Short-Term Energy Outlook Petroleum Products Supply Model Regression Results

Table

1. CORIPUSX - Refinery Inputs Crude Oil
2. UORIPUSX - Refinery Inputs Unfinished Oils
3. CODIPUSX - Total Inputs to Atmospheric Crude Distillation Units
4. LGRIPUS - Refinery Inputs Liquefied Petroleum Gas
5. PPRIPUS - Refinery Inputs Pentanes Plus
6. MBRIPUS - Refinery Inputs Motor Gasoline Blend Components
7. OXRIPUS - Refinery Inputs Oxygenates
8. MGROPUSX - Refinery Output Motor Gasoline
9. DFROPUSX - Refinery Output Distillate Fuel
10. JFROPUSX - Refinery Output Jet Fuel
11. RFROPUSX - Refinery Output Residual Fuel
12. LGROPUSX - Refinery Output Liquefied Petroleum Gas
13. PSROPUSX - Refinery Output "Other" Petroleum Products
14. PAGLPUS - Refinery Processing Gain
15. NLPRPUS - Field Production Natural Gas Liquids
16. PPFPPUS - Field Production Pentanes Plus
17. OHRIPUS - Field Production Other Hydrocarbons/Oxygenates
18. MBFPPUSX - Field Production Motor Gasoline Blend Components
19. PPPSPUS - Inventories of Pentanes Plus
20. PRPSPUS - Inventories of Propane

Related Petroleum Products Supply Model Documentation

• Petroleum Products Supply Model Description
• Petroleum Products Supply Model Variable Definitions

Table 1. Refinery Inputs Crude Oil, CORIPUSX (million barrels per day)
Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
CORIPUSX	22	90	3.6032	0.0400	0.2001	0.937	0.922	1.92
Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.		'T' Ratio	Label
COR_B0	8.2496	1.5229		5.42	Constant Coefficient
COR_PSRI	-0.2595	0.2885		-0.90	PSRIPUS, refinery inputs other oil
COR_UORI	-0.6983	0.1752		-3.99	UORIPUS, refinery inputs unfinished oils
COR_LGRI	-1.5669	0.5937		-2.64	(LGRIPUS - LGROPUS), net refinery inputs LPGs
COR_PATC	0.1323	0.0525		2.52	PATCPUSX, total petroleum product demand
COR_PAT1	0.2243	0.0574		3.91	LAG(PATCPUSX), one-month lag total petroleum product demand
COR_MGPS	-7E-05	0.0066		-0.01	LAG(MGPSPUSA), beginning-of-month stocks motor gasoline
COR_MGP1	-0.0121	0.0058		-2.10	LAG2(MGPSPUSA), one-month lag beginning-of-month stocks motor gasoline
COR_DFPS	0.0124	0.0059		2.09	LAG(DFPSPUSA), beginning-of-month stocks distillate fuel
COR_DFP1	-0.00393	0.0065		-0.60	LAG2(DFPSPUSA), one-month lag beginning-of-month stocks distillate fuel
CORI_E2	-0.1752	0.1054		-1.66	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
CORI_E3	-0.2996	0.2173		-1.38	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
CORI_E4	0.1110	0.2989		0.37	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
CORI_E5	0.4987	0.3099		1.61	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
CORI_E6	0.6797	0.3046		2.23	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
CORI_E7	0.5064	0.2870		1.76	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
CORI_E8	0.4322	0.2800		1.54	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
CORI_E9	0.5755	0.1788		3.22	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
CORI_E10	0.3614	0.1222		2.96	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
CORI_E11	0.6614	0.1051		6.29	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
CORI_E12	0.7141	0.1102		6.48	DEC = 1 if December, 0 otherwise
CORIPUSX_L1	0.4312	0.1190		3.62	1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction Estimation period: January 1991 through April 2000

