Paleohydrology and Climate Change

To anticipate the effects of potential climate change (natural or anthropogenic) on hydrology and to assess hydrologic trends will require an understanding of past long-term hydrologic variability. There also is a critical need for data on extreme floods for better understanding flood processes, in engineering hydrology, flood-hazard mitigation, and other disciplines requiring flood-risk assessments. Probably the best information on hydrologic variability and extreme floods is provided by paleohydrologic and other proxy data analyzed with the help of hydrologic models. Methods for extending existing climatic and hydrologic records over long-time scales are needed. A relatively new approach, one that complements hydrologic modeling efforts, involves the application of paleohydrology to determine regional scale hydrologic variability over relatively long-time intervals (100 to 10,000 years). Existing techniques for paleohydrologic reconstruction have large errors; hence, there is a critical need to improve paleohydrologic techniques. The primary goals of this project are to (1) improve techniques to reconstruct the fluvial history of river basins, particularly for extreme floods; (2) improve the understanding of hydrologic and hydraulic processes to improve numerical models of rivers; and (3) improve the understanding of links between climate and hydrology. These goals are closely related because the development and use of paleohydrologic techniques require an understanding of geomorphic response to climate change and an improved understanding of hydrologic and hydraulic processes.

REPORTS PUBLISHED 1999-2008

Jarrett, R.D., and Costa, J.E., 2006, 1976 Big Thompson Flood, Colorado--Thirty years later: U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 2006-3095, 6 p. (on-line fact sheet in pdf format, 6.4 MB)

Jarrett, R.D., and Vandas, S.J. (compilers), 2006, 1976 Big Thompson Flood, Colorado: U.S. Geological Survey General Information Product 35. (on-line summary and access to poster in pdf format)

Dohm, J.M., Ferris, J.C., Barlow, N.G., Baker, V.R., Mahaney, W.C., Anderson, R.C., and Hare, T.M., 2004, The northwestern slope valleys (NSVs) region, Mars: A prime candidate site for the future exploration of Mars: Planetary and Space Sciences, v. 52, p. 189-198. (on-line abstract)

Tomlinson, E.M., Jarrett, R.D., Parzybok, T.W., and Trieste, D.J., 2004, Reanalysis of Colorado extreme rainstorm using GIS, paleoflood, and rainfall-runoff: Journal of Dam Safety, v. 2, no. 4, p. 21-31.

England, J.F. Jr., Jarrett, R.D., Salas, J.D., 2003, Data-based comparisons of moments esti-mators using historical and paleoflood data: Journal of Hydrology, v. 278, p. 172-196. (on-line abstract)

England, J.F., Salas, J.D., and Jarrett, R.D., 2003, Comparisons of two moments-based estimators that utilize historical and paleoflood data for the log Pearson type III distribution: Water Resources Research, v. 39, no. 9, p. 1243 (on-line abstract)

Jarrett, R.D., and England, J.F., Jr., 2002, Reliability of paleostage indicators for paleoflood studies in House, P.K., Webb, R.H., Baker, V.R., and Levish, D.R., eds., Ancient floods, modern hazards, principles and applications of paleoflood hydrology: American Geophysical Union Water Science and Application Series, v. 5, p. 91-109.

Yanosky, T.M., and Jarrett, R.D., 2002, Dendrochronologic evidence for the frequency and magnitude of paleofloods in House, P.K., Webb, R.H., Baker, V.R., and Levish, D.R., eds., Ancient floods, modern hazards, principles and applications of paleoflood hydrology: American Geophysical Union Water Science and Application Series, v. 5, p. 77-89.

Webb, R.H., and Jarrett, R.D., 2002, One-dimensional estimation techniques for discharges of paleofloods and historical floods in House, P.K., Webb, R.H., Baker, V.R., and Levish, D.R., eds., Ancient floods, modern hazards, principles and applications of paleoflood hydrology: American Geophysical Union Water Science and Application Series, v. 5, p. 111-125.

Jarrett, Robert D., 2001, Paleohydrologic estimates of convective rainfall in the Rocky Mountains: Proceedings, Symposium on Precipitation Extremes: Prediction, Impacts, and Responses, 14-18 January 2001, Albuquerque, NM, American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA, p. J40-J43.

Sueker, J.K., Clow, D.W., Ryan, J.R., and Jarrett, R.D., 2001, Effect of basin physical characteristics on solute fluxes in nine alpine/subalpine basins, Colorado, USA: Hydrological Processes, v. 15, no, 14, p. 2749-2769. (on-line abstract)

Jarrett, R.D., and Tomlinson, E.M., 2000, Regional interdisciplinary paleoflood approach to assess extreme flood potential: Water Resources Research, v. 36, no. 10, p. 2957-2984. (on-line abstract)

Jarrett, R.D., 2000, Paleoflood investigations for Cherry Creek basin, Eastern Colorado: 2000 Joint Conference on Water Resources Engineering and Water Resources Planning and Management [Proceedings], Minneapolis, MN, Jul, 30 - August 2, 2000, Reston, VA, American Society of Civil Engineers, p. 1-10.

Parrett, C., and Jarrett, R.D., 2000, Flood hydrology for Dry Creek, Lake County, Northwestern Montana: 2000 Joint Conference on Water Resources Engineering and Water Resources Planning and Management [Proceedings], Minneapolis, MN, Jul, 30 - August 2, 2000, Reston, VA, American Society of Civil Engineers.

Parrett, C., and Jarrett, R.D., 2000, Flood hydrology for Dry Creek, Lake County, Northwestern Montana: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 00-4069, p. 1-12. (on-line abstract)

Sueker. I.K., Ryan. J.N., Kendall, C., Jarrett, R.D., 2000, Determination of hydrological pathways during snowmelt for alpine/subalpine basins, Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado: Water Resources Research, v. 36, p. 63-75. (on-line abstract)

Swain, R.E., and Jarrett, R.D., 2000, Monograph for using paleoflood data in water resources applications: 2000 Joint Conference on Water Resources Engineering and Water Resources Planning and Management [Proceedings], Minneapolis, MN, Jul, 30 - August 2, 2000, Reston, VA, American Society of Civil Engineers, p. 1-7.

National Research Council, 1999, Improving American river flood frequency analyses: Committee on American River Flood Frequencies , Water Science and Technology Board, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 120 p. (on-line publication)

Thompson, D.M., Wohl, E.E., and Jarrett, R.D., 1999, Velocity reversals and sediment sorting in pools and riffles controlled by channel constrictions: Geomorphology, v. 27, nos. 3-4, p. 229-241. (on-line abstract)

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS PROJECT, CONTACT:
Robert D. Jarrett
U.S. Geological Survey, P.O. Box 25046, MS412, Denver Federal Center, Lakewood, CO 80225-0046
Internet: rjarrett@usgs.gov
Telephone: 303-236-6447

For information on additional projects in the National Research Program, see Indexes to NRP projects and bibliographies