000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052158
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JAN 05 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...06N77W TO
06N110W TO 05N125W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 01N TO 06N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W. SCATTERED
MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 128W...AND
BETWEEN 135W AND 138W.
OTHER CONVECTION NORTH OF THE ITCZ...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 118W AND 124W.
...DISCUSSION...
TRADES...
AN AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THIS WEEK...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE W OF 126W. A
CORRESPONDING 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N143W. NE
TRADES WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE NOTED OVER A LARGE AREA S OF THE
HIGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDING
FROM 14N125W TO 07N127W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE
EAST AND WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL
RELAXATION OF THE TRADE WINDS.
GULF OF PANAMA...
A 1011 MB LOW DEVELOPED S OF THE GULF OF PANAMA NEAR 06N78W.
CONVECTION IS S OF THE LOW CENTER. SEE ABOVE. 20 KT SW FLOW IS
NOTED. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT TO 06N81W IN 48 HOURS.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...
TRADEWINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND
...RESULTING IN 20-KT WINDS FROM 10N TO 11N E OF 89W. SEAS ARE
LESS THAN 8 FT. THESE WIND AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...
PRESENTLY WINDS AND SEAS ARE LOW IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...
HOWEVER A SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER N MEXICO AND THE NW GULF
OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO SURGE SOUTHEASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AND
PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A
SURFACE LOW IN SE ARIZONA IS RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20
KT ACROSS THE N GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE GREAT
BASIN HIGH.
$$
FORMOSA
000
AXNT20 KNHC 051743
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON JAN 05 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N20W TO EQUATOR AT 30N TO 1S50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF
AXIS E OF 20W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR 3N43W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A WEAK SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE GULF WATERS NEAR 26N96W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FRONT THE LOW SWD ACROSS THE FAR W GULF ENTERING MEXICO JUST N
OF TAMPICO. A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO STRETCHES FROM THE LOW
CENTER TO SE LOUISIANA. A ROPE CLOUD DELINEATES THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SE OVER THE NW GULF THROUGH TUE THEN WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION ON WED REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE WED. MODERATE TO STRONG NW-N WINDS OF 20
TO 30 KT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. UNTIL THEN...LIGHT TO MODERATE
SE FLOW AND MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER MUCH
OF THE GULF REGION COURTESY OF A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
TAMPICO REPORTED NLY WINDS OF 20 KT AROUND 1700 UTC INDICATING
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
CARIBBEAN...
HIGH PRES N OF AREA IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE BASIN. A RECENT QSCAT PASS SHOWED THE STRONGEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. AN AMPLIFIED
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE WEST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING NW FROM AN UPPER HIGH NEAR BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. UNDER THIS
PATTERN... WIDESPREAD DRY STABLE AIR IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY... ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE RIDGE. HOWEVER...AS USUAL
LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY IS PRODUCING PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS
ALONG 74W. NE WINDS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ARE TRANSPORTING SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. OTHERWISE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON THU.
ATLANTIC...
THE MID-UPPER PATTERN IS NEARLY WLY AND QUITE STRONG ACROSS THE
ATLC BASIN...WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
AND RIDGES. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE N OF
20N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W...MAINLY AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WHICH LIES ALONG 60W/61W. A JET-STREAM BRANCH WITH CORE WINDS OF
90-100 KT IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH ENTERING THE AREA
NEAR 31N72W THEN CROSSING JUST N OF THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO
THE TROPICAL N ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGH
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE W ATLC AND THE SE BAHAMAS WITH AXIS
ALONG 74W/75W. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS ISOLATED SHOWERS
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER LOW-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 31N45W TO 23N56W ENHANCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES COVERS THE FORECAST AREA ANCHORED BY A
1029 MB CENTER NEAR 33N28W AND A 1023 MB NEAR 29N67W. E WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KT ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE PERIPHERY OF THESE HIGHS OVER
THE DEEP TROPICS.
$$
GR
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051600
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JAN 05 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...06N77W TO
06N87W TO 05N95W TO 08N125W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
WITHIN 75 NM N OF AXIS FROM 133W TO 138W.
OTHER CONVECTION NORTH OF THE ITCZ...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 11N
TO 15N BETWEEN 114W AND 127W.
...DISCUSSION...
TRADES...
AN AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THIS WEEK...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE W OF 126W AND A
CORRESPONDING 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N143W. NE
TRADES WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT S OF THE HIGH ARE AFFECTING AREAS S
OF THE SURFACE HIGH. THESE WINDS ARE ENHANCED AROUND THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ
EXTENDING FROM 14N125W TO 08N127W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL RELAXATION OF THE TRADE WINDS.
GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA...
THE TRADE WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND
PANAMA...RESULTING IN 20-KT WINDS AROUND THOSE LOCATIONS. THE
TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SEA HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 12 FT
THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH SIMILAR WAVE HEIGHTS IN NORTHWESTERLY
SWELL ARRIVING FROM THE N PACIFIC BY MIDWEEK.
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW U.S. INTO THE E PACIFIC
REGION...AND IS FORECAST TO BE EJECTED EASTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK.
WHEN THIS TROUGH CATCHES UP TO A SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM N MEXICO INTO THE NW GULF...THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO SURGE SOUTHEASTWARD FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE HIGH OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO BY LATE WEEK. CORRESPONDINGLY...NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL LIKELY INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A
SURFACE LOW IN SE ARIZONA IS RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20
KT ACROSS THE N GULF OF CALIFORNIA BASED ON A RECENT ASCAT PASS.
THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT DAY WITH THE
WEAKENING OF THE GREAT BASIN HIGH.
$$
COHEN/CHRISTENSEN
000
AXNT20 KNHC 051128
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 05 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
8N11W 2N30W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 52W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
3N TO 5N BETWEEN 12W AND 14W...AND FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 45W
AND 49W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 6W AND 26W...AND SOUTH OF 8N WEST OF 40W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA. A SHALLOW
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE
WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO JUST SOUTH OF THE
LOWER VALLEY OF TEXAS INTO MEXICO...CURVING NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND
THE THE AREA IN MEXICO THAT IS JUST SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NORTH OF 28N82W 28N90W 24N99W. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS ELSEWHERE. THE SHORTWAVE
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS CYCLONIC TURNING FROM JUST NORTH OF CUBA
TO 25N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W...AND ALONG THE MEXICO COAST FROM
20N TO 24N BETWEEN 96W AND 99W.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 15N754W 13N76W 9N76W. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM COLOMBIA TO 15N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE EVERYWHERE. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 40W...
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT/STATIONARY
FRONT WHOSE SOUTHERNMOST POINTS ARE JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N47W 29N50W
25N56W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 73W/74W FROM 21N TO 26N.
AREAS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 76W. PATCHES OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH
OF 20N BETWEEN 35W AND 78W. SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 25N46W 29N35W
BEYOND 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N25W.
$$
MT
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050915
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JAN 05 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...05N77W TO
06N105W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND PERU SOUTH OF 04N. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM
129W TO 138W.
OTHER CONVECTION NORTH OF THE ITCZ...SCATTERED MODERATE WITH
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 11N TO 16N
FROM 116W TO 121W. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH
MENTIONED IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH.
...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE IS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA N OF 20N
WEST OF 130W. ELSEWHERE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM 10N140W TO
09N130W TO BEYOND 32N106W A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PREDOMINATES. BOTH
THE AREA OF THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH IS CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER LEVELS WITH SOME MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH
OF 25N FROM 120W TO 135W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS ARE
OBSERVED IN THE LOWER LEVELS IN THIS REGION. A PLUME OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND MULTIPLE LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDS 660 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF 130W. THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
ARE FLOWING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO. SOUTHEAST OF THE
PLUME OF MOISTURE...THAT IS THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM
25N98W TO 06N120W TO 00N140W...IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS AND ALSO THE LOWER LEVELS EXCEPT SOUTH
OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 112W WHERE OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS PREVAIL
AND ALSO THE CONVECTION NEAR THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND PERU.
THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE BUT WEAKEN THROUGH 48
HOURS.
THE PLUME OF MOISTURE AND OTHER AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
TROUGH ARE UNDER BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS.
MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 12N WEST OF 115W. REMAINDER
OF THE AREA IS ANALYZED AS BROAD SURFACE TROUGH.
GAP WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
REGION. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE INTERMITTENT WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE SEAS WILL BE
LESS THAN 8 FT DUE TO THE INTERMITTENT NATURE OF THE WINDS AND
THE LIMITED FETCH.
NW TO N WINDS OF 20 KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF
29N. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD TO THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE GULF TODAY THEN FALL TO LESS THAN 20 KT LATER TONIGHT.
$$
LL
000
AXNT20 KNHC 050606
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 05 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
8N10W 2N30W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 51W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
3N TO 6N BETWEEN 13W AND 17W...AND FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN
51W AND 52W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT HUGS THE COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS FROM
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO 27N ALONG THE TEXAS COAST...CURVING
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY OF TEXAS BEYOND THE TEXAS
BIG BEND. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18N74W 14N77W 10N76W. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE EVERYWHERE.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 40W...
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT/STATIONARY
FRONT WHOSE SOUTHERNMOST POINTS ARE JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA BETWEEN
60W AND 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N47W 29N50W 25N56W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 72W/73W FROM 22N TO 27N. AREAS OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
ARE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 37W AND 78W.
$$
MT
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050345
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JAN 05 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...03N77W TO
06N90W TO 06N110W TO 11N124W TO 07N131W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 117W AND 125W.
...DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFYING DEEP LAYERED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CUT-OFF
LOW NEAR 31N115W SWWD TO A BASE NEAR 14N135W. THE TROUGH IS
SWINGING EWD AT 15-20 KT AND IS FORECAST TO TO MOVE ACROSS NRN
MEXICO THROUGH 48 HOURS. LARGE DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE WELL NW
OF THE AREA NEAR 34N143W DOMINATES THE REGION W OF THE TROUGH
NOTED ABOVE WITH MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL NLY FLOW
SWEEPING INTO THE AREA ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE.
AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT WAS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20N123W THROUGH 19N140W.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED JUST OUT OF THE AREA
NEAR 32N143W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM THE HIGH TO 18N112W. FRESH
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE INDICATED S OF THE RIDGE TO 10N AND
GENERALLY W OF 125W. QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATED 25 TO 30 KT WINDS
IN THE AREA.
OVER THE TROPICS...WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILED
E OF 115W. SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS OCCURRING N OF THE ITCZ TO
25N AND E OF THE DIGGING TROUGH NOTED ABOVE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SW WINDS WERE ADVECTING MULTI-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD OVER
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL MEXICO. THE CLOUDS ARE
DISSIPATING ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTAL.
LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED GAP WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT
CONTINUING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. THE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE INTERMITTENT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE SEAS MAY REACH 8 FT DUE TO THE INTERMITTENT
NATURE OF THE WINDS AND THE LIMITED FETCH.
NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ALSO CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA REGION
WITH WINDS APPROACHING 20 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. THESE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT LATER TONIGHT.
LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO INDICATED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29N. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN 8 FT. THESE WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD
TO N OF 24N BETWEEN 24 AND 48 HOURS.
$$
FORMOSA
000
AXNT20 KNHC 042308
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN JAN 04 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N13W 4N24W 3N34W 2N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS E OF 23W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY ENTERED THE NW WATERS AS LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC DATA SUGGEST ITS PRESENCE ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER TEXAS BUT SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS NOTED
FARTHER NE POSSIBLY INFLUENCED BY A WAVE OF LOW PRES ALONG THE
FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ONLY DRIFT SE OR POSSIBLY STALL
OVER THE FAR NW WATERS TONIGHT AND MON AS IT LOSES ITS UPPER
SUPPORT...BENEATH A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. BY MON
NIGHT AND TUE...THE FRONT WILL BECOME REINFORCED BY AN EWD
MOVING TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SW CONUS AND WILL THEN MOVE
RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. UNTIL THEN...LIGHT TO MODERATE
SE FLOW AND MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE.
CARIBBEAN...
A AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...
EXTENDING NW FROM AN UPPER HIGH NEAR PANAMA...AND TROUGHING IS
ESTABLISHED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN IS LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD DRY STABLE AIR AS REVEALED ON WV IMAGERY...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE RIDGE AND IN THE CONFLUENT AREA BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS USUAL LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS...BENEATH THE CAP...WHICH ARE
BEING DRIVEN W BY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES. THE SHALLOW
CLOUDINESS HAS SOME STRUCTURE BETWEEN 72W AND 80W...DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH ALONG 76W. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO FIZZLE...OTHERWISE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ATLANTIC...
THE MID-UPPER PATTERN IS NEARLY WLY AND QUITE STRONG ACROSS
THE ATLC BASIN...THOUGH THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND RIDGES. THIS FLOW IS SPREADING ABUNDANT
CLOUDINESS N OF 22N W OF 45W. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE APPEARS TO
BE IN THE FORM OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT A DEVELOPING WEAK
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS IS PROVIDING LIFT
TRIGGERING HIGHLY SHEARED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM
23N-26N BETWEEN 67W-72W. ANOTHER LOW-LEVEL TROUGH FROM 31N49W TO
28N53W IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 300 NM E
OF ITS AXIS. OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB
CENTER NEAR 34N25W AND A 1022 MB NEAR 29N72W DOMINATE THE SFC
PATTERN.
$$
CANGIALOSI
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042200
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JAN 04 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...05N77W TO
05N100W TO 10N124W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 10N TO
14N BETWEEN 121W AND 125W.
...DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFYING DEEP LAYERED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CUT-OFF
LOW NEAR 30N117W SWWD TO A BASE NEAR 16N130W. THE TROUGH IS
SWINGING EWD AT 15-20 KT AND IS FORECAST TO TO MOVE ACROSS NRN
MEXICO THROUGH 48 HOURS. LARGE DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE WELL NW
OF THE AREA NEAR 33N143W DOMINATES THE REGION W OF THE TROUGH
NOTED ABOVE WITH MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL NLY FLOW
SWEEPING INTO THE AREA ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE.
AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT WAS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20N123W THROUGH 19N140W.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED JUST OUT OF THE AREA
NEAR 32N144W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM THE HIGH TO 20N112W. FRESH
TRADE WINDS WERE INDICATED S OF THE RIDGE TO 12N AND GENERALLY W
OF 125W. QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATED STEADY 25 KT WINDS IN THE
AREA.
OVER THE TROPICS...WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILED
E OF 115W. SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS OCCURRING N OF THE ITCZ TO
25N AND E OF THE DIGGING TROUGH NOTED ABOVE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SW WINDS WERE ADVECTING MULTI-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD OVER
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL MEXICO. THE CLOUDS ARE
DISSIPATING ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTAL.
LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED GAP WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT
CONTINUING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. THE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE INTERMITTENT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE SEAS MAY REACH 8 FT DUE TO THE INTERMITTENT
NATURE OF THE WINDS AND THE LIMITED FETCH.
NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ALSO CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA REGION
WITH WINDS APPROACHING 20 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. THESE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT LATER TONIGHT.
LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO INDICATED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29N. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN 8 FT. THESE WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORMOSA
000
AXNT20 KNHC 041813
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 04 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 08N13W 03N30W 01N50W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXITING THE NE GULF AND MOVING
EAST ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA...ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORMS SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA DISSIPATED SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE...LEAVING A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS N OF 27N AND E OF 80W
WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NE GULF AS THE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION OF A
120 KT JET MOVING INTO THE AREA. AREAS OF SEA FOG WITH
VISIBILITIES BELOW 2 MILES BLANKET MUCH OF THE TEXAS COAST.
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT SWIRL SE OF TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR
21N97W AT THE SOUTHERN END OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
FROM S TEXAS...AGREEING WITH AREA OBSERVATIONS HINTING OF A 1009
MB SURFACE LOW IN THE AREA. BUOYS AND QUIKSCAT SHOW LIGHT TO
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND
HIGH PRES NOSING IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLC. A COLD FRONT NOW OVER
SE TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF LATER TODAY...THEN STALL
FROM SE LOUISIANA TO S TEXAS MON. A REINFORCING FRONT PUSHES IN
TUE...REACHING SE OF THE AREA BY MIDWEEK.
CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 70W
AHEAD OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 85W. A
SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE IS MOVING WEST
ACROSS 74W. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED S OF HAITI.
QUIKSCAT SHOWS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES MAINLY E OF THE TROUGH.
THE TROUGH DISSIPATES LATER TODAY AS UPPER SUPPORT WEAKENS.
