Andrew was a small and ferocious
Cape Verde hurricane that wrought unprecedented economic devastation
along a path through the northwestern Bahamas, the southern Florida
peninsula, and south-central Louisiana. Damage in the United
States is estimated to be near 25 billion, making Andrew the
most expensive natural disaster in U.S. history 1.
The tropical cyclone struck southern Dade County, Florida, especially
hard, with violent winds and storm surges characteristic of a
category 4 hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson
Hurricane Scale, and with a central pressure (922 mb) that
is the third lowest this century for a hurricane at landfall
in the United States. In Dade County alone, the forces of Andrew
resulted in 15 deaths and up to one-quarter million people left
temporarily homeless. An additional 25 lives were lost in Dade
County from the indirect effects of Andrew 2.
The direct loss of life seems remarkably low considering the
destruction caused by this hurricane.
a. Synoptic History
Satellite pictures and upper-air
data indicate that Hurricane Andrew formed from a tropical wave
that crossed from the west coast of Africa to the tropical North
Atlantic Ocean on 14 August 1992. The wave moved westward at
about 20 kt, steered by a swift and deep easterly current on
the south side of an area of high pressure. The wave passed to
the south of the Cape Verde Islands on the following day. At
that point, meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
Tropical Satellite Analysis and Forecast (TSAF) unit and the
Synoptic
Analysis Branch (SAB) of the National
Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS)
found the wave sufficiently well-organized to begin classifying
the intensity of the system using the Dvorak (1984) analysis
technique.
Convection subsequently became more focused in a region of cyclonic
cloud rotation. Narrow spiral-shaped bands of clouds developed
around the center of rotation on 16 August. At 1800 UTC on the
16th (UTC precedes EDT by four hours), both the TSAF unit and
SAB calculated a Dvorak T-number of 2.0 and the "best track"
(Table 1 and Fig.
1 [85K GIF]) shows that the transition from tropical wave
to tropical depression took place at that time.
The depression was initially embedded in an environment of easterly
vertical wind shear. By midday on the 17th, however, the shear
diminished. The depression grew stronger and, at 1200 UTC 17
August, it became Andrew, the first Atlantic tropical storm of
the 1992 hurricane season. The tropical cyclone continued moving
rapidly on a heading which turned from west to west-northwest.
This course was in the general direction of the Lesser Antilles.
Between the 17th and 20th of August, the tropical storm passed
south of the center of the high pressure area over the eastern
Atlantic. Steering currents carried Andrew closer to a strong
upper-level low pressure system centered about 500 n mi to the
east-southeast of Bermuda and to a trough that extended southward
from the low for a few hundred miles. These currents gradually
changed and Andrew decelerated on a course which became northwesterly.
This change in heading spared the Lesser Antilles from an encounter
with Andrew. The change in track also brought the tropical storm
into an environment of strong southwesterly vertical wind shear
and quite high surface pressures to its north. Although the estimated
maximum wind speed of Andrew varied little then, a rather remarkable
evolution occurred.
Satellite images suggest that Andrew produced deep convection
only sporadically for several days, mainly in several bursts
of about 12 hours duration. Also, the deep convection did not
persist. Instead, it was stripped away from the low-level circulation
by the strong southwesterly flow at upper levels. Air
Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft investigated Andrew
and, on the 20th, found that the cyclone had degenerated to the
extent that only a diffuse low-level circulation center remained.
Andrew's central pressure rose considerably (Fig.
2 [87K GIF]). Nevertheless, the flight-level data indicated
that Andrew retained a vigorous circulation aloft. Wind speeds
near 70 kt were measured at an altitude of 1500 ft near a convective
band lying to the northeast of the low-level center. Hence, Andrew
is estimated on 20 August to have been a tropical storm with
40 kt surface winds and an astonishingly high central pressure
of 1015 mb (Figs. 2 and 3
[87K GIF]).
Significant changes in the large-scale environment near and downstream
from Andrew began by 21 August. Satellite imagery in the water
vapor channel indicated that the low aloft to the east-southeast
of Bermuda weakened and split. The bulk of the low opened into
a trough which retreated northward. That evolution decreased
the vertical wind shear over Andrew. The remainder of the low
dropped southward to a position just southwest of Andrew where
its circulation enhanced the upper-level outflow over the tropical
storm. At the same time, a strong and deep high pressure cell
formed near the U.S. southeast coast. A ridge built eastward
from the high into the southwestern Atlantic with its axis lying
just north of Andrew. The associated steering flow over the tropical
storm became easterly. Andrew turned toward the west, accelerated
to near 16 kt, and quickly intensified.
Andrew reached hurricane strength on the morning of 22 August,
thereby becoming the first Atlantic hurricane to form from a
tropical wave in nearly two years. An eye formed that morning
and the rate of strengthening increased. Just 36 hours later,
Andrew reached the borderline between a category 4 and 5 hurricane
and was at its peak intensity (Table 1).
From 0000 UTC on the 21st (when Andrew had a barely perceptible
low-level center) to 1800 UTC on the 23rd the central pressure
had fallen by 92 mb, down to 922 mb. A fall of 72 mb occurred
during the last 36 hours of that period and qualifies as rapid
deepening (Holliday and Thompson, 1979).
The region of high pressure held steady and drove Andrew nearly
due west for two and a half days beginning on the 22nd. Andrew
was a category 4 hurricane when its eye passed over northern
Eleuthera Island in the Bahamas late on the 23rd and then over
the southern Berry Islands in the Bahamas early on the 24th.
After leaving the Bahamas, Andrew continued moving westward toward
southeast Florida.
Andrew weakened when it passed over the western portion of the
Great Bahama Bank and the pressure rose to 941 mb. However, the
hurricane rapidly reintensified during the last few hours preceding
landfall when it moved over the Straits of Florida. During that
period, radar, aircraft and satellite data showed a decreasing
eye diameter and strengthening "eyewall" convection.
Aircraft and inland surface data Fig.
4 [121K GIF]) suggest that the deepening trend continued
up to and slightly inland of the coast. For example, the eye
temperature measured by the reconnaissance aircraft was at least
1-2C warmer at 1010 UTC (an hour after the eye made landfall)
than it was in the last "fix" about 15 n mi offshore
at 0804 UTC. These measurements suggest that the convection in
the eyewall, and the associated vertical circulation in the eye
and eyewall, became more vigorous as the storm moved onshore.
The radar data indicated that the convection in the northern
eyewall became enhanced with some strong convective elements
rotating around the eyewall in a counter-clockwise fashion as
the storm made landfall. Numerical models suggest that some enhancement
of convection can occur at landfall due to increased boundary-layer
convergence in the eyewall region. That situation appeared to
have occurred in Andrew. The enhanced convection in the north
eyewall probably resulted in strong subsidence in the eye on
the inside edge of the north eyewall. This likely contributed
to a displacement of the lowest surface pressure to the north
of the geometric center of the "radar eye" (cf., Fig. 4 and 6 [107K JPEG]). It
is estimated that the central pressure was 922 mb at landfall
near Homestead AFB, Florida at 0905 UTC (5:05 A.M. EDT) 24 August
(Fig. 4).
The maximum sustained surface wind speed (1-min average at 10
meters [about 33 ft] elevation) during landfall over Florida
is estimated at 125 kt (about 145 mph), with gusts at that elevation
to at least 150 kt (about 175 mph). The sustained wind speed
corresponds to a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson
Hurricane Scale. It should be noted that these wind speeds
are what is estimated to have occurred within the (primarily
northern) eyewall in an open environment such as at an airport,
at the standard 10-meter height. The wind experienced at other
inland sites was subject to complex interactions of the airflow
with trees, buildings, and other obstacles in its path. These
obstructions create a turbulent, frictional drag that generally
reduces the wind speed. However, they can also produce brief,
local accelerations of the wind immediately adjacent to the structures.
Hence, the wind speed experienced at a given location, such as
at a house in the core region of the hurricane, can vary significantly
around the structure, and cannot be specified with certainty.
The landfall intensity is discussed further in Section b.
Andrew moved nearly due westward when over land and crossed the
extreme southern portion of the Florida peninsula in about four
hours. Although the hurricane weakened about one category on
the Saffir/Simpson
Hurricane Scale during the transit over land, and the pressure
rose to about 950 mb, Andrew was still a major hurricane when
its eyewall passed over the extreme southwestern Florida coast.
The first of two cycles of modest intensification commenced when
the eye reached the Gulf of Mexico. Also, the hurricane continued
to move at a relatively fast pace while its track gradually turned
toward the west-northwest.
When Andrew reached the north-central Gulf of Mexico, the high
pressure system to its northeast weakened and a strong mid-latitude
trough approached the area from the northwest. Steering currents
began to change. Andrew turned toward the northwest and its forward
speed decreased to about 8 kt. The hurricane struck a sparsely
populated section of the south-central Louisiana coast with category
3 intensity at about 0830 UTC on the 26th. The landfall location
is about 20 n mi west-southwest of Morgan City.
