Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Prices Model Regression Results

Table

1. MGWHUUS - Refiner motor gasoline price
2. MGTCAUS - Retail motor gasoline, all grades/services, BLS
3. MGTC1US - Retail motor gasoline, regular/self-service, EIA
4. MGTC2US - Retail motor gasoline, all grades/self-service, EIA
5. DSTCUUS - Diesel fuel oil price
6. D2WHUUS - Refiner distillate fuel oil price
7. D2RCUUS - Residential heating oil price
8. JKTCUUS - Kerosene jet fuel price
9. RFTCUUS - Retail residual fuel price
10. PRTCUUS - Consumer grade propane price
11. PRRCUUS - Residential propane price
12. WP57IUS - Producer Price Index - fuels and power
13. CLEUDUS - Price of coal to electric utilities
14. NGSPUUS - Spot natural gas wellhead price
15. NGWPUUS - Wellhead composite natural gas price
16. NGEUDUS - Price of natural gas to electric utilities
17. NGRCUUS - Residential natural gas price
18. NGCCUUS - Commercial natural gas price
19. NGICUUS - Price of natural gas to industry
20. ESRCUUS - Residential electricity price

Related Energy Prices Model Documentation

• Energy Prices Model Description
• Energy Prices Model Variable Definitions

Table 1. Refiner Motor Gasoline Price: MGWHUUS (cents per gallon)
Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
MGWHUUS	17	80	228.0	2.8503	1.6883	0.965	0.957	1.79
Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.		'T' Ratio	Label
MGWHU_B0	38.364	7.9304		4.84	Constant Coefficient
MGWHU_PC	2.2958	0.0950		24.2	RACPUUS, Refiner average crude oil acquisition cost
MGWHU_DS	-0.7108	0.3194		-2.23	LAG1(MGPSPUSA)/ MGTCPUXA, Deseasonalized gasoline inventory days supply
MGWHU_MJ	-4.0742	1.5080		-2.70	D94MJ = 1 if May or June 1994, 0 otherwise (low gasoline stocks)
MGWHU_DM	-3.3769	1.2903		-2.62	D95ON = 1 if January 1995 or later, 0 otherwise
MGWHU_01	0.9061	0.6759		1.34	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
MGWHU_02	1.5251	0.8619		1.77	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
MGWHU_03	2.9110	0.9326		3.12	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
MGWHU_04	5.2427	0.9502		5.52	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
MGWHU_05	7.3046	0.9865		7.40	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
MGWHU_06	6.5707	0.9822		6.69	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
MGWHU_07	5.3843	0.9673		5.57	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
MGWHU_08	5.8911	0.9376		6.28	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
MGWHU_09	3.8104	0.9117		4.18	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
MGWHU_10	2.0947	0.8479		2.47	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
MGWHU_11	1.6829	0.6963		2.42	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
MGWHUUS_L1	0.4782	0.1022		4.68	1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction Estimation period: January 1992 through January 2000

Table 2. Retail Motor Gasoline, All Grades/Services, BLS: MGTCAUS (cents per gallon)
Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
MGTCAUS	19	162	214.8	1.3259	1.1515	0.989	0.988	1.95
Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.		'T' Ratio	Label
MGUCP_B0	4.5598	2.7786		1.64	Constant Coefficient
MGUCP_WH	0.4903	0.0278		17.7	MGWHUUS, Refiner motor gasoline price
MGUCP_R1	0.5328	0.0273		19.5	LAG(MGWHUUS), Prior month refiner motor gasoline price
MGUCP_CI	8.7225	1.9797		4.41	CICPIUS, Consumer Price Index
MGUCP_OX	5.8764	2.8549		2.06	OXFRAC, Oxygenated gasoline share of total gasoline demand
MGUCP_RF	2.6625	2.5792		1.03	RFFRAC, Reformulated gasoline share of total gasoline demand
MGUCP_OP	-5.2307	8.1621		-0.64	OPFRAC, Oxygenated-reformulated (OPRG) gasoline share of total gasoline demand
MGUCP_01	0.2019	0.3416		0.59	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
MGUCP_02	-0.8934	0.4306		-2.07	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
MGUCP_03	-1.5592	0.5203		-3.00	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
MGUCP_04	-0.6213	0.5727		-1.08	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
MGUCP_05	-1.1454	0.5808		-1.97	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
MGUCP_06	-0.9655	0.5662		-1.71	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
MGUCP_07	-0.8252	0.5624		-1.47	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
MGUCP_08	-0.2288	0.5637		-0.41	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
MGUCP_09	-0.3789	0.5343		-0.71	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
MGUCP_10	-0.7329	0.4525		-1.62	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
MGUCP_11	-0.5978	0.3436		-1.74	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
MGTCAUS_L1	0.6082	0.0655		9.29	1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction Estimation period: Janaury 1985 through January 2000

