resource management and the climate change challenges: San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science, v. 6, no. 2, 17 p. (on-line abstract or on-line article in pdf format, 2178 KB, open-access journal

Earman, S., and Dettinger, M., 2008, Monitoring networks for long-term recharge change in the mountains of California and Nevada--A meeting report: California Energy Commission PIER Energy-Related Environmental Research Report CEC-500-2008-006, 32 p. (on-line report in pdf format, 203 KB)

Flint, A.L., Flint, L.E., and Dettinger, M.D., 2008, Modeling soil moisture processes and recharge under a melting snowpack: Vadose Zone Journal, v. 7, p. 350-357, doi:10.2136/vzj2006.0135. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Funk, C., Dettinger, M., Brown, M., Verdin, J., Michaelsen, J., Barlow, M., and Hoell, A., 2008, Warming of the Indian Ocean threatens eastern and southern Africa food security, but could be mitigated by agricultural development: Proceedings, National Academies of Science, 105, doi/10.1073/pnas.0708196105, p. 11081-11086. (on-line abstract or on-line article in pdf format, 919 KB pubished by the National Academies of Science with open access.

Healey, M., Dettinger, M., and Norgaard, R., eds., 2008, State of the science for the Bay-Delta system -- Summary for policymakers and  the public: CALFED Science Program Report, 19 p. (on-line summary report)

Kueppers, L.M., M.A. Snyder, L.C. Sloan, D.R. Cayan, Dan, J. Jin, H. Kanamaru, M. Kanamitsu, N.L. Miller, M. Tyree, H. Du, and B. Weare, 2008, Seasonal temperature responses to land use change in the western United States: Global and Planetary Change, v. 60, no. 3-4, p. 250-264. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Lundquist, J.D., Dettinger, M., Stewart, I., and Cayan, D., 2008, Variability and trends in spring runoff in the western United States, in Waggoner, F., ed., Climate warming in western North America/Evidence and environmental effects: Utah State University Press, Chapter 5.

Neiman, P.J., Ralph, F.M., Wick, G.A., Lundquist, J.D., and Dettinger, M.D., 2008, Meteorological characteristics and overland precipitation impacts of atmospheric rivers affecting the West Coast of North America based on eight years of SSM/I satellite observations: Journal of Hydrometeorology, v. 9, no. 1, p. 22-47. (on-line abstract of journal article) 

Peterson, D.H., Stewart, I., and Murphy, F., 2008, Principal hydrologic responses to climatic and geologic variability in the Sierra Nevada, California: San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science, v. 6, issue 1 (February), article 3, 21 p. (on-line abstract or on-line article in pdf format, 5955 KB - "San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science" is an open access, peer-reviewed journal)

Reisen, W.K., Barker, C.M., Eldridge, B., Cayan, D., Tyree, M., and Dettinger, M., 2008, Impact of climate variations on mosquito abundance in California: Journal of Vector Ecology, v. 33, p. 89-98. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Taylor, S.V., D.R. Cayan, N.E. Graham, K.P. Georgakakos, 2008, Northwesterly surface winds over the eastern North Pacific Ocean in Spring and Summer: Journal of Geophysical Research, Atmospheres, v. 113, D02110, doi:10.1029/2006JD008053. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Dettinger, M.D., and Earman, S., 2007, Western ground water and climate change - Pivotal to supply sustainability or vulnerable in its own right?: Ground Water News and Views, Association of Ground Water Scientists and Engineers Newsletter, v. 4, no. 1, p. 4-5. (on-line article in pdf format)

Florsheim, J.L., and Dettinger, M., 2007, Climate and floods still govern California levee breaks: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 34, LL22403, doi:10.1029/2007GL031702 (on-line abstract of journal article)

Lundquist, J.D., and Cayan, D.R., 2007, Surface temperature patterns in complex terrain: Daily variations and long-term change in the central Sierra Nevada, California: Journal of Geophysical Research., v. 112, D11124, doi:10.1029/2006JD007561. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Malamud-Roam, F., Dettinger, M.D., Ingram, B.L., Hughes, M., and Florsheim, J., 2007, Holocene climates and connections between the San Francisco Bay estuary and its watershed - A review: San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science, v. 5, no. 1, article 3, 28 p. (on-line abstract and to down-load paper in pdf format, open-access journal)

Maurer, E.P., Stewart, I.T., Bonfils, C., Duffy, P.B., and Cayan, D.R., 2007: Detection, attribution, and sensitivity of trends toward earlier streamflow in the Sierra Nevada: Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 112, D11118, doi:10.1029/2006JD008088. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Alfaro, E.J.,Gershunov, A., and Cayan, D.R., 2006, Prediction of summer maximum and minimum temperature over the western U.S. - The role of soil moisture and sea surface temperature: Journal of Climate, v. 19, no. 8, p. 1407-1421. (on-line abstract)

