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National Situation Update: Saturday, September 13, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Commercial Aviation ORANGE

South
As of 3:10 p.m. EDT, Category 2 Hurricane Ike made landfall near Galveston Island, Texas. Ike is moving towards the northwest at near 10 mph. A northwest to north-northwestward motion is forecast to continue this morning with a turn towards the north expected this afternoon. Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph with higher gusts. Damaging winds, storm surge and heavy rain are affecting Texas, Louisiana and much of the Gulf Coast. Ike will move northward today affecting areas of the Midwest to the Great Lakes. Elsewhere across the South, a high pressure system is forecast to limit precipitation to a few isolated thunderstorms in the Carolinas and south Florida on Saturday. On Sunday, moisture from Ike will interact with a stalled front across the southern Plains resulting in heavy, flooding rain across parts of eastern Oklahoma, northern Arkansas and southern Missouri.

Midwest
Slow frontal boundaries and a low pressure system will combine to produce wet weather conditions across parts of the Midwest. On Saturday, rain and thunderstorms are forecast from the Corn Belt to the Great Lakes. Moisture from Ike will move from the Plains to the Great Lakes tomorrow. Flooding is possible, especially across eastern Kansas, central and southern Missouri and southern Illinois on Sunday.

Northeast
A persistent front, blocked by a ridge of high pressure, is forecast over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through the weekend. The remnants of Ike will move through the region later Monday into early Tuesday, but rainfall amounts will be modest.

West
Except for showers over Montana and isolated thunderstorms across the Southwest, most of the West will be dry on Saturday and into the coming week. (NOAA, National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

Tropical Weather

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Hurricane Ike    
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Ike was located about 30 miles north-northwest of Galveston, TX and about 25 miles east of Houston, Texas. Ike is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph. A turn toward the north is expected later today with a turn toward the northeast and an increase in forward speed expected tonight and Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center of Ike will move through southeastern and eastern Texas today and into western Arkansas tonight. Ike is a Category Two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale with maximum sustained winds near 110 mph with higher gusts. Weakening is expected as the center moves farther inland. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 125 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles.

Damaging winds, storm surge and heavy rain are affecting Texas, Louisiana and much of the Gulf Coast. Federal priorities for landfall are support for evacuations and pre-positioning of all resources. Post landfall priorities will be search and rescue, damage assessments, logistics support, responder safety, and shelter/mass care assistance.

Area 1
An area of disturbed weather including some of the remnants of Tropical Storm Josephine is located a couple hundred miles northeast of the southeastern Bahamas. Associated shower activity remains disorganized and development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur as it moves west-northwestward at 10 mph.

Area 2
An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located about 1,300 miles east of the Leeward Islands remain disorganized. While upper level winds are currently unfavorable for development of this system. They could become more favorable over the next day or two as the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Depression Lowell
No tropical cyclone activity affecting United States Territories.

Western Pacific:
No tropical cyclone activity affecting United States Territories. (NOAA, HPC,  National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Federal / State Preparations for Hurricane Ike

Region IV
RRCC operating at Level III
IMAT remains in Houston, TX
Maxwell AFB, AL and Meridian Naval Air Station, MS stood up as National Logistics Staging Areas (NLSA).

Florida
Activated at Level II (partial activation)
Some roads remain closed due to localized flooding.

FEMA Region VI
RRCC operating at Level I, providing 24/7 coverage with all ESFs in place.The National IMAT-East is deployed to San Antonio, Texas. Region VI IMAT is operational at the JFO in Austin, TX. Region V IMAT deployed to Alexandria, LA.

Region VI priorities today are to ensure the safety of all pre-positioned response teams;  provide full support to the State of Texas post-landfall response; provide continuous support for all established shelters; integrate the National IMAT-E Team into the Texas Task Force Ike Planning Process; prepare for future deployment of the National IMAT-E in support of Texas Task Force Ike; and to develop an Integrated Housing Task Force, in conjunction with the state.                                                                         

Region VI reports 527 US&R personnel and 120 vehicles staged in Houston, and 860 personnel and 80 vehicles are pre-staged in LA. These numbers represent combined Federal and State assets. Denver MERS equipment and personnel are staged at NLSA, Ft. Sam Houston, TX. When weather permits, the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) will conduct fly-overs to assess the condition of the navigation channels from Corpus Christi to Port Arthur, TX.

Louisiana
The Federal flood protection system has not been compromised, no breaches or overtopping. Region VI reported a levee breach on the Plaquemine Parish Levee. Crews are continuing to flood fight and work the levee issue. Water is still overtopping along two areas of the private levee (one 30-foot section and one 300-foot section), but only minimally due to sandbagging efforts by parish residents and workers. The water level is expected to drop by tomorrow morning.

The State EOC in Baton Rouge operating at Level I (full activation). State mobilized additional Emergency Medical Ambulance Type II Strike Teams through EMAC to support limited evacuations in southwest part of State. All State medical special needs shelters have been closed and all patients transferred to FMS sites as of today. Officials completed evacuations with another check of the area to ensure no one is left behind. Louisiana reports 1 shelter open for Ike (and Gustav), with overnight population of 17.