Andrew weakened rapidly after landfall, to tropical storm strength
in about 10 hours and to depression status 12 hours later. During
this weakening phase, the cyclone moved northward and then accelerated
northeastward. Andrew and its remnants continued to produce heavy
rain that locally exceeded 10 inches near its track (Table
2b). By midday on the 28th, Andrew had begun to merge with
a frontal system over the mid-Atlantic states.
b. Meteorological Statistics
The best track intensities were
obtained from the data presented in Figs. 2,
3, 4,
and 5 (95K GIF). The first
two of those figures show the curves of Andrew's central pressure
and maximum sustained one-minute wind speed, respectively, versus
time, along with the observations on which they were based. The
figures contain relevant surface observations and intensity estimates
derived from analyses of satellite images performed by the TSAF
unit, SAB and the Air
Force Global Weather Central (USAF in figures). The aircraft
data came from reconnaissance flights by the U.S.
Air Force Reserve 815th Weather Reconnaissance Squadron based
at Keesler AFB, Mississippi.
Additional data were collected aboard a NOAA
aircraft.
Table 2 lists a selection of surface observations.
The anemometer at Harbour Island, near the northern end of Eleuthera
Island in the Bahamas, measured a wind speed of 120 kt for an
unknown period shortly after 2100 UTC on the 23rd. That wind
speed was the maximum that could be registered by the instrument.
Neither of the two conventional measures of hurricane intensity,
central barometric pressure and maximum sustained wind speed,
were observed at official surface weather stations in close proximity
to Andrew at landfall in Florida. Homestead Air Force Base and
Tamiami Airport discontinued routine meteorological observations
prior to receiving direct hits from the hurricane. Miami International
Airport was the next closest station, but it was outside of the
eyewall by about 5 nautical miles when Andrew's center passed
to the south of that airport.
To supplement the official information, requests for data were
made to the public through the local media. Remarkably, more
than 100 quantitative observations were received (see Figs. 4 and 5).
Many of the reports came from observers who vigilantly took readings
through frightening conditions including, in several instances,
the moment when their instruments and even their homes were destroyed.
Some of the unofficial observations were dismissed as unrealistic.
Others were rendered suspect or eliminated during follow-up inquiries
or analyses. The remainder, however, revealed a physically consistent
and reasonable pattern.
1. Minimum pressure over Florida
The final offshore "fix"
by the reconnaissance aircraft came at 0804 UTC and placed the
center of the hurricane only about 15 nautical miles, or roughly
one hour of travel time, from the mainland. A dropsonde indicated
a pressure of 932 mb at that time. The pressure had been falling
at the rate of about 2 mb per hour, but the increasing interaction
with land was expected to at least partially offset, if not reverse,
that trend. Hence, a landfall pressure within a few millibars
of 932 mb seemed reasonable.
Shortly after Andrew's passage, however, reports of minimum pressures
below 930 mb were received from the vicinity of Homestead, Florida
(Fig. 4). Several of the barometers
displaying the lowest pressures were subsequently tested in a
pressure chamber and calibrated by the Aircraft
Operations Center (AOC) of NOAA.
Two key observations came from a Mrs. Hall and Mr. Martens, sister
and brother. They rode out the storm in residences about one-quarter
mile apart. Mrs. Hall's home was built by her father and grandfather
in 1945 to be hurricane-proof. Although some of the windows broke,
the 22-inch thick concrete and coral rock walls held steady,
allowing her to observe her barometer in relative safety. The
AOC tests indicate
that the minimum pressure at her home was near 921 mb. The barometer
at her brother's home was judged a little more reliable and the
reading there was adjusted to 923 mb. Based on the observations
and an eastward extrapolation of the pressure pattern to the
coastline, Andrew's minimum pressure at landfall is estimated
to be 922 mb. This suggests that the trajectory of the dropsonde
deployed from the aircraft did not intersect the lowest pressure
within the eye.
In the United States, this century, only the Labor
Day (Keys') Storm in 1935 [103K GIF] (892 mb) and Hurricane
Camille in 1969 [122K GIF] (909 mb) had lower landfall central
pressures than Andrew (Hebert et al. 1992).
2. Maximum wind speed over Florida
The strongest winds associated
with Andrew on 24 August likely occurred in the hurricane's northern
eyewall. The relatively limited number of observations in that
area greatly complicates the task of establishing Andrew's maximum
sustained wind speed and peak gust at landfall in Florida. While
a universally accepted value for Andrew's wind speed at landfall
may prove elusive, there is considerable evidence supporting
an estimate of about 125 kt for the maximum sustained wind speed,
with gusts to at least 150 kt (Fig.
5).
The strongest reported sustained wind near the surface occurred
at the Fowey Rocks weather station at 0800 UTC (Fig.
5). The station sits about 11 n mi east of the shoreline
and, at that time, was within the northwest part of Andrew's
eyewall. The 0800 UTC data included a two-minute wind of 123
kt with a gust to 147 kt at a platform height of about 130 ft.
The U.S. National Data Buoy
Center used a boundary-layer model to convert the sustained
wind to a two-minute wind of 108 kt at 33 ft elevation. The peak
one-minute wind during that two-minute period at Fowey Rocks
might have been slightly higher than 108 kt.
It is unlikely that this point observation was so fortuitously
situated that it represents a sampling of the absolute strongest
wind. The Fowey Rocks log (not shown) indicates that the wind
speed increased through 0800 UTC. Unfortunately, Fowey Rocks
then ceased transmitting data, presumably because even stronger
winds disabled the instrumentation. (A subsequent visual inspection
indicated that the mast supporting the anemometer had become
bent 90 degrees from vertical.) Radar relectivity data suggests
that the most intense portion of Andrew's eyewall had not reached
Fowey Rocks by 0800 UTC and that the wind speed could have continued
to increase there for another 15 to 30 minutes. A similar conclusion
can be reached from the pressure analysis in Fig.
4 which indicates that the pressure at Fowey Rocks probably
fell by about another 20 mb from the 0800 UTC mark of 968 mb.
Reconnaissance aircraft provided wind data at a flight level
of about 10,000 ft. The maximum wind speed along 10 seconds of
flight track (often used by the NHC to represent a one-minute
wind speed at flight level) on the last pass prior to landfall
was 162 kt, with a spot wind speed of 170 kt observed. The 162
kt wind occurred at 0810 UTC in the eyewall region about 10 n
mi to the north of the center of the eye. Like the observation
from Fowey Rocks, the aircraft provided a series of "point"
observations (i.e., no lateral extent). Somewhat higher wind
speeds probably occurred elsewhere in the northern eyewall, a
little to the left and/or to the right of the flight track. A
wind speed at 10,000 ft is usually reduced to obtain a surface
wind estimate. Based on past operational procedures, the 162
kt flight-level wind is compatible with maximum sustained surface
winds of 125 kt.
One of the most important wind speed reports came from Tamiami
Airport, located about 9 n mi west of the shoreline. As mentioned
earlier, routine weather observations ended at the airport before
the full force of Andrew's (northern) eyewall winds arrived.
However, the official weather observer there, Mr. Scott Morrison,
remained on-station and continued to watch the wind speed dial.
Mr. Morrison notes that around 0845 UTC (0445 EDT) the wind speed
indicator "pegged" at a position a little beyond the
dial's highest marking of 100 kt, at a point that he estimates
corresponds to about 110 kt. (Subsequent tests of the wind speed
dials observed at the airport indicate that the needles peg at
about 105 kt and 108 kt, respectively). He recounts that the
needle was essentially fixed at that spot for three to five minutes,
and then fell back to 0 when the anemometer failed. Mr. Morrison's
observations have been closely corroborated by two other people.
He has also noted that the weather conditions deteriorated even
further after that time and were at their worst about 30 minutes
later. This information suggests that, in all likelihood, the
maximum sustained wind speed at Tamiami Airport significantly
exceeded 105 kt.
A number of the wind speeds reported by the public could not
be substantiated and are therefore excluded from Fig.
5. The reliability of some of the others suffer from problems
that include non-standard averaging periods and instrument exposures,
and equipment failures prior to the arrival of the strongest
winds.
The only measurement of a sustained wind in the southern eyewall
came from an anemometer on the mast of an anchored sailboat (see
Fig. 5). For at least 13 minutes
the anemometer there showed 99 kt, which was the maximum that
the readout could display. A small downward adjustment of the
speed should probably be applied because the instrument was sitting
17 m above the surface rather than at the standard height of
10 m. On the other hand, the highest one-minute wind speed during
that 13-minute period could have been quite a bit stronger than
99 kt. Again, there may have been stronger winds elsewhere in
the southern eyewall. For a westward-moving hurricane the wind
speed in the northern eyewall usually exceeds the wind speed
in the southern eyewall by about twice the forward speed of the
hurricane (Dunn and Miller 1964). In the case of Andrew, that
difference is about 32 kt, and suggests a maximum sustained wind
stronger than 130 kt.
Several indirect measures of the sustained wind speed are of
interest. First, a standard empirical relationship between central
pressure and wind speed (Kraft 1961) applied to 922 mb yields
around 135 kt. Second, the Dvorak technique classification performed
by the NHC Tropical Satellite Analysis and Forecast unit using
a 0900 UTC satellite image gives 127 kt. Also, an analysis of
the pressure pattern in Fig. 4
gives a maximum gradient wind of around 140 kt.
The strongest gust reported from near the surface occurred in
the northern eyewall a little more than a mile from the shoreline
at the home of Mr. Randy Fairbank. He observed a gust of 184
kt moments before portions of a windward wall failed, preventing
further observation. The hurricane also destroyed the anemometer.
