by Dr. James A. Fox, Dean
School of Criminal Justice
Northeastern University
This report discusses demographic trends and their impact on crime. It concludes that the growth in juvenile population in the next decade will cause a dramatic increase in the level of juvenile violence. This report, produced under a Bureau of Justice Statistics grant, is based on Dr. Fox's briefing of the Attorney General in 1995. An updated report with results through 1996 is now available.
Recent homicide data can be found in Homicide Trends in the United States.
1997 Update:
- Full update (text, tables, and graphic), Acrobat file (62K)
- Forecast of Teen Homicide Offenders, Graphic (GIF file)
- Data used in the tables and graphic, Spreadsheet (25K)
- State-by-State tables, 4 spreadsheets in zip format (26K)
Original report
Full report: text, tables, and graphics Acrobat file(127K) | Text and tables only Acrobat file (87K)
- Graphics (GIF files)
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- Fig 1. Four Measures of Violent Crime
- Fig 2. Urban Violent Crime Forecast from 1976 Model
- Fig 3. U.S. Homicide Rate and Percent of Population Ages 18-24
- Fig 4. Homicide Offending Rate by Age
- Fig 5a. Homicide Offending Rate by Age, White Male
- Fig 5b. Homicide Offending Rate by Age, Black Male
- Fig 6a. White Males, Ages 14-24 as Percent of Homicide Offenders, Victims and Population
- Fig 6b. Black Males, Ages 14-24 as Percent of Homicide Offenders, Victims and Population
- Fig 7a. Homicide Arrest Rates by Age (with percent change, 1989-94)
- Fig 7b. Violent Arrest Rates by Age (with percent change, 1989-94)
- Fig 8. Juvenile Homicides by Weapon
- Fig 9. Juvenile Homicides by Relationship
- Fig 10. Percent of Families with Children Under 18 Lacking Full-time Parental Supervision
- Fig 11. Time of Offending by Age of Offender
- Fig 12. Population Under Ten Years Old
- Fig 13. Population and Offenders, Age 14-17
- Fig 14a. Population and Offenders, White Male, Ages 14-17
- Fig 14b. Population and Offenders, Black Male, Ages 14-17
- Fig 15. Forecast of Homicide Offenders, Ages 14-17
Spreadsheet with the data for the graphics