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Probabilistic Safety Analysis Procedures Guide
(NUREG/CR-2815)
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Publication Information
Manuscript Completed: September 1983
Date Published: January 1984
Prepared by
I. A. Papazoglou, R. A. Bari, A. J. Buslik, R. E. Hall, D.. Ilberg,
P. K. Samanta, T. Teichmann, R. W. Youngblood, Brookhaven National Laboratory
A. EI-Bassioni, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
J. Fragola, E. Lofgren, Science Applications, Inc.
W. Vesely, Battelle Columbus Laboratories
Department of Nuclear Energy Brookhaven National Laboratory
Upton, NY 11973
Prepared for
Division of Safety Technology
Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
Washington, D.C. 20555
NRC FIN A3382
Availability
Notice
Abstract
A procedures guide for the performance of probabilistic safety assessment has been prepared for interim use in the Nuclear Regulatory Commission programs. It will be revised as comments are received, and as experience is gained from its use. The probabilistic safety assessment studies performed are
intended to produce probabilistic predictive models that can be used and extended
by the utilities and by NRC to sharpen the focus of inquiries into a
range of issues affecting reactor safety. This guide addresses the determination
of the probability (per year) of core damage resulting from accident
initiators internal to the plant and from loss of offsite electric
power. The scope includes analyses of problem-solving (cognitive) human errors,
a determination of importance of the various core damage accident
sequences, and an explicit treatment and display of uncertainties for the key
accident sequences. Ultimately, the guide will be augmented to include the
plant-specific analysis of in-plant processes (i.e., containment performance)
and the risk associated with external accident initiators, as consensus is developed
regarding suitable methodologies in these areas. This guide provides the structure of a probabilistic safety study to be performed, and indicates what products of the study are essential for regulatory decision making. Methodology is treated in the guide only to the extent necessary to indicate the range of methods which is acceptable; ample reference is given to alternative methodologies which may be utilized in the performance of the study.
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