To evaluate the accuracy of the instrument, three anemometers
of the type used by Mr. Fairbank were tested in a wind tunnel
at Virginia Polytechnic Institute
and State University. Although the turbulent nature of the
hurricane winds could not be replicated, the results of the wind
tunnel tests suggest that the gust Mr. Fairbank observed was
less than 184 kt and probably near 154 kt. Of course, stronger
gusts may have occurred there at a later time, or at another
site. Damage at that location was significantly less than the
damage to similar structures located about 2 miles south of this
neighborhood, implying even stronger winds than observed at this
location.
Strong winds also occurred outside of the eyewall, especially
in association with convective bands (Fig.
6). A peak gust to 139 kt was observed at a home near the
northern end of Dade County (Fig.
5) on an anemometer of the brand used by Mr. Fairbank. Applying
the reduction suggested by the wind tunnel tests to 139 kt yields
an estimate close to the 115 kt peak gust (a five-second average)
registered on a National Ocean Survey anemometer located not
far to the east, at the coast.
3. Storm surge
During the afternoon of 23 August,
Andrew crossed over the north end of the island of Eleuthera
in the Bahamas and generated significant storm surge flooding.
Two high water marks were recorded and referenced to mean sea
level. The first mark of 16 ft was recorded in a house in the
town of Little Bogue. The second mark of 23 ft was recorded in
a damaged house in the town of The Current several miles west
of Lower Bogue. Since this structure was located near the shoreline
it suggests that battering waves riding on top of the storm surge
helped to create this very high water mark.
During the morning hour of 24 August, Andrew generated storm
surge along shorelines of southern Florida (Fig.
7) (103K GIF). On the southeast Florida coast, peak storm
surge arrived near the time of high astronomical tide. The height
of the storm tide (the sum of the storm surge and astronomical
tide, referenced to mean sea level) ranged from 4 to 6 ft in
northern Biscayne bay increasing to a maximum value of 16.9 ft
at the Burger King International Headquarters, located on the
western shoreline in the center of the bay, and decreasing to
4 to 5 ft in southern Biscayne Bay. The observed storm tide values
on the Florida southwest coast ranged from 4 to 5 ft near Flamingo
to 6 to 7 ft near Goodland.
Storm tides in Louisiana were at least 8 ft (Table
2a) and caused flooding from Lake Borgne westward through
Vermillion Bay.
4. Tornadoes
There have been no confirmed
reports of tornadoes associated with Andrew over the Bahamas
or Florida. Funnel sightings, some unconfirmed, were reported
in the Florida counties of Glades, Collier and Highlands, where
Andrew crossed in daylight. In Louisiana, one tornado occurred
in the city of Laplace several hours prior to Andrew's landfall.
That tornado killed 2 people and injured 32 others. Tornadoes
in the Ascension, Iberville, Baton Rouge, Pointe Coupee, and
Avoyelles parishes of Louisiana reportedly did not result in
casualties. Numerous reports of funnel clouds were received by
officials in Mississippi and tornadoes were suspected to have
caused damage in several Mississippi counties. In Alabama, the
occurrence of two damaging tornadoes has been confirmed over
the mainland while another tornado may have hit Dauphin Island.
As Andrew and its remnants moved northeastward over the eastern
states, it continued to produce severe weather. For example,
several damaging tornadoes in Georgia late on 27 August were
attributed to Andrew.
5. Rainfall
Andrew dropped sufficient rain
to cause local floods even though the hurricane was relatively
small and generally moved rather fast. Rainfall totals in excess
of seven inches were recorded in southeast Florida, Louisiana,
and Mississippi (Table 2b). Rainfall amounts
near five inches occurred in several neighboring states. Hammond,
Louisiana reported the highest total, 11.92 inches.
c. Casualty and Damage Statistics
Table 3 lists a count of casualties and damages
associated with Andrew. The number of deaths directly attributed
to Andrew is 26. The additional indirect loss of life brought
the death toll to 65 (see footnote 2). A
combination of good hurricane preparedness and evacuation programs
likely helped minimize the loss of life. Nevertheless, the fact
that no lives were lost in the United States due to storm surge
is viewed as a fortunate aberration.
Table 3a reveals that more than one-half
of the fatlities were indirect. Many of the indirect deaths occurred
during the "recovery phase" following Andrew's passage.
Damage is estimated at $25 billion. Andrew's impact on southern
Dade County, Florida was extreme from the Kendall district southward
through Homestead and Florida City, to near Key Largo (Table
3b). Andrew reportedly destroyed 25,524 homes and damaged
101,241 others. The Dade County Grand Jury reported that ninety
percent of all mobile homes in south Dade County were totally
destroyed. In Homestead, more than 99% (1167 of 1176) of all
mobile homes were completely destroyed. The Miami Herald reported
$0.5 billion in losses to boats in southeast Florida.
The most devasted areas correspond closely in location to the
regions overspread by Andrew's eyewall and its accompanying core
of destructive winds and, near the coastline, decimating storm
surges. Flight-level data about an hour prior to landfall places
the radius of maximum wind at 11 n mi (in the northern eyewall
at 10,000 ft altitude). The radius of maximum wind at the surface
was likely a little less than 11 n mi. (Figure
6) displays a radar reflectivity pattern (similar to rainfall
intensity) about 30 minutes prior to landfall, superimposed on
a map of southern Florida, from which it can be seen that the
average diameter of the "radar" eye was about 11 n
mi at landfall.)
The damage to Louisiana is estimated at $1 billion.
Damage in the Bahamas has been estimated at $0.25 billion.
Andrew whipped up powerful seas which extensively damaged many
offshore structures, including the artificial reef system of
southeast Florida. For example, the Belzona Barge is a 215 ft,
350-ton barge that, prior to Andrew, was sitting in 68 ft of
water on the ocean floor. One thousand tons of concrete from
the old Card Sound bridge lay on the deck. The hurricane moved
the barge 700 ft to the west (50-100 tons of concrete remain
on deck) and removed several large sections of steel plate sidings.
Damage in the Gulf of Mexico is preliminarily estimated at $0.5
billion. Ocean Oil reported the following in the Gulf of Mexico:
13 toppled platforms, five leaning platforms, 21 toppled satellites,
23 leaning satellites, 104 incidents of structural damage, seven
incidents of pollution, two fires, and five drilling wells blown
off location.
Hurricanes are notoriously capricious. Andrew was a compact system.
A little larger system, or one making landfall just a few nautical
miles further to the north, would have been catastrophic for
heavily populated, highly commercialized and no less vulnerable
areas to the north. That area includes downtown Miami, Miami
Beach, Key Biscayne and Fort Lauderdale. Andrew also left the
highly vulnerable New Orleans region relatively unscathed.
d. Forecast and Warning Critique
Track forecast errors by the
NHC and by the suite of track prediction models are given in
Table 4. On average, the NHC errors were
about 30% smaller than the current 10-year average. The most
significant changes in Andrew's track and intensity (see Fig. 1, Table
1) were generally well anticipated (noted in NHC's Tropical
Cyclone Discussions) and the forecast tracks generally lie close
to the best track. However, the rate of Andrew's westward acceleration
over the southwestern Atlantic was greater than initially forecast.
In addition, the NHC forecast a rate of strengthening that was
less than what occurred during Andrew's period of rapid deepening.
Several of the dynamic track models had stellar performances
during this hurricane. The Aviation Model and a tracking routine
that follows a simulated hurricane vortex (AVNO) performed especially
well. However, this was the first storm for which AVNO output
was available to NHC forecasters. Hence, its operational reliability
was not established. The GFDL
and QLM models also had small errors. It should be pointed out,
however, that the NHC works on a six-hourly forecast cycle and
that the models mentioned above are run just once per 12 hours.
Moreover, the output from these models becomes available to forecasters
no earlier than the following six-hour forecast cycle.
Historically, the NHC90 statistical-dynamical model has been
the most accurate of NHC's track guidance models. The NHC90 errors
were rather large during Andrew. Because the NHC90 uses output
from the Aviation Model it is possible that the recent changes
in the latter model may be responsible for the NHC90's degraded
performance.
Table 5 lists a chronology of watches and
warnings issued by the National Hurricane Center and the Government
of the Bahamas. The associated lead times (based on landfall
of the eye) are given in Table 6.
Massive evacuations were ordered in Florida and Louisiana as
the likelihood of Andrew making landfall in those regions increased
(Table 7). About 55,000 people left the
Florida Keys. Evacuations were ordered for 517,000 people in
Dade County, 300,000 in Broward County, 315,000 in Palm Beach
County and 15,000 in St. Lucie County. For counties further west
in Florida, evacuation totals exceeding one thousand people are
Collier (25,000), Glades (4,000) and Lee (2,500).
It is estimated that 1,250,000 people evacuated from parishes
in southeastern and south-central Louisiana.
About 250,000 people evacuated from Orange and Jefferson Counties
in Texas.
The winds in Hurricane Andrew wreaked tremendous structural damage,
particularly in southern Dade County. Notwithstanding, the loss
of life in Hurricane Andrew, while very unfortunate, was far
less than has previously occurred in hurricanes of comparable
strength. Historical data suggests that storm surge is the greatest
threat to life. Some lives were likely saved by the evacuation
along the coastline of southeast Florida. The relatively small
loss of life there serves as testimony to the success and importance
of coordinated programs of hurricane preparedness.
