Introduction

Decisions such as whether to carry an umbrella to work or whether to evacuate an area before a serious storm hits are a lot easier to make with the help of weather forecasts. But as any nightly news viewer knows, these forecasts are not perfect. In fact, the further into the future forecasts look, the more likely they are to be inaccurate. Now, two researchers at the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division are trying to improve the skill of forecasts one to two weeks ahead, where current forecasts have very little skill. But instead of modifying current computer forecast models or using more satellite data, PSD scientists Jeff Whitaker and Tom Hamill are examining the errors of old weather forecasts to get a clearer picture of the future.