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CLIMATE CHANGE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING
Overview
A goal of CSCOR's climate research is the development of ecological models that lead to ecosystem forecasts. Decision makers need more complete understanding of ecosystem dynamics, structure and functional interrelationships to successfully protect our coastal and marine resources. Ecological models enable decision makers to draw conclusions for larger areas and longer periods since they allow quantitative understanding of ecosystems. The National Academy of Sciences, the National Science Board, and the President's Committee of Advisors on Science and Technology all call for improvement in the capacity of ecosystem forecasting.
Ecological Forecasts can:
- Highlight requirements for future scientific research and monitoring priorities,
- Bring scientists and resource managers together to resolve resource management problems,
- Predict the results from use and overuse of natural resources, and
- Improve decisions to maintain ecosystem productivity thus lessen the impacts from extreme natural events and human activities.
Research Projects
- Climate Change and Intertidal Risk Analysis: Forecasting the effects of climate change on the biogeography of foundation species in estuarine and rocky intertidal ecosystems (FY04-08)
- Development of an operational model for predicting the near real-time distribution and abundance of the scyphomedusae Chrysaora quinquecirra in Chesapeake Bay (FY04-06)