References
- Dunn, G. E. and B. I. Miller,
1964: Atlantic Hurricanes.Louisiana
State University Press, Baton Rouge, LA. 326 pp.
- Dvorak, V. F., 1984: Tropical
cyclone intensity analysis using satellite data. NOAA Technical
Report NESDIS 11, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
U. S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC, 47 pp.
- Hebert, P. J., J. D. Jarrell,
and M. Mayfield, 1992: The deadliest, costliest, and most intense
hurricane of this century (and other frequently requested facts).
NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS NHC-31, National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC,
40 pp.
- Holliday, C. R., and A. H.
Thompson, 1979: Climatological characteristics of rapidly intensifying
typhoons. Mon. Wea. Rev., 107, 1022-1034.
- Kraft, R. H., 1961: The hurricane's
central pressure and highest wind. Mar. Wea. Log., 5, 157.
Acknowledgments
Much of the data in this summary
was provided by NWS WSFO/WSO reports from MIA,
EYW, MLB, PBI, TBW,
SIL, BTR, LCH,
JAN, BHM,
MOB,
MEM,
BPT and ATL.
Sam Houston of the AOML
Hurricane Research Division collected additional observations.
Jerry Kranz of the NOAA
Aircraft Operations Center performed the barometer calibrations.
Martin Nelson provided
a summary on the damages to artificial reefs adjacent to the
southeast Florida coast. Joan David, Stan Goldenberg and Mike
Black developed several of the figures. Sandra Potter helped
prepare the manuscript.
[1] When indirect and continuing costs
are considered, the total could ultimately rise to $40 billion,
according to a personal communication from William E. Bailey,
Co-Director, Hurricane Insurance Information Center. Mr. Bailey
indicates that Floridians filed more than 725,000 insurance claims
related to Andrew.
[2] Based on data from the Dade County
Medical Examiner.
The Miami Herald reported on 31 January
1993 that it could relate at least 43 additional (indirect) deaths
in Dade County to Hurricane Andrew.
Table 1. Preliminary
best track, Hurricane Andrew, 16-28 August, 1992.
Date/Time
(UTC) |
Position |
Pressure
(mb) |
Wind Speed
(kt) |
Stage |
|
Lat. (°N) |
Lon. (°W) |
|
16/1800 |
10.8 |
35.5 |
1010 |
25 |
Tropical Depression |
|
17/0000 |
11.2 |
37.4 |
1009 |
30 |
" " |
|
0600 |
11.7 |
39.6 |
1008 |
30 |
" " |
|
1200 |
12.3 |
42.0 |
1006 |
35 |
Tropical Storm |
|
1800 |
13.1 |
44.2 |
1003 |
35 |
" " |
|
18/0000 |
13.6 |
46.2 |
1002 |
40 |
" " |
|
0600 |
14.1 |
48.0 |
1001 |
45 |
" " |
|
1200 |
14.6 |
49.9 |
1000 |
45 |
" " |
|
1800 |
15.4 |
51.8 |
1000 |
45 |
" " |
|
19/0000 |
16.3 |
53.5 |
1001 |
45 |
" " |
|
0600 |
17.2 |
55.3 |
1002 |
45 |
" " |
|
1200 |
18.0 |
56.9 |
1005 |
45 |
" " |
|
1800 |
18.8 |
58.3 |
1007 |
45 |
" " |
|
20/0000 |
19.8 |
59.3 |
1011 |
40 |
" " |
|
0600 |
20.7 |
60.0 |
1013 |
40 |
" " |
|
1200 |
21.7 |
60.7 |
1015 |
40 |
" " |
|
1800 |
22.5 |
61.5 |
1014 |
40 |
" " |
|
21/0000 |
23.2 |
62.4 |
1014 |
45 |
" " |
|
0600 |
23.9 |
63.3 |
1010 |
45 |
" " |
|
1200 |
24.4 |
64.2 |
1007 |
50 |
" " |
|
1800 |
24.8 |
64.9 |
1004 |
50 |
" " |
|
22/0000 |
25.3 |
65.9 |
1000 |
55 |
" " |
|
0600 |
25.6 |
67.0 |
994 |
60 |
" " |
|
1200 |
25.8 |
68.3 |
981 |
70 |
Hurricane |
|
1800 |
25.7 |
69.7 |
969 |
80 |
" |
|
23/0000 |
25.6 |
71.1 |
961 |
90 |
" |
|
0600 |
25.5 |
72.5 |
947 |
105 |
" |
|
1200 |
25.4 |
74.2 |
933 |
120 |
" |
|
1800 |
25.4 |
75.8 |
922 |
135 |
" |
|
24/0000 |
25.4 |
77.5 |
930 |
125 |
" |
|
0600 |
25.4 |
79.3 |
937 |
120 |
" |
|
1200 |
25.6 |
81.2 |
951 |
110 |
" |
|
1800 |
25.8 |
83.1 |
947 |
115 |
" |
|
25/0000 |
26.2 |
85.0 |
943 |
115 |
" |
|
0600 |
26.6 |
86.7 |
948 |
115 |
" |
|
1200 |
27.2 |
88.2 |
946 |
115 |
" |
|
1800 |
27.8 |
89.6 |
941 |
120 |
" |
|
26/0000 |
28.5 |
90.5 |
937 |
120 |
" |
|
0600 |
29.2 |
91.3 |
955 |
115 |
" |
|
1200 |
30.1 |
91.7 |
973 |
80 |
" |
|
1800 |
30.9 |
91.6 |
991 |
50 |
Tropical Storm |
|
27/0000 |
31.5 |
91.1 |
995 |
35 |
" " |
|
0600 |
32.1 |
90.5 |
997 |
30 |
Tropical Depression |
|
1200 |
32.8 |
89.6 |
998 |
30 |
" " |
|
1800 |
33.6 |
88.4 |
999 |
25 |
" " |
|
28/0000 |
34.4 |
86.7 |
1000 |
20 |
" " |
|
0600 |
35.4 |
84.0 |
1000 |
20 |
" " |
|
1200 |
|
|
|
|
Merging with
frontal system |
|
|
|
23/1800 |
25.4 |
75.8 |
922 |
135 |
Minimum Pressure |
|
24/0905 |
25.5 |
80.3 |
922 |
125 |
" " |
|
Landfall: |
|
northern Eleuthera Island, Bahamas |
|
23/2100 |
25.4 |
76.6 |
923 |
130 |
Hurricane |
|
southern Berry Islands, Bahamas |
|
24/0100 |
25.4 |
77.8 |
931 |
125 |
Hurricane |
|
Homestead Air Force Base, Florida |
|
24/0905 |
25.5 |
80.3 |
922 |
125 |
Hurricane |
|
Point Chevreuil, Louisiana (20 n mi west-southwest of Morgan
City) |
|
26/0830 |
29.6 |
91.5 |
956 |
105 |
Hurricane |
Table 2a. Hurricane Andrew
selected surface observations. Nonstandard wind speed averaging
periods and anemometer heights are indicated where known.