Table 3. Retail Motor Gasoline, Regular/Self-Service, EIA: MGTC1US (cents per gallon)
Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
MGTC1US	19	78	56.15	0.7198	0.8484	0.991	0.989	1.71
Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.		'T' Ratio	Label
MGUC1_B0	-18.417	7.5559		-2.44	Constant Coefficient
MGUC1_WH	0.6291	0.0332		18.9	MGWHUUS, Refiner motor gasoline price
MGUC1_R1	0.3893	0.0327		11.9	LAG1(MGWHUUSX), Prior month refiner motor gasoline price
MGUC1_CI	17.675	4.8225		3.67	CICPIUS, Consumer Price Index
MGUC1_OX	3.3264	2.9665		1.12	LAG1(OXFRAC), Prior month oxygenated gasoline share of total gasoline demand
MGUC1_RF	1.7404	2.9418		0.59	LAG1(RFFRAC), Prior month reformulated gasoline share of total gasoline demand
MGUC1_OP	-3.5886	8.0572		-0.45	LAG1(OPFRAC), Prior month oxygenated-reformulated (OPRG) gasoline share of total gasoline demand
MGUC1_01	-0.1567	0.3558		-0.44	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
MGUC1_02	-1.0727	0.4602		-2.33	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
MGUC1_03	-1.2955	0.6822		-1.90	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
MGUC1_04	-0.1643	0.7292		-0.23	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
MGUC1_05	-0.3385	0.7684		-0.44	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
MGUC1_06	0.0425	0.7605		0.06	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
MGUC1_07	0.0454	0.7571		0.06	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
MGUC1_08	0.2434	0.7519		0.32	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
MGUC1_09	0.1032	0.7303		0.14	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
MGUC1_10	-0.4486	0.5346		-0.84	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
MGUC1_11	-0.2557	0.3529		-0.72	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
MGTC1US_L1	0.5553	0.0971		5.72	1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction Estimation period: January 1992 through January 2000

Table 4. Retail Motor Gasoline, All Grades/Self-Service, EIA: MGTC2US (cents per gallon)
Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
MGTC2US	19	78	59.09	0.7576	0.8704	0.991	0.988	1.83
Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.		'T' Ratio	Label
MGUC2_B0	-2.7504	7.2379		-0.38	Constant Coefficient
MGUC2_WH	0.5799	0.0341		17.0	MGWHUUS, Refiner motor gasoline price
MGUC2_R1	0.4364	0.0338		12.9	LAG(MGWHUUS), Prior month refiner motor gasoline price
MGUC2_CI	10.654	4.5930		2.32	CICPIUS, Consumer Price Index
MGUC2_OX	8.5734	2.9387		2.92	LAG1(OXFRAC), Prior month oxygenated gasoline share of total gasoline demand
MGUC2_RF	2.8521	2.8234		1.01	LAG1(RFFRAC), Prior month reformulated gasoline share of total gasoline demand
MGUC2_OP	-10.308	8.1117		-1.27	LAG1(OPFRAC), Prior month oxygenated-reformulated (OPRG) gasoline share of total gasoline demand
MGUC2_01	-0.0970	0.3706		-0.26	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
MGUC2_02	-0.8732	0.4722		-1.85	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
MGUC2_03	-0.8354	0.6885		-1.21	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
MGUC2_04	-0.0735	0.7326		-0.10	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
MGUC2_05	-0.7855	0.7666		-1.02	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
MGUC2_06	-0.7861	0.7571		-1.04	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
MGUC2_07	-0.3787	0.7549		-0.50	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
MGUC2_08	-0.2278	0.7510		-0.30	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
MGUC2_09	-0.3393	0.7311		-0.46	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
MGUC2_10	-0.9702	0.5425		-1.79	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
MGUC2_11	-0.4407	0.3661		-1.20	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
MGTC2US_L1	0.5084	0.0992		5.12	1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction Estimation period: January 1992 through January 2000

