FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 12, 2008, AT 8:30 A.M. EDT


Timothy Winters/ Aneta Lukasik                                                                                                                                                                                            CB08-132
Service Sector Statistics Division
(301) 763-2713

ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL TRADE AND FOOD SERVICES


AUGUST 2008

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $381.2 billion, a decrease of 0.3 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month, but 1.6 percent (±0.7%) above August 2007. Total sales for the June through August 2008 period were up 2.3 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The June to July 2008 percent change was revised from -0.1 percent (±0.5%)* to -0.5 percent (±0.3%).

Retail trade sales were down 0.3 percent (±0.5%)* from July 2008, but were 1.3 percent (±0.7%) above last year. Gasoline station sales were up 22.5 percent (±1.8%) from August 2007 and sales of food and beverage stores were up 6.9 percent (±0.8%) from last year.

The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.

Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales

(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)

The Advance Monthly Retail Sales for Retail and Food Services for September is scheduled to be released October 15, 2008 at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

For information, visit the Census Bureau's Web site at <http://www.census.gov/retail>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's STAT-USA (202-482-1986).

* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different than zero.



TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--August 2008

Estimates adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. (Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2) (In Millions of dollars) 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 NAICS(1) Kind of Business Aug(3) Jul Jun Aug Jul Code (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 381,169 382,190 384,069 375,303 374,270 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 313,659 315,942 314,864 297,237 298,470 Retail ....................................... 342,530 343,622 345,636 338,245 337,120 GAFO(4).......................................... (*) 99,727 99,542 97,692 97,543 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 67,510 66,248 69,205 78,066 75,800 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 60,991 59,784 62,642 71,738 69,473 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 9,284 9,282 9,315 9,958 10,009 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 9,423 9,551 9,548 9,312 9,190 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 7,712 7,685 7,451 7,339 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 1,839 1,863 1,861 1,851 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 27,313 27,929 27,840 28,063 28,125 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 23,716 23,719 24,600 24,808 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 49,945 49,613 49,405 46,737 46,996 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 44,650 44,351 44,188 41,773 42,017 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 3,569 3,527 3,324 3,346 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 20,630 20,586 20,570 19,987 19,916 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 17,006 17,005 16,587 16,658 447 Gasoline stations................................ 44,296 45,427 45,334 36,148 36,716 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 19,088 19,152 19,071 18,862 18,928 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (S) (S) (S) (S) 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 3,313 3,351 3,427 3,391 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 2,284 2,286 2,240 2,227 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 7,567 7,531 7,543 7,398 7,495 452 General merchandise stores....................... 50,531 50,626 50,508 48,434 48,173 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 16,840 17,091 17,131 17,577 17,533 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)............... (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 33,535 33,377 30,857 30,640 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) 29,719 29,574 27,247 27,049 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,816 3,803 3,610 3,591 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 10,136 10,241 10,092 10,011 10,000 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 26,807 27,436 27,205 25,269 25,772 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 18,564 18,504 17,653 18,129 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 38,639 38,568 38,433 37,058 37,150 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (S) Suppressed (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & clothing accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.

TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--August 2008

Estimates not adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 8 month total % Chg. 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 NAICS(1) Kind of Business 2008 from Aug(2) Jul Jun Aug Jul Code 2007 (a) (p) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 3,022,996 2.8 390,393 391,508 385,737 392,108 376,319 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 2,439,884 5.6 319,494 319,561 314,258 306,475 296,300 Retail ....................................... 2,715,097 2.6 349,358 351,513 346,727 353,308 337,869 GAFO(3).......................................... (*) (*) (*) 94,931 94,384 99,584 91,434 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 583,112 -7.7 70,899 71,947 71,479 85,633 80,019 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 531,019 -8.5 64,041 64,985 64,647 78,697 73,433 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 50,344 49,488 63,508 58,903 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 6,962 6,832 6,936 6,586 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 73,072 -5.6 9,720 9,328 8,942 10,605 9,839 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 4,904 4,670 5,548 5,164 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 4,424 4,272 5,057 4,675 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 70,378 3.1 9,215 8,947 8,778 9,243 8,501 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 7,211 7,070 7,354 6,796 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 1,736 1,708 1,889 1,705 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 224,435 -2.9 27,209 30,841 31,597 29,663 29,948 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 26,325 26,091 26,789 26,644 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 390,208 6.2 50,939 51,176 48,876 47,856 47,536 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 350,858 6.4 45,543 45,726 43,702 42,817 42,479 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 3,776 3,516 3,427 3,450 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 162,830 3.7 20,279 20,401 20,076 20,127 19,418 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 16,836 16,495 16,637 16,208 447 Gasoline stations................................ 353,303 21.1 48,061 50,378 48,825 39,799 40,167 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 139,771 1.6 19,213 17,715 17,344 19,091 17,123 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 765 860 769 760 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 2,952 3,230 3,232 2,981 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 7,152 6,582 7,540 6,785 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 2,197 2,092 2,737 2,107 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 55,668 3.3 8,588 6,981 6,940 8,323 6,858 452 General merchandise stores....................... 379,413 5.1 50,385 48,566 49,273 48,156 45,636 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 123,869 -2.9 16,540 15,518 16,014 17,304 15,671 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)............... (*) (*) (*) 15,937 16,445 17,781 16,110 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 33,048 33,259 30,852 29,965 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) (*) (*) 29,392 29,574 27,383 26,589 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 3,656 3,685 3,469 3,376 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 78,234 1.1 10,265 10,334 10,144 10,412 9,805 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 204,673 6.2 24,585 24,899 24,453 24,400 23,019 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 17,562 17,283 17,512 16,733 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 307,899 4.7 41,035 39,995 39,010 38,800 38,450 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & clothing accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (4) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.