Bales, R., Molotch, N., Painter, T., Dettinger, M.D., Rice, R., and Dozier, J., 2006, Mountain hydrology of the western US: Water Resources Research, v. 42, W08432, doi:10.1029/2005WR004387. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Cayan, D.C,  Bromirski, P., Hayhoe, K., Tyree, M., Dettinger, M., and Flick, R., 2006: Projecting Future Sea Level: Climate Action Team Reports to the Governor and Legislature, publication # CEC-500-2005-202-SF, 53 p. (on-line report in pdf format, 1.59 MB)

Cayan, D.C,  Maurer, E., Dettinger, M., Tyree, M., Hayhoe, K. Bonfils, C., Duffy, P., and Santer, B., 2006: Climate Scenarios for California: Climate Action Team Reports to the Governor and Legislature, publication # CEC-500-2005-203-SF, 44 p. (on-line report in pdf format, 1.7 MB)

Cayan, D.C,  M.D. Dettinger, et. al., 2006, Projecting Future Sea Level: Climate Action Team Reports to the Governor and Legislature, publication # CEC-500-2005-202-SF, 53 p. (on-line report in pdf format, 1.9 MB)

CIRMOUNT Executive Committee, 2006, Mapping new terrain -- Report of the Consortium for Integrated Mountain Climate Research in Western Mountains (CIRMOUNT): U.S. Forest Service Pacific Southwest Research Station (Albany, CA) Miscellaneous Publication PSW-MISC-77, 29 p. (on-line report in pdf format)

Dettinger, M.D., 2006, A component-resampling approach for estimating probability distributions from small forecast ensembles: Climatic Change, v. 76, p. 149-168. (on-line abstract or on-line report in pdf format, 530 KB)

Hanson, R.T., Dettinger, M.D., and Newhouse, M.W., 2006, Relations between climate variability and hydrologic time series from four alluvial basins across the southwestern United States: Hydrogeology Journal, v. 14, p. 1,122-1,146. doi: 10.1007/s10040-006-0067-7(on-line abstract of journal article)

Knowles, N., Dettinger, M.D., and Cayan, D.R., 2006, Trends in snowfall versus rainfall in the western United States: Journal of Climate, v. 18, p. 4,545-4,559. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Ralph, F.M., Neiman, P.J., Wick, G.A., Gutman, S.I., Dettinger, M.D., Cayan, D.R., and White, A.B., 2006, Flooding on California's Russian River: Role of atmospheric rivers: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 33, doi:10.1029/2006GL026689. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Snyder, M., L. Kueppers, L. Sloan, D.Cayan, et al., 2006, Regional Climate effects of the irrigation and urbanization in the western United States: A model Intercomparison. PIER Project Report, CEC-500-2006-031, 35 p. (on-line report in pdf format, 1.7 MB)

Westerling, A.L., H.G. Hidalgo, D.R. Cayan, and T.W. Swetnam, 2006,Warming and earlier spring increase Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity: Science, 313, 940-943. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Betancourt, J.L., Schwartz, M.D., Breshears, D.D., Cayan, D.R., Dettinger, M.D., Inouye, D.W., Post, E., and Reed, B.C., 2005, Implementing a U.S. national phenology network: Eos Transactions American Geophysical Union, v. 86, p. 539, 542. (on-line report in pdf format, 261 KB)

Bromirski, P.D., Cayan, D.R., and Flick, R.E., 2005: Wave spectral energy variability in the Northeast Pacific: Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, v. 110, C03005, doi:10.1029/2004JC002398. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Burns, J.C., Cayan, D.R., Tong, G., Turner, C.L., Shike, H., Kawasaki, O., Nakamura, Y., Yashiro, M., and Yanagawa, H, 2005: Seasonality and temporal clustering of Kawasaki Syndrome in Japan, 1987-2000: Epidemiology, v. 16, no. 2, p. 220-225. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Cayan, D., Dettinger, M., Stewart, I., and Knowles, N., 2005, Recent changes toward earlier springs---Early signs of climate warming in western North America: Watershed Management Council Networker, Spring 2005, p. 3-7. (on-line article in pdf format)

Cloern, J.E., Schraga, T.S., Lopez, C.B., Knowles, N., Labiosa, R.G., and Dugdale, R., 2005, Climate anomalies generate an exceptional dinoflagellate bloom in San Francisco Bay , Geophysical Research Letters, v. 32, no. 14, L14608, doi:10.1029/2005GL023321. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Dettinger, M.D., 2005, A long-term (50 yr) historical perspective on flood-generating winter storms in the American River basin: Proc. 2005 California Extreme Precipitation Symposium, 62-73. (on-line paper in pdf format)