Table 5. Diesel Fuel Oil Price: DSTCUUS (cents per gallon)
Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
DSTCUUS	17	152	480.7	3.1628	1.7784	0.970	0.967	2.00
Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.		'T' Ratio	Label
DSTCP_B0	34.270	8.1668		4.20	Constant Coefficient
DSTCP_PC	2.2055	0.1022		21.6	RACPUUS, Refiner average crude oil acquisition cost
DSTCP_DS	-0.3030	0.0802		-3.78	LAG1(DFPSPUSA)/ DFTCPUSA, Deseasonalized distillate inventory days supply
DSTCP_CI	7.3450	5.0527		1.45	CICPIUS, Consumer Price Index
DSTCP_D1	9.3579	1.4128		6.62	D9001 = 1 if January 1990, 0 otherwise (cold winter)
DSTCP_01	-1.4203	0.4840		-2.93	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
DSTCP_02	-1.9221	0.6488		-2.96	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
DSTCP_03	-2.4732	0.7552		-3.28	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
DSTCP_04	-2.2271	0.8139		-2.74	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
DSTCP_05	-2.8471	0.8481		-3.36	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
DSTCP_06	-3.1663	0.8618		-3.67	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
DSTCP_07	-4.2669	0.8514		-5.01	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
DSTCP_08	-3.1958	0.8145		-3.92	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
DSTCP_09	-2.4512	0.7550		-3.25	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
DSTCP_10	-1.0114	0.6608		-1.53	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
DSTCP_11	0.1586	0.4919		0.32	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
DSTCUUS_L1	0.8483	0.0437		19.4	1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction Estimation period: January 1986 through January 2000

Table 6. Refiner Distillate Fuel Oil Price: D2WHUUS (cents per gallon)
Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
D2WHUUS	16	132	1359.6	10.300	3.2093	0.922	0.913	0.81
Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.		'T' Ratio	Label
D2WHP_B0	17.747	2.5545		6.95	Constant Coefficient
D2WHP_PC	2.4817	0.0775		32.0	RACPUUS, Refiner average crude oil acquisition cost
D2WHP_DS	-0.0610	0.2791		-0.22	DFTCPUSA**2, deseasonalized distillate demand squared
D2WHP_DL	-0.3444	0.2761		-1.25	LAG1(DFTCPUSA**2), prior month deseasonalized distillate demand squared
D2WHP_ST	-0.0975	0.0240		-4.07	STOCK DIFF, change in distillate stocks
D2WHP_01	0.6846	1.2876		0.53	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
D2WHP_02	-0.3902	1.2880		-0.30	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
D2WHP_03	-1.9472	1.2873		-1.51	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
D2WHP_04	-2.0215	1.2889		-1.57	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
D2WHP_05	-3.7081	1.3114		-2.83	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
D2WHP_06	-4.9151	1.3120		-3.75	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
D2WHP_07	-4.5778	1.3147		-3.48	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
D2WHP_08	-3.0365	1.3123		-2.31	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
D2WHP_09	-1.8442	1.3145		-1.40	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
D2WHP_10	-0.6492	1.3145		-0.49	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
D2WHP_11	-0.1009	1.3117		-0.08	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
Method of estimation: OLS Estimation period: January 1988 through April 2000

