The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is pleased to offer this new bimonthly newsletter that will cover topics related to the U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change for the United States. The newsletter will be hosted on the USGCRP web site, and will also be made available in hard-copy form to agencies and to regional and sectoral team leaders for distribution to interested stakeholders. Topics that will be covered include synthesis team activities; sectoral plans and accomplishments; regional workshop plans and post-workshop analysis and assessment activities; and related news items from federal agencies and other stakeholders. Your feedback and article submissions are welcome.

National Assessment Overview

The U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change for the United States will be conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program, which is coordination mechanism for participation of federal agencies in global change research. The focus of the National Assessment will be on what is known about the potential consequences of climate variability and change for the United States over the next 25-30 years (roughly one generation) and also over the next 100 years, seeking to analyze and evaluate consequences for the environment, economy, and society. The assessment, which is called for in the "Global Change Research Act of 1990", will focus on the issues of most importance to the United States in the context of other pressures on the public, the environment, and the Nation's resources. Activities have been established to assess the risks and opportunities for the United States--its people, its environment, and its economy--associated with climate variability and climate change.

Fundamental questions that are to be addressed through the assessment include:

• What are the current environmental stresses and issues for the United States that form the backdrop for potential additional impacts of climate variability and change?
• How might climate variability and change exacerbate or ameliorate existing problems or introduce new stresses or opportunities?
• What coping options exist that can build resilience to current environmental stresses, and also possibly lessen the detrimental impacts of climate change?
• What are the priority research and information needs (near- and long-term) that must be met to help policy makers to reach wise decisions related to climate variability and change?

The national assessment has three components: a national synthesis, regional assessments, and sectoral analyses. The national synthesis report will be both synthesis and summary of sectoral and regional analyses, studies, and workshops combined with additional quantitative analysis to provide an integrated national perspective on the consequences and implications of climate change and variability for the United States. The sectoral analyses will consider potential consequences on major economic sectors such as agriculture and forestry; environmental sectors such as the coastal zone; and societal sectors such as human health and water resources. These analyses will be national in scope. The regional analyses will characterize potential consequences of climate variability and change on about twenty geographic regions covering the United States, focusing on issues affecting people where they live.

Specific responsibilities have been defined for oversight of the components of the national assessment and for coordination activities. A federally chartered advisory committee known as the National Assessment Synthesis Team will provide overall intellectual oversight of the national assessment process and has responsibility for the development of the Synthesis Report. The synthesis team members are drawn from academia, government, and the private sector. The interagency National Assessment Working Group under the auspices of the USGCRP has lead responsibility for organizing and sponsoring the sectoral analyses and oversight and coordination responsibilities for the regional analyses. The National Assessment Coordination Office has been established to facilitate coordination of the entire national assessment process. The regional, sectoral, and national synthesis reports are targeted for completion by January 1, 2000 and are intended to serve as part of the U.S. contribution to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

For more information:

See the Web site or contact: US Climate Change Science Program / US Global Change Research Program, Suite 250, 1717 Pennsylvania Ave, NW, Washington, DC 20006. Tel: +1 202 223 6262. Fax: +1 202 223 3065. Email: information@usgcrp.gov.