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Ethanol

Ethanol Market Penetration

Domestically produced ethanol has the potential to displace a significant amount of U.S. petroleum consumption. A joint U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)/U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) study found that 1.3 billion tons of biomass—predominantly cellulosic feedstocks—could be produced for biofuel production in the United States annually with only modest changes in farming practices (see the report PDF 2.8 MB). Download Adobe Reader. This quantity of feedstocks could be used to produce enough biofuels—mostly ethanol—to satisfy about one third of current U.S. petroleum demand. The potential could be even larger if technology is developed to take advantage of additional forms of biomass such as algae.

The potential of biomass-derived fuels is key to U.S. petroleum displacement goals. The Energy Policy Act of 2005 established a nationwide renewable fuels standard requiring use of 7.5 billion gallons of renewable fuel by 2012. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 boosted this renewable fuels standard substantially, requiring 36 billion gallons of annual renewable fuel use by 2022. Of this requirement, 21 billion gallons must be "advanced biofuels"—fuels that cut greenhouse gas emissions by at least 50%—including 16 billion gallons of cellulosic biofuels. Visit the Renewable Fuels Association Web site for more information about the Renewable Fuels Standard.

The DOE Biomass Program's goal is to displace 30% of U.S. gasoline use (based on year 2004 use) with renewable fuels by 2030. To learn more about Biomass Program goals, see the Biomass Multi-Year Program Plan (PDF 10 MB). Download Adobe Reader.

Ethanol primarily replaces gasoline as a fuel for passenger vehicles. The table below shows the penetration of ethanol, flexible-fuel vehicles (FFVs), and E85 stations into the gasoline market. As of 2007, about 3% of gasoline-vehicle fuel consumption—4.6 billion gasoline gallon equivalents (GGEs)—was attributed to ethanol, which was produced almost entirely from corn and consumed predominantly in the form of low-level blends.

Penetration of Ethanol, Flexible Fuel Vehicles,
and E85 Fueling Stations into the U.S. Market
  Year Total Ethanol, FFV, E85 Market penetration

Fuel consumption (million gasoline gallon equivalents)

 2007 136,9321 4,6432 3.4%

Passenger vehicles

 2006 234,524,7203 5,494,2584 2.3%

Stations

 2007 164,0005 1,2086 0.7%

1 Total motor gasoline consumption (including ethanol blended into motor gasoline) from EIA Annual Energy Review 2007, Table 5.13c (preliminary), converted to gasoline gallon equivalents
2 Ethanol consumption from EIA Annual Energy Review 2007, Table 10.3 (preliminary), converted to gasoline gallon equivalents; also see AFDC U.S. Total Production and Consumption of Ethanol (Excel 25 KB)
3 Registered passenger cars and other 2-axle 4-tire vehicles from Bureau of Transportation Statistics National Transportation Statistics 2008, Table 1-11
4 Flexible fuel vehicles from AFDC Light-Duty E85 FFVs in Use (Excel 22 KB)
5 Approximate public retail gasoline station count from National Petroleum News; also see AFDC Public Retail Gasoline Stations by State and Year (Excel 25 KB)
6 E85 stations from AFDC U.S. Alternative Fueling Stations by Fuel Type (Excel 28 KB)

The table above gives fuel, vehicle, and station characteristics for 2006 and 2007, the most recent years for which all the data are available. Ethanol, FFVs, and E85 stations have a higher market penetration today as their growth rates outpace the overall rates of growth in U.S. fuel consumption, passenger vehicles, and retail fueling stations (see graph below). Visit the DOE Biomass Program's Biofuels Data page for the latest values of several market penetration indicators.

Line graph showing change in ethanol and total fuel consumption, vehicles, and stations, 1999-2007. The y-axis is cumulative change, from -100% to 600%. The x-axis is year, from 1999 to 2007. The line for FFVs begins at about 200% in 1999 and rises to more than 500% in 2007. The line for E85 stations rises from about 10% to almost 500%. The line for ethanol consumption rises from about 0% to almost 200%. The lines for total passenger vehicles, total fuel consumption, and total retail stations all start around 0% and change very little from 1999 to 2007 (the passenger vehicles line stops at 2006); vehicles and fuel consumption increase very slightly while retail stations decrease slightly.

Sources: See table footnotes above

The AFDC's Data, Analysis & Trends section contains a wealth of information on the market penetration of ethanol and other alternative fuels, vehicles, and infrastructure. The following pages contain particularly useful ethanol-related information:

Also see the Energy Information Administration's Renewable & Alternative Fuels page for data related to ethanol and other alternative fuels. For more information about the potential of ethanol, see the AFDC's Benefits, Energy Balance, and Greenhouse Gas Emissions pages.