Table 7. Residential Heating Oil Price: D2RCUUS(cents per gallon)
Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
D2RCUUS	16	77	47.47	0.6165	0.7851	0.989	0.987	1.21
Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.		'T' Ratio	Label
D2RCP_B0	13.509	3.7542		3.60	Constant Coefficient
D2RCP_R1	0.5070	0.0295		17.2	LAG1(D2RCUUS)
D2RCP_WH	0.4068	0.0231		17.6	D2WHUUS, Refiner Distillate Fuel Oil Price
D2RCP_WN	7.7434	2.3713		3.27	WPIINUS, Producer Price Index petroleum products
D2RCP_01	0.7442	0.3633		2.05	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
D2RCP_02	0.5292	0.4099		1.29	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
D2RCP_03	0.1278	0.4217		0.30	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
D2RCP_04	-1.2991	0.4193		-3.10	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
D2RCP_05	-2.1794	0.4191		-5.20	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
D2RCP_06	-3.2092	0.4195		-7.65	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
D2RCP_07	-4.5707	0.4293		-10.7	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
D2RCP_08	-4.7590	0.4612		-10.3	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
D2RCP_09	-2.6860	0.4975		-5.40	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
D2RCP_10	-1.3486	0.4771		-2.83	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
D2RCP_11	-0.9487	0.3885		-2.44	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
D2RCUUS_L1	0.2443	0.0640		3.81	1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction Estimation period: January 1992 through September 1999

Table 8. Kerosene Jet Fuel Price: JKTCUUS (cents per gallon)
Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
JKTCUUS	14	83	146.6	1.7661	1.3290	0.979	0.975	1.67
Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.		'T' Ratio	Label
JKTCP_B0	3.8409	1.1721		3.28	Constant Coefficient
JKTCP_R1	0.2367	0.0406		5.84	LAG1(JKTCUUS)
JKTCP_PC	0.7354	0.0366		20.1	D2WHUUS, Refiner Distillate Fuel Oil Price
JKTCP_01	-0.5227	0.6566		-0.80	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
JKTCP_02	-0.4880	0.6781		-0.72	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
JKTCP_03	-2.0264	0.6792		-2.98	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
JKTCP_04	-0.6148	0.7163		-0.86	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
JKTCP_05	-0.5571	0.6834		-0.82	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
JKTCP_06	0.0908	0.6723		0.14	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
JKTCP_07	0.4131	0.6798		0.61	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
JKTCP_08	0.8758	0.6847		1.28	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
JKTCP_09	0.5085	0.6898		0.74	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
JKTCP_10	0.6427	0.6844		0.94	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
JKTCP_11	0.5349	0.6676		0.80	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
Method of estimation: OLS Estimation period: January 1992 through January 2000

Table 9. Retail Residual Fuel Oil Price: RFTCUUS (cents per gallon)
Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
RFTCUUS	15	133	442.5	3.3268	1.8240	0.945	0.939	1.65
Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.		'T' Ratio	Label
RFTCP_B0	14.831	2.8138		5.27	Constant Coefficient
RFTCP_PC	1.7066	0.1112		15.4	RACPUUS, Refiner average crude oil acquisition cost
RFTCP_RF	-0.1133	0.0347		-3.27	LAG1(RFPSPUSA)/RFTCPUSA, Deseasonalized residual fuel inventory days supply
RFTCP_01	0.7393	0.5118		1.44	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
RFTCP_02	-1.1377	0.6908		-1.65	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
RFTCP_03	-2.8731	0.8016		-3.58	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
RFTCP_04	-3.4594	0.8718		-3.97	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
RFTCP_05	-2.8905	0.9196		-3.14	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
RFTCP_06	-2.9578	0.9395		-3.15	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
RFTCP_07	-2.9339	0.9307		-3.15	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
RFTCP_08	-2.7191	0.8910		-3.05	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
RFTCP_09	-3.8730	0.8272		-4.68	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
RFTCP_10	-2.6884	0.7244		-3.71	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
RFTCP_11	-0.9639	0.5364		-1.80	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
RFTCUUS_L1	0.8914	0.0423		21.1	1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction Estimation period: January 1988 through April 2000

