Canada has responded to the need for a better understanding of the impacts of climate change and potential adaptive response by undertaking a national assessment - The Canada Country Study: Climate Impacts and Adaptation (completed in 1998) - and a focused national effort on identifying impacts and adaptation options - the establishment and administration of the Science, Impacts and Adaptation component of the Climate Change Action Fund (to be completed by March 2001).

The Canada Country Study (CCS): Climate Impacts and Adaptation was the first Canadian assessment of the potential impacts of climate change and variability, including consideration of existing and potential adaptive responses. This assessment focused on reviewing existing scientific and technical literature through a series of commissioned studies and regional workshops. The result of this initial work is state-of-the-art information for Canada on the sensitivities and vulnerabilities of Canada's economic sectors, social well-being, and ecological systems to projected changes in climate (see web site http://www.ec.gc.ca/climate/ccs).

The results of this initial assessment are published in eight CCS volumes - six regional volumes (Arctic, Atlantic, Ontario, Pacific and Yukon, Prairies, and Québec), a national sectoral volume consisting of twelve papers (agriculture, built environment, energy, fisheries, forestry, human health, insurance, recreation and tourism, transportation, unmanaged ecosystems, water resources, and wetlands) and a cross-cutting issues volume consisting of eight papers (changing landscapes, costs, domestic trade and commerce, extra-territorial issues, extreme events, integrated air issues, sustainability, and two economies). The results are also summarized in seven plain language documents, one for each region and one at the national level.

The Canada Country Study results were based on a review of existing scientific and technical literature, the nature of which is two-fold. First, this literature includes studies of the sensitivity to and observed impacts of past and current climate. Secondly, it includes impact analyses based on scenarios of future climate change, mainly those projected by general circulation models of the atmosphere on the basis of a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide and assumptions reflecting the current understanding of the global climate system. As such, the identified impacts should not be seen as predictions but, rather, as indications of sensitivities and vulnerabilities associated with the projected change in climate. The diversity of these impacts and viable adaptation options, in addition to reflecting projected change in climate, reflect the geographic breadth and the environmental, economic and social diversity of Canada.

Some general conclusions resulting from this assessment are:

• Responding to the impacts of projected climate change in Canada will be significantly complicated by the consequences for Canada arising from those impacts projected for the international community, particularly our trading partners and competitors.

• The environmental, economic, and social costs associated with the impacts of and adaptation to current climate in Canada (including, for example, over a billion dollars annually in the water sector alone) are large, and projected changes in climate are expected to increase those costs.

• As Canada's prosperity and well-being is strongly linked to that of its natural ecosystems and water resources, the responses of these to projected climate change will be critical in determining the environmental, economic and social costs and benefits of climate change for Canada.

• The location, structure and functioning of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems would be altered as a result of expected changes in relative season length, species distribution, population, habitat, and competition between species, and their capacity to adapt would be tested by the fast, possibly irregular rate of warming.

• In addition to natural environmental influences, all socio-economic sectors would be impacted through additional stresses on physical and social infrastructure, ranging from altered building and construction practices to adjustments in health care to changes in subsistence lifestyles with their reliance on local knowledge.

• Harvest levels in the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sectors are sensitive to climate. Sustaining viable production levels will depend on the capacity of these sectors to cope with the projected rate of warming and changes in climate variability, as well as their ability to counter projected decreases in water availability and increased threats of competition, disease and other disturbances (e.g., fire).

• Adaptive capacity to climate conditions has historically been strong in such sectors as energy, transportation, and recreation and tourism, but the rate of projected warming and the prospects of future climate surprises would present serious challenges to that capacity.

• Considering Canada's vulnerability to extreme events, projected changes in their occurrence and severity would have serious ramifications for the security and integrity of our natural resources, social systems, and infrastructure with subsequent implications for the insurance industry and supporting public sectors.

• In some cases projected climate change would have positive impacts (e.g., longer growing season and lower heating demand), which could provide adaptive opportunities or could alleviate the pressures caused by other stresses (e.g., population change, other air issues, land-use alterations).

• Increased emphasis in climate impacts and adaptation research on integrated assessment, on linking with sustainable development research, and on involving stakeholders directly in research is essential for addressing gaps in our current level of understanding.

Through the Canada Country Study and its review of the existing scientific literature, two points became clear. We have a limited understanding of the range and extent of impacts of climate change on Canada and, as such, there is considerable work required to refine that understanding and to develop workable adaptation approaches. This work is necessary in defining a portfolio of responses to climate change that includes both adaptation and mitigation.

In 1998 the federal government established a multi-stakeholder process to develop a national implementation strategy to respond to the challenge of climate change. The strategy will address mitigation (emission reduction), adaptation and foundation work in climate science. A three-year C$150 million fund was established to support the strategy development process and to facilitate early action on climate change.

Activities under the CCAF (see web site www.climatechange.gc.ca for more details) have been divided into four components:

• Foundation Analysis (Issue Tables) - The development of a national implementation strategy via a multi-stakeholder consultation process.
• Science, Impacts and Adaptation - Targeted research to better understand climate processes and to assess the impact of climate change on the regions of Canada and the options for adaptation.
• Technology Early Action Measures- Cost-shared support for the development and deployment of emission-reducing technologies.
• Public Outreach- Public education and outreach activities directed at informing Canadians about climate change and encouraging them to take action.

The need to spur Canadian research required to fill the gaps identified in the Canada Country Study and other assessments has been recognized. Funds in the Impacts and Adaptation component of the CCAF support targeted research to better understand the impacts of climate change on regions and sectors of Canada, and to study the options for adaptation to changes in climate. Specific activities included as part of this component are:

• Research on the impacts of climate change on Canada - to provide an improved and useable understanding of the sensitivities and range and extent of the impacts of climate change on Canada and Canadians as a basis for the identification of various adaptive measures;
• Development of adaptation strategies - identification of the range of options available to address certain climate change impacts issues, collection of critical baseline information and, where applicable, the completion of case studies;
• Implementation of adaptation strategies - determining the socio-economic and environmental consequences of implementing various adaptation strategies that will have national implications and assessing the utility of various domestic instruments and policies for implementation;
• Report - to facilitate compliance and, through knowledge, implementation of adaptive measures; and
• Identification of economic opportunities made possible by development of adaptive strategies and potential technologies.

Local scale case studies that include assessments of impacts as well as the development of adaptation options are also being considered. It is expected that the impacts research will address the gaps in such a manner as to provide useful information for those who will use it in the development of adaptation options or strategies for particular sectors, communities or regions. A consistent set of climate scenarios as the basis for impacts and adaptation research in Canada is also being supported through this component of the CCAF. All research is to be completed by March 31, 2001.

Through the work of the Canada Country Study and the research being conducted under the Impacts and Adaptation component of the CCAF, it is becoming clear that we will have come a long way in identifying sensitivities and vulnerabilities to climate change in Canada. Yet, it is also apparent that there is more to do towards understanding the range and extent of impacts of climate change on Canada. Considerable research will be required to improve that understanding and to develop workable ways of adapting.

It is not enough, however, to solely improve our understanding of how climate will affect us, or to assess ways of adjusting to the inevitable. We also need to increase public awareness, to work with decision makers, to involve all stakeholders particularly at the regional and local levels - governments, scientists, researchers and citizens - in a shared learning and assessment experience.

For more information, contact:

Roger Street, Director, Adaptation and Impacts Research Group, Atmospheric Environment Service; 4905 Dufferin Street, Downsview, Ontario M3H 5T4, Canada; phone: (416) 739-4271; Fax: 416 739-4297; e-mail: roger.street@ec.gc.ca;