TextTable

February 2005 Edition:

U.S. Export Commitments on Track with Export Forecast

Export Sales reports show that as of week 26 of the 2004/05 marketing year, accumulated exports of all cotton were 4.5 million running bales compared to 4.9 million last year. This is in line with the current USDA U.S. export forecast of 12.62 million bales (13.0 million 480 lb. bales). Accumulated exports to China are nearly 890,000 bales behind last year, while exports to western hemisphere countries are down nearly 220,000 bales. However, exports to all other Asian markets, except India with its record crop, are up significantly.

Total commitments for all cotton are 9.8 million running bales, compared to 9.7 million last marketing year at the same time. Higher carry over commitments at the beginning of 2004/05 (4.5 million bales compared to 3.0 million bales at the beginning of 2003/04) have offset slower sales seen during the first half of 04/05. The slower sales in 04/05 are largely due to the lower presence of China in the market so far this year. Outstanding sales to China are down by nearly 1.3 million bales from this time last year mainly because China made large early-season purchases last fall due to fears of a short crop. With China’s total imports in 2004/05 forecast up slightly from 03/04 and no expectation of a major decrease in the U.S. share of Chinese imports, sales and exports to China are expected to pick up dramatically.

With higher total commitments and lower accumulated exports, outstanding sales are up nearly 550,000 bales. Coupled with lower outstanding sales to China, outstanding sales other markets are up dramatically, non-China Asia up 1.1 million bales, Turkey up 450,000 bales and western hemisphere up 140,000 bales.

World and U.S. Cotton Situation and Outlook
Marketing Years 2002/03, 2003/04 and 2004/2005
1,000 480-Lb. Bales
	World				US
	2002/03	2003/04	2004/2005	% Change 2003/04 -2004/05	2002/03	2003/04	2004/2005	% Change 2003/04 -2004/05
Production	88,310	94,923	116,717	23.0%	17,209	18,255	23,006	26.0%
Imports	30,180	33,922	33,557	-1.1%	67	45	40	-11.1%
Use	98,557	98,473	105,803	7.4%	7,273	6,489	6,300	-2.9%
Exports	30,429	33,223	33,283	0.6%	11,900	13,759	13,000	-5.5%
Ending Stocks	38,223	38,547	46,735	31.5%	5,385	3,506	7,300	108.2%

Download Cotton Supply and Demand Database {.csv}

Download Circular {.pdf}

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Statistical tables contained in this circular may be viewed in Adobe Acrobat format ® {.pdf}.

Tables

Summary of Changes (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}

Table 1: World Cotton Supply, Use and Trade, 1999/2000-2004/2005 (1,000 metric tons) {.pdf}

Table 2: World Cotton Supply, Use and Trade, 1999/2000-2004/2005 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}

Table 3: FY 2002 GSM-102 and Supplier Credit Programs {.pdf}

Table 4: Area, Yield, and Production by Country 2003/2004-2004/2005 {.pdf}

Table 5: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2004/2005 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}

Table 5-A: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2004/2005 (1,000 metric tons) {.pdf}

Table 6: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country 2003/2004 (1,000 480-lb. bales) {.pdf}

Table 6-A: Cotton Supply & Distribution by Country, 2003/2004 (1,000 metric tons) {.pdf}

Table 7: Export Sales Summary {.pdf}

Table 8: Northern European Cotton and Adjusted World Price {.pdf}

Table 9: World Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization {.pdf}

Table 10: United States Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization {.pdf}

Table 11: Foreign Cotton Production, Yield, Supply, and Utilization {.pdf}

Statistical tables are available in Adobe Acrobat. You may need to GET the Acrobat reader.

Last modified: Tuesday, August 30, 2005

World and U.S. Cotton Situation and Outlook

Marketing Years 2002/03, 2003/04 and 2004/2005