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Alaska
The assessment will be both qualitative and quantitative, focusing
on fisheries, transportation, forestry, subsistence, and wildlife. Transportation
affects virtually all aspects of life in Alaska. Impacts of climate change
and variability on wildlife will affect subsistence, tourism, recreation,
and the environment. These key issues may have implications for the Alaskan
economy. The assessment team has constructed climate scenarios from a
combination of GCM models and observed data trends. They will focus especially
on socioeconomic impacts and on outreach, particularly to native communities.
Appalachians-Central and Southern
Through a broad survey of the interests of government, NGOs, and businesses,
this assessment team will define key areas to assess. Currently, the team
is focusing on forests, water, and energy. In the context of these issues,
the assessment team will also examine commerce, ecosystems, human health,
air quality, and tourism as well as the impact of policies which are targeted
at climate related phenomena.
California
The assessment team plans to identify key sectors through the engagement
of the Steering Committee members. Team members envision a long-term assessment
effort which will involve model integration and business participation.
The team is focusing on water, health, forests,
agriculture, coastal, and urban areas and has identified four priority
research areas: integrated regional impacts modeling project, ecological
systems impacts assessment, communities and infrastructure impacts assessment,
and business and economic impacts.
Eastern Midwest
One of the main areas of focus for this assessment team is the effect
of climate change on agriculture in the region and how agriculture can
adapt to these changes. They have divided their region into twelve sub-sections
in order to more thoroughly examine this issue. They are using the Century
4.0 as a crop production model and the Purdue Crop Livestock Linear Program
(PC/LP) model for the analysis of farm level decisions. The team would
also like to address direct impacts and the impacts of adjustment policies
and intend to engage stakeholders from a wide range of sectors.
Great Lakes
Using the overlay approach for most sectors, the assessment team has
divided the assessment into two levels. In level I, information will be
compiled from recently completed studies. In level II of the assessment,
they will use GCM output, other climate change scenario information and
the information compiled in level I to assess the impacts of regional
climate change. Impact model simulations for corn, soybeans, and dairy
will be performed. Data from climate change scenarios will be used to
input into the GLERL Great Lakes Advanced Hydrolic Prediction Suite of
models to assess the impacts of climate change on the Great Lakes.
Great Plains --Central
The assessment team will conduct a quantitative assessment in which
stakeholders will be meaningfully engaged. The analysis will cover the
Great Basin region and the north, south, and central Great Plains, thus
providing data to other National Assessment regions. The team will focus
on water agricultural modeling, agricultural land use/adaptation, ranching
and rangeland production systems, and conservation areas. Using scenarios
and analog studies, an evaluation of ecosystem and agronomic responses
to climate changes will be conducted. A steering committee will form which
will include stakeholders from many sectors.
Great Plains-Northern
This assessment team intends to motivate actions to reduce the consequences
and seize the opportunities of climate change. In order to achieve this
goal, the assessment team will next take steps to compile more detailed
regional scenario information. The team is focusing on agriculture, forestry,
grasslands, education: K-12 and informal, water, extreme weather events,
teacher training, information creation and distribution. They would like
to hold annual workshops for the next three years to maintain stakeholder
involvement. Information which results from these workshops would be passed
on to the extensive network of stakeholders that is developing.
Great Plains-Southern
Emphasizing a long-term perspective on broadly based issues, workshop
coordinators intend to focus on the impacts of climate variability and
change on water, agriculture, and energy. The workshop will focus on three
hydrologic systems: the Rio Grande, the Texas-Gulf drainage, and the Arkansas-White-Red
drainage basin. They would like to assess the impacts of drought and water
abundance on an array of economic sectors and land uses. In the context
of assessing these impacts, they will be looking at urban and community
issues. The use of the historical record and other data will be important
to the region; however, acquisition of data may be difficult due to the
sparse data locations. The workshop will be held by the end of 1998.
Gulf Coast
The assessment team plans to focus on wetland ecosystems, bottomland
forests, fisheries, health, water and air quality, and urban problems.
