The health sector will focus on what is known about the relationship between climate and health, and on the possible effects climate change and variability might have on human health in the United States. The assessment will factor in anticipated changes in the American population and way of life as a result of aging, urbanization, immigration patterns, population growth, economic development, and other factors. It will also evaluate the extent to which the nation can potentially adapt to or mitigate the health effects of climate change and variability, and identify other current and possible future health priorities for the country that might compete for the nation's attention and resources.

The project is co-chaired by Jonathan Patz, Director of the Program on the Health Effects of Global Environmental Change at Johns Hopkins University School of Public Health, and Michael McGeehin, Chief of the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Health Studies Branch, and is directed Susan Bernard, also at Johns Hopkins. A group of eight lead authors has been assembled from a range of government, academic, and private institutions.

The literature on the topic of the possible health effects of climate change and variability in the United States identifies a number of potential outcomes, mostly adverse. For example, if the summer heat waves become more frequent or last longer, heat-related morbidity and mortality, particularly among the urban and elderly poor, could increase. Because higher temperatures have been shown to exacerbate air pollution, longer, hotter summers may lead to increased respiratory illness in our cities. The habitats of disease vectors may change as regional climates become more or less hospitable to them. Changes in the hydrological cycle may result in increased severity and frequency of storm events like those driven by El Niño. As we have learned from the recent series of El Niño events, extreme weather events can result in injury, illness, emotional distress, and even death. Additionally, storm events can result in exposure of people to water and food-borne diseases as a result of contaminated storm water runoff and flooding.

The health sector assessment will address four key questions (with sub-questions):

• What is the current status of the nation's health, and what are current stresses on our health?
  
• How might climate change affect the country's health and existing or predicted stresses on health?
  
• What is the country's capacity to adapt to climate change, for example, through modifications to the health infrastructure or by adopting specific coping mechanisms? What are the negative health impacts, if any, of adapting? What are the co-benefits, if any? What are the economic and social costs/benefits?
  
• What essential knowledge gaps must be filled?

These questions can be answered, to the extent an answer is currently possible, through comprehensive research in a range of sources, including scientific literature; government reports and information; ongoing and unpublished research; and some computer modeling, using climate change and socioeconomic scenarios developed by the NAST.

The health sector assessment team is currently seeking the involvement of members of the public health community and of other participants in the national assessment process in defining the scope of their investigation and in identifying public health concerns, priorities, and research needs with respect to climate change and variability. Copies of the relevant documents may be obtained by emailing healthfx@jhsph.edu or by calling Susan Bernard at (410) 955-4074. Comments should be submitted in writing, so that they can be disseminated to the assessment authors for consideration and response.

For more information, contact:

Susan M. Bernard, J.D., M.P.H., Johns Hopkins University School of Public Health; Department of Environmental Health Sciences, 615 N. Wolfe Street, Room 7041, Baltimore, MD 21205-2179; phone (410) 955-4074.