SURFACE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA MAINTAINS FRESH TRADES THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
ATLANTIC...
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N53W TO PUERTO RICO IS WEAKENING AND
LIFTING NE AHEAD OF UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
ATLC...SUPPORTING A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 28N70W. FURTHER
EAST...AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG ROUGHLY 40W...BETWEEN THE
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CANARY
ISLANDS. THE UPPER RIDGE IS SUPPORTING A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES...DOMINATING THE EASTERN ATLC. BUOYS
AND QUIKSCAT SHOWS A BROAD SWATH OF FRESH TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF
THE SURFACE HIGH PRES.
$$
CHRISTENSEN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041606
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JAN 04 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ALONG THE LINE...03N79W
TO 05N100W TO 10N121W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 09N TO
13N BETWEEN 122W AND 130W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF 5.5N78W.
...DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFYING DEEP LAYERED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CUT-OFF
LOW NEAR 30N119W SWWD TO A BASE NEAR 19N129W. THE TROUGH IS
SWINGING EWD AT 15-20 KT AND IS FORECAST TO TO MOVE ACROSS NRN
MEXICO THROUGH 48 HOURS. LARGE DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE WELL NW
OF THE AREA NEAR 35N146W DOMINATES THE REGION W OF THE TROUGH
NOTED ABOVE WITH MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL NLY FLOW
SWEEPING INTO THE AREA ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE.
AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT WAS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20N125W THROUGH 21N140W AND WRAPPED
INTO THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 30N134W TO 26N125W TO 21N115W.
MODERATE TO FR4SH TRADE WINDS WERE INDICATED S OF THE RIDGE TO
12N AND GENERALLY W OF 125W. LAST NIGHTS QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATED
STEADY 25 KT WINDS IN THE AREA.
OVER THE TROPICS...WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILED E OF 115W.
SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS OCCURRING N OF THE ITCZ TO 25N AND E OF
THE DIGGING TROUGH NOTED ABOVE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SW WINDS WERE
ADVECTING MULTI-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL MEXICO. THE CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING ON THE
WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED GAP WINDS OF 20
TO 25 KT CONTINUING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. THE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE INTERMITTENT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE SEAS MAY REACH 8 FT DUE TO THE
INTERMITTENT NATURE OF THE WINDS AND THE LIMITED FETCH.
NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ALSO CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA REGION
WITH WINDS APPROACHING 20 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. THESE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT LATER TODAY.
$$
COBB
000
AXNT20 KNHC 041135
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN JAN 04 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 4N26W 4N42W 1N52W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO
JUST S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 20W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS GIVING THE GULF
STRONG WLY FLOW WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS
THE N GULF. A JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 80-110 KT WITHIN 150/200
NM OF A LINE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND S LOUISIANA INTO THE GULF
NEAR 30N90W TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR TAMPA. A
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OVER ALABAMA AND GEORGIA A BAND
OF HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE N GULF COAST WITHIN
45 NM OF LINE FROM 28N87W OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN
PENSACOLA AND PANAMA CITY. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W
ATLC COVERS THE E GULF WITH SLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE
COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF. A SURFACE FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS GIVING THE NE GULF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N E OF 90W TO OVER FLORIDA. SE
SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FLORIDA
STRAITS BETWEEN CUBA AND 25N BETWEEN 79W-84W INCLUDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR IS GIVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF LATE TODAY/TONIGHT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA COVERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE E PORTION
OF SOUTH AMERICA IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SW TO
W UPPER FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE
AREA W OF 70W. MODERATE/STRONG ELY TRADE WINDS ARE SUPPLYING THE
E CARIBBEAN WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COUPLED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE ABC ISLANDS ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 67W-72W. THESE
TRADE WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE PRODUCING FAST MOVING
ISOLATED SHOWERS SE OF A LINE FROM SW HAITI TO COSTA RICA TO
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE NW CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER CLEAR
THIS MORNING.
ATLANTIC...
STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC WITH A WEAKENING
JET STREAM OF 80-100 KT WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS
FLORIDA NEAR VERO BEACH TO 23N67W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS
THE AREA N OF 25N FROM 50W-65W WITH THE ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE N PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH 32N60W 31N67W
THEN NW TO INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS
IN CONTROL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC INTO THE E GULF OF
MEXICO WITH A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N70W. FARTHER TO THE E...A
REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N45W
TO 26N59W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120/150 NM SE OF
THE TROUGH AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE TROUGH E OF 52W. AN UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE AREA S OF 30N FROM 30W-60W AND A SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 35N24W
BRIDGING THE ABOVE FRONT/TROUGH AND GIVING THE E ATLC FAIR
WEATHER THIS MORNING.
$$
WALLACE
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040918
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JAN 04 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ALONG THE LINE...04N77W
TO 06N105W TO 08N120W TO 08N140W. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.
...DISCUSSION...
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE PACIFIC OCEAN REGION AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE A LITTLE EAST THROUGH 48 HOURS AND BE OVER
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN MEXICO. MULTI LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS
MOSTLY EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH IS ALONG 121W. THE
CLOUDINESS IS MOVING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND IS ALSO
ADVECTING OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES.
A MORE EXTENSIVE MAINLY UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA NORTH OF A LINE FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND REGION
NEAR 30N102W TO 18N125W TO 16N140W. NORTH OF THIS LINE...EXCEPT
FOR THE SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE...THE AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD
FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. THE LOWER LEVELS NORTH OF
THIS LINE TO 21N ARE COVERED IN OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS WITH
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS NORTH OF 21N.
REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS UNDER WEAK
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS OCCURRING NORTH OF
THE ITCZ TO 17N FROM 113W TO 123W. ASSOCIATED MULTI LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ARE ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL MEXICO. THE CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING
ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. THE AREA
EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR 24N98W TO 16.5N110W TO 07N115W TO
05N140W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE EXCEPT FOR OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS
IN THE LOWER LEVELS SOUTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 120W.
MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 115W. ELSEWHERE A
BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT THE SURFACE. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
GAP WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
REGION. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE INTERMITTENT WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 8 FT DUE TO THE INTERMITTENT NATURE
OF THE WINDS AND THE LIMITED FETCH.
NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ALSO CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA REGION
WITH WINDS APPROACHING 20 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. THESE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT TODAY.
$$
LL
000
AXNT20 KNHC 040534
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 04 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 4N23W 5N40W 2N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE
ITCZ FROM 16W-19W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 5N TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 18W TO ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS GIVING THE GULF
STRONG WLY FLOW WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS
THE N GULF. A JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 80-110 KT CROSSES THE N
GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING E
OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PRODUCING AN SQUALL LINE THAT EXTENDS
FROM SE GEORGIA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BETWEEN PANAMA CITY
AND PENSACOLA INTO THE GULF TO NEAR 29N87W. THIS SHORTWAVE IS
ALSO GENERATING A BAND OF HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE N GULF COAST WITHIN 30 NM OF 30N FROM THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA
BORDER TO INLAND OVER SE LOUISIANA MOVING E AT ROUGHLY 30 KT. A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC COVERS THE E GULF WITH SLY
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF. UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS COMBINING WITH MOISTURE ALOFT AND
CONVERGENCE WITH THE S SURFACE FLOW IS GIVING THE THE NE GULF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N E
OF 87W TO OVER FLORIDA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR IS
GIVING THE S GULF CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF LATE SUN.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA COVERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE E PORTION
OF SOUTH AMERICA IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SW TO
W UPPER FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE
AREA W OF 70W GIVING THAT AREA TRANQUIL WEATHER TONIGHT.
MODERATE/STRONG ELY TRADE WINDS ARE SUPPLYING THE E CARIBBEAN
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COUPLED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS ALONG 18N70W TO 13N71W ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
E OF 70W TO ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.
ATLANTIC...
STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE W ATLC WITH A JET STREAM OF
80-100 KT WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR WEST
PALM BEACH TO 24N70W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF
26N FROM 50W-70W WITH THE ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST N
OF THE REGION. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC INTO THE E
GULF OF MEXICO WITH A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 29N75W AND A 1021 MB
HIGH NEAR 27N64W. A WEAKNESS IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS
BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGHS ALONG 25N71W ACROSS THE TURKS AND
CAICOS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FARTHER TO THE E...A WEAKENING
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N40W TO
31N42W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO 28N47W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT/TROUGH
N OF 28N. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA S OF 30N FROM 30W-50W
AND A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH
NEAR 35N24W BRIDGING THE ABOVE FRONT/TROUGH AND GIVING THE E
ATLC FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT.
$$
WALLACE
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040345
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JAN 04 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0100 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ALONG THE LINE...05N79W
TO 04N82W TO 05N86W TO 04N98W TO 10N118W TO 10N124W TO 08N129W
TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS
OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM OF 04.5N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 140W. ALSO...NUMEROUS MODERATE WITH
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LOW LEVEL TROUGH FROM 11N122W TO 16.5N113W.
...DISCUSSION...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
MOVING ESE INTO INTERIOR CALIFORNIA...WITH THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH DIGGING SSE TO NEAR 26N125W. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE...A TUTT AXIS STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS...WSW ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA...THEN SW TO
21N134W...CONTINUING NW TO 25N145W AND BEYOND. THIS TUTT HAS
BEEN MEANDERING ACROSS THIS GENERAL ZONE FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS...WITH SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING WITHIN AND N OF THE AXIS FOR A
FEW DEGREES. AS THE SHORTWAVE DIGS FURTHER SE AND SLOWS DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED TO REINFORCE THE TUTT AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED WEAKNESS THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE TROPICS ALONG 125W. ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW LEVEL
TROUGH FROM 11N122W TO 16.5N113W WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT
FAVORABLY WITH BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENCE OCCURRING E OF 125W TO
MAINTAIN ACTIVE AND DEEP CONVECTION THERE.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT
SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO N PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM
28N115W TO 23.5N130W TO 25.5N140W. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 25N DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS WIND FIELD WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE PERIOD NW
WIND SWELL. THE FRONTAL REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
WITHIN 12 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS. PERSISTENT UPPER
DIFFLUENCE REMAINS NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 110W TO 125W AND
CONTINUES TO ENHANCE ITCZ CONVECTION. ASSOCIATED MULTI LEVEL
CLOUDS EXTEND NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO 20N THEN TURN NORTHEAST AND
ARE FLOWING ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A
MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 14N WEST OF 112W. THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 11N122W TO 16.5N113W IS FORECAST TO MOVE
LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NW OF
THIS LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD ZONE OF FRESH TO
STRONG N TO NE WINDS...W OF 125W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
SEAS 9 TO 13 FT...IN STEEP NE WIND SWELL AND FADING NW SWELL.
GAP WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION...ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT OVERNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL
WIND SURGE IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN CROSSES CENTRAL AMERICA.
HOWEVER...WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA AREA EXPECTED TO PULSE UP AND
DOWN THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH STRONGEST WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH
NOON SUNDAY. SEA WILL LIKELY BUILD 8 TO 9 FT OVERNIGHT.
NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ALSO CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA REGION
WITH WINDS APPROACHING 20 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. THESE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT ON SUNDAY.
$$
STRIPLING
000
AXNT20 KNHC 032341
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT JAN 03 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N23W 4N40W 3N52W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 5W-16W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF REGION...WITH
MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE N GULF. A 100-KT
UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM IS CENTERED OVER THE NRN GULF AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS COMBINING WITH
MOISTURE ACROSS THE N GULF TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 84W-93W. AT THE SAME TIME...RETURN FLOW
AROUND A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 28N73W IS
BRINGING SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF
REGION. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SW GULF IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE S
GULF. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF LATE
SUNDAY.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
SW TO W UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS BROAD UPPER RIDGE
IS ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH IN NRN GUYANA NEAR 6N59W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WNW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER RIDGE AND IS RESULTING IN FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. GREATER
MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND
SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 63W-70W. MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH AREA OF
STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
ATLANTIC...
ACROSS THE W ATLC...STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT IN THE
BASE OF UPPER TROUGHING WITH DEEP CONVECTION BEING INHIBITED BY
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR...AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1021 MB
SURFACE HIGH NEAR 28N73W. FARTHER TO THE E...A WEAKENING
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 25N60W TO
31N41W...AND AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT BEYOND 31N41W TO THE NE.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THESE FRONTS. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE N OF 20N BETWEEN 35W-50W AND A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING SW TO 16N50W FROM A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR
34N25W IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE E ATLC. ACROSS THE FAR ERN ATLC...AN UPPER TROUGH IS
N OF 21N AND E OF 26W...THOUGH DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS INHIBITING
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THIS FEATURE. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED...WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.
$$
HUFFMAN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032246
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JAN 03 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ALONG THE LINE...05N79W
TO 04N82W TO 05N86W TO 04N98W TO 10N118W TO 10N124W TO 08N129W
TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS
OCCURRING OFF OF THE COLUMBIAN COASTLINE...WITHIN 90 NM OF
04.5N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS
OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND
140W....WHILE NUMEROUS MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LOW LEVEL TROUGH
FROM 11N122W TO 16.5N113W.
...DISCUSSION...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
MOVING ESE INTO CALIFORNIA...WITH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH
DIGGING SSE TO NEAR 28N125W. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS PROGRESSIVE
SHORT WAVE...A TUTT AXIS STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL TEXAS...WSW
ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA...THEN SW TO 20N135W...CONTINUING
NW TO 26N150W AND BEYOND. THIS TUTT HAS BEEN MEANDERING ACROSS
THIS GENERAL ZONE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH SUBSIDENCE
OCCURRING WITHIN AND N OF THE AXIS FOR A FEW DEGREES. AS THE
SHORTWAVE DIGS FURTHER SE AND SLOWS DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED TO REINFORCE THE TUTT AND ASSOCIATED DEEP
LAYERED WEAKNESS THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA TO THE TROPICS ALONG 125W. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO THE EAST OF A LOW LEVEL TROUGH FROM 11N122W TO 16.5N113W WILL
CONTINUE TO INTERACT FAVORABLY WITH BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENCE
OCCURRING E OF 128W TO MAINTAIN ACTIVE AND DEEP CONVECTION
THERE.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT SINKING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 31N116W TO 25.5N126W TO
28N140W. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS...
ACCOMPANIED BY A PULSE OF MODERATE PERIOD NW WIND SWELL. THE
FRONT... HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS
AND DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS. PERSISTENT UPPER
DIFFLUENCE REMAINS NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 110W TO 125W AND
CONTINUES TO ENHANCE ITCZ CONVECTION. ASSOCIATED MULTI LEVEL
CLOUDS EXTEND NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO 20N THEN TURN NORTHEAST AND
ARE FLOWING ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE... A
MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 14N WEST OF 112W. A WEAK AND
ELONGATED 1010 MB SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR 11N123.5W...AND
ANCHORS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS LOW LEVEL
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NW OF THIS LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A
BROAD ZONE OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS...W OF 125W DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH SEAS 9 TO 12 FT...AND POSSIBLY HIGHER...IN
STEEP NE WIND SWELL.
GAP WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
REGION...AND WILL PULSE UP AND DOWN THROUGH 48 HOURS. WINDS
THERE ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONGEST FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
NOON SUNDAY. BECAUSE OF THE INTERMITTENT NATURE OF THE WINDS AND
THE SHORT FETCH SEAS DOWNWIND ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 8 FT.
NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ALSO CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA REGION
WITH WINDS APPROACHING 20 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. THESE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT ON SUNDAY.
$$
STRIPLING
000
AXNT20 KNHC 031732
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT JAN 03 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N21W 3N32W 3N43W 2N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 6W-23W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 2N BETWEEN THE PRIME
MERIDIAN AND 18W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF REGION...WITH
MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE N GULF. A 120-KT
UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM IS CENTERED OVER N MEXICO AND S TEXAS.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THIS JET MAXIMUM IS
COMBINING WITH MOISTURE ACROSS THE N GULF TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 89W-95W. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE RETURN FLOW AROUND A SURFACE HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR
30N52W IS BRINGING SE TO S SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT ACROSS
THE GULF REGION. THESE SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF REGION...FURTHER ENHANCING THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE S GULF IS
INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE S GULF. FARTHER TO THE
N...A SURFACE FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION OF THE CONUS.
THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF LATE SUNDAY AS A
COLD FRONT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
SW TO W UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS BROAD UPPER RIDGE
IS ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH IN N GUYANA NEAR 7N59W.