Dettinger, M.D., 2005, From climate-change spaghetti to climate-change distributions for 21st century California: San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science, v. 3(1), 14 p. (on-line abstract or on-line paper in pdf format)

Dettinger, M.D., 2005, Changes in streamflow timing in the western United States in recent decades: U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 2005-3018. (on-line fact sheet in html or on-line fact sheet in pdf format, 739 KB)

Florsheim, J., and Dettinger, M., 2005, Influence of anthropogenic alterations on geomorphic response to climate variations and change in San Francisco Bay-Delta and watershed: Watershed Management Council Networker, Spring 2005, p. 13-16. (on-line article in pdf format)

Hanson, R.T. and Dettinger, M.D., 2005, Ground-water/surface-water responses to global climate simulations, Santa Clara-Calleguas basin, Ventura County, California, 1950-93: Journal of the American Water Resources Association, v. 43, p. 517-536. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Hidalgo, H.G., Cayan, D.R., and Dettinger, M.D., 2005, Sources of variability of evapotranspiration in California: Journal of Hydrometeorology, v. 6, p. 3-19. (on-line abstract or on-line journal article in pdf format)

Koczot, K.M., Jeton, A.E., McGurk, B., and Dettinger, M.D., 2005, Precipitation-runoff processes in the Feather River basin, northeastern California, with prospects for streamflow predictability: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2004-5202, 82 p.

Lundquist, J.D., and Dettinger, M.D., 2005, How snowpack heterogeneity affects diurnal streamflow timing: Water Resources Research, v. 41, doi:10.1029/2004WR003649. (on-line abstract or on-line journal article in pdf format)

Lundquist, J.D., Dettinger, M.D., and Cayan, D.R., 2005, Snow-fed streamflow timing at different basin scales: Case study of the Tuolumne River above Hetch Hetchy, Yosemite, California: Water Resources Research, v. 41, no. 7, W07005, doi:10.1029/2004WR003933 (on-line abstract or on-line article in pdf format)

Peterson, D.H., Lundquist, J.D., Stewart, I., Knowles, N., Solomon, M and Hager, S.W., 2005, Sierra Nevada Hydroclimatology:  An experimental prediction of maximum daily snowmelt discharge in 2005. (available on-line only, in pdf format).

Peterson, D., Smith, R., Hager, S., Hicke, J., Dettinger, M., and Huber, K., 2005, River chemistry as a monitor of Yosemite Park microclimates : EOS Transactions Americal Geophysical Union, v. 86, p. 285, 288.

Peterson, D.H., Smith, R.E., Stewart, I., Knowles, N., Soulard, C. and Hager, S.W., 2005, Snowmelt Discharge Characteristics, Sierra Nevada, California: U.S. Geological Survey, SIR-2005-5056, 13p. (on-line abstract or on-line publication in pdf format, 2MB; also see errata sheet).

Stewart, I., Cayan, D., and Dettinger, M.D., 2005, Changes towards earlier streamflow timing across western North America: Journal of Climate, v. 18, p. 1,136-1,155. (on-line abstract or on-line article in pdf format)

Alfaro, E., Gershunov, A., Cayan, D., Steinemann, A., Peirce, D., and Barnett, T., 2004, A method for prediction of California summer air surface temperature: Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, v. 85, p. 553, 557-558.

Dettinger, M.D., Cayan, D.R., Meyer, M.K., and Jeton, A.E., 2004, Simulated hydrologic responses to climate variations and change in the Merced, Carson, and American River basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900-2099: Climatic Change, v. 62, no. 1, p. 283-317. (on-line abstract or on-line report in pdf format)

Dettinger, M.D., Redmond, K.T., and Cayan, D.R., 2004, Winter orographic-precipitation ratios in the Sierra Nevada - Large-scale atmospheric circulations and hydrologic consequences: Journal of Hydrometeorology, v. 6, p. 1,102-1,116. (on-line abstract or on-line article, in pdf format)

Hanson, R.T., Newhouse, M.W., and Dettinger, M.D., 2004, A methodology to assess relations between climate variability and variations in hydrologic time series in the southwestern United States: Journal of Hydrology, v. 287, p. 252-269. (on-line abstract)

Hayhoe, K., Daniel Cayan, D.R., Field, C.B., Frumhoff, P.C., Maurer, E.P., Miller, N.L., Moser, S.C., Schneider, S.H., Cahill, K.N., Cleland, E.E., Dale, L., Drapek, R., Hanemann, R.M., Kalkstein, L.S.,Lenihan, J., Lunch, C.K., Neilson, R.P., Sheridan, S.C., and Verville, J.H., 2004: Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California: Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, v. 101, no. 34, 12422-1242. (on-line abstract of journal article)

