Tropical Storm IKE

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TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  52
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008
 
IKE STILL EXHIBITS SOLID AND WELL-DEFINED SPIRAL BANDS IN RADAR
IMAGERY AND CERTAINLY STILL QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KT WERE REPORTED EAST OF THE CENTER AT
TEXARKANA AT SYNOPTIC TIME...AND THE BAND THAT PRODUCED THOSE WINDS
HAS NOT YET PASSED OVER ANOTHER SURFACE OBSERVING SITE.  RADAR
VELOCITIES FROM SHREVEPORT AND LITTLE ROCK DO NOT PROVIDE MUCH
EVIDENCE THAT THE OVERALL CIRCULATION HAS WEAKENED THIS
EVENING...SO I AM COMPELLED TO ASSUME THAT IKE IS STILL PRODUCING
SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE SOMEWHERE AT THE
SURFACE...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.  SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS STILL RATHER LOW
AT ABOUT 982 MB.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS STILL ANTICIPATED AS IKE
PROCEEDS NORTHEASTWARD OVER LAND...ALTHOUGH AS AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE IT COULD EVENTUALLY PRODUCE GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR OR OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND OVER ATLANTIC CANADA IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS.

ROUNDING THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...IKE IS IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES...AND MY BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION AT ADVISORY TIME IS
025/21.  EVEN THOUGH IKE WILL LIKELY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW IKE
REMAINING A DISTINCT ENTITY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE
SHOWS POINTS OUT TO 48 HOURS.  BEYOND THAT TIME...THE EXTRATROPICAL
VERSION OF IKE SHOULD GRADUALLY MERGE WITH A LARGER LOW AT VERY
HIGH LATITUDES.

 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0300Z 34.3N  93.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     14/1200Z 37.4N  91.2W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     15/0000Z 42.2N  82.7W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     15/1200Z 46.8N  71.6W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     16/0000Z 51.0N  59.2W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER KNABB
 
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