Table 2. Refinery Inputs Unfinished Oils, UORIPUSX (million barrels per day)
Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
UORIPUSX	16	168	2.3046	0.0137	0.1171	0.592	0.555	1.94
Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.		'T' Ratio	Label
UORI_B0	0.2963	0.0955		3.10	Constant Coefficient
UORI_T	0.00248	0.0005		4.97	TIME = 1 to n, where n = number of observation
UORI_D9497	-0.00112	0.00019		-5.85	D9497 = 1 * TIME if Jan. 1994 through Dec. 1997 , 0 otherwise
UORI_D98ON	-0.3753	0.0676		-5.55	D94ON = 1 if January 1998 or later, 0 otherwise
UORI_E1	-0.2821	0.0370		-7.62	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
UORI_E2	-0.3294	0.0423		-7.79	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
UORI_E3	-0.3758	0.0437		-8.60	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
UORI_E4	-0.2002	0.0441		-4.54	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
UORI_E5	-0.1867	0.0448		-4.17	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
UORI_E6	-0.1167	0.0448		-2.60	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
UORI_E7	-0.0765	0.0448		-1.71	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
UORI_E8	-0.1252	0.0447		-2.80	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
UORI_E9	-0.1530	0.0442		-3.45	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
UORI_E10	-0.2073	0.0428		-4.85	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
UORI_E11	-0.1532	0.0375		-4.08	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
UORIPUSX_L1	0.2979	0.0738		4.04	1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction Estimation period: January 1985 through April 2000

Table 3. Total Inputs to Atmospheric Distillation Units, CODIPUSX (million barrels per day)
Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
CODIPUSX	3	177	0.4558	0.00257	0.0507	0.997	0.997	2.08
Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.		'T' Ratio	Label
CODI_UO	0.0215	0.0245		0.88	UORIPUS, refinery inputs unfinished oils
CODI_CO	1.0122	0.0011		945.4	CORIPUS, refinery inputs crude oil
CODIPUSX_L1	0.4819	0.0672		7.18	1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction Estimation period: January 1984 through December 1998

Table 4. Refinery Inputs Liquefied Petroleum Gas, LGRIPUS (million barrels per day)
Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
LGRIPUS	20	181	0.0603	0.000333	0.0182	0.944	0.939	1.68
Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.		'T' Ratio	Label
LGRI_B0	0.1188	0.0622		1.91	Constant Coefficient
LGRI_MG	0.0418	0.00898		4.66	MGROPUS, refinery output motor gasoline
LGRI_R1	-0.0175	0.0128		-1.36	RVPI = 1 if April-August, 1989-1991, 0 otherwise
LGRI_R1W	-0.00857	0.0127		-0.67	RVPIW = 1 if September 1989 - March 1992 and RVPI=0, 0 otherwise
LGRI_R2	-0.0207	0.0142		-1.45	RVPII = 1 if April-August, 1992-1994, 0 otherwise
LGRI_R2W	-0.0206	0.0143		-1.44	RVPIIW = 1 if September 1992 - March 1995 and RVPII=0, 0 otherwise
LGRI_R3	-0.0827	0.0154		-5.36	RVPIII = 1 if April-August, 1995 and later, 0 otherise
LGRI_R3W	-0.0639	0.0153		-4.19	RVPIIIW = 1 if September 1995 or later and RVPIII=0, 0 otherwise
LGRI_E1	-0.0141	0.00571		-2.48	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
LGRI_E2	-0.0619	0.00754		-8.21	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
LGRI_E3	-0.1301	0.00847		-15.4	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
LGRI_E4	-0.1498	0.00914		-16.4	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
LGRI_E5	-0.1573	0.00916		-17.2	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
LGRI_E6	-0.1667	0.00927		-18.0	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
LGRI_E7	-0.1682	0.00919		-18.3	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
LGRI_E8	-0.1588	0.00895		-17.7	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
LGRI_E9	-0.1210	0.00724		-16.7	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
LGRI_E10	-0.0611	0.00679		-9.00	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
LGRI_E11	-0.00227	0.00487		-0.47	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
LGRIPUS_L1	0.7410	0.0525		14.1	1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction Estimation period: January 1983 through September 1999