Texas
On September 12, the Governor of Texas requested an expedited major disaster declaration for ninety-nine counties.
State Emergency Operations Center (SEOC) in Austin operating at Level I (emergency conditions), 24/7 coverage.
The US Coast Guard is monitoring the status of the disabled 585-foot freight ship which is disabled 115 miles southeast of Galveston, TX with a 22 crew members aboard.  The vessel is drifting at about 8 mph to the SSE, away from oil rigs. A sea going tug will attempt to tow the vessel later today.

On Bolivar Island, Galveston, TX, 65 people have been rescued; more people continue to appear as rescues are made. Officials are estimating that 100-150 more people need to be rescued. State expects to begin re-entry operations beginning on or about 8:00 a.m. EDT, Saturday. Re-entry plans being coordinated by Texas Task Force Ike, made up of Federal, State, private sector law enforcement and first responders. Task Force has 1,000 vehicles and 1,000 personnel. Texas Task Force Ike will deploy beginning on or about 8:00 a.m. EDT, Saturday.

State reported the successful evacuation of 403 special needs medical patients was complete.
Texas estimates the total general population evacuation to be 43% (600,842) of the impacted counties.
Texas National Guard is providing 2,089 guard members in support of Hurricane Ike.  An additional 127 Guard members from seven other states have also been assigned for support.

Major crude pipelines originating in Texas and Louisiana have shut down operations.  Petroleum product and natural gas liquids pipelines have either shut or partially shut their operations.
Personnel have been evacuated from a total of 596 production platforms, equivalent to 83.1 % of the 717 manned platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. It is estimated that approximately 97.5 % of the oil production in the Gulf has been shut-in. Estimated current oil production from the Gulf of Mexico is 1.3 million barrels of oil per day. It is also estimated that approximately 94.4 % of the natural gas production in the Gulf has been shut-in. Estimated current natural gas production from the Gulf of Mexico is 7.4 billion cubic feet of gas per day.

A Public Health Emergency has been declared by Secretary Leavitt for the State of Texas as a consequence of Hurricane Ike. This declaration intends to waive or modify certain health care program requirements.

11 Mobile Disaster Recovery Centers (MDRC) staged in three locations. 221 shelters are open with a total population of 36,406.

Alabama
SEOC in Clanton operating at Level IV. FCO and FEMA Region VIII ERT-A remain operational at SEOC.

Mississippi (Ike and Gustav)
The State EOC is activated at Level II with some ESFs, the FCO and Cadre in-house.
Harrison, Hancock, and Jackson counties have issued an evacuation advisory of residents in low-lying areas as a result of localized flooding.  Mississippi has 1 shelter open, sheltering 30 (ESF-06)
The State is reporting no other issues or unmet needs at this time.

Federal / State Recovery for Gustav

FEMA Region VI
149,172 customers reported without power. The shelter population is stable with 17 open shelters with 1207 evacuees. HHS reports 2 medical shelters remain open with 323 patients remain out of state.
12 PODS are open in LA as of yesterday, but they have all been recalled and closed down in preparation for Hurricane Ike.

Train Collision in California

A Metrolink commuter train collided with a Union Pacific Rail freight train in Chatsworth, California, Los Angeles County.

As a result of the collision four (4) cars derailed with one of the passenger cars derailing onto its side.  Firefighters extinguished a fire under part of the wreckage and removed passengers from the damaged Metrolink car. There were 10 confirmed fatalities and 135 patients transported to local hospitals. 

It is estimated it will take approximately 48 hours to clear the railroad tracks at this time.  There was a minor diesel spill; however it is a minor issue at this time. A National Transportation and Safety Board (NTSB) investigation is anticipated. (Region IX)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant to report. (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No significant activity to report. (USGS/NEIC, Pacific, West Coast & Alaska Tsunami Warning Centers)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Friday, September 12, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 2
Initial attack activity: Light (67)
New large fires: 0
Uncontained large fires: 5
Large fires contained: 3
States with large fires: CA, OR, NV, and ID.

Disaster Declaration Activity

On September 12, 2008, the President signed a major disaster declaration (FEMA-1790-DR) for the State of Vermont in response to Severe Storms and Flooding that occurred July 21 - August 12, 2008. The declaration designates Public Assistance for seven counties for assistance to State and local governments and certain private nonprofit organizations for emergency work and the repair or replacement of disaster-damaged facilities, and Hazard Mitigation statewide. The FCO is Philip E. Parr of the National FCO Program. 
On September 12, 2008, the Governor of Texas has requested an expedited major disaster declaration for ninety-nine counties as a result of Hurricane Ike, beginning on September 7, 2008, and continuing.  The Governor is requesting Individual and Public Assistance, including direct Federal assistance for ninety-nine counties, and Hazard Mitigation statewide. The Governor further requests an increase in the federal cost share from 75% to 100% funding.

On September 12, 2008, the Governor of Louisiana has requested an expedited major disaster declaration.  The Governor is requesting Individual and Public Assistance for 64 parishes, and Hazard Mitigation statewide. The Governor further requests an increase in the federal cost share to 100%. (FEMA HQ)