Table 10. Consumer Grade Propane Price: PRTCUUS(cents per gallon)
Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
PRTCUUS	14	156	2923.5	18.740	4.3290	0.890	0.881	1.60
Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.		'T' Ratio	Label
PRTCP_B0	2.0098	3.4005		0.59	Constant Coefficient
PRTCP_R1	0.9201	0.0290		31.7	LAG1(PRTCUUS)
PRTCP_D2	0.0745	0.0308		2.42	D2RCUUS, Residential heating oil price
PRTCP_01	-1.9734	1.6421		-1.20	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
PRTCP_02	-5.5709	1.6461		-3.38	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
PRTCP_03	-6.7336	1.6152		-4.17	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
PRTCP_04	-8.3895	1.6108		-5.21	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
PRTCP_05	-8.1734	1.6456		-4.97	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
PRTCP_06	-5.8410	1.6638		-3.51	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
PRTCP_07	-3.6434	1.6822		-2.17	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
PRTCP_08	-2.3233	1.6797		-1.38	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
PRTCP_09	-1.9074	1.6603		-1.15	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
PRTCP_10	-2.0050	1.6451		-1.22	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
PRTCP_11	-1.3529	1.6389		-0.83	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
Method of estimation: OLS Estimation period: March 1986 through April 2000

Table 11. Residential Propane Price: PRRCUUS (cents per gallon)
Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
PRRCUUS	14	44	308.6	7.0127	2.6481	0.912	0.886	1.17
Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.		'T' Ratio	Label
PRRCU_B0	2.3644	5.5205		0.43	Constant Coefficient
PRRCU_R1	0.6092	0.0891		6.84	LAG1(PRRCUUS)
PRRCU_D2	0.4081	0.0981		4.16	D2RCUUS, Residential heating oil price
PRRCU_01	-3.0538	1.7104		-1.79	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
PRRCU_02	-3.9874	1.7130		-2.33	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
PRRCU_03	-4.4264	1.7155		-2.58	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
PRRCU_04	-3.6733	1.7147		-2.14	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
PRRCU_05	-2.2119	1.7520		-1.26	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
PRRCU_06	-2.3347	1.8873		-1.24	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
PRRCU_07	-5.1968	1.9869		-2.62	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
PRRCU_08	-6.1825	1.8672		-3.31	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
PRRCU_09	-3.3606	1.8164		-1.85	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
PRRCU_10	-2.6678	1.8052		-1.48	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
PRRCU_11	-2.6121	1.6842		-1.55	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
Method of estimation: OLS Estimation period: November 1993 through August 1998

Table 12. Producer Price Index - Fuels and Power: WP57IUS (index)
Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
WP57IUS	5	165	0.0529	0.000321	0.0179	0.965	0.964	1.69
Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.		'T' Ratio	Label
WP57P_B0	0.0691	0.0202		3.42	Constant Coefficient
WP57P_MG	0.0052	0.000567		9.14	MGWHUUSA, Deseasonalized refiner motor gasoline price
WP57P_DW	-0.0003	0.000561		-0.49	D2WHUUSA, Deseasonalized refiner distillate fuel oil price
WP57P_JK	0.0040	0.000608		6.62	JKTCUUSA, Deseasonalized kerosene jet fuel price
WP57IUS_L1	0.6764	0.0578		11.7	1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction Estimation period: March 1986 through April 2004

