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Sep 15, 2008 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Mon Sep 15 07:28:43 UTC 2008  (Print Version)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
  |  
SPC Day 3 0730Z Categorical Outlook SPC Day 3 0730Z Categorical Outlook Legend
 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 150725
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0225 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2008
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPR TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE ERN STATES ON WEDNESDAY WILL
   BEGIN TO WEAKEN...WITH MORE ROBUST PORTION OF THE TROUGH OVER SE
   CANADA/NEW ENGLAND ASSOCD WITH A POLAR VORTEX OVER JAMES BAY. 
   MEANWHILE...SRN PORTIONS OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SRN
   APLCNS/SERN STATES AS A MOBILE UPR HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE MS VLY
   FROM THE PLNS STATES.  TO THE W...MODELS VARY ON THE EVOLUTION OF A
   COMPLEX TROUGH APCHG/ALONG THE W CST.  LEAD WAVE EXPECTED TO EJECT
   INTO THE WRN GRT BASIN/PAC NW WILL EVENTUALLY PIVOT NWD AS A STRONG
   IMPULSE AMPLIFIES/DIGS SEWD TOWARD THE PAC NW CST BY THE END OF THE
   PD.
   
   IN THE LWR LVLS...A FRONT ALONG THE SE ATLC CST WILL REMAIN QSTNRY
   OVER N FL AND THE NRN GULF BASIN THROUGH THE PD.  THIS FRONT AND
   SEABREEZES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR NON-SVR TSTMS.  
   
   ...INTERMOUNTAIN W/NW GRT BASIN...
   LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY STREAM FROM THE LWR CO RVR VLY NWD INTO
   PARTS OF NV AND UT BY WEDNESDAY AFTN.  SRN PERIPHERY OF THE
   AFOREMENTIONED NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH WILL SKIRT E NV/UT DURING THE
   DAY AND MAY BE IMPETUS FOR TSTMS.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
   GUSTY WINDS AS THEY WILL LIKELY BE HIGH-BASED.  IF FORCING FOR
   ASCENT ENDS UP BEING MORE ROBUST THAN EXPECTED...THERE EVENTUALLY
   COULD BE A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SEMI-ORGANIZED TSTMS. 
   HOWEVER...MODEL SPREAD WITH THE HANDLING OF THE LEAD UPR WAVE IS
   HIGH AND THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL PRECLUDE AN ADDITION OF SVR
   PROBABILITIES ATTM.
   
   ..RACY.. 09/15/2008
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: September 15, 2008
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