TABLE 2A. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--August 2008

Estimates adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes (Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*) Aug Jul 2008 2008 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Jul Aug Jun Jul Code 2008 2007 2008 2007 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... -0.3 +1.6 -0.5 +2.1 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... -0.7 +5.5 +0.3 +5.9 Retail .................................. -0.3 +1.3 -0.6 +1.9 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +1.9 -13.5 -4.3 -12.6 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... +2.0 -15.0 -4.6 -13.9 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 0.0 -6.8 -0.4 -7.3 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -1.3 +1.2 0.0 +3.9 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -2.2 -2.7 +0.3 -0.7 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +0.7 +6.9 +0.4 +5.6 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +0.7 +6.9 +0.4 +5.6 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +0.2 +3.2 +0.1 +3.4 447 Gasoline stations................................ -2.5 +22.5 +0.2 +23.7 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... -0.3 +1.2 +0.4 +1.2 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +0.5 +2.3 -0.2 +0.5 452 General merchandise stores....................... -0.2 +4.3 +0.2 +5.1 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... -1.5 -4.2 -0.2 -2.5 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... -1.0 +1.2 +1.5 +2.4 454 Nonstore retailers............................... -2.3 +6.1 +0.8 +6.5 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +0.2 +4.3 +0.4 +3.8 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1A of this report.

TABLE 2B. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--August 2008

Data not adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes. (Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*) Aug Jul 2008 2008 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Jul Aug Jun Jul Code 2008 2007 2008 2007 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... -0.3 -0.4 +1.5 +4.0 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... 0.0 +4.2 +1.7 +7.9 Retail .................................. -0.6 -1.1 +1.4 +4.0 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -1.5 -17.2 +0.7 -10.1 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ -1.5 -18.6 +0.5 -11.5 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +4.2 -8.3 +4.3 -5.2 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +3.0 -0.3 +1.9 +5.2 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -11.8 -8.3 -2.4 +3.0 445 Food & beverage stores........................... -0.5 +6.4 +4.7 +7.7 4451 Grocery stores.................................. -0.4 +6.4 +4.6 +7.6 446 Health & personal care stores.................... -0.6 +0.8 +1.6 +5.1 447 Gasoline stations................................ -4.6 +20.8 +3.2 +25.4 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +8.5 +0.6 +2.1 +3.5 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +23.0 +3.2 +0.6 +1.8 452 General merchandise stores....................... +3.7 +4.6 -1.4 +6.4 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +6.6 -4.4 -3.1 -1.0 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... -0.7 -1.4 +1.9 +5.4 454 Nonstore retailers............................... -1.3 +0.8 +1.8 +8.2 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +2.6 +5.8 +2.5 +4.0 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from not adjusted estimates provided in Table 1B of this report.
SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--AUGUST 2008 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Timothy Winters (301) 763-2713.

Survey Description

The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous month is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html.

Reliability of Estimates

Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.


(1) Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on estimates not adjusted for seasonal variation, or holiday, or trading-day differences. Medians are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months.

(2) These columns provide measures of the difference between the advance-to-preliminary and preliminary-to-final estimates of month-to-month change for the same pair of months as measured by the Advance sample and MRTS sample. The average and median differences are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months.

Note: Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html
o Current Quarter Retail E-Commerce Sales

Source: Retail Indicators Branch, a U.S. Census Bureau | Last Revised: September 12, 2008