The team will expand outreach to stakeholders through extensive media,
organization of town meetings, a focus on educational programs, and the
maintenance of an active web site. The key experts will be designated
to lead the assessment of each sector and to develop sectoral teams.
Metropolitan East Coast
Focusing on the interaction between knowledge, knowledge production,
and policy making, the assessment team will develop an action plan for
the region. Through the iteration between the production of impact scenarios
and stakeholder review, they will refine the assessment, time frames and
action plans. The team will concentrate on water resources, air resources,
land use, coastal marine, human health, ecosystem services, urban environments,
and infrastructure. They also intend to develop a regional climate impacts
network.
Middle-Atlantic
The assessment will be structured as an open process which encourages
stakeholder and researcher involvement. The Center for Integrated Regional
Assessment (CIRA) framework will be used as an assessment approach. The
assessment will focus on five sectors: water, coasts, health, forests,
and agriculture as well as cross-cutting issues such as biophysical (ecosystem)
impacts and human impacts (socio-economic), with a qualitative overview
and a quantitative assessment. Case studies focusing on different locations
and types will be used to illustrate the
potential impacts of climate change on the region.
Native Peoples, Native Homelands
The assessment team plans to provide a framework for the articulation
of the concerns of native peoples. The team intends to view the Earth
holistically as a living system, focusing on the impacts of climate change
and variability on water, human health, ecosystem/wilderness,
sovereignty/cultural integrity, subsistence, and emergency response. The
workshop is scheduled to be held October 29-November 1 in Albuquerque,
New Mexico.
New England
The assessment team would like to facilitate the development of a
dynamic partnership among regional research, service, industry, and end-user
communities that apply research methods and technologies. To foster this
partnership, they will develop an effective outreach program to address
important regional climate change and variability issues and concerns
and promote information transfer and public awareness. The assessment
team will reach out to business and industry leaders from the recreation
and tourist industries as well as leaders in agriculture and the energy
and utilities industries. They will also focus on government resource
management, human health, and natural resources.
Pacific Islands
Water availability and quality are important issues in this region
as islands are more limited in sources of water than other areas. The
impacts of extreme events and the impacts of other climate-related coastal
hazards are particularly important to assess because of the implications
for community planning, economic development and public safety. Changes
in terrestrial/coastal and marine ecosystems also produce a wide array
of implications and hence will be another focus of the assessment team.
The team will form critical partnerships to develop, communicate, and
use enhanced information to understand and respond to climate variability
and change.
Pacific Northwest
The assessment team is looking at the impacts of variability and change
on how natural systems and human systems interact. They are using a sophisticated
regional model driven by GCM and will base their approach to the assessment
upon climate dynamics. Their previous work has focused more on variability,
but they are now placing more emphasis on the study of change and thresholds.
They are specifically interested in the affects of the El Nino-Southern
Oscillation on seasonal-interannual timescales and the Pacific Decadal
Oscillation on inter-decadal timescales on region. The assessment team
has done in-depth study of forestry, water, agriculture, marine ecosystems,
and coastal issues. The team will continue studying these issues as well
as begin to assess the impacts on health and energy.
Rocky Mountains and Great Basin
The assessment team will work with focus groups to study water resources,
climatology, and other sectors to develop probability scenarios. The focus
groups will hold workshops which will produce scenarios and position papers.
Ecological modeling will be conducted jointly with the Great Plains. Emphasizing
the importance of montane snowpacks in the region, the team will assess
the effects of water availability and timing on cultivated agriculture
and ranching, skiing and tourism, natural ecosystems, and urban and industrial
use.
South Atlantic and Caribbean
The workshop coordinators emphasize that education can be used as
a method of transforming research findings into practical knowledge. They
will draw on rich cumulative experience in vulnerability analysis, hazard
assessment, hazard mitigation, and emergency management. They will also
focus on lessons learned during the response and recovery phases of several
disasters to include empirical knowledge in the socio-economic aspects
of climate scenarios. In an area which is highly vulnerable to coastal
hazards and known for a high level of coastal development, coastal impacts
and impacts on the tourism industry have emerged as important issues as
well as the impacts of climate change and variability on urban areas.