Knowles, N., and Cayan, D., 2004, Elevational dependence of projected hydrologic changes in the San Francisco Estuary and watershed: Climatic Change, v. 62, no. 1, p. 319-336. (on-line abstract or on-line report in pdf format)

Lundquist, J.D., Cayan, D.R., and Dettinger, M.D., 2004, Spring onset in the Sierra Nevada -- When is snowmelt independent of elevation?: Journal of Hydrometeorology, v. 5, p. 325-340. (on line abstract or on-line report in pdf format)

National Research Council, 2004, Groundwater Fluxes Across Interfaces: : National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 85 p. (on-line book)

Pagano, T., Pasteris, P., Dettinger, M., Cayan, D., and Redmond, K., 2004, Water year 2004: Western water managers feel the heat: EOS, Transactions American Geophysical Union, v. 85, p. 385, 392-393.

Peterson, D., Smith, R., and Hager, S., 2004, A walk through the hydroclimate network in Yosemite National Park: River Chemistry, Sierra Nature Notes, v. 4. (on-line article in pdf format)

Peterson, D., Smith, R., Hager, S., Cayan, D. and Dettinger, M., 2004, Air temperature and snowmelt discharge characteristics, Merced River at Happy Isles, Yosemite National Park, Central Sierra Nevada, Proceedings of the Twentieth Annual Pacific Climate Workshop, p. 53-64. (on-line article)

Peterson, D., Smith, R., Hager, S., Huber, K., Dettinger, M., and DiLeo, J., 2004, Alpine hydroclimatology, exploring the mystery of salinity change in portions of the Stanislaus and Merced Rivers: U.S. Geological Survey Special Interest Publication, 18 p. and Scripps Institution of Oceanography (CAP) California Applications Programs. (on-line article in pdf format)

Schemel, L.E., Sommer, T.R., Muller-Solger, A.B., and Harrell, W.C., 2004, Hydrologic variability, water chemistry, and phytoplankton biomass in a large floodplain of the Sacramento River, CA, U.S.A.: Hydrobiologia, v. 513, p. 129-139. (on-line abstract)

Simpson, J.J., Dettinger, M.D., Gerhke, F., McIntyre, T.J., and Hufford, G.I., 2004, Hydrologic scales, cloud variability, remote sensing and models -- Implications for forecasting snowmelt and streamflow: Weather and Forecasting, v. 19, p. 251-276. (on-line abstract)

Stewart, I., Cayan, D.R., and Dettinger, M.D., 2004, Changes in snowmelt runoff timing in western North America under a "Business as usua" climate change scenario: Climatic change, v. 62, no. 1, p. 217-232. (on-line abstract or on-line report in pdf format)

Topping, B.R., Kuwabara, J.S., Marvin-DiPasquale, M.C., Agee, J.L., Kieu, L.H., Flanders, J.R., Parchaso, F., Hager, S.W., Lopez, C.B., and Krabbenhoft, D.P., 2004, Sediment remobilization of mercury in south San Francisco Bay, California: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2004-5196, 27 p. + appendices. (on-line executive summary or on-line report in pdf format, 6.9 MB)

Westerling, A.L., Cayan, D.R., Brown, T.J., Hall, B.L., and Riddle, L.G., 2004, Climate, Santa Ana winds, and autumn wildfires in southern California: EOS, v. 85, p. 289, 296.

Bromirski, P.D., Flick, R.E., and Cayan, D.R., 2003, Storminess variability along the California Coast: 1858-2000: Journal of Climate, v. 16, p. 982-993. (on-line abstract)

Cayan, D.R., Dettinger, MD., Redmond, K.T., McCabe, G.J., Knowles, N., and Peterson, D.H., 2003 The transboundary setting of California's water and hydropower systems - Linkages between the Sierra Nevada, Columbia River, and Colorado River hydroclimates, in Diaz, H.F., and Woodhouse, B., eds., Climate and Transboundary Issues, v. 16.

Cayan, D., VanScoy, M., Dettinger, M.D., and Helly, J., 2003, The wireless watershed at the Santa Margarita Ecological Reserve: Southwest Hydrology, v. 2, no. 5, p. 18-19. (on-line article, in pdf format)

Dettinger, M.D., Bennett, W.A., Cayan, D.R., Florsheim, J., Hughes, M., Ingram, B.L., Jassby, A., Knowles, N., Malamud, F., Peterson, D.H., Redmond, K., and Smith, L., 2003, Climate science issues and needs of the CALFED Bay-Delta Program: American Meteorological Society, 83rd Annual Meeting, Impacts of Water Variability Symposium, Long Beach, CA, 7.11-1 to 7.11-4. (on-line paper, pdf format)

Dettinger, M.D., and Cayan, D.R., 2003, Interseasonal covariability of Sierra Nevada streamflow and San Francisco Bay salinity: Journal of Hydrology, v. 277, no. 3-4, p. 164-181. (on-line abstract)