Table 13. Coal Price to Electric Utilities: CLEUDUS (dollars per million Btu)
Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
CLEUDUS	16	125	0.0111	0.000088	0.00940	0.989	0.987	2.02
Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.		'T' Ratio	Label
CLEUP_B0	0.35467	0.1085		3.27	Constant Coefficient
CLEUP_R1	0.779416	0.0623		12.51	LAG(CLEUDUS)
CLEUP_MR	-0.0189	0.00528		-3.58	CLMRHUS, Miner productivity (tons/hr)
CLEUP_DS	0.00018	8.1E-05		2.22	DSTCUUS, diesel fuel oil price, excl. tax
CLEUP_01	0.033006	0.00429		7.68	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
CLEUP_02	0.03987	0.00398		10.01	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
CLEUP_03	0.027231	0.00427		6.38	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
CLEUP_04	0.033955	0.0042		8.08	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
CLEUP_05	0.029015	0.00434		6.69	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
CLEUP_06	0.021768	0.00434		5.02	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
CLEUP_07	0.00902	0.00418		2.16	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
CLEUP_08	0.023209	0.00398		5.83	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
CLEUP_09	0.027936	0.00398		7.01	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
CLEUP_10	0.024051	0.00403		5.97	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
CLEUP_11	0.017772	0.00439		4.05	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
CLEUDUS_L1	-0.15728	0.1034		-1.52	1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction Estimation period: January 1988 through September 1999

Table 14. Spot Natural Gas Wellhead Price: NGSPUUS (dollars per million Btu)
Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
NGSPUUS	18	80	5.6291	0.0704	0.2653	0.747	0.693	1.30
Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.		'T' Ratio	Label
NGSPP_B0	0.557987	0.1799		3.1	Constant Coefficient
NGSPP_R1	0.760221	0.0673		11.29	Lag(NGSPUUS)
NGSPP_W1	-8E-05	0.000166		-0.49	GASVAR, Natural gas stocks difference from "normal"
NGSPP_H	0.028218	0.0188		1.5	(ZGHDPUS-ZGHNPUS)/ZSAJQUS, Gas-weighted heating degree days deviation from normal
NGSPP_AN	0.160223	0.1644		0.97	D_HAND = 1 if Sep-Oct 1992, 0 otherwise (Hurricane Andrew)
NGSPP_D1	0.383219	0.2959		1.3	D_294 = 1 if February 1994, 0 otherwise (ice storms)
NGSPP_DM	1.103517	0.29		3.81	DUM9602 = 1 if February 1996, 0 otherwise (low gas storage)
NGSPP_01	-0.09587	0.1294		-0.74	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
NGSPP_02	-0.20553	0.1397		-1.47	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
NGSPP_03	-0.24633	0.1363		-1.81	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
NGSPP_04	-0.06895	0.1415		-0.49	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
NGSPP_05	-0.12619	0.1392		-0.91	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
NGSPP_06	-0.13369	0.1382		-0.97	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
NGSPP_07	-0.09228	0.138		-0.67	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
NGSPP_08	-0.07841	0.1383		-0.57	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
NGSPP_09	-0.11014	0.1379		-0.8	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
NGSPP_10	-0.00618	0.1363		-0.05	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
NGSPP_11	0.100599	0.135		0.75	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
Method of estimation: OLS Estimation period: January 1992 through February 2002

