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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Petroleum Products Demand Model Variable Definitions


Related Petroleum Products Demand Model Documentation


Variable NameUnitsDefinitionSource
HistoryForecast
AAFLFUSMilesAverage Passenger Flight LengthFAASTF
ACTKFUSINDXAverage ConsumerTicket PriceBLSSTF
CICPIUSINDXConsumer Price Index--1982-84=1BLSDRI
DFACPUSXMMBDDistillate fuel oil products supplied to the transportation sectorPSMSTF
DFCCPUSXMMBDDistillate fuel oil products supplied to the commercial sectorPSMSTF
DFICPUSXMMBDDistillate fuel oil products supplied to the industrial sectorPSMSTF
DFRCPUSXMMBDDistillate fuel oil products supplied to the residential sectorPSMSTF
DFTCPUSMMBDTotal distillate fuel oil products suppliedPSMSTF
DRVP90INT= 1 if 199005 LE DATE LE 199008, 0.5 if YEAR GE 1991
and 5 LE month LE 8; otherwise 0
DSTORMINT= 1 if 19900x LE DATE LE 19900x, 0 otherwise
DSRTUUSCPG= Retail diesel pricePMMSTF
DSTCPUSMMBD= Sales of No. 2 diesel fuel oil to company-owned outletsPMMSTF
D2RCPUSMMBD= Sales of No. 2 heating oil to residential customersPMMSTF
D2WHUUSACPG= Wholesale diesel pricePMMSTF
D2WHUUSCPGWholesale price of no. 2 heating oilPMMSTF
D8302INT= 1 if February 1983, 0 otherwise
D8412INT= 1 if December 1984, 0 otherwise
D8501INT= 1 if January 1985, 0 otherwise
D8912INT= 1 if December 1989, 0 otherwise
D8901ONINT= 1 if December 1989 or later, 0 otherwise
D9101ONINT= 1 if January 1991 or later, 0 otherwise
D9401INT= 1 if January 1994, 0 otherwise
D9412INT= 1 if December 1994, 0 otherwise
D9501ONINT= 1 if 1995 or later, 0 otherwise
ETTCPUSMMBDDemand for ethanePSMSTF
ETTCPUSAMMBDETTCPUS--Seasonally Adjusted
JFTCPUSMMBDTotal jet fuel products suppliedPSMSTF
JKTCUUSCPGPrice of kerosene-based jet fuelPMMSTF
LGTCPUSMMBDLiquefied Petroleum Gases Product SuppliedPSMSTF
LXTCPUSMMBDLPG's Except Ethane Product SuppliedPSMSTF
LXTCPUSAMMBDLXTCPUS Seasonally-Adjisted
MGROPUSMMBDRefinery output of motor gasolinePSMSTF
MGEIAUSCPGRetail price of regular motor gasolinePMMSTF
MGTCPUSMMBDMotor Gasoline Product SuppliedPSMSTF
MPGFRACMiles Per Gallon, MVVMPUS/MGTCPUS/42
NGEUDUSA$/MMBTUPrice of natural gas deliveries to electric utilitiesNGMSTF
NGINPUSBCFDActual natural gas deliveries to the industrial sectorNGMSTF
NGINPUSXBCFDNotional unconstrained natural gas demand by the industrial sector--
NGNUKUSFRACMBTU/CF
RFACPUSXMMBDResidual Fuel Oil Deliveries to the Transportation SectorPSM STF
RFCCPUSXMMBDResidual Fuel Oil Deliveries to the Commercial SectorPSM STF
RFICPUSXMMBDResidual Fuel Oil Deliveries to the Indistrial SectorPSM STF
RFNUPUXMMBDTotal Non-Utility Residual Fuel Oil DeliveriesPSM STF
RFTCUUSCPGRetail Price for Residual Fuel Oil PMM STF
RFTZUUSMMBTU/GAL RFNUPUSX Thermal Content MER
RMZZPUSMillion Miles Per DayRevenue ton-milesFAA STF
RMZTPUSMillion Miles Per DayAvailable ton-milesFAA STF
TIMEINTIntegers 1 to n, where n = number of observations
WPCPIUSINDXProducer price index, 1982 = 1.00BLSDRI
YD87OUS$ BNReal Personal Disposable Income - 1992 $BLSDRI
ZOTOIUSINDXIndex of Total Manufacturing: 1992=1BLSDRI
ZO28IUSINDXIndex of Total Manufacturing: 1992=1BLSDRI
ZWHDDNO0HDDHeating degree-days, deviation from normal, Northeast:
October Through March
NOAROT
ZWHDDUSHDDHeating degree-days, deviation from normal, United StatesNOAROT
ZSAJQUSINTNumber of days in month
Units Key
$/MMBTUDollars per million British Thermal Units (BTUs)
BCFDBillion cubic feet per day
CPGCents per gallon
FRACFraction
HDDHeating-degree days
INDXIndex
INTPositive Integer
MMBMillion barrels
MMBDMillion barrels per day
MMBTU/GALMillion British Themal Units (BTUs) per gallon
Source Key
BLSBureau of Labor Statistics, Monthly Labor Review
DRIDRI/McGraw-Hill Macroeconomic Forecast
NGMEnergy Information Administration, Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130
NOANational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Monthly State, Regional and National
Heating/Cooling Degree-Days Weighted by Population
OOGEnergy Information Administration, Office of Oil and Gas
PMMEnergy Information Administration, Petroleum Marketing Monthly, DOE/EIA-0380
PSMEnergy Information Administration, Petrleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109
ROT"Rule of Thumb" - in the forecast, these variables are assumed to remain constant, equal to the last
available historical data. For heating degree-days, the forecasts assume a 30-year normal (1951-1981).
SPOU.S. Department of Energy, Office of Strategic Petroleum Reserve
STFShort-Term Integrated Forecasting System calculation


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