DiLeo, J., Butler, M., Cayan, D., Clow, D., Dettinger, M., Gehvke, F., Hager, S., Lundquist, J., McCurdy, G., Peterson, D., Redmond, K., Riddle, L., Smith, R., and Van Wagtendonk, J., 2003, A Notebook of Hydroclimatology Sites/Activities, Yosemite National Park: U.S. Geological Survey General Interest Publication, 34 p. (on-line report in pdf format)

Gershunov, A., and Cayan, D.R., 2003, Heavy daily precipitation frequency over the contiguous U.S.: Sources of climatic variability and predictability: Journal of Climate, v.16, no. 16, p. 2752–2765. (on-line abstract)

Lundquist, J.D., Cayan, D.R., and Dettinger, M.D., 2003, Meteorology and hydrology in Yosemite National Park: A sensor network application, in Zhao, F., and Guibas, L., eds., Information Processing in Sensor Networks: Springer-Verlag, p. 518-528.

Lundquist, J.D., and Dettinger, M.D., 2003, Linking diurnal cycles in river flow to interannual variations in climate: American Meteorological Society, 83rd Annual Meeting, 17th Conference on Hydrology, Long Beach, CA, J2.4-1 to J2.4-5.

Peterson, D., Smith, R., Hager, S., Huber, K., Dettinger, M., and DiLeo, J., 2003, Alpine hydroclimatology, exploring the mastery of salinity change in portions of the Stanislous and Merced Rivers, U.S. Geological Survey Special Interest Publication, 18 p. and Scripps Institution of Oceanography (CAP) California Applications Programs. (on-line report in pdf format)

Schemel, L.E., Brown, R.L., and Bell, N.W., 2003, Salinity and temperature in South San Francisco Bay, California, at Dumbarton Bridge: Results from the 1999-2002 water years and an overview of previous data: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations 03-4005, 32 p. (on-line abstract or on-line pdf file, 0.7MB)

Smith, R.E., Foxgrover, A., and Smith, P.E., 2003, Suisun Bay and Delta Bathymetry—Production of a 10m Grid: U.S. Geological Survey Interactive Web Publication, based on a poster presented at the CALFED Science Conference, Sacramento, California, January 2003.

Westerling, A.L., Gershunov, A., Brown, T.J., Cayan, D.R., and Dettinger, M.D., 2003, Climate and wildfire in the western United States: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, May 2003, p. 595-604. (on-line abstract)

White, W.B., Dettinger, M.D., and Cayan, D.R., 2003, Sources of global warming of the upper ocean on decadal period scales: Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 108, no.C8, 4-1 to 4-15, doi:10.1029/2002JC001396. (on-line abstract)

White, W.B., Tourre, Y.M., Barlow, M., and Dettinger, M., 2003, A delayed action oscillator shared by biennial, interannual, and decadal signals in the Pacific Basin: Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 108, no. C3, p. 15. (on-line abstract)

Cayan, D.R., Tyree, M.., and Dettinger, M., 2002, Climate linkages to female Culex Cx. tarsalis abundance in California: Proceedings, Annual California Mosquito Conference, Tenaya Lodge, CA, 10 p.

Dettinger, M.D., 2002, Documentation of methods used to project climate scenarios for the next 50 years for the Santa Clara-Calleguas basin (appendix 3), in Hanson, R.T., Martin, P., and Koczot, K.M., Simulation of Ground-water/Surface-Water Flow in the Santa Clara-Calleguas Ground-Water Basin, Ventura County, California: U.S. Geological Survey Water Resources Investigations Report 02-4136, p. 194-200. (on-line appendices, in pdf format)

Dettinger, M., Cayan, D., and Redmond, K., 2002, United States streamflow probabilities and uncertainties based on anticipated El Nino, water year 2003: Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin, v. 11, no. 3-4, p. 46-52. (on-line report in pdf format)

Ghil, M., Allen, R.D., Dettinger, M.D., Ide, K., Kondrashov, D., Mann, M.E., Robertson, A.W., Saunders, A., Tian, Y., Varadi, F., and Yiou, P., 2002, Advanced spectral methods for climatic time series: Reviews of Geophysics, v. 40, no. 1, p. 3-1 - 3-41. (on-line abstract)

Knowles, N., and Cayan, D.R., 2002, Potential effects of global warming on the Sacramento/San Joaquin watershed and the San Francisco estuary: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 29, no. 18, p, 1-5. (on-line abstract)

Lundquist, J.D., and Cayan, D.R., 2002, Seasonal and spatial patterns in diurnal cycles in streamflow in the western United States: Journal of Hydrometeorology, v. 3, no. 5, p. 591-603. (on-line abstract)

McCabe, G.J., and Dettinger, M.D., 2002, Primary modes and predictability of year-to-year snowpack variations in the western United States from teleconnections with Pacific Ocean climate: Journal of Hydrometeorology, v. 3, p. 13-25. (on-line abstract or on-line pdf file)

McCabe, G.J., and Dettinger, M.D., 2002, Summary: Primary modes and predictability of year-to-year snowpack variations in the western United States from teleconnections with Pacific Ocean climate: Bulletin of the American Meterological Society, p. 176.