Table 15. Composite Natural Gas Wellhead Price: NGWPUUS (dollars per Mcf)
Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
NGWPUUS	15	83	0.9158	0.0110	0.1050	0.923	0.911	1.66
Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.		'T' Ratio	Label
NGWPP_B0	0.354458	0.0799		4.43	Constant Coefficient
NGWPP_R1	0.294301	0.0448		6.56	LAG(NGWPUUS)
NGWPP_SP	0.544311	0.0331		16.44	NGSPUUS, spot natural gas wellhead price
NGWPP_DM	-0.74118	0.1209		-6.13	DUM9602 = 1 if February 1996, 0 otherwise (low gas storage)
NGWPP_01	-0.02613	0.0513		-0.51	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
NGWPP_02	-0.10649	0.0532		-2	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
NGWPP_03	-0.09509	0.0537		-1.77	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
NGWPP_04	-0.05526	0.054		-1.02	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
NGWPP_05	0.009807	0.0535		0.18	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
NGWPP_06	-0.03509	0.0532		-0.66	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
NGWPP_07	-0.03518	0.0533		-0.66	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
NGWPP_08	-0.0283	0.0532		-0.53	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
NGWPP_09	-0.02748	0.0531		-0.52	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
NGWPP_10	0.018525	0.053		0.35	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
NGWPP_11	0.011839	0.0528		0.22	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
Method of estimation: OLS Estimation period: January 1992 through February 2002

Table 16. Natural Gas Price to Electric Utilities: NGEUDUS(dollars per million Btu)
Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
NGEUDUS	16	151	0.9171	0.00607	0.0779	0.953	0.949	2.03
Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.		'T' Ratio	Label
NGEUP_B0	0.560996	0.1001		5.61	Constant Coefficient
NGEUP_WP	0.938513	0.0379		24.79	NGWPUUS, wellhead composite natural gas price
NGEUP_RF	0.063003	0.0278		2.26	RFEUDUS, Cost of residual fuel oil to electric utilities
NGEUP_01	0.025585	0.0222		1.15	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
NGEUP_02	0.06381	0.0309		2.06	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
NGEUP_03	-0.02934	0.0355		-0.83	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
NGEUP_04	-0.0744	0.0373		-2	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
NGEUP_05	-0.09137	0.038		-2.4	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
NGEUP_06	-0.11915	0.0388		-3.07	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
NGEUP_07	-0.12215	0.0383		-3.19	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
NGEUP_08	-0.12571	0.0366		-3.43	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
NGEUP_09	-0.11164	0.0342		-3.26	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
NGEUP_10	-0.11289	0.0295		-3.83	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
NGEUP_11	-0.0433	0.0223		-1.94	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
NGEUD_L1	0.734947	0.0804		9.14	1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter
NGEUD_L2	0.013618	0.0798		0.17	2nd-order autocorrelation correction parameter
Method of estimation: OLS with 2nd-order autocorrelation correction Estimation period: March 1986 through January 2000

Table 17. Residential Natural Gas Price: NGRCUUS (dollars per mcf)
Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
NGRCUUS	15	126	3.3367	0.0265	0.1627	0.977	0.974	1.67
Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.		'T' Ratio	Label
NGRCP_B0	-0.66609	0.2563		-2.6	Constant Coefficient
NGRCP_R1	0.711381	0.0519		13.7	LAG1(NGRCUUS)
NGRCP_WI	1.288232	0.3262		3.95	WPIINUS, Producer Price Index petroleum products
NGRCP_NP	0.280094	0.0591		4.74	LAG1(NGWPUUS), Prior month wellhead composite natural gas price
NGRCP_01	0.048924	0.0688		0.71	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
NGRCP_02	0.140005	0.0689		2.03	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
NGRCP_03	0.15237	0.0686		2.22	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
NGRCP_04	0.412987	0.0693		5.96	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
NGRCP_05	0.755181	0.0702		10.76	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
NGRCP_06	1.180166	0.078		15.13	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
NGRCP_07	1.019752	0.1048		9.73	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
NGRCP_08	0.961044	0.1213		7.93	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
NGRCP_09	0.434247	0.13		3.34	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
NGRCP_10	-0.2464	0.1154		-2.13	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
NGRCP_11	-0.29111	0.0794		-3.66	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
Method of estimation: OLS Estimation period: January 1988 through September 1999

