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HAB Ecological Forecasting

The variety of HAB species, their broad geographic distribution, and the breadth of their impact on different ecosystem components create complex resource management issues that often require complex, integrative approaches to address them. Ecological forecasts are one type of integrative HAB research product that can assist coastal managers in better managing our resources.

HAB forecasts vary in function and complexity depending on the issue of concern and the data available. Forecasting models can assess HAB probability or project HAB movement (which can affect beach or shellfish closures), or they can be used to identify bloom sources (e.g., seed beds, eddies), “bloom triggers” (e.g., nutrients, water stratification), factors contributing to bloom decline (e.g., predation, water mixing), or factors that control bloom toxicity (e.g., cell density, environmental cues, toxin transfer through the food chain). The most complex HAB forecasting models are built from fundamental knowledge of biological, chemical, and physical dynamics in specific ecosystems and depend upon integration of that knowledge with data from various sources, which can include satellite imagery, monitoring partnerships, and in situ observations.

Below are two examples of NOAA funded research contributing to the development of regional HAB forecasts. For more information on CSCOR's HAB research programs click here.

Alexandrium in the Gulf of Maine

A decade of NOAA funded research on Alexandrium in the Gulf of Maine has resulted in coupled biological/physical models that can forecast where and when a toxic bloom will spread, giving state officials early warning of an approaching bloom so they can mitigate impacts on the public and the economy. ECOHAB research products, including fundamental knowledge of Alexandrium ecology and new molecular methods for detecting and mapping Alexandrium in almost real time, are critical for modeling Alexandrium population dynamics.  Operational demonstrations of the utility of these new detection methods and biological/physical models occurred during blooms in the fall of 2004, spring of 2005, and in spring of 2006 . Click here to see an article in WHOI's Oceanus magazine on the model.

For more about related modeling efforts and science planning in the Gulf of Maine, follow these links:

Pseudo-nitzschia in the Pacific Northwest

A long term ECOHAB project goal in the Pacific Northwest is to develop a mechanistic basis for forecasting blooms of the toxic diatom, Pseudo-nitzschia . Researchers in this region are testing the hypothesis that Pseudo-nitzschia events affecting Olympic coastal communities are largely caused by toxic Pseudo-nitzschia sp. growing in the vicinity of the Juan de Fuca eddy and being subsequently transported to nearshore waters by storms. Investigators are looking at the variability of this eddy (size, location, intensity) and at the timing and frequency of storms with respect to presence of the Pseudo-nitzschia sp. Results will benefit coastal managers by providing insights into possible predictors of toxic Pseudo-nitzschia and by helping identify oceanic/atmospheric conditions favorable for the transport of toxic Pseudo-nitzschia onshore where it frequently is transferred up the food chain impacting higher order marine mammals and humans.

Karenia brevis in the Gulf of Mexico

NOAA's HAB Forecasting System in the Gulf of Mexico integrates satellite imagery, field observations, and buoy data to provide information on the location, extent, and potential for development or movement of harmful algal blooms in the Gulf of Mexico. The NOAA HAB Bulletin is distributed twice weekly to the management community, allowing early warnings to limit public exposure and to more effectively target sampling. The Bulletin is a collaborative effort of NOAA Center for Coastal Monitoring and Assessment, NOAA CoastWatch, and NOAA Coastal Services Center and is operational in NOAA's Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS). In addition, several years of research supported by the ECOHAB Program helped to develop this HAB forecasting system and have produced an in-water sensor that can detect the Florida red tides and is used as a supplemental source of data. The MERHAB Program has supported the State of Florida to collect monitoring data used to ground truth the operational HAB Bulletin in Florida. MERHAB has also sponsored efforts to adapt and expand the HAB Bulletin into Texas waters.