Naftz, D.L., Susong, D.D., Schuster, P.F., Cecil, L.D., Dettinger, M.D., Michel, R.L., and Kendall, C., 2002, Ice core evidence of rapid air temperature increases since 1960 in alpine areas of the Wind River Range, Wyoming, United States: Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 107, p. ACL 3-1 - ACL 3-15. (on-line abstract)

Peterson, D.H., Cayan, D.R., Smith, R.E., Dettinger, M.D., and Riddle, L., 2002, An experimental forecast of maximum daily snowmelt discharge for the year 2002: Scripps Institution of Oceanography (CAP) Califonia Applications Program (on-line publication)

Redmond, K.T., Stahle, D.W., Therrell,M.D.,Cayan, D.R., and Dettinger,M.D., 2002, 400 years of California Centtral Valley precipitationreconstructed from blue oaks, Proceedings, January 2002, 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations: American Meteorological Society, Orlando, FL, p. 20-23.

Schemel, L.E., 2002, Supporting data for hydrologic studies in San Francisco Bay, California: Meteorological measurements at the port of Redwood City during 1998-2001: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 02-231, 37 p. plus data files. (on-line abstract and to download pdf files)

Schemel, L.E., Cox, M.H., Hager, W.W., and Sommer, T.R., 2002, Hydrology and chemistry of flood waters in the Yolo Bypass, Sacramento River system, California, during 2000: U.S. Geological Survey Water Resources Investigations Report 02-4202, 65 p. (on-line abstract or on-line report in pdf format - 1 MB)

Uncles, R.J., Stephens, J.A., and Smith, R.E., 2002, The dependence of estuarine turbidity on tidal intrusion length, tidal range and residence time: Continental Shelf Research, v. 22, no. 11-13, p. 1835-1866. (on-line abstract)

U.S. Geological Survey (Dettinger, M.D., contributor), 2002 Concepts for national assessment of water availability and use: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1223, 34 p. (on-line report in html or pdf format)

Biondi, F., Gershunov, A., and Cayan, D.R., 2001, North Pacific decadal climate variability since 1661: Journal of Climate, v. 14, no. 1, p. 5-10. (on-line abstract)

Cayan, D.R., Dettinger, M.D., Caprio, J.M., Kammerdiener, S.A., and Peterson, D.H., 2001, Reply to "Comments on 'Changes in the onset of spring in the western United States'" by D. Lilly: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, v. 82, p. 2265-2266.

Cayan, D.R., Kammerdiener, S.A., Dettinger, M.D., Caprio, J.M., and Peterson, D.H., 2001, Changes in the onset of spring in the western United States: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, v. 82, p. 399-415.(on-line abstract or on line paper in pdf format, 1.06 MB, published by the American Meteorological Society withopen-access)

Dettinger,M.D., 2001, Droughts, epic droughts & droughty centuries--Lessons from California's paleoclimate record: Interagency Ecological Studies Program for the San Francisco Bay Estuary Newsletter, Summer 2001, p. 51-53.

Dettinger,M.D., Battisti, D.S., Garreaud, R.D., McCabe, G.J., and Bitz, C.M., 2001, Interhemispheric effects of interannual and decadal ENSO-like climate variations on the Americas, in Markgraf, V., ed., Interhemispheric climate linkages: Present and Past Climates in the Americas and Their Societal Effects: Academic Press, p. 1-16.

Nemani, R.R., White, M.A., Cayan, D.A., Jones, G.V., Running, S.W., Coughlan, J.C., and Peterson, D.L., 2001, Asymetric warming over coastal California and its impact on the premium wine industry: Climate Research, v. 19, p. 25-34. (on-line abstract)

Peterson, D.H., Cayan, D.R., Smith, R.E., Dettinger, M.D., and Riddle, L., 2001, An experimental forecast of maximum daily snomelt dischage for the year 2001: Scripps Institution of Oceanography (CAP) Califonia Applications Program (on-line publication)

Peterson, D.H., Cayan, D.R., Smith, R.E., Dettinger, M.D., and Riddle, L., 2001, Retrospective apprasal of the 2000 maximum flow forecasts: Scripps Institution of Oceanography (CAP) Califonia Applications Program.