Table 18. Commercial Natural Gas Price: NGCCUUS (dollars per mcf)
Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
NGCCUUS	15	126	1.6260	0.0129	0.1136	0.923	0.915	2.41
Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.		'T' Ratio	Label
NGCCP_B0	0.132005	0.1663		0.79	Constant Coefficient
NGCCP_R1	0.623216	0.047		13.26	LAG1(NGCCUUS)
NGCCP_WP	0.329749	0.0394		8.38	NGWPUUS, wellhead composite natural gas price
NGCCP_WI	0.894513	0.2031		4.4	WPIINUS, Producer Price Index petroleum products
NGCCP_01	0.03184	0.0478		0.67	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
NGCCP_02	0.078371	0.0504		1.56	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
NGCCP_03	0.006243	0.0517		0.12	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
NGCCP_04	0.097073	0.0503		1.93	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
NGCCP_05	-0.06174	0.0501		-1.23	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
NGCCP_06	0.043048	0.0493		0.87	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
NGCCP_07	-0.06501	0.0495		-1.31	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
NGCCP_08	0.023274	0.0487		0.48	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
NGCCP_09	-0.00129	0.0487		-0.03	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
NGCCP_10	-0.07482	0.049		-1.53	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
NGCCP_11	-0.00885	0.0486		-0.18	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
Method of estimation: OLS Estimation period: January 1988 through September 1999

Table 19. Natural Gas Price to Industry: NGICUUS (dollars per Mcf)
Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
NGICUUS	15	152	1.5437	0.0102	0.1008	0.935	0.930	1.25
Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.		'T' Ratio	Label
NGICP_B0	0.576649	0.0929		6.21	Constant Coefficient
NGICP_R1	0.474941	0.0377		12.6	LAG(NGICUUS)
NGICP_WP	0.522947	0.0382		13.69	NGWPUUS, Wellhead composite natural gas price
NGICP_RF	0.05164	0.0175		2.95	RFEUDUS, Cost of residual fuel oil to electric utilities
NGICP_01	0.034718	0.0387		0.9	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
NGICP_02	0.019038	0.0431		0.44	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
NGICP_03	-0.07498	0.0423		-1.77	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
NGICP_04	-0.14596	0.0399		-3.66	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
NGICP_05	-0.2273	0.0389		-5.85	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
NGICP_06	-0.20294	0.0391		-5.19	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
NGICP_07	-0.2199	0.0393		-5.6	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
NGICP_08	-0.2286	0.0394		-5.8	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
NGICP_09	-0.17936	0.0395		-4.54	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
NGICP_10	-0.1593	0.0393		-4.05	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
NGICP_11	-0.01453	0.0389		-0.37	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
Method of estimation: OLS Estimation period: March 1986 through January 2000

Table 20. Residential Electricity Price: ESRCUUS (cents per kilowatt hour)
Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
ESRCUUS	15	126	0.8595	0.00682	0.0826	0.971	0.968	2.43
Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.		'T' Ratio	Label
ESRCP_B0	2.586714	0.9714		2.66	Constant Coefficient
ESRCP_AF	0.36175	0.2507		1.44	AFUEUUS, Weighted cost fossil fuels to electric utilities
ESRCP_WI	3.465849	0.6443		5.38	WPIINUS, Producer Price Index petroleum products
ESRCP_01	-0.1773	0.0247		-7.19	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
ESRCP_02	-0.04161	0.0328		-1.27	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
ESRCP_03	0.090118	0.0376		2.39	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
ESRCP_04	0.285825	0.0412		6.94	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
ESRCP_05	0.540008	0.0433		12.46	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
ESRCP_06	0.722947	0.0435		16.62	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
ESRCP_07	0.741253	0.0427		17.37	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
ESRCP_08	0.760437	0.041		18.54	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
ESRCP_09	0.689034	0.0381		18.1	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
ESRCP_10	0.565432	0.033		17.13	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
ESRCP_11	0.227273	0.0246		9.23	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
ESRCUUS_L1	0.925229	0.0409		22.65	1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction Estimation period: January 1988 through September 1999

File last modified: July 21, 2000

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