|
|
Minimum sea-level
pressure |
Maximum surface wind speed
(kt) |
|
|
Location |
Pressure
(mb) |
Date/time
(UTC) |
1-minute
average |
Peak
gust |
Date/timea
(UTC) |
Storm
surgeb
(ft) |
Storm
tideb
(ft) |
Rain
(storm total)
(in) |
|
Bahamas |
|
Harbour Island |
935.0c |
23/2100 |
|
120c,d |
23/shortly after 2100 |
|
|
|
|
Nassau |
999.0c |
24/0000 |
80 |
100 |
24/0025 |
|
|
|
|
The Current |
|
|
|
|
|
23 |
|
|
Lower Bogue
(1 n mi inland) |
|
|
|
|
|
16 |
|
|
|
|
|
Florida East Coast and Keys |
|
Tamiami (TMB) |
988.0c,d |
|
110 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Miami WSFO/NHC |
982.0c,d |
24/0900 |
100c-e |
142c-e |
24/0850 |
|
|
|
Joe Bay
(25.2°N 80.5°W) |
|
|
82j,k |
|
24/0938 |
|
|
|
|
NOAA/AOML |
984.0 |
|
|
87c,d |
|
|
|
|
|
Miami I. Arpt. (MIA) |
992.6 |
24/0900 |
75f |
100 |
24/0950 |
|
|
2.04 |
|
Miami Beach DARDC |
|
|
65c |
92c,d |
24/0816 |
|
|
|
MIA4
(25.775°N 80.284°W) |
|
|
63o,p,c |
|
24/0901 |
|
|
|
|
Haulover NOS NGWLMS |
1004.0 |
|
58c |
115 |
24/0900 |
|
|
|
Goodyear Blimp Base
(Pompano) |
|
|
|
78-87e |
24/0900-0915f |
|
|
|
MIA1
(25.797°N 80.291°W) |
|
|
56o,p,c |
81c |
24/0822 |
|
|
|
MIA2
(25.828°N 80.294°W) |
|
|
53o,p,c |
|
24/0845 |
|
|
|
Ochopee
(25.9°N 81.3°W) |
|
|
47j,l,c,e |
|
24/1232 |
|
|
|
MIA6
(25.801°N 80.312°W) |
|
|
46o,p,c |
|
24/0826,
0856,0858 |
|
|
|
S-140A
(26.2°N 80.8°W) |
|
|
46m,n |
|
24/1122 |
|
|
|
Manatee Bay
(25.2°N 80.4°W) |
|
|
45j,k,c,e |
|
24/1038 |
|
|
|
MIA3
(25.795°N 80.248°W) |
|
|
40o,p,c |
|
24/0845,
0859 |
|
|
|
Monroe EOC
(24.8°N 80.9°W) |
|
|
31 |
40c |
24/1028 |
|
|
|
|
Fort Lauderdale (FLL) |
|
|
|
53c,d |
|
|
|
|
|
Palm Beach (PBI) |
1010.8 |
24/0259,
0420 |
43 |
51 |
24/1033 |
|
|
|
|
Palm Beach ASOS |
|
|
42 |
|
24/1036 |
|
|
|
|
Key West WSO (EYW) |
1010.1 |
24/1400 |
25 |
37 |
24/1614 |
|
|
0.33 |
Miles City
(26.2°N 81.2°W) |
|
|
24j,l,c,e |
|
24/1331 |
|
|
|
|
Patrick AFB (COF) |
1016.2 |
24/0955 |
22 |
31 |
24/0731 |
|
|
|
HQ
(26.6°N 80.1°W) |
|
|
22m,n,c,e |
|
24/0929 |
|
|
|
Marathon
(24.7°N 81.1°W) |
|
|
18o,c |
26 |
24/1155 |
|
|
|
S-5A
(26.6°N 80.4°W) |
|
|
16m,n |
|
24/1242 |
|
|
|
|
Melbourne (MLB) |
1016.3 |
24/0950 |
15 |
21 |
24/1151 |
|
|
|
|
Orlando (MCO) |
1016.9 |
24/0950 |
|
30 |
24/1850 |
|
|
|
|
NASA Shuttle (X68) |
1016.9 |
24/0855 |
11 |
23 |
24/1755 |
|
|
|
|
Titusville (TIX) |
1017.9 |
24/1053 |
8 |
14 |
24/1149 |
|
|
0.80c |
|
East Perrine |
|
|
|
|
|
16.9 (see Fig. 4) |
|
|
|
|
|
Florida West Coast |
|
Collier County (EOC) |
|
|
|
87e |
24/ |
|
|
|
|
Captiva Fire Station |
|
|
|
63 |
|
|
|
|
Marco Island
(26.0°N 81.7°W) |
|
|
34c,d,o |
|
24/1220 |
|
|
|
|
Fort Myers (RSW) |
1010.2 |
24/1347,
1446 |
30 |
45 |
24/1446,
1547 |
|
|
0.56 |
|
Cape Coral |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Glades County (EOC) |
|
|
|
44 |
24/between 1100 and 1200 |
|
|
|
|
Clrwtr./St. P. Arpt. |
|
|
30 |
40 |
24/1625 |
|
|
|
|
Goodland |
|
|
|
|
|
6.0g |
|
|
|
Everglades City |
|
|
|
|
|
6.0g |
|
|
|
Fort Myers Beach |
|
|
|
|
|
2.0 |
|
|
|
Venice |
|
|
|
|
|
1.8 |
|
|
|
Anna Marie Island |
|
|
|
|
|
1.5 |
|
|
|
Homosassa |
|
|
|
|
|
1.5 |
|
|
|
Gulf Harbors |
|
|
|
|
|
1.5 |
|
|
|
Indian Rocks Beach |
|
|
|
|
|
1.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
Louisiana |
|
Morgan City (P42) |
|
|
80e |
94e |
|
|
|
|
|
Baton Rouge (BTR) |
996.5 |
26/1427 |
42 |
61 |
26/1452 |
|
|
5.70 |
|
New Orleans (MSY) |
1006.6 |
26/0805 |
39 |
57 |
26/0950 |
|
|
5.70 |
|
Bayou Bienvenue |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6.28 |
|
Salt Point AMOS (P92) |
|
|
40 |
72 |
26/0728 |
|
|
|
|
Lafayette (LFT) |
990.5 |
26/1250 |
46 |
62 |
26/1057 |
|
|
5.51 |
|
Lake Charles (LCH) |
1008.5 |
|
21 |
34 |
26/2152 |
|
|
0.05 |
|
Berwick Fire Stn. |
|
|
83e |
104e |
|
|
|
|
|
Jeanerette |
975.0 |
|
71 |
78c |
|
|
|
|
|
Jeanerette |
|
|
67 |
75 |
26/0845 |
|
|
|
|
Near Brusly |
990.2 |
26/1337 |
69 |
90c |
26/1310 |
|
|
5.05 |
|
Lafayette Courthouse |
|
|
|
90e |
|
|
|
|
Mooring 17
(29.2°N 92.0°W) |
994.9 |
26/0930 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cocodrie |
|
|
|
|
|
|
8.0 |
|
Burns Point
(St. Mary Parish) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
6.8h |
|
|
Bayou Dupre |
|
|
|
|
|
|
6.5 |
|
|
Bayou Bienvenue |
|
|
|
|
|
|
6.3 |
|
|
NWS HANDAR east N. Orleans |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5.6 |
|
|
Port Fourchon |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5.0h |
|
|
N end of causeway |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.9 |
|
|
Industrial canal |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.4 |
|
|
Marina |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.3 |
|
|
Rigolets |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.2 |
|
|
Grand Isle |
|
|
|
|
|
|
3.5h |
|
|
|
|
Alabama |
|
Huntsville (HSV) |
1000.3 |
27/2250 |
22 |
36 |
27/1742 |
|
|
0.92 |
|
Birmingham (BHM) |
1001.7 |
27/2215 |
19 |
35 |
27/1640 |
|
|
1.77 |
|
Montgomery (MGM) |
1008.8 |
27/2045 |
23 |
31 |
27/2307 |
|
|
1.55 |
|
Mobile (MOB) |
1010.1 |
27/2051 |
26 |
35 |
25/1844 |
|
|
0.64 |
|
Mobile State Docks |
|
|
|
|
|
2.6 |
3.5 |
|
|
Dauphin Island |
|
|
|
|
|
|
6.0 |
|
|
|
|
Georgia |
|
Atlanta (ATL) |
1005.4 |
28/0400 |
|
39 |
27/2039 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mississippi |
|
Jackson (JAN) |
998.6 |
26/0750 |
28 |
49 |
27/0219 |
|
|
4.79 |
|
Tupelo (TUP) |
|
|
24 |
36 |
27/2000 |
|
|
1.86 |
|
Meridian (MEI) |
1004.4 |
|
25 |
48 |
27/0945 |
|
|
5.29 |
|
State Port (Gulfport) |
|
|
|
39 |
27/1951 |
|
|
|
|
Bay St. Louis |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.5f |
|
|
|
|
Texas |
|
Port Arthur (BPT) |
1011.5 |
26/1000 |
22 |
30 |
26/1953 |
|
|
|
|
Sabine Pass |
|
|
|
|
|
1.1 |
1.3 |
|
|
|
|
Ship reports |
OYGK2
(29.5°N 80.6°W) |
|
|
60 |
|
25/1200 |
|
|
|
ELLE2
(19.4°N 56.6°W) |
1013.5 |
19/1500 |
35 |
|
19/1500 |
|
|
|
C6KD
(28.1°N 79.2°W) |
1015.5 |
24/0600 |
35 |
|
24/0600 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gulf of Mexico platformsc,e |
SS 198G
(28.2°N 92.0°W) |
|
|
78 |
100 |
26/0330 |
|
|
|
EC 83H
(28.2°N 92.0°W) |
|
|
46 |
49 |
26/0330 |
|
|
|
EC 42B
(29.5°N 92.8°W) |
|
|
38 |
88 |
26/0430 |
|
|
|
SM 136B
(28.2°N 92.0°W) |
|
|
38 |
44 |
25/2230 |
|
|
|
a Time of 1-minute wind speed unless only gust
is given.
b Storm surge is water height above normal tide level.
