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Project Number 294
Date of Summary April 01, 1998
Subject Statistical Analysis of MMS Inspection and Accident Data
Performing Activity Department of Energy/Federal Energy Technology Center (FETC)
Principal Investigator John Shultz
Contracting Agency Minerals Management Service
Estimated Completion January 1999
Description This project is a review of the risk assessment and inspection procedure of the Minerals Management Service. Additionally, it assesses the current state of knowledge in the area of risk assessment of offshore platforms and develops three models to predict the likelihood of accidents and spills at offshore platforms. Two sources of information were used to construct the modes:

   1.  Databases maintained by the Minerals Management Service (MMS)
   2.  Surveys of platform inspectors

The first two models were based on the information in the databases and consist of neural network and logistic regression models. The third model used multiattribute utility theory procedures and the information gathered through surveys.
Progress The project is complete.

Reports
AA (334 pages)  File in Adobe's Portable Document Format (PDF) . Shultz, John R, Offshore Production Platform Risk Modeling Project, A Summary Report of Risk Factor Surveys, Department of Energy/Federal Energy Technology Center (DOE/FETC), August 6, 1998.
AB (42 pages)  File in Adobe's Portable Document Format (PDF) . Shultz, John, R., The Risk of Accidents and Spills at Offshore Production Platforms: A Statistical Analysis of Risk Factors and the Development of Predictive Models, Data Appendix, Survey Appendix, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, June 1998.

 

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