Table 5. Refinery Inputs Pentanes Plus, PPRIPUS (million barrels per day)
Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
PPRIPUS	15	97	0.00613	6.3E-05	0.00795	0.821	0.795	1.94
Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.		'T' Ratio	Label
PPRI_B0	-0.1668	0.0431		-3.87	Constant Coefficient
PPRI_MG	0.0223	0.00440		5.07	MGROPUS, refinery output motor gasoline
PPRI_DP	7.7644	0.6207		12.5	DUMYRPP, annual average PPRIPUS / refinery output motor gasoline
PPRI_E2	-0.00020	0.00325		-0.06	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
PPRI_E3	-0.00331	0.00362		-0.91	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
PPRI_E4	-0.0168	0.00372		-4.53	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
PPRI_E5	-0.0130	0.00409		-3.18	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
PPRI_E6	-0.00712	0.00430		-1.66	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
PPRI_E7	-0.0112	0.00417		-2.69	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
PPRI_E8	-0.0050	0.00405		-1.23	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
PPRI_E9	-0.00202	0.00406		-0.50	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
PPRI_E10	-0.00080	0.00389		-0.21	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
PPRI_E11	-0.00568	0.00415		-1.37	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
PPRI_E12	-0.0168	0.00408		-4.10	DEC = 1 if December, 0 otherwise
PPRIPUS_L1	0.2489	0.0994		2.51	1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction Estimation period: January 1991 through April 2000

Table 6. Refinery Inputs Motor Gasoline Blend Components, MBRIPUS (million barrels per day)
Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
MBRIPUS	15	109	0.4238	0.00389	0.0624	0.610	0.560	2.19
Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.		'T' Ratio	Label
MBRI_BO	-0.0548	0.0225		-2.43	Constant Coefficient
MBRI_MB	0.1249	0.1093		1.14	MBFPPUSX, field production motor gasoline blend components
MBRI_DY	0.1146	0.0281		4.08	DY9697 = 1 if February 1996 through August 1997
MBRI_E2	0.0633	0.0220		2.88	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
MBRI_E3	0.1237	0.0268		4.61	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
MBRI_E4	0.1553	0.0291		5.34	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
MBRI_E5	0.1040	0.0307		3.39	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
MBRI_E6	0.1138	0.0317		3.59	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
MBRI_E7	0.0940	0.0316		2.98	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
MBRI_E8	0.1003	0.0313		3.20	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
MBRI_E9	-0.00093	0.0306		-0.03	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
MBRI_E10	0.1037	0.0295		3.52	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
MBRI_E11	0.0718	0.0273		2.63	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
MBRI_E12	0.0641	0.0223		2.87	DEC = 1 if December, 0 otherwise
MBRIPUS_L1	0.4960	0.0821		6.04	1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction Estimation period: January 1990 through April 2000

Table 7. Refinery Inputs Oxygenates, OXRIPUS (million barrels per day)
Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
OXRIPUS	14	86	0.0893	0.00104	0.0322	0.901	0.886	1.87
Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.		'T' Ratio	Label
OXRI_B0	0.0417	0.0141		2.95	Constant Coefficient
OXRI_MT	0.9908	0.0583		17.0	MTTCPUS, demand for MTBE
OXRI_EO	1.8749	0.2419		7.75	(EOPRPUS-EOFPPUS), fuel ethanol blended at refineries and bulk terminals
OXRI_E2	-0.00504	0.0152		-0.33	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
OXRI_E3	-0.0133	0.0152		-0.88	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
OXRI_E4	-0.0218	0.0153		-1.42	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
OXRI_E5	-0.0224	0.0157		-1.43	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
OXRI_E6	-0.00266	0.0157		-0.17	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
OXRI_E7	-0.0135	0.0157		-0.86	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
OXRI_E8	-0.0129	0.0157		-0.82	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
OXRI_E9	-0.0311	0.0158		-1.96	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
OXRI_E10	-0.00101	0.0162		-0.06	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
OXRI_E11	0.00493	0.0164		0.30	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
OXRI_E12	0.00428	0.0163		0.26	DEC = 1 if December, 0 otherwise
Method of estimation: OLS Estimation period: January 1992 through April 2000