Redmond, K.T., Stahle, S.W., Therrell, M.D., Cayan, D.r., and Dettinger, M.D., 2001, Spatial analysis of tree ring chronolgogies from California's blue oaks, in West, G.J., and Buggaloe, L.D., eds, Proceedings of the eighteenth Annual Pacific Climate (PACLIM) Workshops: Technical Report 69 of the Interagency Ecological Program for the San Francisco Bay Estuary.

Schemel, L.E., 2001, Simplified conversions between specific conductance and salinity units for use with data from monitoring stations: Interagency Ecological Program Newsletter, v. 14, no. 1, p. 17-18.

Sommer, T., Harrell, B., Nobriga, M., Brown, R., Moyle, P., Kimmerer, W., and Schemel, L., 2001, California’s Yolo Bypass: Evidence that flood control can be compatible with fisheries, wetlands, wildlife, and agriculture: Fisheries, v. 26, no. 8, p. 6-16

Stacey P.E., Greening, H., Kremer, J.N., Peterson, D., and Tomasko, D., 2001, Contributions of Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition to U.S. Estuaries: Summary and Conclusions, in Valigura, R.A., and others, eds., Nitrogen Loading in Coastal Water Bodies: An atmospheric perspective: American Geophysical Union, p. 187-226.

Stahle, D.W., Therrell, M.D., Cleaveland, M.K., Cayan, D.R., Dettinger, M.D., and Knowles, N., 2001, Ancient blue oaks reveal human impact on San Francisco Bay salinity: EOS Transactions American Geophysical Union, v. 82, p. 141, 144-145.

Topping, B.R., Kuwabara, J.S., Parchaso, F., Hager, S.W., Arnsberg, A.J., Murphy, F., 2001, Benthic Flux of Dissolved Nickel in the Water Column of South San Francisco Bay: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 01-089, 50 p. (abstract or to obtain pdf file)

Westerling, S.L., Cayan, D.R., Gershunov, A., Dettinger, M.D., and Brown, T., 2001, Statistical forecast of the 2001 western wildfire season using canonical correlation analysis: Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin, Center for Land-Ocean-Atmosphere Studies, v. 10, no. 1, p. 71-75. (on-line report)

White, W.B.,Cayan, D.R., Dettinger, M.D., and Auad, G., 2001, Sources of global warming in upper ocean temperature during El Nino: Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 106, no. C3, p. 4349-4367.

Dettinger, M.D., and Diaz, H.F., 2000, Global characteristics of streamflow seasonality and variability: Journal of Hydrometeorology, v. 1, no. 4, p. 289-310. (on-line abstract)

Dettinger, M.D., Cayan, D.R., and Brown, T.J., 2000, Interseasonal lightning variations in hte western United States: Proceedigns, 24th Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, Tucson, AS, Nov 5-9, 1999, p. 57-60.

Dettinger, M.D., Cayan, D.R., McCabe, G.J., and Marengo, J.A., 2000, Multiscale streamflow variability associated with El Nino/Southern Oscillation in Diaz, H.F., and Markgraf, V., eds., El Nino and the Southern Oscillation: New York, Cambridge University Press, p. 114-147. (on-line abstract)

Dettinger, M.D., Cayan, D.R., McCabe, G.J., Jr., and Redmond, K.R., 2000, Winter-spring 2001 United States streamflow probabilities based on anticipated neutral ENSO conditions and recent NPO status: Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin, v. 9, no. 3, p. 55-60. (on-line pdf file)

Gershunov, A., Barnett, T.P., Cayan, D.R., Tubbs, T., and Goddard, L., 2000, Predicting and downscaling ENSO impacts on intraseasonal precipitation statistics in California: The 1997/98 Event: Journal of Hydrometeorology, v. 1, no. 3, p. 201-210. (on-line abstract)

Grenz, C., Cloern, J.E., Hager, W.W., and Cole, B.E., 2000, Dynamics of nutrient cycling and related benthic nutrient and oxygen fluxes during a spring phytoplankton bloom in South San Franciso Bay (USA): Marine Ecology Progress Series 197, p. 67-80. (on-line abstract or on-line pdf file)

Pandey, G.R., Cayan, D.R., Dettinger, M.D., and Georgakakos, K.P., 2000, A hybrid model for interpolating daily precipitation in the Sierra Nevada of California during winter: Journal of Hydrometeorology, v. 1, no. 6, p. 491-506. (on-line abstract)

Peterson, D.H., Smith, R.E., Dettinger, M.D., Cayan, D.R., and Riddle, L., 2000, An organized signal in snowmelt runoff over the west: Journal of the American Water Resources Association, v. 36, no. 2, p. 421-432. (on-line abstract)

Wilby, R.L., and Dettinger, M.D., 2000, Streamflow changes in the Sierra Nevada, California, simulated using statistically downscaled general circulation model output, in McLaren, S., and Kniveton, D., eds., Linking Climate Change to Land Surface Change: Advances in Global Change Research, v. 6, Kluwer Academic Publishers, p. 99-121.

