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2006 |
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EIA Outlook for U.S. Heating Fuels
This presentation at the 2006 State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference in North Falmouth, Massachusetts, outlined EIA's current forecast for U.S. crude oil, distillate, propane and gasoline supply, demand, and markets over the coming winter season. (Presentation, 8/7/06)
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2005 |
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Oil Markets After the Hurricanes: Reversion to the Mean or Return to
Recent Trend?
This presentation focuses on the impacts Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma will have on oil markets (supply, demand, stocks, and imports) in the fourth quarter of 2005 and into 2006. The presentation looks examines whether oil markets are likely to return to much lower prices (the long term average) or continue the trend of high oil prices seen over the last couple of years.
(Presentation, 12/14/2005)
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Distillate in Depth – The Supply, Demand, and Price Picture
The presentation provides background on distillate supply and demand, and then focuses on how hurricanes Katrina and Rita impact on refining capacity might affect winter fuels.
(Presentation, 10/12/2005)
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Energy Policy Forum to Discuss "Possible Solutions to High Gas Prices"
EIA representatives participated in two Energy Policy Forums sponsored by Congressman
Jim Gerlach in Pennsylvania on July 6 and 7, 2005. EIA's presentation covered trends,
underlying factors, and EIA's outlook for retail gasoline prices.
(Presentation, 7/13/2005)
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California Gasoline Price Study
EIA testifies in local Congressional hearing on what has been driving up gasoline
prices in 2004 and 2005, focusing particularly on California where the hearing was held.
(Presentation, 5/10/2005)
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2004: Sign of the Future for Refiners?
A presentation to the NPRA Annual Meeting discussing the major factors that drove
petroleum prices, price differentials, and margins in 2004, and what this might mean
for refiners as we look towards the future. (Presentation, 3/14/2005)
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Petroleum and Natural Gas Outlook
A presentation to the National Association of State Energy Officials 2005 Energy Outlook
Conference, in Washington, DC, on February 17, 2005, giving EIA’s outlook for petroleum
and natural gas supply, demand, and prices. (Presentation, 2/18/2005)
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Petroleum Supply and Market Outlook
A presentation to the 7th Annual International Airport Operations/Jet Fuel Conference,
in Orlando, Florida, on February 3, 2005, giving EIA’s outlook for petroleum supply
and prices, with particular attention to jet fuel.
(Presentation, 2/9/2005)
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2004 |
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World Petroleum Market Changes and Impact on U.S.
This presentation was given at the Oil Price Information Service National Supply Summit
by Joanne Shore and John Hackworth. It covers the world oil market changes and the
impact on domestic outlook for petroleum supply.
(Presentation, 10/12/2004)
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Northeast Energy Outlook Panel
The presentation was given at the Council of State Governments Eastern Regional
Conference by Doug Macintyre. It covers the world oil market and the domestic outlook
for crude oil, distillate, natural gas, propane, and gasoline.
(Presentation, 8/10/2004)
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2003 |
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2003 California Gasoline Price Study
This is the final report to Congressman Ose describing the factors driving
California's spring 2003 gasoline price spike and the subsequent price increases in
June and August.
(Publication, 12/5/2003)
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Inquiry into August 2003 Gasoline Price Spike
This report, prepared at the request of Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham, examines
the factors behind the sharp increases in gasoline prices that occurred throughout the
United States in August 2003.
(Publication, 12/02/2003)
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Why Events Overseas Matter to Gasoline Retailers and Consumers
Attempts to explain how changes in the global supply and demand of crude oil can
affect retail gasoline prices in various parts of the country. It does this by exploring
3 recent gasoline price spikes: Spring 2001, March 2003, and August 2003. The
presentation compares and contrasts these price spikes in order to give the audience an
understanding of the various reasons behind gasoline price increases.
(Presentation, 10/11/2003)
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Crude Oil, Heating Oil, and Propane Market Outlook
This PowerPoint presentation provides an early look at the crude oil, heating oil,
and propane market outlooks for the winter of 2003/04. It was given at the 2003 State
Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference held in Asheville, NC on August 11, 2003.
(Presentation, 8/19/2003)
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Outlook for Natural Gas and Petroleum
This presentation by Guy Caruso, Administrator of the Energy Information Administration,
addresses current market conditions for crude oil, petroleum products, and natural gas
and the short-term outlook for these commodities. Inventories of crude oil, distillate
fuel oil, propane, and natural gas are all below recent averages and a number of
uncertainties exist relating to prices, supplies, and consumption for the next winter.