Table 8. Refinery Output Motor Gasoline, MGROPUSX (million barrels per day)
Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
MGROPUSX	21	180	0.7560	0.0042	0.0648	0.986	0.985	1.93
Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.		'T' Ratio	Label
MGRO_B0	1.2062	0.2870		4.20	Constant Coefficient
MGRO_C1	0.4123	0.0187		22.0	CORIPUS, refinery inputs crude oil
MGRO_C2	0.5135	0.0383		13.4	UORIPUS, refinery inputs unfinished oils
MGRO_C3	0.6514	0.0794		8.20	MBRIPUS, refinery inputs motor gasoline blend components
MGRO_C4	1.6286	0.1529		10.6	OXRIPUS, refinery inputs oxygenates
MGRO_C5	0.7626	0.1021		7.47	LGRIPUS - LGROPUS, net refinery inputs LPGs
MGRO_C6	0.7201	0.4143		1.74	PPRIPUS, refinery inputs pentanes plus
MGRO_PR	0.0150	0.00223		6.74	(MGWHUUSX-D2WHUUS)/WPCPIUS, gasoline - distillate deflated price differenc
MGRO_PS	-0.1631	0.0827		-1.97	LAG(MGPSPUSA/DFPSPUSA), ratio gasoline/distillate beginning-of-month deseasonalized stocks
MGRO_E1	-0.0273	0.0242		-1.12	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
MGRO_E2	-0.0374	0.0324		-1.16	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
MGRO_E3	-0.0283	0.0448		-0.63	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
MGRO_E4	0.0526	0.0483		1.09	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
MGRO_E5	0.0530	0.0495		1.07	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
MGRO_E6	0.0446	0.0502		0.89	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
MGRO_E7	0.0417	0.0494		0.84	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
MGRO_E8	0.0161	0.0475		0.34	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
MGRO_E9	-0.0109	0.0369		-0.30	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
MGRO_E10	-0.0958	0.0289		-3.31	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
MGRO_E11	-0.0410	0.0198		-2.07	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
MGROPUSX_L1	0.6293	0.0628		10.0	1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction Estimation period: January 1983 through September 1999

Table 9. Refinery Output Distillate Fuel Oil, DFROPUSX (million barrels per day)
Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
DFROPUSX	18	183	0.929	0.00508	0.0712	0.955	0.950	1.92
Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.		'T' Ratio	Label
DFRO_B0	-0.8717	0.2421		-3.60	Constant Coefficient
DFRO_C1	0.2823	0.0132		21.4	CORIPUS, refinery inputs crude oil
DFRO_C2	0.2082	0.0405		5.14	UORIPUS, refinery inputs unfinished oils
DFRO_C3	0.2985	0.0725		4.12	PSRIPUS, refinery inputs other oil
DFRO_PR	-0.0149	0.00240		-6.21	(MGWHUUSX-D2WHUUS)/WPCPIUS, gasoline - distillate deflated price difference
DFRO_PS	0.0706	0.0829		0.85	LAG(MGPSPUSA/DFPSPUSA), ratio gasoline/distillate beginning-of-month deseasonalized stocks
DFRO_E1	-0.0630	0.0235		-2.68	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
DFRO_E2	-0.1040	0.0288		-3.61	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
DFRO_E3	-0.1300	0.0331		-3.92	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
DFRO_E4	-0.1224	0.0343		-3.57	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
DFRO_E5	-0.0942	0.0376		-2.50	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
DFRO_E6	-0.1385	0.0393		-3.53	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
DFRO_E7	-0.1621	0.0376		-4.31	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
DFRO_E8	-0.1605	0.0355		-4.52	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
DFRO_E9	-0.1158	0.0314		-3.69	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
DFRO_E10	-0.0150	0.0274		-0.55	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
DFRO_E11	0.0276	0.0208		1.33	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
DFROPUSX_L1	0.6228	0.0632		9.86	1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction Estimation period: January 1983 through September 1999

