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National Situation Update: Sunday, September 14, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Commercial Aviation ORANGE

South
Early today, Ike's low pressure merges with a cold front as it moves from southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas to southeast Missouri, and then into the Ohio Valley by Sunday evening. Locally heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue over the southern Mississippi Valley, the Texas Gulf Coast and Arkansas. The Southeast will be mainly rain free Sunday as high pressure, both at the surface and aloft, protects the region but continues to make for a hot weekend. As the cold front pushes eastward on Monday, the threat for thunderstorms prevail from Tennessee and the southern Appalachians to around the Gulf Coast.

Midwest
On Sunday, a low pressure caused by Ike will merge with the cold front and move northeastward from southeast Missouri to Lake Erie. The front and Ike's moisture will exit the Midwest on Monday, but a few showers and thunderstorms could occur from eastern Ohio to Kentucky. Heavy rain is forecast from Missouri to southern Michigan with the possibility of flooding in some areas.

Northeast
Today, a rainy warm front will move northeastward from Upstate New York and New England toward the Canadian border. The remnants of Ike will sweep through the region on Monday.

West
Except for isolated thunderstorms across Arizona and New Mexico, the West will be mostly dry today. (NOAA, National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

Tropical Weather

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Tropical Depression Ike    
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Depression Ike was located inland about 75 miles southeast of Springfield, MO. Ike is moving toward the northeast near 35 mph; a general motion toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Ike will continue to weaken and lose tropical characheristics during the next 12 to 24 hours.  The system could strengthen as a non-tropical low tonight or Monday. Isolated tornadoes are possible today from southeastern Missouri, Tennessee Valley northeastward through the Ohio Valley.

Area 1
A tropical wave located about 1,000 miles east of the Leeward Islands is producing very disorganized shower activity as it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph. Significant development of this system during the next couple of days appears unlikely due to strong upper-level winds.
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
No tropical development forecast for the next 24 hours.

Western Pacific:
No tropical cyclone activity affecting United States Territories. (NOAA, HPC,  National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Federal / State Response for Hurricane Ike

Region IV
Localized coastal flooding has occurred along the Region IV coastal states in low-lying areas.  Additionally, all Region IV states are reporting an increased demand for fuel and spikes in fuel prices.

Alabama
Governor of Alabama is requesting an emergency declaration for Public Assistance (Categories A and B), including direct Federal assistance, for two counties, at 100 percent Federal funding for the first 72 hours. There are no unmet needs at this time.

FEMA Region VI
Louisiana
The Governor's office preliminary reports stated that several hundred people were rescued in five parishes (including before and after the storm). More than 600 state personnel and 300 watercraft were available for search and rescue missions. Urban Search and Rescue (USAR) is providing an additional 400 personnel. The Governor's office reports that commodities are pre-positioned in Chennault, LA, and PODS will be open as local governments are set up and able to receive supplies. Total commodities available in the state include: 2.9 million meals, 4.7 million bottles of water, and 3.6 million pounds of ice.

The Governor reported power outages in Cameron Parish. Preliminary reports indicated that 40% of Calcasieu Parish is without power. Power companies report 39,000 without power down from a peak of 56,000 in Calcasieu Parish. The Department of Energy reports 161,935 customers without power (as of 9/13/08 7:00 p.m. CDT)

HHS reports six hospitals closed and six sheltering. Port Author and Beaumont levees have not been compromised; 2 non-federal levees were reportedly overtopped in St. Mary's Parish.

NSS reports 25 shelters open with a population 2,170 as of 8:00 p.m. Saturday, September 13.

Texas
The storm surge for Hurricane Ike reached 11-14 feet in the Galveston Bay/Texas City area. This is well below the 15-25 feet of surge that was forecast. Numerous Flood and Flash Flood Warnings are in effect for rivers throughout the region. Approximately 2.2 million residents had self-evacuated from Texas impacted areas. 10 PDA teams are on standby in Austin and other teams are being identified. The City of Orange officials have estimated that a 2 square mile portion of the city is underwater, and the County EOC is within the flooded area, thus preventing access.

The Department of Energy reports approx. 2.79 million customers without power (as of 9/13/08, 4:00 p.m. CDT). The State reports that the priority for restoration of power is essential facilities (medical care facilities and those involved with continuity of government) and facilities that directly impact public health and safety. No restoration activities expected over night until air assessments have been completed starting at first light tomorrow morning. Officials in Texas City estimate 5 days for infrastructure to be restored. Electricity is only partially back up.

Storm damage assessments will begin on the Middle Texas Coast pipeline systems and facilities that were shutdown due to the storm. Damage assessments of Upper Texas Coast pipeline systems and facilities and offshore facilities will probably begin tomorrow as the storm passes. The City of Houston has issued a boil water notice, effective Saturday.
NSS reports 247 shelters open with a total population of 42,345 as of 8:00 p.m. Saturday, September 13.

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant to report. (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

The USGS reports that a magnitude 4.4 earthquake occurred Sunday, September 14, 2008 at 2:33 a.m. EDT 182 miles west of Neah Bay, Washington at a depth of 6.2 miles. There were no reports of damage or injury and no tsunami was generated. (USGS/NEIC, Pacific, West Coast & Alaska Tsunami Warning Centers)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Saturday, September 13, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 2
Initial attack activity: Light (76)
New large fires: 1
Uncontained large fires: 6
Large fires contained: 0
States with large fires: CA, OR, ID, and NV.

Disaster Declaration Activity

On September 13, 2008, the President signed a major disaster declaration FEMA-1791-DR for the State of Texas for Hurricane Ike that occurred September 7, 2008, and continuing. The declaration designates Individual Assistance and Public Assistance for 29 counties and debris removal (Category A), including direct Federal assistance under the Public Assistance program at 75 percent Federal funding, and Hazard Mitigation statewide. Additional designations may be made at a later date after further evaluation. The FCO is Sandy Coachman of the National FCO Program.

On September 13, 2008, the President signed a major disaster declaration FEMA-1792-DR for the State of Louisiana for Hurricane Ike that occurred September 11, 2008, and continuing. The declaration designates Individual Assistance and Public Assistance for 10 parishes and for debris removal (Category A), including direct Federal assistance under the Public Assistance program at 75 percent Federal funding, and Hazard Mitigation statewide. Additional designations may be made at a later date after further evaluation. The FCO is Michael J. Hall of the National FCO Program.

On September 12, 2008, the Governor of Alabama requested an emergency disaster declaration for two counties (Baldwin and Mobile) as a result of wind, rain, severe storms, flooding, and storm surge that occurred on September 12, 2008, and continuing. The Governor is requesting Public Assistance (Categories A and B) debris removal and emergency protective services, including direct Federal assistance for Baldwin and Mobile Counties at 100 percent Federal funding for the first 72 hours.

On September 12, 2008, the Governor of Arkansas requested a major disaster declaration for eighteen counties as a result of Hurricane Gustav that occurred on September 2-8, 2008. The Governor is requesting Public Assistance, including direct Federal assistance for eighteen counties, and Hazard Mitigation statewide.

On September 13, 2008, FEMA-1792-DR-LA amendment # 1 was approved to include Jefferson, Lafourche, Plaquemines, and Terrebonne Parishes for Individual Assistance and debris removal (Category A), including direct Federal assistance, under the Public Assistance program. (FEMA HQ)