Short-Term Energy Outlook

"Other" Petroleum Products Demand Model Regression Results

Table

1. PPTCPUS - Pentanes Plus
2. UOTCPUS - Unfinished Oils
3. FETCPUS - Petrochemical Feedstocks
4. PCTCPUS - Petroleum Coke
5. ARTCPUS - Asphalt and Road Oil
6. SGTCPUS - Still Gas
7. MZTCPUS - Miscellaneous Products

Related "Other" Petroleum Products Demand Model Documentation

• "Other" Petroleum Products Demand Model Description
• "Other" Petroleum Product sDemand Model Variable Definitions

Table 1. Pentanes Plus Demand, PPTCPUS (million barrels per day)

Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
PPTCPUS	15	107	0.06466	0.000604	0.02458	0.6537	0.6084	2.174

Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.	'T' Ratio	Label
PPTC_B0	-0.011780	0.18891	-0.06	Constant Coefficient
PPTC_T	0.00072400	0.0001032	7.02	TIME = 1 to n, where n = number of observation
PPTC_MG	0.091079	0.40909	0.22	MGYLD, refinery yield of motor gasoline
PPTC_E1	-0.00484557	0.0091850	-0.53	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
PPTC_E2	-0.00539040	0.01075	-0.50	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
PPTC_E3	-0.021739	0.01194	-1.82	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
PPTC_E4	-0.022240	0.01184	-1.88	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
PPTC_E5	-0.018901	0.01187	-1.59	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
PPTC_E6	-0.028392	0.01189	-2.39	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
PPTC_E7	-0.021183	0.01186	-1.79	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
PPTC_E8	-0.033283	0.01189	-2.80	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
PPTC_E9	-0.00818949	0.01156	-0.71	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
PPTC_E10	0.010337	0.01140	0.91	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
PPTC_E11	0.010442	0.0092996	1.12	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
PPTCPUS_L1	0.394107	0.09311	4.23	1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction Estimation period: January 1988 through February 1998

Table 2. Unfinished Oils Demand, UOTCPUS (million barrels per day)

Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
UOTCPUS	13	157	0.75492	0.004808	0.06934	0.2482	0.1907	1.633

Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.	'T' Ratio	Label
UOTC_B0	0.023072	0.03242	0.71	Constant Coefficient
UOTC_RI	-0.231545	0.03777	-6.13	UORIPUS, refinery inputs unfinished oils
UOTC_E1	-0.065863	0.02836	-2.32	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
UOTC_E2	-0.057775	0.02869	-2.01	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
UOTC_E3	-0.075822	0.02987	-2.54	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
UOTC_E4	-0.028274	0.02747	-1.03	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
UOTC_E5	-0.073721	0.02740	-2.69	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
UOTC_E6	-0.047014	0.02650	-1.77	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
UOTC_E7	-0.050763	0.02639	-1.92	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
UOTC_E8	-0.053405	0.02670	-2.00	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
UOTC_E9	-0.070775	0.02707	-2.61	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
UOTC_E10	-0.052298	0.02773	-1.89	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
UOTC_E11	-0.062579	0.02666	-2.35	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
Method of estimation: OLS Estimation period: January 1984 through February 1998

Table 3. Petrochemical Feedstocks Demand, FETCPUS (million barrels per day)

Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
FETCPUS	15	155	0.29437	0.001899	0.04358	0.8312	0.8160	2.181

Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.	'T' Ratio	Label
FETC_B0	-0.256037	0.04803	-5.33	Constant Coefficient
FETC_ZO	0.846982	0.05253	16.12	ZO28IUS, Industrial production index, chemicals and products
FETC_PR	-0.079307	0.02843	-2.79	MGWHUUSX/PRTCUUS, motor gasoline price / propane price
FETC_E1	0.021595	0.01390	1.55	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
FETC_E2	0.021776	0.01620	1.34	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
FETC_E3	0.057836	0.01730	3.34	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
FETC_E4	0.061487	0.01831	3.36	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
FETC_E5	0.066123	0.01969	3.36	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
FETC_E6	0.085153	0.01987	4.28	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
FETC_E7	0.087047	0.01945	4.48	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
FETC_E8	0.060501	0.01914	3.16	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
FETC_E9	0.028743	0.01840	1.56	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
FETC_E10	0.011060	0.01711	0.65	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
FETC_E11	0.000067108	0.01433	0.00	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
FETCPUS_L1	0.375649	0.07437	5.05	1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction Estimation period: January 1984 through February 1998

Table 4. Petroleum Coke Demand, PCTCPUS (million barrels per day)

Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
PCTCPUS	13	157	0.21438	0.001366	0.03695	0.5963	0.5654	1.742

Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.	'T' Ratio	Label
PCTC_B0	0.161843	0.01512	10.70	Constant Coefficient
PCTC_T	0.00086592	0.00005783	14.97	TIME = 1 to n, where n = number of observation
PCTC_E1	0.00109146	0.01373	0.08	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
PCTC_E2	-0.00576724	0.01373	-0.42	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
PCTC_E3	0.00196531	0.01398	0.14	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
PCTC_E4	-0.016747	0.01397	-1.20	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
PCTC_E5	0.00393527	0.01397	0.28	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
PCTC_E6	0.00951965	0.01397	0.68	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
PCTC_E7	-0.00198409	0.01397	-0.14	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
PCTC_E8	0.00856979	0.01397	0.61	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
PCTC_E9	-0.011581	0.01397	-0.83	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
PCTC_E10	0.00359615	0.01397	0.26	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
PCTC_E11	0.00127646	0.01397	0.09	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
Method of estimation: OLS Estimation period: January 1984 through February 1998