(Presentation, 8/5/2003)
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Elasticity of Demand for Relative Petroleum Inventory in the Short Run
This paper, reprinted from The Atlantic Economic Journal (Mar, 2003), describes the
results of a study of the demand for crude oil inventories in a number of OECD countries
and country groups. The study demonstrated both theoretically and empirically that the
short-run relative demand for inventory is negatively related to price. The empirical
results suggest that the demand for crude oil inventories in the G7 countries is much
less elastic than that of the non-G7 OECD countries in the short-run.
(Feature Article, 3/25/2003)
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Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels
This paper (reprinted from the International Advances in Economic Research (Nov, 2002)
describes a simple model to forecast West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot prices.
This short-term monthly forecasting model uses only lagged relative OECD petroleum
inventories as the explanatory variable. Since petroleum inventories are a measure of
balance between production and demand, the paper develops the concept of relative
inventories and shows how they can be used to develop crude oil spot price forecasts.
(Feature Article, 3/6/2003)
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2002 |
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Supply Impact of Losing MTBE and Using Ethanol
States are moving to ban MTBE, which will increase demand for ethanol and reduce
refiners ability to produce reformulated gasoline. Making these changes is complex, and
the transition period could find consumers facing price volatility.
(Presentation, 10/24/2002)
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Refining Challenges: Changing Crude Oil Quality & Product Specifications
This PowerPoint presentation will focus on the challenges refiners face in the near-
to mid-term as they prepare for upcoming product specification changes, and what that
may mean for their choices of crude oil feedstocks.
(Presentation, 9/30/2002)
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Crude Oil, Heating Oil, and Propane Market Outlook
This PowerPoint presentation provides an early look at the crude oil, heating oil, and
propane market outlooks for the winter of 2002/03. It was given at the 2002 State Heating
Oil and Propane Program Conference held in Kennebunkport, ME on August 12, 2002.
(Presentation, 8/21/2002)
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Petroleum Outlook: Increased Inter-PADD Movements Expected
This presentation explores the need for more inter-PADD movements of production over the
next 5 years. An MTBE ban could increase the need for product movements even more than a
the case in which MTBE continues to be used.
(Presentation, 4/9/2002)
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Availability of Gasoline Imports in the Short to Mid Term: U.S. Perspective
Analyzes changes in gasoline markets, both here in the United States
and abroad, that might affect the availability of gasoline imports between now and 2007.
This includes changes in gasoline specifications both here and in other countries that
supply imported gasoline, as well as growing demand in these countries.
(Presentation, 3/19/2002)
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Petroleum Outlook 2002: On the Road to Pamplona
A presentation to the National Petrochemical and Refiners Association Annual Meeting,
discussing EIA's outlook for global and U.S. petroleum supply, demand, and prices.
Specific attention is paid to the impact of recent and expected actions by OPEC and
other oil exporting countries, and to the outlook for gasoline markets during the
coming peak summer driving season.
(Presentation, 3/18/2002)
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Jet Fuel Supply/Price Outlook: Fueling the Recovery
A presentation to the 4th International Jet Fuel Conference, giving EIA’s perspective on
the outlook for petroleum supply and prices, with particular attention to the coming
recovery in both the U.S. economy and the airline industry, and the longer-term
adequacy of jet fuel supply.
(Presentation, 2/11/2002)
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2001 |
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Midwest Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Near-Term Outlook
The Midwest could see higher prices compared to the national average for gasoline and
distillate fuels during the fall of 2001 as a result of the loss of capacity from the
fire at Citgo's Lemont refinery and from refinery maintenance.
(Feature Article, 10/5/2001)
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Crude Oil, Heating Oil, and Propane Market Outlook
This PowerPoint presentation provides an early look at the crude oil, heating oil,
and propane market outlooks for the winter of 2001/02. It was given by Doug MacIntyre at
the 2001 State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference held in Wilmington, DE on
August 13, 2001.
(Presentation, 8/13/2001)
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Factors Impacting Gasoline Prices and Areas for Further Study
Presentation by Dr. John S. Cook, Director of the Petroleum Division in EIA's Office of
Oil and Gas.