Storm tide is water height relative to National Geodetic Vertical
Datum (NGVD) which is defined as mean sea level in 1929.
c A more extreme value may have occurred.
d Equipment became inoperable after this measurement.
e Non-standard elevation.
f Estimated.
g Above Mean Low Water.
h Above Mean Water Level.
i Subsequent laboratory tests at the NHC indicate
the the needles on the two wind dials observed at Tamiami Airport
"peg" at about 105 and 108 kt, respectively.
j Department of Interior.
k 15-minute average.
l 10-minute average.
m South Florida Management District.
n 5-minute average.
o Federal Aviation Administration.
p Low-level wind shear system at several MIA locations,
30-second average, continous data until 24/0945; no data for
MIA5.
q Anemometer height of 7.1 meters.
|
Table 2b. Selected rainfall
totals associated with Hurricane Andrew, August 1992. *
indicates estimate.
|
Location |
Total Rain (in) |
|
Location |
Total Rain (in) |
|
Florida: |
|
S-124 (Broward County) |
7.79 |
|
Everglades Park (Collier County) |
* 4.50 |
|
S-21A (Dade County) |
7.41 |
|
S-18C (Dade County) |
4.48 |
|
S-20G (Dade County) |
5.19 |
|
S-20F (Dade County) |
4.12 |
|
S-37A (Broward County) |
5.14 |
|
Marco Island |
* 3.50 |
|
S-39 (Broward/Palm Beach Counties) |
5.12 |
|
S-308 (Lake Okeechobee area) |
3.47 |
|
S-80 (Martin-St. Lucie) |
4.94 |
|
Cudjoe Key |
2.02 |
|
Louisiana: |
|
Hammond |
11.92 |
|
Butte La Rose |
7.90 |
|
Robert |
11.02 |
|
Ponchatoula |
7.54 |
|
Amite |
10.36 |
|
Mt. Herman |
7.50 |
|
Morgan City |
9.31 |
|
Franklin |
7.03 |
|
Manchac |
8.75 |
|
WSFO Slidell |
5.06 |
|
Jeanerette |
7.96 |
|
Jena 4WSW |
4.42 |
|
Alabama: |
|
Aliceville |
4.40 |
|
WRTA1 Wright |
2.89 |
|
Tuscaloosa |
3.60 |
|
CBTA1 Colbert |
2.75 |
|
MRGA1 Morgan |
3.46 |
|
AKDA1 Lexington |
2.66 |
|
MRZA1 Mount Roszell |
3.21 |
|
OAKA1 Oakland |
2.62 |
|
CDCA1 Red Bay Creek |
2.90 |
|
|
|
Georgia: |
|
Hurst |
5.24 |
|
SCHG1 Suches G. Creek |
3.32 |
|
Mountain City |
4.60 |
|
TUSG1 Titus |
3.13 |
|
Burton |
4.31 |
|
Tallulah |
3.05 |
|
Clayton |
4.30 |
|
Jasper |
2.67 |
|
Nacoochee Pwr |
3.83 |
|
BRDG1 Blue Ridge Dam |
2.65 |
|
Helen |
3.40 |
|
EPWG1 Epworth H. Store |
2.64 |
|
Kentucky: |
|
BLWK2 |
2.56 |
|
|
|
Mississippi: |
|
Sumrall |
9.30 |
|
Vicksburg |
5.95 |
|
Pelahatchie (gage) |
8.20 |
|
McComb |
5.93 |
|
Yazoo City |
7.63 |
|
Ofahoma |
5.82 |
|
Crystal Springs |
7.24 |
|
Bay St. Louis |
5.72 |
|
Pelahatchie (co-op) |
7.07 |
|
White Oak |
5.65 |
|
Collins |
7.04 |
|
Forest |
5.59 |
|
Union Church |
7.04 |
|
Liberty |
5.59 |
|
Brookhaven |
7.02 |
|
Goshen Springs |
5.52 |
|
Mize |
6.71 |
|
Port Gibson |
5.51 |
|
Rockport |
6.36 |
|
Meadville |
5.45 |
|
Monticello |
6.36 |
|
Tylertown |
5.38 |
|
Booneville |
6.30 |
|
Columbia |
5.32 |
|
Good Hope |
6.14 |
|
Philadelphia |
5.06 |
|
North Carolina: |
|
HDSN7 Highlands |
4.68 |
|
RMNN7 Rosman |
2.62 |
|
WLGN7 F-Wallace Gap |
2.73 |
|
|
|
Tennessee: |
|
ELKT1 Elkton |
3.80 |
|
LNVT1 Lynnville |
2.97 |
|
WNBT1 Waynesboro |
3.64 |
|
PICT1 Pickwick Dam |
2.95 |
|
GEOT1 Georgetown |
3.43 |
|
CLET1 Cleveland |
2.91 |
|
IRCT1 Iron City-S.C. |
3.33 |
|
CLBT1 Columbia |
2.80 |
|
BGLT1 Big Lick |
3.25 |
|
DYNT1 Dime |
2.74 |
|
CBOT1 Crab Orchard |
3.07 |
|
LEWT1 Lewisburg |
2.58 |
|
CLLT1 Collinwood |
3.07 |
|
CSV Crossville Arpt. |
2.57 |
|
PSKT1 Pulaski |
3.03 |
|
PKVT1 Pikeville |
2.50 |
Table 2c. Hurricane Andrew
selected NDBC observations, August 1992.
|
|
|
Minimum sea-level
pressure |
Maximum wind speed a
(kt) |
|
Platform |
Date/time |
Location
(deg) |
Pressure
(mb) |
Date/time
(UTC) |
average |
Peak
gust |
|
Fowey Rocks C-MAN FWYF1 |
24/0800 |
25.6N 80.1W |
967.5 b,c |
24/0800 |
123 b,c |
147 b,c |
|
Bullwinkle Platform BUSL1 |
25/2225 |
27.9N 90.9W |
998.5 |
25/2300 |
52 |
63 b |
|
Molasses Reef C-MAN MLRF1 |
24/1000 |
25.0N 80.4W |
998.5 |
24/0900 |
48 |
59 |
|
Eastern Gulf Buoy 42003 |
25/0250 |
25.9N 85.9W |
997.4 |
25/0400 |
45 |
63 |
|
Grand Isle C-MAN GDIL1 |
25/2200 |
29.2N 90.0W |
1005.2 |
25/2300 |
48 |
73 |
|
Southwest Pass C-MAN BURL1 |
25/2100 |
28.9N 89.4W |
1006.1 |
25/2200 |
56 |
80 |
|
Sombrero Key C-MAN SMKF1 |
24/1130 |
24.6N 81.2W |
1007.7 |
24/1100 |
34 |
42 |
|
Lena Platform C-MAN LNEL1 |
|
28.2N 89.1W |
1007.7 |
25/1600 |
|
|
|
Eleuthera Buoy 41016 |
24/0040 |
24.6N 76.5W |
1007.9 |
23/2040 |
29 |
35 b |
|
Sand Key C-MAN SANF1 |
24/1600 |
24.5N 81.9W |
1010.2 |
24/1100,1400 |
30 |
43 b |
|
Central Gulf Buoy 42001 |
25/1650 |
25.9N 89.7W |
1010.8 |
25/0950 |
24 |
29 |
|
Settlement Point C-MAN SPGF1 |
24/0500 |
26.7N 79.0W |
1012.7 |
24/0600 |
38 |
47 |
|
Buoy 42007 |
25/1850 |
30.1N 88.8W |
1013.5 |
25/2250 |
30 |
46 |
|
Dauphin Island C-MAN DPIA1 |
25/2100 |
30.2N 88.1W |
1016.1 |
26/0000 |
32 |
46 |
a NOAA buoys report hourly an 8-min average wind.
C-MAN station reports are 2-min average winds at the top of the
hour and 10-min averages at the other times. Contact NDBC
for additional details.
b A more extreme value may have occurred.
c Equipment became inoperable shortly after observation.
|
Table 3a. Deaths and
damages incurred in association with Hurricane Andrew. Based,
in part, on reports from the Dade County Medical Examiner and
Louisiana Office of Public Health for their respective jurisdictions.
|
|
Deaths |
|
Damage
($ Billion) |
|
|
Direct |
Indirect |
|
|
Bahamas |
|
3 |
1 |
|
0.25 |
|
Florida: |
|
15 |
29 |
|
25 |
|
Dade County |
|
15 |
25 |
|
25 |
|
Broward County |
|
0 |
3 |
|
0.1 |
|
Monroe County |
|
0 |
1 |
|
0.131 |
|
Collier County |
|
0 |
0 |
|
0.03 |
|
Louisiana: |
|
8 |
9 |
|
1 |
|
St. John the Baptist Parish |
|
2 |
0 |
|
|
|
Offshore |
|
6 |
0 |
|
|
|
Lafayette Parish |
|
0 |
2 |
|
0.017 |
|
Vermillion Parish |
|
0 |
0 |
|
0.001 |
|
Iberville Parish |
|
0 |
1 |
|
|
|
Terrebonne Parish |
|
0 |
3 |
|
|
|
Orleans Parish |
|
0 |
1 |
|
|
|
Plaquemines Parish |
|
0 |
1 |
|
|
|
Iberia Parish |
|
0 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
Georgia |
|
|
|
|
0.001 |
|
|
|
Total |
|
26 |
39 |
|
26 |
Note: The Miami Herald reported
on 31 January 1993 that it could relate at least 43 additional
(indirect) deaths in Dade County to Hurricane Andrew.
Table 3b. Damages in
southeast Florida associated with Hurricane Andrew.
|
Item |
Loss ($ Billion) |
Notes |
|
1. Common insured private property |
15.0 |
From American Insurance Services Group, Inc., property February
1993 based on major insurers. Includes homes, mobile homes, commercial
and industrial properties and their contents; boats; autos; farm
equipment and structures; "time-element" losses of
living expenses and "business interruption." |
|
2. Uninsured homes |
0.35 |
From The Miami Herald (MH), 16 February 1993 for cost to rebuild.