Table 10. Refinery Output Jet Fuel, JFROPUSX (million barrels per day)
Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
JFROPUSX	21	180	0.3466	0.00193	0.0439	0.931	0.923	2.19
Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.		'T' Ratio	Label
JFRO_B0	-0.00336	0.2195		-0.02	Constant Coefficient
JFRO_C1	0.1128	0.0138		8.19	CORIPUS, refinery inputs crude oil
JFRO_C2	0.0302	0.0244		1.23	UORIPUS, refinery inputs unfinished oils
JFRO_P1	-0.00616	0.00146		-4.21	(MGWHUUSX-JKTCUUS)/WPCPIUS, gasoline - jet fuel deflated price difference
JFRO_P2	-0.00501	0.00154		-3.26	(D2WHUUS-JKTCUUS)/WPCPIUS, distillate - jet fuel deflated price difference
JFRO_PS	-0.00574	0.00218		-2.63	LAG(JFPSPUSA), beginning-of-month deseasonalized jet fuel stocks
JFRO_Z	-0.00200	0.00154		-1.30	ZWHDDUS/ZSAJQUS, heating degree-days deviation from normal, per day
JFRO_D1	-0.00021	0.000211		-1.00	D9101ON * TIME = 1 * TIME if Jauary 1991 or later, 0 otherwis
JFRO_T	0.000921	0.000554		1.66	TIME = 1 to n, where n = number of observation
JFRO_E1	0.0190	0.0145		1.31	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
JFRO_E2	0.00608	0.0189		0.32	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
JFRO_E3	-0.0103	0.0211		-0.49	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
JFRO_E4	-0.0584	0.0212		-2.76	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
JFRO_E5	-0.0764	0.0236		-3.24	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
JFRO_E6	-0.0692	0.0246		-2.81	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
JFRO_E7	-0.0539	0.0237		-2.27	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
JFRO_E8	-0.0448	0.0223		-2.01	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
JFRO_E9	-0.0384	0.0193		-2.00	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
JFRO_E10	-0.0204	0.0164		-1.24	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
JFRO_E11	-0.0151	0.0120		-1.25	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
JFROPUSX_L1	0.8121	0.0434		18.7	1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction Estimation period: January 1983 through September 1999

Table 11. Refinery Output Residual Fuel, RFROPUSX (million barrels per day)
Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
RFROPUSX	17	184	0.4016	0.00218	0.0467	0.815	0.798	1.91
Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.		'T' Ratio	Label
RFRO_B0	0.2803	0.1797		1.56	Constant Coefficient
RFRO_C1	0.0868	0.0139		6.27	CORIPUS, refinery inputs crude oil
RFRO_C2	0.1261	0.0266		4.74	UORIPUS, refinery inputs unfinished oils
RFRO_PS	-0.00203	0.0015		-1.35	LAG(RFPSPUSA), beginning-of-month deseasonalized residual fuel stocks
RFRO_T	-0.00246	0.000301		-8.17	TIME = 1 to n, where n = number of observation
RFRO_E1	0.0243	0.0152		1.60	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
RFRO_E2	0.0144	0.0195		0.74	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
RFRO_E3	-0.0150	0.0217		-0.69	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
RFRO_E4	-0.0742	0.0203		-3.66	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
RFRO_E5	-0.1147	0.0211		-5.43	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
RFRO_E6	-0.1655	0.0218		-7.59	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
RFRO_E7	-0.1781	0.0215		-8.27	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
RFRO_E8	-0.1630	0.0210		-7.76	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
RFRO_E9	-0.1471	0.0194		-7.57	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
RFRO_E10	-0.1007	0.0173		-5.83	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
RFRO_E11	-0.0669	0.0129		-5.20	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
RFROPUSX_L1	0.7270	0.0533		13.6	1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction Estimation period: January 1983 through September 1999

