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Synthesis to Develop Predictive Capabilities
Issue
NCCOS' Center for Sponsored Coastal Research (CSCOR) and supports multi-disciplinary coastal ecosystem studies designed to improve management decisions by enhancing the understanding of physical, biological, and chemical processes in these complex systems. In general, these types of large scale projects, some of which have been supported by other Federal agencies, have been committed to producing data and information products such as technical reports, peer-reviewed publications, data bases, and numerical and conceptual models. However, the delivery of comprehensive information products and technologies to the appropriate management community for application to specific coastal management issues remains a challenge to scientific programs that have been largely focused on research.
Approach
In 2002, CSCOR solicited proposals for projects concentrating exclusively on the synthesis of results and information generated by coastal ecosystem studies that have concluded, or are near completion. The overall goal was to advance and/or develop predictive capabilities, i.e., ecological forecasts. From that solicitation, five projects were recommended for funding in Fiscal Year 2002.
Data
Synthesis, Model Comparisons, and a Risk-Based Decision Support System
for Managing Coastal Systems Exposed to Multiple Stressors (University
of Maryland, Philadelphia Academy of Natural Sciences, Smithsonian
Environmental Research Center, University of Virginia) Estuarine
systems are affected by multiple consequences of human activities,
and it is important to consider the array of stressors affecting
coastal systems in a holistic, coordinated manner. This project is
based in the Patuxent River sub-estuary of the Chesapeake Bay, but
its results are applicable to many estuaries suffering under multiple
stresses of nutrient enrichment, contaminants, overfishing, and increasing
development in the surrounding watershed. The investigators are a
team of ecologists, modelers, biogeochemists, and economists working
together to understand how multiple stressors and ecological complexity
influence coastal ecosystems. Their efforts will develop and refine
estuarine ecosystem models, and place these forecasts in the context
of decision support systems developed in collaboration with environmental
managers. Specifically, the team will further understand and quantify
the factors that control nitrogen and phosphorus discharge from the
Patuxent watershed; enhance forecasting for managing nutrient inputs
to coastal systems; examine the loadings and effects of dissolved
contaminants within the Patuxent as related to other estuaries; examine
the role of nutrient loadings, benthic processes, and model resolution
in predicting water quality; predict the responses of fish and shellfish
populations to multiple stressors (eutrophication, habitat destruction,
fishing pressure, disease); and examine investment risks associated
with restoration and management activities in estuarine systems.
Ultimately, a risk-based decision support system will be developed,
directed at selected management issues associated with nutrients,
low dissolved oxygen, contaminants, fishing pressure, land-use and
harvest regulations.
Impact
of Transport Processes on Lobster Fishery Patterns (Bigelow
Laboratory, University of Maine, Texas A&M University, Maine
Department of Marine Resources) The lobster fishery is the most lucrative
coastal fishery in the Gulf of Maine ($183 Million in 1999). Lobster
adult populations have increased over the past decade, but patterns
of abundance are not uniform over the Gulf, and settlement patterns
of juvenile lobsters have been in decline since 1995. Estimates show
that the decline in settlement will impact the adult (fished) population
beginning in 2002. This project will provide a quantitative, mechanistic
model of lobster recruitment, from egg production to the fishery,
in the northern and western Gulf of Maine. It will map egg production
patterns, calculate dispersal patterns using 3D physical circulation
models coupled to realistic biological behavioral models, determine
settlement patterns under different flow regimes, and estimate the
effects of transport processes and settlement patterns on fishery
production. 
Synthesizing Seagrass Models: Application to Ecological Forecasts (Mote Marine Laboratory, University of Maryland, NOAA Center for Coastal Fisheries Habitat Research) Seagrasses are often the dominant habitat within shallow coastal lagoons, and they support a vast array of invertebrates and resident and transient fishes. Seagrass distribution is dependent upon water depth, light characteristics, and salinity. Disturbance due to storms or ship propellers can disrupt the seagrass landscape and cause gaps. Significant losses of seagrass habitat have occurred, with declines linked to both natural and anthropogenic causes. This project will develop an ability to forecast the response of a seagrass landscape to extreme wind events, anthopogenic stressors, and natural variability in three geographic locations: Tampa Bay (FL), Southern Pamlico Sound (NC), and Chesapeake Bay (MD and VA). It will also explore the potential for restoration of seagrass beds within these locations, based on hydrodynamic and water quality data. A comparison of existing seagrass models will provide managers with information on the range, resolution, and application of seagrass models, and their utility to coastal managers and landscape ecologists. For more information, view the Project's website.
Ecosystem Variability and Estuarine Fishes: A Synthesis (
University of Maryland, Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab) Estuarine
and coastal systems support important fisheries, either directly or
indirectly through their role as nursery habitat for many marine fish
species. In order to protect and utilize these resources effectively,
managers need reliable forecasts of the response of the ecosystem to
changes in the natural and anthropogenic factors that structure them.
Although ecosystems change on several different time scales, much of
the forecasting effort has been directed to the shortest-term effects.
This project will improve understanding of how effects of natural and
anthropogenic disturbances cascade over space and time. Within years,
fish assemblages respond to elevated nutrient loading, oxygen levels,
and seasonal primary production. Between years, fish populations often
reflect ecosystem responses to previous years’ conditions, when
populations were spawned. At decadal time scales, structural changes
in ecosystems are possible due to changes in water masses, and long-term
temperature changes. Developing forecasts of ecosystem conditions will
enhance sustainable use of estuaries by allowing managers to compare
the likely ecosystem impacts of alternative strategies under different
environmental scenarios.
Climate-Based Forecasts of the Gulf of Maine Ecosystem (Cornell University, NOAA Northeast Fisheries Science Center) The Gulf of Maine is home to several heavily-fished fish stocks, as well as the endangered North Atlantic right whale. An understanding of the natural cycles of these populations depends upon identifying environmental variables that influence them. A chain of interactions link the Gulf of Maine ecosystem to North Atlantic climate forcing, beginning with an atmospheric phenomenon known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO reflects winter conditions over the Labrador Sea, and influences the currents and water masses in the NW Atlantic ocean and the Gulf of Maine by regulating the transport of the Labrador Current. The relative contribution of the Labrador Current to the waters of the Gulf of Maine influence the zooplankton populations, which in turn, influence the fish and whale populations that depend upon them for food. This project will refine understanding of the interconnections among North Atlantic climate, water mass transport, zooplankton populations, and fish recruitment. Results will be incorporated into stock assessment models and help extend these projections farther into the future. The management implications of a related model for right whale reproduction will also be considered.
For more information, contact:
NOAA/NOS/NCCOS/CSCOR
phone: 301-713-3338
e-mail: coastalocean@noaa.gov