May not include contents. |
|
3. Government property: |
|
|
a. Federal Government: |
|
i. Homestead AFB |
0.5 |
From CARCAH |
|
ii. Other |
? |
|
|
b. State Governments |
? |
|
|
c. County Governments |
0.287 |
Uninsured loss to Metro-Dade reported by Audit and Management
Services Department on 25 January 1993. |
|
d. City Governments |
? |
|
|
e. Schools |
0.358 |
MH, 10 September 1992 for K-12, FIU, Dade County CC and UM. FEMA estimate of $0.06 billion
for school repair on 27 February 1993. |
|
|
|
4. Agriculture |
1.0 |
MH, 10 September 1992. Part of loss covered in #1. Excludes loss
of row crops. |
|
5. Environment: |
|
|
a. Clean-up |
2.0 |
Amount requested of Federal Government by State of Florida. FEMA estimate of $0.375 billion
on 27 February 1993. |
|
b. Parks, Marinas,
Beaches and Reefs |
0.124 |
MH, 10 September 1992. |
|
c. Landscaping |
? |
|
|
|
|
6. Aircraft |
0.02 |
From survey of aircraft underwriters. |
|
7. Flood Claims |
0.096 |
From FEMA Flood Insurance
Administration. |
|
8. Uniformed and Overtime Assistance (e.g., military,
police, National Guard and their associated expenses) |
- |
Not included |
|
9. Deductibles |
? |
|
|
10. Other |
? |
|
Table 4. Hurricane Andrew
average track forecast errors (nautical miles), non-homogeneous
sample.
|
Forecast period (hours) |
|
|
Forecast period (hours) |
|
Model |
12 |
24 |
36 |
48 |
72 |
|
Model |
12 |
24 |
36 |
48 |
72 |
Official
(no. of cases) |
33 |
65 |
106 |
141 |
243 |
|
CLIPER |
35 |
81 |
148 |
233 |
437 |
|
(37) |
(35) |
(33) |
(31) |
(27) |
|
(37) |
(35) |
(33) |
(31) |
(27) |
|
AVNO |
60 |
75 |
89 |
97 |
132 |
|
BAMD |
45 |
93 |
141 |
182 |
268 |
|
(15) |
(15) |
(14) |
(13) |
(11) |
|
(37) |
(35) |
(33) |
(31) |
(27) |
|
BAMM |
40 |
81 |
121 |
151 |
229 |
|
BAMS |
39 |
77 |
114 |
135 |
197 |
|
(37) |
(35) |
(33) |
(31) |
(27) |
|
(37) |
(35) |
(33) |
(31) |
(27) |
|
QLM |
39 |
64 |
93 |
130 |
192 |
|
NHC90 |
35 |
77 |
135 |
197 |
330 |
|
(19) |
(18) |
(17) |
(16) |
(14) |
|
(37) |
(35) |
(33) |
(31) |
(27) |
|
VBAR |
32 |
60 |
93 |
138 |
287 |
|
GFDL |
36 |
71 |
93 |
117 |
209 |
|
(23) |
(23) |
(23) |
(23) |
(23) |
|
(9) |
(9) |
(9) |
(9) |
(7) |
Table 5.
Watch and warning summary, Hurricane Andrew.
Date/Time
(UTC) |
Action |
Region |
|
22/1500 |
Hurricane Watch |
Northwest Bahamas from Andros and Eleuthera Islands northward
through Grand Bahama and Great Abaco |
|
22/2100 |
Hurricane Warning |
Northwest Bahamas from Andros and Eleuthera Islands northward
through Grand Bahama and Great Abaco |
|
Hurricane Watch |
Florida east coast from Titusville southward through the Florida
Keys including the Dry Tortugas |
|
23/0600 |
Hurricane Warning |
Central Bahamas including Cat Island, Great Exuma, San Salvador,
and Long Island |
|
23/1200 |
Hurricane Warning |
Florida east coast from Vero Beach southward through the Florida
Keys to the Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay |
|
Tropical Storm Warning |
Florida east coast north of Vero Beach to Titusville |
|
Hurricane Watch |
Florida west coast south of Bayport including the greater Tampa
area to north of Flamingo |
|
23/1800 |
Hurricane Warning |
Florida west coast south of Venice and Lake Okeechobee |
|
Tropical Storm Warning |
Florida west coast north of Venice to Bayport |
|
24/0900 |
Hurricane Warning discontinued |
Bahamas except for Bimini and Grand Bahama |
|
24/1300 |
Hurricane Warning discontinued |
Remainder of the Bahamas |
|
Hurricane Warning discontinued |
Florida except for Lake Okeechobee and the west coast south of
Venice to Flamingo |
|
Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch
discontinued |
Florida east coast from Vero Beach to Titusville and Florida
west coast from Venice to Bayport |
|
Hurricane Watch |
Northern Gulf coast from Mobile, Alabama to Sabine Pass, Texas |
|
24/1800 |
Hurricane Warning discontinued |
Remainder of Florida |
|
24/2100 |
Hurricane Warning |
Northern Gulf coast from Pascagoula, Mississippi through Vermillion
Bay, Louisiana |
|
25/0900 |
Hurricane Warning |
West of Vermillion Bay, Louisiana to Port Arthur, Texas |
|
Hurricane Watch |
West of Port Arthur through High Island, Texas |
|
25/1500 |
Hurricane Warning |
West of Port Arthur through the Bolivar Peninsula Texas |
|
Hurricane Watch |
West of the Bolivar Peninsula to Freeport, Texas |
|
26/0700 |
Hurricane Warning discontinued |
East of Grand Isle, Louisiana |
|
Hurricane Watch discontinued |
West of the Bolivar Peninsula |
|
26/1100 |
Hurricane Warning discontinued |
West of Port Arthur, Texas |
|
26/1300 |
Hurricane Warning discontinued |
West of Cameron, Louisiana |
|
26/1700 |
Hurricane Warning discontinued |
Remainder of Gulf coast |
Table 6. Watch and warning
lead times for landfall sites during Hurricane Andrew. Lead time
refers to time lapsed from advisory to landfall.
|
Location |
Type |
Lead Time (Hours) |
|
Northwest Bahamas |
Hurricane Watch |
30 |
|
Hurricane Warning |
24 |
|
Southeast Florida |
Hurricane Watch |
36 |
|
Hurricane Warning |
21 |
|
South-central Louisiana |
Hurricane Watch |
43 |
|
Hurricane Warning |
24 |
Table
7. Chances of the center of Hurricane Andrew passing within 65
miles of listed locations by date and time (EDT) indicated; probabilities
in percent with X for less than 2 percent.
ADVISORY ISSUE TIME: 16/11PM 17/5AM 17/11AM 17/5PM 17/11PM
PROBABILITY END TIME: 19/8PM 20/2AM 20/8AM 20/2PM 20/8PM
SVMG 110N 640W 4 5 7 6 X
TTPP 106N 614W 7 8 9 6 X
TTPT 112N 608W 8 10 11 8 X
TGPY 120N 618W 8 10 11 9 X
TBPB 131N 595W 11 14 15 14 4
TVSV 131N 612W 9 11 14 12 3
TLPL 138N 610W 10 12 15 14 5
TFFF 146N 610W 10 12 15 15 8
TDPR 153N 614W 10 12 15 15 10
TFFR 163N 615W 10 12 16 16 13
TAPA 171N 618W 9 11 15 16 15
TKPK 173N 627W 8 10 14 15 14
TNCM 181N 631W 8 9 14 14 14
TISX 177N 648W 6 7 12 12 9
TIST 183N 650W 6 7 11 12 10
TJPS 180N 666W 4 5 9 10 6
TJSJ 184N 661W 4 5 10 11 8
MDSD 185N 697W X X 5 5 X
MDCB 176N 714W X X 2 3 X
MTPP 186N 724W X X 2 2 X
TNCC 122N 690W X X 3 2 X
MDPP 198N 707W X X 3 4 X
MBJT 215N 712W X X 2 3 X
MYMM 224N 730W X X X 2 X