Table 12. Refinery Output Liquefied Petroleum Gas, LGROPUSX (million barrels per day)
Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
LGROPUSX	18	82	0.0385	0.00047	0.0217	0.981	0.977	2.00
Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.		'T' Ratio	Label
LGRO_B0	0.1111	0.2454		0.45	Constant Coefficient
LGRO_MG	-0.4587	0.4249		-1.08	MGYLD, refinery motor gasoline yield
LGRO_C1	0.0382	0.00882		4.33	CORIPUS, refinery inputs crude oil
LGRO_C2	0.0571	0.0211		2.71	UORIPUS, refinery inputs unfinished oils
LGRO_R3	0.0659	0.0129		5.10	RVPIII = 1 if April-August, 1995 and later, 0 otherwise
LGRO_R3W	0.0305	0.0115		2.66	RVPIIIW = 1 if September 1995 or later and RVPIII=0, 0 otherwise
LGRO_E1	0.0286	0.0126		2.27	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
LGRO_E2	0.0767	0.0149		5.16	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
LGRO_E3	0.2061	0.0152		13.6	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
LGRO_E4	0.2775	0.0148		18.8	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
LGRO_E5	0.2729	0.0147		18.6	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
LGRO_E6	0.2630	0.0149		17.6	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
LGRO_E7	0.2573	0.0150		17.2	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
LGRO_E8	0.2502	0.0152		16.5	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
LGRO_E9	0.1376	0.0122		11.2	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
LGRO_E10	0.0529	0.0121		4.37	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
LGRO_E11	-0.0223	0.00962		-2.32	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
LGROPUSX_L1	0.4229	0.1012		4.18	1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction Estimation period: January 1992 through April 2000

Table 13. Refinery Output "Other" Petroleum Products, PSROPUSX (million barrels per day)
Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
PSROPUSX	16	185	0.3677	0.00199	0.0446	0.967	0.964	2.08
Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.		'T' Ratio	Label
PSRO_B0	-0.0268	0.1003		-0.27	Constant Coefficient
PSRO_C1	0.1416	0.0101		14.1	CORIPUS, refinery inputs crude oil
PSRO_C2	0.1095	0.0256		4.27	UORIPUS, refinery inputs unfinished oils
PSRO_TC	0.1581	0.0361		4.38	PSTCPUS, demand for "other" petroleum products
PSRO_E1	0.0224	0.0145		1.54	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
PSRO_E2	0.0738	0.0182		4.05	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
PSRO_E3	0.0877	0.0208		4.21	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
PSRO_E4	0.1046	0.0199		5.26	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
PSRO_E5	0.1270	0.0213		5.95	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
PSRO_E6	0.1845	0.0238		7.76	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
PSRO_E7	0.2044	0.0242		8.46	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
PSRO_E8	0.2111	0.0256		8.25	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
PSRO_E9	0.1968	0.0231		8.51	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
PSRO_E10	0.1211	0.0217		5.58	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
PSRO_E11	0.0556	0.0140		3.97	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
PSROPUSX_L1	0.5945	0.0602		9.87	1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction Estimation period: January 1983 through September 1999

Table 14. Refinery Processing Gain, PAGLPUS (million barrels)
Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
PAGLPUS	4	120	0.2215	0.00185	0.043	0.737	0.730	2.55
Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.		'T' Ratio	Label
PAGL_B0	0.0723	0.1484		0.49	Constant Coefficient
PAGL_CO	0.0497	0.0105		4.72	CORIPUS, refinery inputs crude oil
PAGL_UO	0.0664	0.0236		2.82	UORIPUS, refinery inputs unfinished oils
PAGLPUS_L1	0.7544	0.0607		12.4	1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction Estimation period: January 1990 through April 2000