Biondi, F., Perkins, D.L., Cayan, D.R., and Hughes, M.K., 1999, July temperature during the second millennium reconstructed from Idaho tree rings: Geophys. Res, Ltrs, v. 26, no. 10, p. 1445-1448. (on-line abstract)

Cayan, D.R., Peterson, D.H., Riddle, L., Dettinger, M.D., and Smith, R., 1999, The Spring Runoff Pulse from the Sierra Nevada, 14th Conference on Hydrology American Meteorological Society, p. 77-79.

Cayan, D.R., Redmond, K.T, and Riddle, L.G., 1999, ENSO and hydrologic extremes in the Western United States: Journal of Climate, v. 12, p. 2881-2893. (on-line abstract or on-line pdf file)

Dettinger, M.D., Cayan, D.R., McCabe, G.M., and Marengo, J.A., 1999, Multiscale hydrologic variability associated with El Nino/Southern Oscillation: Chapter 5, in Diaz, H.F., and Markgraf, V., eds., El Nino--Multiscale Variability and Societal Impact: Cambridge University Press, p. 113-146.

Dettinger, M.D., Cayan, D.R., and Redmond, K.T., 1999, United States streamflow probabilities based on forecasted La Nina, Winter-Spring 2000: Experimental Long Lead Forecast, Bulletin, v. 8, no. 4. (on-line report)

Dettinger, M.D., Mo, K., Cayan, D.R., and Jeton, A.E., 1999, Global to local scale simulations of streamflow in the Merced, American, and Carson Rivers, Sierra Nevada, California: Preprints, American Meteorological Society's 14th Conference on Hydrology, Dallas, January 1999, p. 80-82.

Gershunov, A., Barnett, T.P., and Cayan, D.R., 1999, North Pacific interdecadal oscillation seen as a factor in ENSO-related North American climate anomalies: EOS, v. 80, no. 3, p. 26.

Gershunov, A., Barnett, T.P., and Cayan, D.R., 1999, Interference of ENSO and the North Pacific oscillation in producing North American climate anomalies. EOS, v. 80, no. 3, p. 29-30.

Pandy, G.R., Cayan, D.R., Dettinger, M.D., and Georgakakos, K.P., 1999, Downscaling of precipitation distributions within the Sierra Nevada from global atmospheric fields, 14th Conference on Hydrology: American Meteorological Society, p. 87-89.

Peterson, D.H., Smith, R.E., Dettinger, M.D., and Cayan, D.R., 1999,
Forecasting spring discharge in the West: A step towards forecasting stream chemistry, in Morganwalp, D.W., and Buxton, H.T., eds., U.S. Geological Survey Toxics Substances Hydrology Program--Proceedings of the Technical Meeting, Charleston, South Caroline, March 8-12, 1999-Volume 2--Contamination of Hydrologic Systems and Related Ecosystems: U.S. Geological Survey Water Resources Investigations Report 99-4018B, p 51-58. (on-line abstract)

Peterson, D.H., Smith, R.E., Dettinger, M.D., Cayan, D.R., and Riddle, L., 1999, An organized signal in snowmelt runoff over the west, in Adams, B.D., ed., Proceedings of a Speciality Conference on Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Changes to Water Resources of the United States: American Water Resources Association, p. 129-137.

Schemel, L.E., Hager, S.W., and Peterson, D.H., 1999, Reduced phosphate loading to South San Francisco Bay, California: Detection of effects in the water column, in Morganwalp, D.W., and Buxton, H.T., eds., U.S. Geological Survey Toxic Substances Hydrology Program--Proceedings of the Technical meeting in Charleston, S.C., March 8-12, 1998: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 99-4018B, p. 59-64. (on-line abstract)

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS PROJECT, CONTACT
David H. Peterson
U.S. Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Rd, MS496, Menlo Park, CA 94025
Email: dhpete@usgs.gov
Telephone: 650-329-4525

Daniel R. Cayan
Scripps Institute of Oceanography, Room 0224, La Jolla, CA 92093
Email: drcayon@usgs.gov
Telephone: 619-534-4507

Michael Dettinger
Scripps Institute of Oceanography, Room 0224, La Jolla, CA 92093
Email: mddettin@usgs.gov
Telephone: 858-822-1507

Steven W. Hostetler
104 Wilkenson Hall, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331
Email: swhostet@usgs.gov
Telephone: 541-737-8928

Fred Murphy
U.S. Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Rd, MS 496, Menlo Park, CA 94025
Email: fmurphy@usgs.gov
Telephone: 650-329-4696

For information on additional projects in the National Research Program, see Indexes to NRP projects and bibliographies