ST CROIX VI 6 7 12 12 9
ST THOMAS VI 6 7 11 12 10
SAN JUAN PR 4 5 10 11 8
PONCE PR 4 5 9 10 6
ADVISORY ISSUE TIME: 18/5AM 18/11AM 18/5PM 18/11PM 19/5AM
PROBABILITY END TIME: 21/2AM 21/8AM 21/2PM 21/8PM 22/2AM
TBPB 131N 595W 4 3 X X X
TVSV 131N 612W 3 3 X X X
TLPL 138N 610W 6 6 2 X X
TFFF 146N 610W 9 9 4 2 2
TDPR 153N 614W 11 13 7 4 3
TFFR 163N 615W 15 18 13 8 6
TAPA 171N 618W 18 21 17 14 10
TKPK 173N 627W 16 20 17 14 12
TNCM 181N 631W 17 21 19 19 17
TISX 177N 648W 12 16 14 14 12
TIST 183N 650W 13 17 16 16 15
TJPS 180N 666W 8 13 12 12 11
TJSJ 184N 661W 10 15 14 14 14
MDSD 185N 697W 3 6 7 8 8
MDCB 176N 714W X 2 3 3 3
MTPP 186N 724W X 2 3 3 3
MDPP 198N 707W 3 6 8 8 9
MBJT 215N 712W 3 7 8 9 11
MYMM 224N 730W X 4 5 6 8
MYSM 241N 745W X 2 3 4 6
MYEG 235N 758W X X 2 2 3
MYNN 251N 775W X X X X 2
ST CROIX VI 12 16 14 14 12
ST THOMAS VI 13 17 16 16 15
SAN JUAN PR 10 15 14 14 14
PONCE PR 8 13 12 12 11
ADVISORY ISSUE TIME: 19/11AM 19/5PM 19/11PM 20/5AM 20/11AM
PROBABILITY END TIME: 22/8AM 22/2PM 22/8PM 23/2AM 23/8AM
TAPA 171N 618W 2 X X X X
TKPK 173N 627W 4 X X X X
TNCM 181N 631W 7 3 X X X
TISX 177N 648W 6 3 2 2 2
TIST 183N 650W 9 5 3 3 3
TJPS 180N 666W 7 5 4 4 4
TJSJ 184N 661W 9 6 4 4 4
MDSD 185N 697W 6 7 6 6 6
MDCB 176N 714W 3 4 3 3 4
MTPP 186N 724W 3 6 4 4 5
MDPP 198N 707W 8 11 9 9 9
MBJT 215N 712W 11 16 13 13 12
MYMM 224N 730W 8 14 11 12 11
MYSM 241N 745W 6 14 9 10 10
MYEG 235N 758W 3 10 6 6 7
MYNN 251N 775W X 8 3 4 5
MUGM 200N 751W X 6 3 3 4
MUCM 214N 779W X 3 X X 2
MYAK 241N 776W X 7 3 3 5
MTCA 183N 738W X 4 3 3 3
MYGF 266N 787W X 6 2 2 4
ST CROIX VI 6 3 2 2 2
ST THOMAS VI 9 5 3 3 3
SAN JUAN PR 9 6 4 4 4
PONCE PR 7 5 4 4 4
MARATHON FL X 2 X X X
MIAMI FL X 3 X X 2
W PALM BEACH FL X 4 X X 2
FT PIERCE FL X 3 X X 2
COCOA BEACH FL X 3 X X X
DAYTONA BEACH FL X 2 X X X
MARCO ISLAND FL X 2 X X X
BERMUDA X X 3 X 3
ADVISORY ISSUE TIME: 20/5PM 20/11PM 21/5AM 21/11AM 21/5PM
PROBABILITY END TIME: 23/2PM 23/8PM 24/2AM 24/8AM 24/2PM
MDSD 185N 697W 4 X X X X
MDCB 176N 714W 2 X X X X
MTPP 186N 724W 4 X 2 2 2
MDPP 198N 707W 7 3 3 3 2
MBJT 215N 712W 12 6 8 6 6
MYMM 224N 730W 13 7 9 8 8
MYSM 241N 745W 13 8 12 11 12
MYEG 235N 758W 10 5 8 9 10
MYNN 251N 775W 8 3 7 9 10
MUGM 200N 751W 5 X 3 4 3
MUCM 214N 779W 4 X 2 5 5
MYAK 241N 776W 7 2 6 8 9
MTCA 183N 738W 3 X 2 2 X
MYGF 266N 787W 6 2 6 9 9
MUHA 230N 824W X X X 3 3
MKJS 185N 779W X X X 2 2
MWCG 193N 814W X X X 2 X
MUCF 221N 805W X X X 4 4
MUSN 216N 826W X X X 2 2
MARATHON FL 2 X X 5 6
MIAMI FL 3 X 2 7 7
W PALM BEACH FL 4 X 3 7 8
FT PIERCE FL 3 X 3 7 8
COCOA BEACH FL 3 X 3 6 7
DAYTONA BEACH FL 2 X 2 6 6
MARCO ISLAND FL 2 X X 5 6
BERMUDA 2 6 3 2 2
MYRTLE BEACH SC 2 X 3 4 4
WILMINGTON NC 2 2 4 3 4
MOREHEAD CITY NC 3 3 5 3 3
CAPE HATTERAS NC 2 3 5 3 3
CHARLESTON SC 2 X 3 4 4
NORFOLK VA X X 3 2 2
OCEAN CITY MD X X 2 X X
SAVANNAH GA X X 2 4 4
KEY WEST FL X X X 5 5
JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 5 5
FT MYERS FL X X X 5 6
VENICE FL X X X 5 5
TAMPA FL X X X 5 5
CEDAR KEY FL X X X 4 4
ST MARKS FL X X X 3 3
APALACHICOLA FL X X X X 3
PANAMA CITY FL X X X X 2
GULF 29N 85W X X X X 3
GULF 29N 87W X X X X 2
ADVISORY ISSUE TIME: 21/11PM 22/5AM 22/11AM 22/5PM 22/11PM
PROBABILITY END TIME: 24/8PM 25/2AM 25/8AM 25/2PM 25/8PM
MBJT 215N 712W 3 2 X X X
MYMM 224N 730W 6 6 5 X X
MYSM 241N 745W 11 12 16 19 21
MYEG 235N 758W 9 10 12 15 11
MYNN 251N 775W 11 13 17 27 35
MUGM 200N 751W 3 X X X X
MUCM 214N 779W 4 5 6 7 2
MYAK 241N 776W 9 11 14 22 27
MYGF 266N 787W 11 13 17 24 24
MUHA 230N 824W 4 5 8 14 16
MWCG 193N 814W X X X 4 X
MUCF 221N 805W 4 5 8 12 10
MUSN 216N 826W 2 3 6 10 9
MUAN 219N 850W 2 3 5 9 11
MMCZ 205N 869W X X 3 5 5
MARATHON FL 6 8 12 19 23
MIAMI FL 8 10 14 21 23
W PALM BEACH FL 9 11 15 20 20
FT PIERCE FL 9 11 15 18 16
COCOA BEACH FL 9 11 14 16 13
DAYTONA BEACH FL 8 10 12 13 10
MARCO ISLAND FL 7 9 13 19 21
BERMUDA 2 X X X X
MYRTLE BEACH SC 6 6 5 X X
WILMINGTON NC 5 5 4 X X
MOREHEAD CITY NC 5 5 3 X X
CAPE HATTERAS NC 4 4 2 X X
CHARLESTON SC 6 7 6 3 2
NORFOLK VA 2 2 X X X
SAVANNAH GA 6 7 7 5 4
KEY WEST FL 5 7 11 18 21
JACKSONVILLE FL 7 8 9 9 7
FT MYERS FL 7 9 13 18 19
VENICE FL 6 8 12 17 17
TAMPA FL 7 9 11 15 14
CEDAR KEY FL 6 8 10 13 11
ST MARKS FL 4 6 8 10 9
APALACHICOLA FL 4 5 7 11 10
PANAMA CITY FL 3 5 6 10 9
GULF 29N 85W 4 6 8 12 11
GULF 29N 87W 2 4 6 11 11
PENSACOLA FL 2 3 5 9 8
MOBILE AL 2 X 4 8 7
MMMD 210N 897W X X 2 3 5
GULFPORT MS X X 3 8 7
BURAS LA X X 3 8 9
NEW ORLEANS LA X X 3 7 7
NEW IBERIA LA X X 2 5 6
GULF 28N 89W X X 4 10 11
GULF 28N 91W X X 2 7 9
FREEPORT TX X X X 2 4
PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 2 3
PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 3 4
GALVESTON TX X X X 3 4
GULF 28N 93W X X X 5 7
GULF 28N 95W X X X 3 5
GULF 27N 96W X X X 2 4
BROWNSVILLE TX X X X X 3
CORPUS CHRISTI TX X X X X 3
GULF 25N 96W X X X X 4
ADVISORY ISSUE TIME: 23/5AM 23/11AM 23/5PM
PROBABILITY END TIME: 26/2AM 26/8AM 26/2PM
MYSM 241N 745W 26 13 X
MYEG 235N 758W 12 2 X
MYNN 251N 775W 51 68 99
MYAK 241N 776W 34 34 17
MYGF 266N 787W 36 43 61
MUHA 230N 824W 18 15 10
MUCF 221N 805W 10 5 X
MUSN 216N 826W 9 5 X
MUAN 219N 850W 11 9 6
MMCZ 205N 869W 5 4 X
MARATHON FL 30 32 37
MIAMI FL 34 40 56
W PALM BEACH FL 30 33 47
FT PIERCE FL 23 23 28
COCOA BEACH FL 17 16 16
DAYTONA BEACH FL 11 10 9
MARCO ISLAND FL 28 31 42
CHARLESTON SC X X X
SAVANNAH GA 3 2 X
KEY WEST FL 27 28 31
JACKSONVILLE FL 7 6 X
FT MYERS FL 25 27 37
VENICE FL 21 22 29
TAMPA FL 17 17 20
CEDAR KEY FL 13 12 13
ST MARKS FL 10 10 9
APALACHICOLA FL 12 12 12
PANAMA CITY FL 12 11 11
GULF 29N 85W 14 14 15
GULF 29N 87W 14 14 15
PENSACOLA FL 11 11 11
MOBILE AL 10 11 11
MMMD 210N 897W 5 5 X
GULFPORT MS 10 11 12
BURAS LA 12 13 14
NEW ORLEANS LA 11 12 13
NEW IBERIA LA 9 11 13
GULF 28N 89W 14 16 17
GULF 28N 91W 12 14 16
FREEPORT TX 7 9 12
PORT O CONNOR TX 6 8 11
PORT ARTHUR TX 7 10 12
GALVESTON TX 7 10 12
MMSO 238N 982W 2 3 X
MMTM 222N 979W X 2 X
Hurricane Media Central
STORY
IDEAS for REPORTERS || NOAA PUBLIC AFFAIRS
|| REPORTER RESOURCES
1999 PRESS
RELEASES || NOAA HOME PAGE
|| BACKGROUNDERS |