Southeast
Using linked ecophysiologic, hydrologic, and economic models along
with climate change scenarios, the assessment team is conducting quantitative
assessments on both agriculture and forestry which will be coordinated
with other regions to ensure coverage of the entire southeastern U.S.
The effects of climate variability and change on ground-level ozone production,
air quality, and non-attainment as well as on stream flow, runoff, and
water quality compliance will be assessed using historical and climate
scenarios. The team will examine the cross-cutting effects of water and
extreme climate events on these sectors.
Southwest-Colorado River Basin
Water, health, and urbanization have emerged as key issues in the
region. Utilizing tree-ring analyses, team members will examine the consequences
of extreme events and climate variation over the past 500 years in an
attempt to evaluate what the effects of these events would be if they
were to occur today. The team will continue outreach to stakeholders through
their web site and on-line discussion group. They will coordinate with
ongoing regional research activities to expand the scope of their assessment.
For example, in collaboration with the Institute for Study of Planet Earth
at the University of Arizona, they will analyze the contemporary climate
impacts in parts of New Mexico and Arizona.
Southwest-Rio Grande River Basin
The assessment team will collaborate closely with the Southern Great
Plains region and work to identify the areas of greatest vulnerability
in the region, especially those which may affect the health and water
sectors. They will use climate scenarios to assess the impacts of climate
change on surface water availability and the implications that the availability
may have for urban and agricultural interests.
Agriculture
The agriculture sector is primarily focused on issues associated with
national and regional agricultural production and economic implications.
The assessment team will consider the financial vulnerability of farmers
and farming regions, coping strategies that may be utilized to manage
the impact of climate change, and possible impacts of climate change on
environmental factors. Some of these potential changes that will be examined
are soil erosion, wildlife habitat, livestock waste, and agricultural
chemicals. Finally, the assessment will examine the impact of the international
agricultural market in the context of climate change.
Coastal Areas and Marine Resources
The assessment team is focusing on potential climate impacts within the
broad coastal zone. These include: sea-level rise and impacts such as
coastline erosion or infrastructure damage; changes in freshwater delivery,
including the impacts on salinity and nutrient loading; the intensity
and frequency of coastal storms; ocean currents; and ocean temperatures.
Models will be used to project sea-level changes and other coastal phenomena.
Logical inferences and case-studies based on observations of climatic
variability impacts may be used when climate models do not effectively
address important variables. Outside input will be sought through regional
interactions, review activities, and through brochures to interested parties.
Forests
The forests sector will concentrate on potential physical and chemical
atmospheric changes and the related impacts of socio-economic shifts on
forest structure and function. Specifically, this sector will look at
forest productivity, forest tree diversity, forest carbon sequestration,
and forest hydrologic change. Experimental literature, derived data, and
model simulations will be incorporated into the analysis. The assessment
team will develop alternate impact projections and adaptation strategies.
Continental-scale models will be used as the basis for the assessment.
When more detailed regional models of forest response exist, comparisons
between regional and continental predictions will be conducted. Drafts
will be placed on the web site for comments.
Human Health
The assessment team is concerned with identifying at-risk populations.
As such, this sector is focusing on the possible implications of climate
change on health, the provision of health care, and health-related services.
The specific vulnerabilities due to heat stress, respiratory
disease, vector-borne disease, and water-borne/water-mediated diseases
will be the target of the analysis. The assessment team will apply scientific
literature, agency reports/contacts, ongoing research, and limited models
to assess the potential vulnerabilities in human health. A general analysis
and regional case studies will be completed.
Water Resources
The water resources sector is focusing on water quality and human health,
extreme events, ecosystem function and health, water management and socio-economic
impacts, water use/quantity/resources. All of these issues will be analyzed
in the context of how potential climate change impacts may be related
to other stresses. The assessment process is being incorporated with professional
review through the auspices of a special symposium and journal issue of
the American Water Resources Association. Stakeholders from the regions
and other sectors attended a Water Workshop in Palm Beach, Florida from
September 14-16 where they identified cross-cutting issues and developed
assessment priorities. |
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