SUBSIDENCE...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR...AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE ARE
RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE W AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. GREATER MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE E CARIBBEAN SEA IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 12N-17N
BETWEEN 62W-70W. ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NE TO E
SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT TO 30 KT ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA...ARE PRESENT.
ATLANTIC...
ACROSS THE W ATLC...STRONG SW TO W FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT IN THE
BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING INHIBITED
ACROSS THE W ATLC BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR...AND SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 30N52W. DURING THE
NEXT DAY...A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO FORM NEAR
29N70W. FARTHER TO THE E...A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 25N77W TO 25N61W TO 28N48W...AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 28N48W TO 29N44W TO 32N40W TO NE OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THESE FRONTS. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE N OF 21N BETWEEN 35W-50W AND A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 34N24W TO NEAR 13N42W
IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE E ATLC. FARTHER TO THE E...AN UPPER TROUGH IS N OF 22N E OF
28W...THOUGH DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THIS FEATURE. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...GENERALLY WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT...WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING
THE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ.
$$
COHEN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031553
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JAN 03 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...03N77W TO
06N95W TO 10N118W TO 09N133W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG WITHIN 75 NM OF 04N78.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 120-180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 125W.
...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES IS NORTH OF A LINE
FROM 32N105 TO 24120W TO 19N140W. MODERATE TO STRONG MID TO
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WAS OBSERVED N OF THIS LINE. THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND WILL BE REINFORCED AS
A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DIGS DOWN THE WEST COAST OF
CALIFORNIA AND MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROVIDING SUPPORT
FOR A COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 30N122W
TO 28N127W TO 30N138W. THE FRONT HOWEVER SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT 6 HOURS AND DISSIPATE WITHIN 12 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS
NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 110W TO 125W AND IS ENHANCING ITCZ
CONVECTION. ASSOCIATED MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS EXTEND NORTH OF THE
ITCZ TO 20N THEN TURNS NORTHEAST AND IS FLOWING OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO WITH AREAS OF OVERCAST MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED
CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN THE AREA FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 113W AND
118W. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH
OF 14N WEST OF 112W. WEAK SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N123W
1010 MB AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
GAP WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
REGION. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST FROM MIDNIGHT TO NOON.
BECAUSE OF THE INTERMITTENT NATURE OF THE WINDS AND THE SHORT
FETCH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 8 FT.
NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF PANAMA
REGION WITH WINDS APPROACHING 20 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO END SUNDAY.
$$
COBB
000
AXNT20 KNHC 031058
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT JAN 03 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N9W 4N18W 3N46W 2N52W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N TO
JUST S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 22W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL WLY ZONAL FLOW IS ACROSS THE GULF ADVECTING UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF N
OF 24N GENERATING SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS N OF 26N W OF 94W TO
INLAND OVER E TEXAS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 25N W OF 90W. A
JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 100 KT IS ALSO ACROSS THE N GULF
AND FLORIDA BETWEEN 24N AND 29N. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC GIVING THE ENTIRE GULF SLY
SURFACE RETURN FLOW. THIS IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY
S OF 26N E OF 87W. PATCHES OF FOG ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE
N GULF COAST STATES FROM TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO THE LOUISIANA/
TEXAS BORDER. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF
LATE SUN.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS GIVING THE
CARIBBEAN SW TO W UPPER FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN W OF 68W. THE REMNANTS OF
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAIN OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN GENERATING LOW/MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA S
OF 17N E OF 68W TO ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. ELSEWHERE...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE PRODUCING AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 79W-85W AND CONTINUE TO USHER IN ISOLATED
FAST MOVING SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.
ATLANTIC...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH DIPS S OVER THE W ATLC N OF 26N FROM 60W TO
THE NE FLORIDA. A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N55W. A DEEP LAYERED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL ATLC N OF THE REGION
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N41W TO
27N50W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE E BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ARE N OF 28N WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF THE
FRONT WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY W OF
45W. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 100 KT IS ACROSS THE W ATLC
WITHIN 150/200 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W 25N66W TO BEYOND 32N53W. UPPER WESTERLY
ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. E OF THE FRONT
OVER THE E ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH
NEAR 34N24W.
$$
WALLACE
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030920
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JAN 03 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...03N77W TO
07N110W TO 09N120W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE POINT 09.5N115W AND
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 11N117W.
...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES IS NORTH OF A LINE
FROM 32N106W TO 27N108W TO 24N120W TO 21N130W TO 19N140W. THE
AREA NORTH OF THIS LINE IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVELS WITH OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS
EXCEPT FOR A CLEAR AREA FROM 27N TO 29N W OF 127W. THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND BE REINFORCED AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN
REGION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS
NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 113W TO 124W AND IS ENHANCING ITCZ
CONVECTION. ASSOCIATED MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS EXTEND NORTH OF THE
ITCZ TO 15N THEN TURNS NORTHEAST AND IS FLOWING OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO WITH AREAS OF OVERCAST MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED
CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN THE AREA FROM 14N TO 16N FROM 113W TO 118W.
THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM 25N97.5W TO 15N110W TO 07N115W
TO 05N140W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.
IN THE LOWER LEVELS IT IS ALSO CLOUD FREE EXCEPT FOR BROKEN TO
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS SOUTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 111W AND FROM
115W TO 125W.
MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 14N WEST OF 112W. SURFACE LOW
IS CENTERED NEAR 10N123W 1010 MB AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
GAP WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
REGION. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST FROM MIDNIGHT TO NOON.
BECAUSE OF THE INTERMITTENT NATURE OF THE WINDS AND THE SHORT
FETCH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 8 FT.
NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF PANAMA
REGION WITH WINDS APPROACHING 20 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO END SUNDAY.
$$
LL
000
AXNT20 KNHC 030541
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT JAN 03 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS ANALYZED ALONG 11N13W 5N25W 2N40W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 6N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 2W-20W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE
FROM 6N41W TO 9N51W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL WLY ZONAL FLOW IS ACROSS THE GULF ADVECTING UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF N
OF 23N. A JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 95 KT IS ALSO ACROSS
THE N GULF AND FLORIDA BETWEEN 23N AND 29N. A SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE
W ATLC GIVING THE ENTIRE GULF SLY SURFACE RETURN FLOW. THIS IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY S OF 25N E OF 91W. PATCHES OF
FOG ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE N GULF COAST STATES FROM
TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO GALVESTON TEXAS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF LATE SUN.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS GIVING THE
CARIBBEAN SW TO W UPPER FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS IN THE SE CARIBBEAN ALONG 65W S OF 15N WITH WEAK CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF
16N E OF 67W TO ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 78W-83W AND CONTINUE TO USHER IN ISOLATED
FAST MOVING SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.
ATLANTIC...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH DIPS S OVER THE W ATLC N OF 28N FROM 65W TO
THE NE FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1020 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF BERMUDA NEAR 30N65W. A DEEP LAYERED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL ATLC N OF THE REGION
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N42W TO
25N70W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR
24N76W. A WEAKENING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N49W TO
23N59W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 28N WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE
FRONT WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY W OF
46W. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 110 KT IS ACROSS THE W ATLC
WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
NEAR 26N80W 26N69W TO BEYOND 32N32N59W. UPPER WESTERLY ZONAL
FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. E OF THE FRONT OVER
THE E ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH
NEAR 34N26W.
$$
WALLACE
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030333
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JAN 03 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0030 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...06N77W TO
03N80W TO 05N87W TO 11N117W TO 10N127W TO 07N140W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS ALONG THE COLUMBIAN COAST FROM 04N TO
06N. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS
OCCURRING FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 126W AND 112W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN
132W AND 127W.
...DISCUSSION...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OVER EXTREME N MEXICO NEAR 29N106W...WEST
SOUTHWESTWARD TO A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 22N133W.
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED WITHIN 120-240 NM N OF
THE TROUGH AXIS...AND 60 NM S OF THE TROUGH. A SHARPENING
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS DIGGING SE INTO THE NW COAST OF THE
U.S. AND IS FCST TO DIG FURTHER SSE INTO N PORTIONS OF THE AREA
BEYOND 36 HOUR...AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE SAT
WITH FRESHENING NW TO N WINDS AROUND 20 KT BUILDING BEHIND THE
FRONT SAT NIGHT AND SUN. AT THE SURFACE...1029 MB HIGH PRES NW
OF THE AREA NEAR 32N147W WITH ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE EXTENDING SE
THROUGH 27N130W TO 20N110W. THE MODERATE PRES GRADIENT S OF THE
RIDGE IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES FROM
12N TO 22N...W OF 125W. TRADES MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO NEAR 30
KT W OF 135W BY SUN AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
TROPICAL EPAC ALONG 116W TONIGHT...AND IS AIDING IN THE
SHARPENING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH NEAR 22N133W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND A BROAD DIFFLUENT ZONE WAS AIDING IN
MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF TWO LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WAVES...ONE JUST INCHING ALONG NEAR 127W...AND THE
OTHER ALONG 119W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE W
COAST OF THE U.S. TONIGHT IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHERN BAJA BY
48 HOURS...AND WILL ACT TO REINFORCE THIS MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING EXTENDING INTO THE TROPICS BETWEEN 135W AND 130W.
INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGHING BY THESE TWO EASTERLY WAVES...AMPLE
MOISTURE...AND A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH THERE WILL MAINTAIN
ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION E OF 130W THROUGH 36
HOURS...AND AS INDICATED ABOVE...MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE N AND NW.
GAP WINDS...
GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE FALLEN BELOW 20 KT.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...N TO NE GAP WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GULF OF PANAMA FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...BEFORE SUBSIDING.
$$
STRIPLING
000
AXNT20 KNHC 022336
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 02 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N25W 4N40W 2N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 16W-25W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE
FROM 5N39W TO 9N50W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW IS ACROSS THE GULF ADVECTING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO AND THE
GULF N OF 23N. A JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 70 TO 90 KT IS ALSO
ACROSS THE GULF AND FLORIDA BETWEEN 23N AND 28N. A SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE GULF ANCHORED ON A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE
W ATLC NEAR 32N70W GIVING THE ENTIRE GULF SOUTHERLY SURFACE
RETURN FLOW. THIS IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND ACROSS
THE GULF COAST SHORE N OF 30N. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO ENTER THE GULF LATE SUN.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS GIVING THE
CARIBBEAN SW TO W UPPER FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70. IN THE SE
CARIBBEAN...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 65W S OF 15N WITH WEAK
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. LOW-MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE SE
CARIBBEAN E OF 68W AND ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER IN PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N AND E OF
65W AND ALSO OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 77W-84W.
ATLANTIC...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 32N70W. A DEEP LAYERED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC MOSTLY N OF 30N BETWEEN 38W-55W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N44W
TO 24N70W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO OVER THE SE BAHAMAS
NEAR 24N77W. A WEAKENING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N51W
TO 23N58W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 28N WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE
FRONT WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BETWEEN 48W-77W. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 100 KT IS
ACROSS THE W ATLC N OF 24N FROM ACROSS FLORIDA TO NEAR 50W.
UPPER WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. E
OF THE FRONT IN THE ERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A
1025 MB HIGH NEAR 31N28W.
$$
HUFFMAN
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