(Presentation, 8/10/2001)
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U.S. Gasoline Supply and Prices in the Summer of 2001
EIA testimony outlining the factors that are affecting gasoline prices this summer. Also
discusses the impact OPEC production decisions and the recent cutoff of Iraqi exports
may have on U.S. product markets this year.
(Presentation, 6/14/2001)
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What Factors Are Affecting Gasoline And Natural Gas Markets?
Testimony before the Committee on Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Energy and
Air Quality.
(Presentation, 5/15/2001)
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Gasoline Prices: What is Happening?
Presentation by Douglas MacIntyre and Joanne Shore, Petroleum Division in EIA's Office
of Oil and Gas.
(Presentation, 5/10/2001)
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Why Is West Coast Gasoline So Expensive?
Testimony on current gasoline prices as well as the unique situations on the West Coast
with regard to prices.
(Presentation, 4/25/2001)
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EIA's Testimony before the Subcommittee on Energy and Air Quality Committee on Energy and Commerce
Dr. John S. Cook, Director of the Petroleum Division in EIA's Office of Oil and Gas.
(Presentation, 3/30/2001)
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Petroleum Outlook: More Volatility?
Dr. John S. Cook, Director of the Petroleum Division in EIA's Office of Oil and Gas.
(Presentation, 3/19/2001)
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Oil Market Basics
An overview of oil markets and how they function.
(Publication, 3/1/2001)
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NASEO Energy Outlook Conference
Dr. John S. Cook, Director of the Petroleum Division in EIA's Office of Oil and Gas.
(Presentation, 2/26/2001)
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Propane - A Mid-Heating Season Assessment
This report will analyze some of the factors leading up to the rapid increase in
propane demand and subsequent deterioration in supply that propelled propane prices to
record high levels during December and early January.
(Feature Article, 1/29/2001)
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Presentation for National Governors' Association
Dr. John S. Cook, Director of the Petroleum Division in EIA's Office of Oil and Gas.
(Presentation, 1/26/2001)
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Summary Short-Term Petroleum and Natural Gas Outlook
Presentation from Energy Information Administration.
(Presentation, 1/12/2001)
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2000 |
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December 2000 Short-Term Energy Outlook
Presentation by Acting Administrator Mark J. Mazur, Energy Information Administration.
(Presentation, 12/18/2000)
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Regional Energy Profile Forum on Energy Preparedness
Presentation by Alice Lippert and Douglas MacIntyre, Petroleum Division in EIA's
Office of Oil and Gas.
(Presentation, 12/1/2000)
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PPMCSA Presentation on Winter Distillate Outlook
Presentation by Joanne Shore, Petroleum Division in EIA's Office of Oil and Gas.
(Presentation, 9/15/2000)
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Winter Distillate and Propane Outlook
Presentation by Joanne Shore, Petroleum Division in EIA's Office of Oil and Gas.
(Presentation, 9/7/2000, HTML, Power Point)
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Crude Oil Market Outlook
Presentation by Douglas MacIntyre, Petroleum Division in EIA's Office of Oil and Gas.
(Presentation, 9/7/2000)
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Supply of Chicago/Milwaukee Gasoline Spring 2000
Presentation by Joanne Shore, Petroleum Division in EIA's Office of Oil and Gas.
(Presentation, 8/9/2000)
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Propane Market Status Report
Presentation by Alice Lippert, Petroleum Division in EIA's Office of Oil and Gas.
(Presentation, 7/27/2000)
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Winter Distillate and Natural Gas Outlook
Dr. John S. Cook, Director of the Petroleum Division in EIA's Office of Oil and Gas.
(Presentation, 7/27/2000)
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EIA's Senate Testimony About Rising Crude Oil and Gasoline Prices
Dr. John S. Cook, Director of the Petroleum Division in EIA's Office of Oil and Gas.
(Presentation, 7/13/2000)
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EIA's Senate Testimony About Rising Crude Oil and Gasoline Prices
Dr. John S. Cook, Director of the Petroleum Division in EIA's Office of Oil and Gas.
(Presentation, 6/29/2000)
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A Year of Volatility:Oil Markets and Gasoline
Dr. John S. Cook, Director of the Petroleum Division in EIA's Office of Oil and Gas.
(Presentation, 6/21/2000)
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Summer 2000 Motor Gasoline Outlook
The annual Motor Gasoline Assessment provides an analysis of the dominant factors
shaping the supply (production, stocks, imports) and price of the product for the
upcoming summer season of peak demand.