Table 5. Asphalt and Road Oil Demand, ARTCPUS (million barrels per day)

Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
ARTCPUS	16	178	0.21702	0.001219	0.03492	0.9744	0.9723	2.170

Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.	'T' Ratio	Label
ARTC_B0	-0.00867012	0.06003	-0.14	Constant Coefficient
ARTC_ZO	0.187669	0.10222	1.84	ZOTOIUS, Industrial production index, total
ARTC_ZW	-0.00357837	0.0013855	-2.58	ZWHDDUS/ZSAJQUS, heating degree-days deviation from normal, per day
ARTC_T	0.00021172	0.0002434	0.87	TIME = 1 to n, where n = number of observation
ARTC_E1	-0.053776	0.01092	-4.93	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
ARTC_E2	-0.026117	0.01226	-2.13	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
ARTC_E3	0.036659	0.01268	2.89	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
ARTC_E4	0.152673	0.01280	11.93	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
ARTC_E5	0.285583	0.01281	22.29	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
ARTC_E6	0.432001	0.01281	33.72	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
ARTC_E7	0.463133	0.01281	36.16	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
ARTC_E8	0.511412	0.01278	40.01	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
ARTC_E9	0.458879	0.01269	36.15	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
ARTC_E10	0.372640	0.01235	30.18	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
ARTC_E11	0.166473	0.01102	15.11	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
ARTCPUS_L1	0.269158	0.07228	3.72	1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction Estimation period: January 1982 through February 1998

Table 6. Still Gas Demand, SGTCPUS (million barrels per day)

Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
SGTCPUS	16	178	0.03684	0.000207	0.01439	0.9359	0.9305	2.233

Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.	'T' Ratio	Label
SGTC_B0	-0.159690	0.09437	-1.69	Constant Coefficient
SGTC_CO	0.037214	0.0041367	9.00	CORIPUS, refinery inputs of crude oil
SGTC_MG	0.526653	0.15314	3.44	MGYLD, refinery yield of motor gasoline
SGTC_D1	0.062047	0.01232	5.04	D86ON = 1 if January 1986 or later, 0 otherwise
SGTC_E1	-0.00293938	0.0038919	-0.76	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
SGTC_E2	0.00462999	0.0052642	0.88	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
SGTC_E3	0.00298266	0.0059345	0.50	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
SGTC_E4	0.013992	0.0061365	2.28	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
SGTC_E5	0.017155	0.0065720	2.61	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
SGTC_E6	0.035119	0.0069391	5.06	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
SGTC_E7	0.037390	0.0068047	5.49	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
SGTC_E8	0.035717	0.0064182	5.56	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
SGTC_E9	0.020679	0.0059184	3.49	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
SGTC_E10	-0.00588813	0.0050412	-1.17	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
SGTC_E11	-0.010263	0.0036676	-2.80	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
SGTCPUS_L1	0.874361	0.04047	21.60	1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction Estimation period: January 1982 through February 1998

Table 7. Miscellaneous Petroleum Product Demand, MZTCPUS (million barrels per day)

Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
MZTCPUS	15	155	0.14954	0.000965	0.03106	0.7748	0.7544	1.850

Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.	'T' Ratio	Label
MZTC_B0	0.276821	0.03606	7.68	Constant Coefficient
MZTC_ZO	0.564918	0.06320	8.94	ZOMNIUS, Industrial production index, manufacturing
MZTC_ZW	0.00414721	0.0013727	3.02	ZWHDDUS/ZSAJQUS, heating degree-days deviation from normal, per day
MZTC_T	-0.00231446	0.0001654	-14.00	TIME = 1 to n, where n = number of observation
MZTC_E1	0.026919	0.01163	2.32	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
MZTC_E2	0.024006	0.01162	2.07	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
MZTC_E3	0.00491528	0.01175	0.42	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
MZTC_E4	-0.022942	0.01176	-1.95	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
MZTC_E5	-0.026365	0.01177	-2.24	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
MZTC_E6	-0.043464	0.01176	-3.70	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
MZTC_E7	-0.054744	0.01177	-4.65	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
MZTC_E8	-0.033605	0.01176	-2.86	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
MZTC_E9	-0.039326	0.01177	-3.34	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
MZTC_E10	-0.023796	0.01177	-2.02	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
MZTC_E11	-0.00311970	0.01185	-0.26	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
Method of estimation: OLS Estimation period: January 1984 through February 1998

File last modified: June 6, 1998

Contact:

Tancred Lidderdale

Email: Tancred.Lidderdale@eia.doe.gov

Phone: (202) 586-7321

Fax: (202) 586-9753

This page's URL: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/document/regrmi.html

If you are having technical problems with this site, please contact the EIA Webmaster at wmaster@eia.doe.gov.