Table 15. Field Production Natural Gas Liquids, NLPRPUS (million barrels per day)
Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
NLPRPUS	16	185	0.2761	0.00149	0.0386	0.889	0.881	2.15
Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.		'T' Ratio	Label
NLPR_B0	1.1350	0.1327		8.55	Constant Coefficient
NLPR_NG	0.0102	0.00239		4.28	NGMPPUS, field production wet natural gas
NLPR_ZW	-0.00405	0.00135		-3.00	ZWHDDUS/ZSAJQUS, heating degree-days deviation from normal, per day
NLPR_D1	-0.0878	0.0336		-2.61	D8912 = 1 if December 1989, 0 otherwise
NLPR_E1	-0.00884	0.00988		-0.89	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
NLPR_E2	0.0197	0.0127		1.55	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
NLPR_E3	0.0388	0.0150		2.59	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
NLPR_E4	0.0390	0.0168		2.33	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
NLPR_E5	0.0365	0.0181		2.01	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
NLPR_E6	0.0280	0.0187		1.50	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
NLPR_E7	0.0273	0.019		1.44	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
NLPR_E8	0.0345	0.0185		1.86	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
NLPR_E9	0.0490	0.0179		2.74	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
NLPR_E10	0.0559	0.0149		3.75	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
NLPR_E11	0.0516	0.0101		5.09	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
NLPRPUS_l1	0.9181	0.0319		28.8	1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction Estimation period: January 1983 through September 1999

Table 16. Field Production Pentanes Plus, PPFPPUS (million barrels per day)
Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
PPFPPUS	12	100	0.00311	3.1E-05	0.00558	0.895	0.884	2.48
Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.		'T' Ratio	Label
PPFP_E1	-0.0014	0.00173		-0.81	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
PPFP_E2	-0.00223	0.00234		-0.95	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
PPFP_E3	-0.00085	0.00273		-0.31	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
PPFP_E4	0.00184	0.00299		0.61	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
PPFP_E5	0.00938	0.00315		2.97	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
PPFP_E6	0.0167	0.00322		5.18	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
PPFP_E7	0.0225	0.00318		7.06	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
PPFP_E8	0.0230	0.00306		7.51	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
PPFP_E9	0.0182	0.00282		6.47	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
PPFP_E10	0.0104	0.00243		4.28	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
PPFP_E11	0.00233	0.00181		1.29	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
PPFPPUS_L1	0.9604	0.0355		27.1	1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction Estimation period: January 1991 through April 2000

Table 17. Field Production Other Hydrocarbons/Oxygenates, OHRIPUS (million barrels per day)
Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
OHRIPUS	15	85	0.0881	0.00104	0.0322	0.868	0.846	1.97
Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.		'T' Ratio	Label
OHRI_B0	-0.00833	0.0221		-0.38	Constant Coefficient
OHRI_MT	1.3326	0.1316		10.1	MTPRPUS, field production MTBE
OHRI_EO	1.4412	0.3211		4.49	(EOPRPUS-EOFPPUS), fuel ethanol blended at refineries and bulk terminals
OHRI_D9301	0.3218	0.0344		9.36	D9301 = 1 if January 1993, 0 otherwise
OHRI_E1	0.00645	0.0167		0.39	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
OHRI_E2	0.00081	0.0163		0.05	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
OHRI_E3	-0.0114	0.0161		-0.71	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
OHRI_E4	-0.0181	0.0158		-1.14	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
OHRI_E5	-0.0158	0.0165		-0.96	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
OHRI_E6	-0.0112	0.0161		-0.69	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
OHRI_E7	-0.0100	0.0161		-0.62	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
OHRI_E8	-0.0117	0.0163		-0.72	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
OHRI_E9	-0.0220	0.0163		-1.35	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
OHRI_E10	-0.0059	0.0161		-0.37	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
OHRI_E11	-0.00059	0.0161		-0.04	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
Method of estimation: OLS Estimation period: January 1992 through April 2000