(Publication, 5/17/2000)
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Update: Increased Potential for Gasoline Price Spikes--Spring & Summer
Dr. John S. Cook, Director of the Petroleum Division in EIA's Office of Oil and Gas.
(Presentation, 4/18/2000)
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U. S. Distillate Market Update
EIA Administrator Jay E. Hakes
(Presentation, 4/7/2000)
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EIA's House of Representatives Testimony About Rising Heating Oil, Diesel, and Gasoline Prices
Dr. John S. Cook, Director of the Petroleum Division in EIA's Office of Oil and Gas.
(Presentation, 3/9/2000)
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Myth About Second Quarter Crude Oil Prices
Dr. John S. Cook, Director of the Petroleum Division in EIA's Office of Oil and Gas.
(Presentation, 3/9/2000)
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Why Are Heating Oil Prices Spiking in the Northeast
Dr. John S. Cook, Director of the Petroleum Division in EIA's Office of Oil and Gas.
(Presentation, 3/6/2000)
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EIA's Senate Testimony About Rising Heating Oil, Diesel, and Gasoline Prices
Dr. John S. Cook, Director of the Petroleum Division in EIA's Office of Oil and Gas.
(Presentation, 2/24/2000)
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U.S. Distillate Market Testimony for New York Assembly Hearing
Dr. John S. Cook, Director of the Petroleum Division in EIA's Office of Oil and Gas.
(Presentation, 2/4/2000)
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1999 |
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1999-2000 Winter Fuels Outlook
Extract from the Short-Term Energy Outlook October 1999, which analyzes demand, supply
and prices of natural gas, heating oil and propane in the coming winter season.
(Feature Article, 10/20/1999)
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Petroleum: An Energy Profile 1999
This report explains in laymen's terms the major components and operations of the U.S.
petroleum industry that include: petroleum products, resources and reserves, drilling
and exploration, refining, storage and transportation, imports, exports, and petroleum
marketing.
(Publication, 7/29/1999)
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EIA's Petroleum Data and Web Site
Energy Information Administration Midwest Workshop, May 20-21, 1999.
(Presentation, 6/8/1999)
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Demand and Price Outlook for Phase 2 Reformulated Gasoline, 2000
Phase 2 of the U.S. reformulated gasoline program begins at the end of this year. This
article, published in the Petroleum Supply Monthly, April 1999, provides a forecast and
analysis of the demand and price for Phase 2 reformulated gasoline for the year 2000.
(Feature Article, 5/19/1999)
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High Propane Stocks: Structural Change or Cycle - OPIS NGL Supply Summit
Dr. John S. Cook, Director of the Petroleum Division in EIA's Office of Oil and Gas.
(Presentation, 5/17/1999)
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1998 |
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1998-99 Winter Fuels Outlook
Extract from the Short-Term Energy Outlook October 1998, which analyzes demand, supply
and prices of natural gas, heating oil and propane in the coming winter season.
(Feature Article, 10/20/1998)
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Winter Fuels Outlook - EIA/NASEO Winter Fuels Conference
Categories: Prices, Production & Processing, Imports/Exports & Movements, Stocks, Consumption/Sales;
(Presentation, 10/8/1998, Power Point, PDF)
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Assessment of Summer 1997 Motor Gasoline Price Increase
Assesses the 1997 late summer gasoline market and some of the important issues surrounding that event.
(Publication, 5/1998)
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1997 |
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Propane Market Assessment for Winter 1997-1998
Major components of propane supply and demand in the United States and their status
entering the 1997-1998 heating season.
(Feature Article, 12/1997)
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A Contrast Between Distillate Fuel Oil Markets in Autumn 1996 and 1997
Differences between conditions in the fall of 1996, when markets were very tight, and
at the beginning of the heating season in 1997-1998.
(Feature Article, 12/1997)
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Petroleum 1996: Issues and Trends
Analyses of a broad spectrum of petroleum markets, ranging from oil field prices to
pump prices at local gasoline stations.
(Publication, 9/15/1997)
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Motor Gasoline Assessment, Spring 1997
Factors causing the run up of motor gasoline prices during Spring 1996 and the market
decline during Spring 1997.
(Publication, 7/1997)
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An Analysis of U.S. Propane Markets, Winter 1996-97
Examination of propane supply, demand, and price developments and trends.
(Publication, 6/1997)
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1989 |
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A Review of Valdez Oil Spill Market Impacts
(Feature Article, 3/1989)
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