Table 18. Field Production Motor Gasoline Blend Components, MBFPPUSX (million barrels per day)
Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
MBFPPUSX	14	98	0.2194	0.00224	0.0473	0.584	0.529	1.99
Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.		'T' Ratio	Label
MBFP_B0	0.2903	0.0479		6.06	Constant Coefficient
MBFP_T	-0.00148	0.00018		-8.26	TIME = 1 to n, where n = number of observation
MBFP_E1	0.0351	0.0195		1.8	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
MBFP_E2	0.0488	0.0217		2.25	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
MBFP_E3	0.0385	0.0222		1.74	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
MBFP_E4	0.0152	0.0223		0.68	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
MBFP_E5	0.01442	0.0229		0.63	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
MBFP_E6	-0.0156	0.0229		-0.68	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
MBFP_E7	-0.00363	0.0229		-0.16	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
MBFP_E8	0.00233	0.0229		0.10	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
MBFP_E9	0.00643	0.0228		0.28	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
MBFP_E10	0.02779	0.0223		1.25	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
MBFP_E11	0.00880	0.0202		0.44	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
MBFPPUSX_l1	0.2250	0.0984		2.29	1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction Estimation period: January 1991 through April 2000

Table 19. Inventories of Pentanes Plus, PPPSPUS (million barrels)
Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
PPPSPUS	13	167	81.9044	0.4904	0.7003	0.797	0.782	1.32
Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.		'T' Ratio	Label
PPPS_B0	7.6155	0.2808		27.1	Constant Coefficient
PPPS_E1	-0.8922	0.1931		-4.62	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
PPPS_E2	-0.9327	0.2537		-3.68	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
PPPS_E3	-0.7554	0.2885		-2.62	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
PPPS_E4	-0.2684	0.3091		-0.87	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
PPPS_E5	0.3150	0.3200		0.98	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
PPPS_E6	0.9278	0.3233		2.87	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
PPPS_E7	1.4853	0.3196		4.65	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
PPPS_E8	1.7903	0.3082		5.81	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
PPPS_E9	1.6429	0.2874		5.72	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
PPPS_E10	1.1426	0.2526		4.52	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
PPPS_E11	0.5445	0.1924		2.83	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
PPPSPUS_L1	0.7475	0.0384		19.5	1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction Estimation period: January 1984 through December 1998

Table 20. Inventories of Propane, PRPSPUS (million barrels)
Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
PRPSPUS	15	169	303.6	1.7962	1.3402	0.990	0.989	1.44
Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.		'T' Ratio	Label
PRPS_B0	-2.9820	3.8243		-0.78	Constant Coefficient
PRPS_LG	0.5185	0.0266		19.5	LGPSPUS, end-of-month LPG stocks
PRPS_ZW	-0.2567	0.0448		-5.73	ZWHDDUS/ZSAJQUS = heating degree-days deviation from normal per day
PRPS_E1	-1.8292	0.5414		-3.38	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
PRPS_E2	-3.0226	0.7956		-3.80	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
PRPS_E3	-4.5195	0.8098		-5.58	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
PRPS_E4	-4.7611	0.6784		-7.02	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
PRPS_E5	-4.0714	0.5934		-6.86	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
PRPS_E6	-3.1922	0.6656		-4.80	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
PRPS_E7	-2.6375	0.8197		-3.22	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
PRPS_E8	-3.4189	0.9980		-3.43	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
PRPS_E9	-3.0999	1.0097		-3.07	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
PRPS_E10	-2.4907	0.8433		-2.95	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
PRPS_E11	-0.5995	0.5515		-1.09	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
PRPSPUS_L1	0.9640	0.0197		49.0	1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction Estimation period: January 1985 through April 2000

File last modified: August 1, 2000

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